What we do is essentially meaningless.

I mean, between Sully, Mullet and I, I would guess we watch something like 150 baseball games a year each, at an average time of 3 hours. That’s 1350 hours. 56 days. Just watching baseball. Then, due to our obsessive collective natures, we discuss it, read about it, poke and prod it. We write on message board or blogs (heh). Basically, this form of entertainment consumes huge portions of our lives. I think baseball causes the most amount of obsession this side of Fall Out Boy. Beisbol turns us into 14-year-old brooding girls that think that Peter Wentz “gets us”.

Anyway, once in a while, you get a game like this. The trade deadline came and went with more innuendo and cock-blocks than you and your buddies seeing the hot girl with ugly friends. The tenor of fans on the internet and in the media tended to be a bit dour…no re-enforcements were coming.

David Wells laid a stinker and was pulled in the fifth after allowing two home runs to Casey Blake (different at bats). With Peralta at first, and the Sox down two, tomorrow’s scheduled starter Kyle Snyder came in to pretty much keep the Indians in the double digits. Snyder answered with 4.3 innings of one hit, six strike out ball.

But this game can be boiled down to one singular act by a man that is bordering on super human at this point.

Before David Ortiz hit his 1oth career walk off home run (including playoffs), I was talking to Sully online, lamenting the home town team. He was a little bit more pessimistic than I was (which is generally a reversal), but we agreed that things didn’t look great for the Red Sox through the scheduling buzz-saw that’s coming in August.

So, as the game started going into the late innings, the maligned Indians bullpen shut down an offense that had scored 6 runs in the first 4 innings. Sully and I were talking about the quality of the Red Sox offense against contenders like the Twins and the Angels…basically, we were just settled into a malaise about Boston’s chances. The Indians closer Fausto Carmona comes in and surrenders a single to Alex Cora. Then Kevin Youkilis drew a walk in a 7-pitch at bat. After the obligatory Mark Loretta pop up (by the way, not bunting is the absolute right call there…they would just walk Ortiz with one out, and Manny is as prone to GIDP as he is to hit a slam), David Ortiz stalked the plate.

There is not one person I know that didn’t expect the home run that followed. Which brings me to what I was talking about at the beginning. From mid-2003 until now, we’ve been watching the most exciting hitter in Boston since probably Ted Williams. He’s never been the best hitter on the team (usually reserved for Manny Ramirez) and he’s not the best DH in baseball (Travis Hafner), but there aren’t many people out there that don’t have a feeling about David Ortiz at bats. He inspires joy/terror that is almost unheard of for watching a forum of entertainment.

Players like David Ortiz (and David Wright/Ichiro and guys like that) are what makes the 18 days I spent of my year watching baseball seem too short.

The Red Sox have done nothing and since baseball fandom is such that you want your team to do its best to win all the time, at all costs, that the deadline has come and gone more or less without activity feels disappointing. The Sox came into today with a .5 game lead in the AL East, and calls for the sort of blockbuster that netted the Sox Orlando Cabrera in 2004 could be heard throughout Red Sox Nation.

Deadline day took on increased significance this year, as the last month of the season has made it clear as day that this Sox team, as it currently stood this morning, is merely one of a bunch of good teams. Clearly inferior to Minnesota, Detroit, the Los Angeles Angels and, after the Abreu/Lidle deal, the Yanks, Boston surely would need to do something to ensure themselves a good chance of making the playoffs in the bloodbath known as the 2006 American League. The Red Sox found themselves this morning more on par with the likes of Cleveland, Toronto, Oakland, the White Sox and Rangers – good teams all, but that clear next level down. A marquee acquisition could potentially have elevated them to that next level.

A deal never materialized. There was talk of Andruw Jones and Jake Peavy and Julio Lugo and Kip Wells and Roger Clemens and Dontrelle Willis and any other name that any ol’ rumor floater felt comfortable tossing out there. From the Boston side of things, and as it should be, seemingly nobody was off limits. Mike Lowell’s name came up and so did Mark Loretta’s. There was talk of the Sox admitting defeat just months after both signing and extending Coco Crisp and packaging the disappointing center fielder for an upgrade elsewhere. But when it came time to try and hammer out a deal, to send along the appropriate talent in order to score an improvement, Boston’s brass decided to call off the dogs and go with what they got.

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In the days and weeks leading up to the trade deadline, teams evaluate what they have, where they need upgrades, and what possible solutions exist to address their shortcomings. The Sox displayed plenty of chinks in the armor over the course of this evaluation period. They had a near dead-even run differential for the month, and the problem areas were clear. Here are some OPS figures for five everyday players in Boston’s lineup for the month:

Trot Nixon: .519
Mark Loretta: .629
Coco Crisp: .643
Kevin Youkilis: .669
Mike Lowell: .808 (but with a .297 on-base)

On the pitching side of things, only Jon Lester pitched decently while Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett fell short of expectations. There could no expectations for the hurlers asked to fill in the four and five slots in the rotation.

So the question became, where do the Sox need improvement, and how can they attain it at a price that makes sense for both the short-term and long-term welfare of the club? Since we now know that the deadline has passed, here is where things stand.

Coco Crisp has stunk all season but the Sox do not have a viable alternative to replace him. He’s in there, will play everyday and the Sox will just have to hope he chips in with production that approximates what he was able to do with the Tribe. He’s better than this, and we all need to hope he starts to show it.

Kevin Youkilis, though probably not the player he we hoped he might be in June, is not this bad either. I expect him to improve and settle into a perfectly acceptable .285/.380/.450 type of player. Again, the Sox do not have an alternative here. They will live or die with Youk.

Mike Lowell, given his stellar defensive play, hasn’t really been a problem at any point this season – even when he has entered into prolonged hitting slumps. Still, it’s not exactly pie-in-the-sky to hope he improves upon July for the rest of the year.

The Sox have a decision to make at second base. Mark Loretta sucked all of July, was acceptable in June, lights out in May and sucked hard in April. He hasn’t been much of a defensive player all season long. All told, he probably slots in somewhere between average and replacement level – a top-30 second baseman for sure but not doing a whole lot to help you win ballgames. There is an alternative here, albeit a ballsy one, that would provide at worst a lateral move and at best a significant upgrade. After a slow start and a solid June in which he hit .324/.380/.463 for Pawtucket, Dustin Pedroia hit .370/.459/.533 for the month of July. He’s ready, and the Sox have a need. A call to Pedroia would go a long way to convince me that in deciding not to make a trade, the Sox did not punt the season but rather determined that the names available were not worth the cost.

It has just been announced that Trot Nixon will go on the Disabled List and sad though it may be for the denizens of Nixon lovers, this is a great thing for the team’s fortunes. Wily Mo Pena has hit .320/.379/.484 this season and has proven to be an everyday caliber player over the course of his career. He will get a shot now, and no matter how badly he falls on his face, he won’t fall short of Nixon’s July production. He can’t. It would be nearly impossible.

On the pitching side of things, tonight will tell us a lot. If David Wells can turn in a quality start against a great hitting Tribe team, there will be real cause for optimism. The long-range plan for the starting pitching will take something of a prayer, but not an altogether unrealistic scenario. Wells steps in and takes his regular turn for the rest of the year, Tim Wakefield comes back healthy in a few weeks and the Sox have to just withstand three or four more Kyle Snyder starts. Obviously, Boomer’s and Wake’s health will determine a lot the rest of the way.

___________________________

The decision to forego a trade was certainly a reasonable one. After all, with so many teams playing so well in the AL, even the biggest possible blockbuster would have guaranteed nothing in the short-term – not with the Angels, Twins, Yankees and Tigers trucking along. Counterintuitive though it may be, in a year like this that is so competitive, it is better to stand pat. A costly upgrade only marginally improves a team’s chances because so many other teams remain in the hunt. Still, in Dustin Pedroia, Wily Mo Pena, David Wells and Tim Wakefield, the Sox have opportunities to upgrade over the course of the coming weeks. If these four can provide meaningful contribution, the Sox will battle it out for the post-season and once in, could very well make noise. And if they fall short, I would remind Sox fans of two things: one, that Boston is very well-positioned for the long-term and two, that qualifying for the playoffs is not our God-given birthright. Winning 91 or 92 games and giving it another crack in 2007 would not mean the end of the world.

But we’ll worry about that only when we have to. Tonight, the ball’s in Boomer’s court as the rest of the season kicks off.

The Angels outscored the Sox by 11 runs this weekend, capping off the series with a 10-4 win. The Sox and Angels threw their best at one another this weekend, and Boston lost badly.

No sense drawing grandiose conclusions and doing something silly because of one weekend but certainly the trade the Yankees pulled off yesterday, acquiring Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle for four Minor League prospects (none of whom named Hughes or Duncan), should make the Sox think long and hard about what they are going to do. The Bombers are a lot better this morning than they were when I woke up yesterday.

Oh and wouldn’t it be great if Trot Nixon could keep his hustling, dirt-dog ass on the field? If only he had Manny Ramirez’s desire, ability to stay in shape and willingness to play through pain to help his ‘mates out.

A terrific win. The Red Sox were coming off a deflating loss, facing a fantastic pitcher who had never lost in his Big League career, fell behind by two runs early and came back to steal a game against a foe that has been one of baseball’s very best over the last month.

Tomorrow night should offer up another doozey. Curt Schilling, rock solid all season long, faces another one of the American League’s very best in John Lackey.

A totally predictable outcome, no? Dan Haren, an excellent young starter, wanting to avenge his crappy Fenway start on July 15…Kyle Snyder starting for the Sox…Oakland looking to salvage the final game of a critical series…etc. There’s just not that much to talk about.

The one thing that is worth mentioning is that you wonder if the front office won’t feel a little more pressure to pull something off at the deadline. Here’s where I come down on that subject. If you can be reasonably confident that Tim Wakefield and David Wells can combine for at least 15 starts from here on in, you stand pat. If Roger Clemens is available at a reasonable price, yeah, you pull the trigger. But with Omar and the Mets in need of a starter and so many teams still in the hunt, this is shaping up to be the ultimate seller’s market.

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So the Sox lost a game we all thought they might and the trade season has been pretty quiet thus far. We are coming to the close of July and so I thought it might be fun just to sort of bullet-point some of the thingss catching my eye around baseball.

* Is the bloom coming off of Bronson Arroyo’s National League rose? His 5.45 July ERA suggests that it just may be.

* Justin Morneau: .313/.359/.597 - Minnesota’s going to win the WC by at least five games.

* A couple of Padres are staying classy since the All-Star Break:

Mike Cameron: .298/.365/.702
Adrian Gonzalez: .464/.500/.893

* Speaking of Gonzalez, Jon Daniels isn’t looking too hot in light of the deal that sent Chris Young (118 IP, 3.64 ERA and 8.42 K/9) along with Gonzalez for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka (46 combined IP). Worse, Young and Gonzalez are a combined 13 years younger than the two players Texas received back.

* The White Sox are finishing in 4th place next season. They’re relying on aging players without much help coming down the pike, and they are in one hell of a good division.

* Jason Giambi and Alex Rodriguez spear-headed New York’s most emotional victory of the season last night. Was it wrong of me to feel a little happy for those two? Check out Steven Goldman’s gem on the absurd treatment of Alex Rodriguez.

* How frustrating is A.J. Burnett? Lights out when at his best, and like this when he’s not.

* Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Jonathan Papelbon - Wow! Best rookie class of pitchers ever?

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What a weekend series between the Sox and Halos at Fenway we have coming up; Jon Lester and Kelvim Escobar dish up a little appetizer on Friday night before two marquee match-ups on Saturday (Josh Beckett v. Jered Weaver) and Sunday (Curt Schilling v. John Lackey).

Save Saturday, and really there’s no shame in being shut down by Felix Hernandez, Boston brought their bats out west - a welcome sight after scoring 28 runs in their first eight games after the All Star Break (all home games to boot). The Sox have scored 40 runs in their first five games of this West Coast swing. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz have led the way, while Jason Varitek and Kevin Youkilis have each enjoyed mini-resurgences.

Last night was particularly encouraging because Trot Nixon homered, finally notching an extra base hit this month and in the process increasing his July slugging percentage from .183 to .242. Look out world! Neither starter Jason Windsor nor relievers Kirk Saarloos, Justin Duchscherer and Brad Halsey had much success thwarting Boston’s offensive attack. It was consistent and unrelenting, with the highlight coming in the six-run eighth. The Sox sent 11 men to the plate in the inning and any doubt about the game’s outcome that remained going into the eighth, was gone.

For his part, Curt Schilling was unspectacular but solid. He allowed seven base-runners in six innings of work (and just one extra-base hit) but only struck out three. The bullpen came on and did a good enough job. Is anyone better than Rudy Seanez with an eight-run lead?

The offensive resurgence is not something that will be a luxury down the stretch, nor will solid starting pitching and good relief work. This is one hell of an American League dogfight the Sox are going to find themselves in over the next couple of months. As I alluded to yesterday, the Minnesota Twins are pretty clearly baseball’s best team at the moment, the Angels have been even better than them for about three weeks now, these A’s aren’t going anywhere, someone forgot to tell the Tigers they’re a fluke, the White Sox are the defending champs, the Blue Jays keep winning and the Yankees have another couple of runs in them - trust me. The bar has been raised in the Junior Circuit, and Boston will need to play at an elite level, better than they’ve played in any other playoff drive of this era of good Red Sox feelings (1999-2006), just to qualify for post-season play.

Today, Kyle Snyder will try and keep the Sox in the game against Dan Haren - a hurler the Sox were able to touch up at Fenway 11 days ago. Day-ball - 3:35 start.

A nice win - and one I didn’t last very long watching.

- Ryan Brodeur at Over the Monster thinks Jason Varitek and Josh Beckett’s collaboaration was the key.

- Edes recap.

- David Wells is getting there.

- The Twins scare the shit out of me.

- Jeff Francis had a career night.

Look, I understand that Mike Timlin has had some success against Richie Sexson and I also realize that he had only thrown 13 pitches. But Jonathan Papelbon has to come into that game in the bottom of the 9th, and I’ll tell you why.

J.J. Putz is one of baseball’s very best relief pitchers. The home run that Jason Varitek hit off of him in the top of the 9th was only the second four-bagger he has allowed in 46 appearences. After Varitek’s heroics and the game was tied, the Red Sox were in the driver’s seat. With Putz already taxed an inning and Rafael Soriano unavailable, the Sox could essentially go Papelbon vs. Putz and then leave Papelbon in for at least an extra inning beyond Putz should the game go that long. The Red Sox, averaging over 5.5 runs per game, score at least once every two innings and so if you assume that Papelbon can go two, maybe three scoreless innings against the free-swinging Mariners, then the question becomes can we score one run in the next two or three innings?

Instead, Francona probably thought along these lines. “Timlin has only thrown 13 pitches, he owns Richie Sexson and who do we have left if we don’t score while Paps is on the hill if I go to him this early? I need more out of Timlin.” It’s the type of thinking that doesn’t even allow you to get to the 10th inning.

Here is what he should have been thinking the very second the top of the 9th ended. “Putz has already thrown one inning and 18 pitches, my offense is very good, theirs sucks and I have a rested reliever available that hasn’t allowed a run in 41 of his 44 outings this season. There’s no chance we’re not winning this game.”

But hey, Papelbon is really, really rested now. Onto Oakland…

The Red Sox looked pretty crappy coming off the All-Star Break last weekend and although there were some encouraging signs over the course of this week, I am not sure a series of close wins against the Royals and a sloppy victory against Texas did much to change that. The wins were nice but the Sox were not playing the sort of baseball that we would all like to see them playing.

Last night was different. The Red Sox got a decent outing from Kyle Snyder, some mostly solid bullpen work and banged out five home runs en route to a 9-4 victory that has to rank among the most complete efforts Boston has turned in all season long. I think I will take the opportunity to mention the five home run hitters and say a little piece about each one.

David Ortiz: After a brief slow-down in June, he is back locked and loaded and looking as damn fierce at the plate as any time I can remember as a Red Sox. His .309/.427/.809 July line is just absurd and with 33 home runs now on the season, one has to wonder what the end total might look like. Should be a fun side-story to keep an eye on down the stretch.

Alex Gonzalez: A punchline in April and May and an honest-to-goodness, bona fide superstar ever since. He has been one of the very best shortstops defensively all season long, and has posted a .896 and .910 OPS in June and July respectively. Let me say it again. For darn close to two months now, Alex Gonzalex has been playing like nothing short of a superstar.

Jason Varitek: He has been bad this year. Bad on a stand-alone basis, catastrophic when you start thinking about the additional $24 million or so the Red Sox owe this guy. We all knew this was coming - mid-30’s catchers regress after all - but I didn’t think it would happen this soon and I didn’t think it would happen this precipitously. Fortunately for the Red Sox, most other teams employ shitty catchers too so while Varitek has been bad, he is only marginally worse than the American League catchers not named Joe Mauer and Ramon Hernandez. I still have hopes for Varitek, however, and who knows - maybe his home run last night will be the start of something?

Kevin Youkilis: After leading the charge for three months, Youkilis has been the very worst regular on the team in July. The .950 on-base inflated OPS version of Youk may have been too much to ask all along but this .600 OPS business we have been witnessing is altogether temporary. Maybe fatigue has set in a bit - he hasn’t played this much baseball ever in his life - or maybe it was just inevitable mean reversion for a good but not great player. Whatever has been the cause, I look forward to Kevin regaining that solid stroke and tremendous approach that made him one of the AL’s very best players through June (he was 2-4 with a HR and a walk last night). To his credit, Youkilis has not altered his patient ways at the plate one bit. He still sees as many pitches as any other hitter in the AL, just as he had when the going wasn’t so tough.

Manny Ramirez: Having an MVP caliber season and nobody really feels like talking about it. I love David Ortiz and boy has he provided me with some happy moments as a Boston Red Sox fan but Manny has been significantly better than Papi this season.

Papi: .277/.388/.605
Manny: .312/.434/.617

Manny’s having one of the very best seasons of his career this year and it’s time some people took notice.

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Kason Gabbard makes his Major League debut later on this afternoon for the Red Sox. He will oppose Felix Hernandez. Gabbard has been tremendous in Portland this season and although he got a little roughed up in his five starts with Pawtucket, his peripherals remained solid. Safeco Field and a team going with Carl Everett as its Designated Hitter sounds like a nice way to dip your toe into the Major League waters.

A great day all around at the Fens. Josh Beckett twirls his best start of the year and Terry Francona mentions in passing that Theo Epstein and the Red Sox brass had extended Beckett for another three guaranteed years the evening before. I have voiced my frustrations with Beckett and certainly do not hold as gospel truth that “Beckett’s best days are ahead of him” as Theo Epstein contends. They very well may, but we have seen enough of the batting practice version of Beckett to know that he needs to sharpen both his command and mental approach if he is going to ever fulfill his abilities. That all said, when you take out his two worst starts this season you are looking at a pitcher with a 3.83 ERA and impressive strikeout figures and in a market where A.J. Burnett can pull down a guaranteed $55 million and Kevin Millwood $60 million, what is not to absolutely adore about a deal that promises, at the very most, $42 million to Beckett over the next four years?

________________

Something I always get a kick out of is when writers tend to pass off a front-office’s philosophies in over-simplified terms. For instance, a statistically oriented team slavishly looks for players with a good on-base percentage - that’s a good one. Nevermind that guys like Alex Gonzalez, Shea Hillenbrand, Jay Payton, Chris Singleton and Pokey Reese and a slew of others lacking impressive on-base figures have all played prominent roles for teams purported to operate with a statistical bent over the last few years - once the mainstream takes hold of an idea, there is no stopping the disemination of misinformation. The truth of course is that these teams try and determine some sort of net productivity factoring on-base and slugging, speed, defensive capabilities and personality to try and help them determine how many wins a given player will add (or subtract) from the bottom line.

Another such misconception is that the Red Sox are blindly devoted to their prospects. In an otherwise solid piece, Tony Mazz of the Herald offers this bit up:

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: If you think Epstein is going to make a major deal in the next two weeks, you haven’t the slightest clue. For the last few years, Red Sox officials have sounded like overzealous parents when talking about their kids. Now the boys are about to become men and the Sox are not about to cut bait.

Maybe Tony forgot about Anibal Sanchez (3.41 ERA in four Big League starts) and Hanley Ramirez (4th among NL shortstops in OPS)? Or Freddy Sanchez (leading the NL in batting average)? I am not suggesting that any of these deals were necessarily bad at the time but what these names do show is that the Red Sox are in no way afraid to pull the trigger on a deal involving talented prospects if they think it will improve their club. Maybe the Red Sox will not make a mjaor deal - although now I am almost rooting for one just so Mazz will (again) look stupid. But it won’t be because they are afraid to part ways with Craig Hansen or Manny Delcarmen or Abe Alvarez or David Murphy. It will be because they do not perceive that they will be making a move in the best interests of the Boston Red Sox.

If a reassuring start like the one Jon Lester turned in last night wasn’t exactly what the doctor ordered, I am not sure what was. It would be easy to point to the Royals’ ineptitude and just sort of brush the start off as more a product of the competition and less an indication of an uptick in the quality of Lester’s output. But for the month of July, the Royals have been turning things around a bit. Even factoring last night’s shutout, the Royals are tied with the Angels for the most runs scored this month with 86. Mark Teahen has been doing his best Carlos Beltran imitation, while Tony Graffanino, Mark Grudzielanek, Matt Stairs and even our old pal Doug Mientkiewicz have been hot as well. David Dejesus’s return from injury has also benefitted Kansas City.

So cast the pessimism aside for a day. Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon combined for a one-hit shutout against a team that had been one of the best hitting ones in all of the American League for about three weeks running. Let’s try not to think about the scorching Yankees or Wakefield or Clement or Wells or Snyder or Johnson or any of our other worries. Just enjoy a good win and get ready for some day-ball. Word is, Wily Mo is going to return.

I haven’t really been sweating this rough patch too much because over the course of it three players that I believe will come around have been awful - Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis and Trot Nixon. And just as I am reluctant to toss in the towel on this bunch when they’re scuffling, I am not going to get too excited when a 1-run win over the AL’s worst team requires a dramatic, 3-run home run from the light-hitting back-up catcher.

It was a fun win, one I enjoyed watching but I’ll feel better when the bats get going again. This offense has functioned so well in 2006 because of the stellar seasons being turned in by some of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez’s supporting cast. Boston will need three of Lowell, Youkilis, Nixon, Jason Varitek and Coco Crisp to be firing on all cylinders if they are going to qualify for post-season in the compeitive American League.

You know, he can dance if he wants to…

It’s been now what, four days, since the Worst Trade Ever in the Last Ten Years (this is a Steve Phillips proclamation) hath been executed by the men that occupy the Big Chairs in Cincinnati and Washington.

Usually, after a period of a few days when seemingly lopsided trades come down the pipe, the outrage dies down and there are a few people that come out on the other side. Case in point…it took about 2 days for the balance of the Nomar trade to come out a little bit. However, the thoughts of this trade have mainly stayed along the lines of “Cincy blew it, and should be contracted.” Or at the very least, Wayne Krivsky should be fired, and harvested for his organs. Except his brain. That has no use to anyone.

As a refresher, he was the trade:
To Washington:
Felipe Lopez
Austin Kearns
Ryan Wagner

To Cincinnati:
Gary Majewski
Bill Bray
Royce Clayton
Brenden Harris
Daryl Thompson

For the sake of simplicity and the fact I don’t want to write a whole lot, I’m going to strip out Harris and Thompson from the discussion…these guys are roster filler at this point. I’m also going to not really talk about Ryan Wagner much.

The principles of the trade are Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, Ryan Wagner, Royce Clayton, Gary Majewski, and Bill Bray. Ryan Wagner started this trend of drafting high ceiling, close-to-the-majors college closers high and rushing them through the system. Also, he’s been the worst, having no major league success and currently swearing at guys like Chad Cordero, Huston Street and Craig Hansen. “What makes them so good?” asks Wagner.

I’m going to make a quick assumption that Cincy was at the end of their rope with Wagner. I mean, despite the fact he was supposed to be piling up various relief accolades, he currently is getting turked by AAA hitters (ERA: 6.23).

That leaves Kearns, and Lopez going to the Nationals and Clayton, Majewski, and Bray coming to Queen City.

I’m going to change gears here for a second and try to figure out why the Reds made this trade at all. Here is what I came up with:
1. Cincinnati has a chance of winning a playoff spot, pretty much for the first time since 1999.
2. Their bullpen, park adjusted, was the 15th best in the National League.
3. The Cardinals have no starting pitching past Chris Carpenter.
4. The Reds offense, also park adjusted, has the 6th best offense in the National League.
5. The Cincinnati defense isn’t very good

Now, normally, trades are looked at in a vacuum. It’s A+B for C+D. This isn’t the case. Trades are mechanisms that really affect way more things on the team than just the principles. Case in point: The Reds didn’t just trade Kearns, they opened up the right field position, which means they needed to have a replacement. This is also me stating the obvious.

Now to the nitty-gritty. Felipe Lopez is the best player in the trade. He plays an up-the-middle position, and he hits well at it. However, he’s 26, and he’s regressed from his 2005 level. It’s never a good sign to see your 26 year old regress with the bat, even if it is a statistical blip. He’s eligible for free agency after the 2008 season, as a 28 year old.

Austin Kearns is also a 26 year old, 2008 free agent, and is a player with gobs of potential, and not enough performance to back up his perceived value. Gary Majewski is also 26, but he won’t be free agent eligible until 2010, when he is a ripe 30.

Bill Bray is a lefty that John Sickles liked, and I generally take everything he writs pretty seriously. He rates as a B- in his 2006 book, which means he’s a B/B+ prospect in normal-fan talk.

Royce Clayton is pretty much famous for his inability to hit and the fact he replaced Ozzie Smith.

But here is a dirty little secret…Kearns isn’t very good. He never has been. I love looking at rate stats, because they give you a very quick snap shot at the ability of the player doing the big things that hitters need to do in order to increase scoring for his team. But there are plenty of things that the rates don’t tell you. And through out his career, Kearns has been pretty bad at these things.

[Stat Geek Out to follow]Take this year for example. His pre-trade line is 274/351/492, which is good. Except he’s a right fielder. They should be hitting better. Next is the park, which inflates his value 2.6%. He grounds into double plays every 10.4 times he has the opportunity too. For comparisons sake, Mike Lowell is worst on the Red Sox by doing it every 11.2 times.

Now, his batting with runners on base, and scoring position actually cost the Reds 3.6 runs. He strikes out in 23% of his plate appearances, which isn’t terrible, but it’s coupled with a 10.2% walk rate. Add all this together, and you have a right fielder, who should be one of the best 3 (in the National League) hitters on your team. Kearns, because of his weaknesses at the small stuff, actually has the same value offensively as Felipe Lopez does, who his a shortstop having a down year, and slugging 100 points less than Kearns.

The numbers? Kearns creates (park adjusted) 4.83 runs for ever 27 outs he burns up. Lopez creates 4.80.[Stat Geek Out ends]

If you read that (and I wouldn’t blame you if you took a pass), then you could be asking why there is a discrepancy as large as there is between OPS and his RC. The answer is pretty much “Because runs created measures things that are ignored by the rates.”

Anyway, now the Reds have a right fielder who is overrated by virtue of his potential, and a shortstop who can’t really field (he’s a second baseman to be). “Why not trade them?!?” asks our Men Without Hats loving GM.

Jim Bowden loves to trade, and has a couple of bullpen arms that he could move. Say there is a conversation between the two involving Washington being a seller and Cincy being a buyer. Knowing that they don’t have a good bullpen (it’s horseshit) nor a good defense, Krivsky looks for an upgrade at short (with the glove) and is willing to swallow the relatively minor offensive hit in losing Kearns and Lopez, while getting Studs for the Bullpen.

The only value Royce Clayton has is that he can get the glove on the ball better than Lopez. There is a significant offensive downgrade between the two. But their bullpen gets stabilized by Majewski (who has only two minor blemishes, his IP’s have been pretty high this year, and his control leaves him sometimes. He does keep guys from scoring though, which is pretty important for relievers) and Bray (Future LOOGY or maybe a power arm closer –Me paraphrasing John Sickels.)

That sucking sound you hear is the hole in right field of Cincinnati, no? No. Filling in now is a kind of time share, between Ryan Freel (who rates as better than Kearns, even if he’s still a below average offensive right fielder. For the sake of comparison, Freel has a 5.52 Rc/27. Sorry, I’m a nerd), and minor league hitter Chris Denorfia (he’s has a high OB% anyway). I don’t see much evidence that those two won’t be better than Kearns in 2006, and at the very least, cheaper in 2007 onward.

To sum up…I think this is a negative for the future of the Reds. They did give up the best player in the trade for a couple of relievers, who are notoriously inconsistent. However, rather than trading someone awesome (Austin Kearns), I see it more them punting on a player that is a year or two away from being an expensive fourth outfielder.

Currently, in 2006, I think the Reds do alright for themselves here. I think they could have probably gotten a better package than roster filler and Majewski/Bray, but it’s not a complete pooch screw. From what we do know right now is that the Reds are finishing off a sweep of the Rockies, are primed to make a run in a wide open Wild Card race in the National League, and are probably the front runners to grab Julio Lugo from the DRays. Though not the best trade, it’s not like the Nationals just got Scott Kazmir or
anything.

I spent some time this morning going over just how disappointing Josh Beckett has been so I am going to delve a bit into just how tremendously Curt Schilling has pitched for the Sox. Tonight he did what the great ones do - and you know I don’t get gooey like this - but he stopped the bleeding. Schilling’s best start of the 2006 season came on the very night his team has appeared most vulnerable. Coming off three consecutive losses including two of the devastingly close variety and one of the embarassing blow-out kind and with the Yankees looking as formidable as they have all season, Schilling took to the hill, threw seven strong, struck out nine and only allowed four measley base runners. It was a command performance in every respect. Before we delve further into Curt’s season, I also should note that David Ortiz and Mike Lowell were the offensive stars - when you put up seven runs, you can’t just talk about the pitching. So there, I mentioned a couple of bats. Now back to Schill.

Quietly, Curt Schilling has once again assumed his position amongst the top starting pitchers in basesball. In the American League, only a handful of guys have been better. The Twins dynamite Southpaw duo and Roy Halladay have certainly outpitched him but after that it’s tough to identify another starter in the superior Junior circuit that has been better. Interestingly, just as he has in his other spectacular seasons, Schilling is giving up home runs at a very high clip. For all the machismo and cliche-speak that Curt tends to engage in he is remarkably mature on the mound and couldn’t care less if he is taken deep for a solo shot from time to time. Homer-yielding is just an occupational hazard when you refuse to walk batters.

One of my favorite light-bulb moments of baseball understanding process was when for the first time I understood the importance of on-base percentage vis-a-vis slugging. I know I have mentioned it here before but it was put to me this way; in a given inning, a team could strike out three times and mix in a solo home run and that team would have slugged 1.000 for that frame. On the other hand, a team that posts a 1.000 on-base percentage in an inning scores ad infinitum and further, doesn’t even make an out. Now apply this principle to pitching and you start to see that even if location lapses get punished, provided you can command the strike zone for the vast majority of the time, you won’t get too hurt. Just as he did in his two best seasons, 2001 and 2002, Schilling is giving up home runs frequently and allowing other base runners infrequently. Whether it surprises you or not, whether it strikes you as counter-intuitive, it’s a winning combination.

Curt Schilling ranks 52nd in the league in slugging percentage allowed and is tied for 8th worst in baseball with 19 home runs allowed. On the other hand, he ranks sixth in all of baseball in on-base allowed and his 7.75 K/BB ratio is the best in MLB. Theo Epstein, when he took over as Red Sox GM before the 2003 season, spoke of his desire to turn the Red Sox into a player development machine and that everything started with strike zone command, both as a hitter and a pitcher. If you can exercise patience at the plate, you earn free passes, thereby making fewer outs, advancing base runners and allowing yourself to hit in more favorable counts and see better pitches to hit. If you can avoid walking batters on the mound, you make batters swing more often, get ahead in the count and make the pitches you want and ultimately, allow fewer runs - even if you give up the occasional moonshot because every hitter in the league knows you ain’t walking him. Schilling understands all of this, trusts his stuff and command to go after hitters all the time and if he gives up the occasional long-ball, he’ll be damned if it is going to force him to change the way he pitches. It’s a baseball game, not a pissing contest.

As a guy, Schilling isn’t really my cup of tea. I commend him for his charity work and think at the end of the day he is good-natured. But he seems like a relentless self-promoter. He has never met a microphone over which he did not fall head over heels. Oh and we most definitely don’t align politically. That all said, the guy is a freaking pro’s pro. He is always prepared, understands his craft and isn’t afraid of a damn thing. He’s also accountable. His dominating performance this evening isn’t really all that big of a deal to him. In Schill’s eyes, he’s paid a helluva lot of money and damn well had better step up when the team is sliding a bit. And boy did he ever step up tonight.

I don’t know if Tim Wakefield is going to be healthy enough to take on Joe Blanton tomorrow but someone is taking the hill for the Sox as they look to salvage a split against Oakland. Enjoy.

There was no bright spot, nothing to take away from this one. The Red Sox got beat bad and it’s exactly the sort of defeat that gets the sports radio airwarves buzzing and the short-sighted clamoring. But it was one game, one of 60-75 losses that we all knew back in March the Red Sox would suffer this season. It was another awful start for Josh Beckett, however, and as such I think it would be worthwhile to take a look at what we have in Beckett. Mike Lowell’s performance thus far makes it difficult to knock the rationale for the off-season deal with the Fish - it was a good one at the time and I am still unconvinced that it won’t be seen in retrospect as a good deal too. That said, it sure was difficult to watch Beckett get knocked all over Fenway Park on the same evening that Anibal Sanchez, aided by a sparkling play from Hanley Ramirez (having a fine season in his own right), outclassed Roger Clemens and the Houston Astros down in Miami.

Josh Beckett ranks 76th amongst qualified Major League starting pitchers with a 5.12 ERA. His peripherals make him look a tad better, but his 2.38 K/BB ranks him just 38th and his 7.48 K/9IP is 22nd in baseball. So his strikeout numbers are good and his K/BB figure is acceptable, why has he been so bad? The short answer is that his mistakes get absolutely hammered. He ranks 70th amongst the qualified starting pitchers list with a .798 OPS against, a remarkable figure for someone who strikes so many out. Only nine qualified starters have yielded a higher slugging percentage than Beckett’s .482 figure and he is the leader by a longshot when it comes to home runs allowed. In terms of overall value contributed, Beckett is tied with Chad Bradford (34 IP), Anthony Reyes (35 IP) and Fausto Carmona (42 IP), ranking 163rd of all MLB pitchers with an 8.8 VORP.

The numbers and some observations I have made seem to coincide. Beckett is 6′5″ and has more or less been dominant at every level up to the Major Leagues. While he has had his ups and downs as a Major League starter, he has had way more ups, and was carried off of Yankee Stadium after a World Series MVP performance at the age of 23. I think he’s developed a stubborn sense of infallibility. He can get it up to the high-90’s and has a hook that any pitcher would kill for. And yet, he gets pounded on a pretty regular basis. His last outing before this one in Chicago didn’t really bother me. Giving up home runs to Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome can happen to anybody. But Beckett tends to be done in by lesser players with some regularity as well. A quintessential example of the sort of concentration lapses that I think Beckett suffers from as a result of his raw ability came in last night’s first inning. With Mark Kotsay on at first and Nick Swisher at third with one out, Jay Payton came to the plate. Payton is an exceptional raw athlete and a decent hitter but he lacks a very mature approach. He is a hacker and should be had easily by a pitcher with Beckett’s stuff. Payton singled hard up the middle on a first pitch fastball that was a tad up and over the heart of the plate. I would submit that only that pitch could have hurt Beckett there. If you are going to start Payton with a fastball, you had better spot it. But Beckett carries himself almost as though he isn’t in the business of spotting pitches - as though his stuff is good enough to circumvent having to locate.

Beckett is learning a couple of hard lessons this year. One, that there are way better hitters in the American League than the National League, largely because one lineup spot is usually occupied by one of a team’s best hitters instead of its very worst and partly because the AL is just a lot better these days. Two, when guys hit balls hard and they travel a long way and you are still fortunate to get outs, those outs may not be at other ballparks. They may be home runs or some other form of extra base hit. Finally, the biggest lesson is simply that Major League hitters can hit anybody’s stuff. Big League pitchers disinterested in, or otherwise incapable of developing command fail. It’s that simple.

I am not sure what to make of Beckett. I know he has the ability to consistently succeed, and I think he one day will again. It may be next month, it may be in a few years but one thing I am confident of is that it will not be until he decides to show the requisite respect for the oppostion’s abilities and concentrate on sharpening his command.

I mentioned I have been out of touch of late so this article by Bruce Allen just crossed my radar. It’s one hell of a good look at the media treatment of Manny Ramirez and encompasses many of the points we have laid out here in the past like the difference between how Manny and Trot Nixon are regarded and just how freaking good Ramirez is. Allen takes on the topic in a much more eloquent and organized fashion than anything I have seen before.

Jon Lester isn’t nearly as good as people think he is (not yet anyway) and Terry Francona still game manages like a bad legion ball coach who likes to make moves for shits and giggles. God I hate pinch runners.

I will try and get back on a regular writing schedule soon. My fiancee had a bit of a health scare and required surgery so I have been tending to her.

Could be worse. We could all be Cincinnati fans today.

I am not one to talk about emotions and momentum and all that but I think this was a big win. To try and go into Chicago for a weekend set with the White Sox after coming off of a four game sweep in Tampa would have really been a tall order. Instead, they will head to Chicago looking to build upon a fantastic all-around team effort. Tim Wakefield gutted out five decent innings, Craig Hansen was effective and the lineup broke out for 12 runs. Not that I think anyone is taking it for granted but boy are we lucky to have been treated to David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez hitting in tandem over the last two and a half years or so. Over baseball’s history, there haven’t been too many pairs in the same lineup as good as these two, and they were at their best tonight. They combined for three home runs and eight RBI. Two guys upon whom the Sox rely considerably less, Doug Mirabelli and Alex Gonzalez, both chipped in to help the offense quite a bit as well.

In a tough assignment for the Red Sox youngster, Jon Lester will oppose Mark Buehrle at US Cellular on Chicago’s South Side tomorrow evening. The White Sox are just a remarkable team, and not that three games amounts to all that much, but still, this weekend should offer a pretty good barometer.

Some random snap thoughts while I mull over three straight losses at the hands of the D-Rays:

- Coco Crisp: .265/.316/.370 coming in, 0-4 tonight. Ridiculously magnificent catches aside, he kills this team regularly.

- Boy did I miss the boat on Jason Johnson. I thought it was a worthwhile flier but holy shit. He’s awful.

- Speaking of the fifth pitcher’s slot, Matt Clement had a rehab outing cut short early yesterday and David Wells is nowhere close to coming back. As much as it pains me to say it, I think a trade may be necessary. I am not saying trade an all-star for a crappy starter mind you, but if you have to give up a little something to get a decent 5th option, so be it.

- Not sure what more I have - just gotta regroup and lay a redemption beat-down tonight before the big set with the South-Siders this weekend.

In their last 17 games, the Red Sox have lost three times. They lost once when Dontrelle Willis started for the Florida Marlins and they have lost consecutively to Devil Rays’ hurlers Scott Kazmir and Casey Fossum. Notice any similarities between these three guys? They all throw with their left arm of course, and in case you haven’t noticed observationally, I’d like to point out that the Red Sox don’t hit very well against pitchers of this sort. Some data…and keep in mind that none of this is park-adjusted so the Red Sox actually will look better than they are since they play half their games in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway.

Overall AL OPS Leaders

1. Toronto: .850
2. Chicago: .824
3. Boston: .822
4. New York: .816
5. Cleveland: .813

AL OPS Leaders vs. RHP

1. Toronto: .852
2. Boston: .846
3. Chicago: .845
4. Detroit: .817
5. New York: .817

AL OPS Leaders vs. LHP

1. Toronto: .845
2. Texas: .829
3. Cleveland: .824
4. New York: .813
5. Chicago: .789
6. Kansas City: .777
7. Boston: .766
8. Tampa Bay: .765
9. Minnesota: .760

Remember, Tampa Bay and Minnesota play in environments that are far less favorable to hitters, so it is fair to say that they have hit lefties better than the Sox this year.

It’s just an interesting tidbit, and not one to worry all that much about because the American League playoff contenders do not feature too many scary southpaws. But should the Sox be fortunate to qualify for post-season play and the Minnesota Twins, and their combination of Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano somehow overtake the White Sox or Yankees for the Wild Card, look out. These Sox probably wouldn’t stand a chance.