There just isn’t much to say these days, is there?  The goalposts keep moving.  From division title hopes, to the wild card, to staying healthy, to staying freakin’ alive in the case of David Ortiz and Jon Lester. 

Anyway, one bright happening would be if the Sox can really swing George Kottaras for six starts from a 43 year-old. 

After a post-mortem of sorts on the Sox season, I’ll get focusing on MLB as a whole in the coming days.  Baseball fans People get all provincial around here and tend to forget that there are 29 teams that play home games west of Worcester but I for one am going to enjoy the remainder of what should be an exciting Major League Baseball season.

David Ortiz is sick.

That brings our lineup for the first game of the Oakland series:

Crisp CF
Cora SS
Loretta DH
Youkilis LF
Hinske RF
Lowell 3B
Lopez C
C Pena 1B
Pedroia 2B
Gabbard SP
Nice. There is not one position the Red Sox have an above average player playing. Injuries do suck, but it’s as much because they completely decimate depth as it is loss of the talent.

The Red Sox lost once again yesterday, capping off their most hapless weekend of baseball yet in 2006.  Six runs on 14 hits in three days of baseaball.  The self-entitlement crowd will kick and scream and bitch and talk about how the Sox are
“ruinin’ his/her summah” but take a look at who they had this weekend.  Better yet, take a look at who they did not have.  Manny Ramirez, Wily Mo Pena and Trot Nixon all missed time in the outfield, Alex Gonzalez and Jason Varitek in the infield.  The Sox went it without Matt Clement and Tim Wakefield in the rotation.  You look at those names, and that’s a pretty decent foundation with which to start a team.  Removing them from any one team unsurprisingly has had a decimating effect.

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Reasons not to despair too much.

Michael Bowden

Clay Buchholz

Jeff Corsaletti

Bryce Cox

Jed Lowrie (check out the August numbers)

Jacoby Ellsbury

Jay Johnson

Edgar Martinez

Brandon Moss

David Murphy

I am heading to bed in a moment, but I defy someone to tell me a worse 5-9 than Lowell, Kapler, Mirabelli, Pedroia and Cora.  Go ‘head, include the NL.

Oh and Mark Loretta is starting at 1B. 

Injuries suck.

Game story, box score.

I didn’t make it through the whole game but Josh Beckett sure was good.  Mixed his pitches, threw strikes, had a low strikeout total but an impressive result.  The only bad news was that he had to leave the game with a cut on his finger.  Hopefully his finger is a temporary health hiccup and his performance last night a sign of things to come.

This offense really plods along with Manny out, but in fairness to Jered Weaver, they faced a darn good starter last night. 

I don’t have a whole lot to offer here since I missed the game.  The Yanks lost, and the Sox are now 5.5 games back. 

At the end of action on August 24, 1978 the Red Sox enjoyed a 7.5 game lead over the Yanks.  Just sayin’…

I was mad at Shaughnessy et al yesterday.  Today I am just kinda laughing at the guy.  It is our God-given right, as Boston Red Sox fans, to cheer on and support a 95-win playoff team every season. 

Remember what Theo Epstein told us Sunday night as he stood on the Fenway lawn before Game 4 of the Carnage by Lansdowne Street: “We’re not going to change our approach and all of a sudden try to build an uberteam and all of a sudden win now at the expense of the future.”

There you have it. Let’s not win now. This should help you enjoy the remaining 36 games of 2006. Just relax and check out Dustin Pedroia’s footwork around second base. It’s not about 2006 anymore. It’s about the future.

Bruce Allen puts it best…

Dan Shaughnessy treats one and all to another sarcastic and embarrassing column written prior to last night’s game. Hope the red wine from the hotel bar was good last night Dan, after all, you are in California.

Hate to say it but if there were ever a team Terry Francona were ill suited to manage, it’s this Sox team with its thin bullpen.  I understand that Earl Weaver and Ozzie Guillen’s hypothetical love child himself couldn’t will this Sox bullpen into a useful one but I bet that volatile little fella could at least optimize.  The blueprint should be scrapped, stomped on and burned.  The Red Sox no longer have the luxury of using a closer.  They just need pitchers - pitchers capable of getting outs and pitchers capable of doing so without yielding exorbitant amounts of runs. 

Last night the Sox lost a game by one run in which Jonathan Papelbon did not pitch but Kason Gabbard did.  Papelbon saw all of two innings in the Sox weekend sweep at the hands of the Yanks. There is no excuse for not using Papelbon at all when he is rested in these types of contests.  He needs to be leaned upon down the stretch, as he is one of very few reliable pitchers that the Red Sox employ. 

Of course check out the local writers these days or flip on sports radio and guess who public enemy #1 is?  You guessed it, Manny Ramirez.  Ramirez, who is hitting .329/.445/.635 this season and is more responsible for what success the Sox have experienced this season than any of his teammates is again being called out because he disagreed with an official scorer over the weekend on a call, according to Sean McAdam.  Somehow writers are taking liberties now and assuming that his hamstring is not in fact sore but that he is just pouting.  Whatever.  Since I do not know what happened with this situation and I certainly do not know that Ramirez is not hurting, I refuse to speculate.

What I do know is that, unlike the racist, bloviating Boston mainstream press I am not going to pin the current Red Sox plight on the one guy that had the balls to show up over the weekend against the Bombers.  Ramirez hit .727/.850/1.455 against New York over the five games and was more or less the only reason Boston had even a crack at any of the games.  Oh an by the way, he ranks among MLB’s top 20 in games played over the last five seasons. 

Manny Ramirez is having one of the best seasons a Red Sox slugger has ever enjoyed and yet he has to endure this shit.  Meanwhile, media darlings Jason Varitek and Trot Nixon, when not on the disabled list, underperform, putz and stumble through 2006, each as responsible for Boston’s diappointments this season as Ramirez is the squad’s successes.  But there’s a difference between those two and Ramirez, isn’t there?  

The short version is that, since the All-Star Game, they have had two outstanding players (Manny Ortez), a good player (Jonathan Papelbon) and a couple of average ones (Curt Schilling & Mark Loretta).  The Red Sox have stunk for more than a month now, with the pitching being off-the-charts disgusting and the hitting looking better than it is thanks to the two demi-gods hitting in the middle of the order.

The more interesting question, and it’s one I think is worth looking into, is “how did we get here?”  I haven’t done the work yet so I am not prepared to answer this but I think a good, long look at some of the moves the Sox have made in assembling this team is in order.

I will be resuming brief game recaps this week and I will mix in a review of Sox moves - what was a defensible move at the time, what was avoidable and what just falls into the “shit happens” category.  Also, if the Sox slide further out of this thing, we’ll shift focus a bit to the “Beyond” portion of our “The Sox & Beyond” sub-title.  This season is shaping into an awfully interesting one and we like to pride ourselves on being baseball fans first and Sox fans second.  As such, while it won’t be as much fun without Boston involved, we won’t be going anywhere.

But we ain’t giving up yet.  The Red Sox kick off a nine-game west-coaster in Anaheim tonight.  No time like the present to turn this bitch around.

When is it fair to ask your stud 25-year old to simply step up?  He throws 97, has a hook that, say, 90% of MLB’s pitchers would kill for but what does he have to show for it?

I don’t really have any answers here and I am inclined to assume he is trying his best but man, is it so much to ask for a quality start from time to time?

I find it really hard to get overly angry when a guy the Sox were right in thinking they could depend on for quality pitching turns out to let them down time and again. 

Josh Beckett has sucked and the Sox have paid dearly.  And I guess that just sucks.

A win is a win but sheesh, talk about a game that left your head spinning. On the one hand, Jon Lester was horrible again - an ominous longer-term sign. On the other, Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis showed flashes of their early-season form - something that will not be a luxury but a necessity if Sox hurlers are going to stink up the joint three out of every five nights. To see those two hitting with pop again sure was encouraging but then the bullpen once again looked shaky and I think it might officially be time to downgrade Jonathan Papelbon from “dominant on an historic level” to merely “very good.” Still, the offense managed 11 runs with zero combined hits from David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez - another positive indicator. And so it went yesterday. I have no idea what to make of this club but for better or worse, whether you want to believe or not, here we are again - neck and neck with the Yankees and a month-and-a-half of baseball to go.

———-

A couple of interesting items from yesterday’s action. One, Angels rookie Jered Weaver leveraged his “average stuff” (just ask Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein) and shut the Yankees down over six innings yesterday, allowing three runs and three walks while striking out eight. Two, the White Sox polished off the Detroit Tigers for the sweep and in the process pulled to within 5.5 games of first place in the AL Central. This bit of news should be of interest to Red Sox fans for a few reasons. One, the White Sox sit atop the AL Wild Card standings. Two, if they continue to gain ground on Detroit, all of a sudden the Tigers become Boston and New York’s competition for the Wild Card as well - which brings us to the series set to kick off tonight at Fenway.

It was going to be important no matter what. These days, they’re all critical. But now, with five (nine?) teams competing for four playoff slots, any contest pitting two such teams takes on added importance. I won’t attempt to tell the incredible story of the Tigers turnaround- Rany Jazayerli knocked that one out of the park last week - but I will say they come intp Boston limping a bit as they’ve lost five straight. Whether that means they are vulnerable or extra hungary remains to be seen.

Nate Robertson and Josh Beckett tonight.

So I try and stand strong and put on a happy face but I would be lying if I didn’t concede that sometimes I have serious doubts about this team. The same irrational panic mode that others tend to enter into can afflict me as well. So yes, I was one of the few million or so New Enlanders you could hear simultaneously breathing a sigh of relief last night.

“These guys really can still put up some runs. They really can get some quality starting pitching from someone not named Curt Schilling. And, get this, they can do it in the same game!”

The beatdown is a staple of quality teams. About once a week, a good team overwhelms its opposition. They will get to a starter early, tear through mediocre middle relievers, and all the while simply ask a dependable starter to throw strikes and protect a wide margin. In the first half of the year, the Red Sox would do this on a regular basis. Since the All-Star Break, not so much. There was the 7-0 win at home against Oakland, the only win of a 3-1 series loss, and a 13-5 victory the following week at McAfee Stadium but really that has been about it.

Last night’s 9-2 pummeling of Baltimore was particularly encouraging for two reasons. One, it wasn’t David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez carrying the offense. Both contributed, but it was a balanced attack that led to the nine runs. Two, David Wells was very good. His stuff was not overpowering, as he only had four strikeouts and he did yield nine hits, but his trademark pinpoint accuracy allowed him to get out of innings quickly. If ever Wells were suited to pitch in front of a Boston Red Sox team, it’s this one because of its excellent defensive play. An accurate pitcher without Hall-of-Fame stuff willing to pound the zone can easily succeed in front of this Sox defense. Wells has allowed a number of hits over his last two starts, 17 in 13 innings to be exact, but he has also just walked two. More importantly, he has been better in each successive start since coming off of the DL.

Through the five game losing streak I tried to encourage people not to bail on these guys. They’re good, and had (are still in the midst of?) a rough stretch. By the same token, I am not even close to ready to declare this team back after one win against the Orioles. They are sending Jason Johnson to the hill today, the Orioles will start a resurgent Daniel Cabrera tomorrow, and then after Baltimore leaves tomorrow evening, the two best baseball teams in the world swing through town for eight games. A lot can still go wrong, but it’s nice to know the Sox still have it in them to lay one on a team the way they did last night.

____________________

It’s scoreboard watching season, so be sure to be stopping over to Bronx Banter, Yanks Fan v. Sox Fan, Exile in Wrigleyville, etc. The Yanks lost last night, Jose Contreras was excellent in a White Sox win over Detroit and A.J. Burnett had his way with the Twins as rookie phenom Matt Garza struggled in his debut.

1) Precedent

The Red Sox have made the playoffs in three consecutive seasons, and here is how things looked after the August 10th close of business in each of the last three years.

2003: The Red Sox were 68-49, 3 games back of the Yankees and leading the Wild Card by a game.

End Result: Aaron Boone Grady Little

2004: 61-50, 9.5 games back of New York and tied for the Wild Card lead.

End Result: World Series Champions

2005: 66-47, 5.5 game lead over the Yanks.

End Result: A tiebreaker loss to the Yanks for the division and a three-game sweep at the hands of the eventual champion Chicago White Sox

2006: 65-48, 3 games back of the Yankees and 2 games back of the White Sox for the Wild Card.

End Result: Who knows?

The point here of course is that there is no reason whatsoever to panic. Things look grim at the moment, with injuries and crappy performance killing Boston while the Yanks and White Sox appear to be hitting their stride. But the Sox are still very much in this thing, and I for one do not believe that the team that just stumbled through a 1-5 stretch against the dregs of the American League is the one we will see for the remainder of the season. Remember, Boston is two Jonathan Papelbon pitches away from being a game out in the AL East and tied for the Wild Card.

———————–

2) Luck Turning for Other Teams?

Francisco Liriano is out indefinitely, Jered Weaver has been human of late and Ervin Santana had to leave last night’s game after being hit with a line drive. Despite coming back strong last night, Johnny Damon has been hampered by nagging injuries and had to leave Wednesday’s game. The Red Sox are experiencing a low-point for sure, but that does not mean that their competition will not experience woes of their own. But time is of the essence, and the Sox need to be putting some wins up.

———————-

3) Pitching Coming Around?

David Wells and Jason Johnson have each looked ok in their last few outings. Curt Schilling has been solid, and even Rudy Seanez and Kyle Snyder have been contributing. The Red Sox’ worst pitchers of late have been, in fact, some of their very most talented pitchers. Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen, Josh Beckett and Mike Timlin are all guys that we can count on being better over the remainder of the year than they have been over the last few weeks. If Boomer and Jason Johnson’s respective mini-resurgences are for real, then I think that we can reasonably hope for the rest of the staff to fall into place - particularly with Tim Wakefield’s return on the horizon.

———————-

4) The Schedule

Yup, after Baltimore leaves town this weekend, the Sox have a brutal stretch. Three at home against Detroit, five at home against the Bombers, followed by three in Anaheim, Seattle and Oakland, respectively. But then the Sox then finish the season with 18 of their final 29 at home. Yes there are some challenging teams on the upcoming schedule, but in total the Red Sox play 29 of their final 49 games at Fenway Park, where they are 35-17 this season. They also have nine head-to-head tilts with New York remaining. This thing is very doable, and for the taking should the Sox be up to the task.

No real need to update yesterday’s post.

Sigh.

When you don’t have a dependable starter to speak of in your rotation, your bullpen routinely squanders leads and only three or four guys in your lineup can hit, you can no longer hope to be seeking refuge in places like Tampa Bay and Kansas City. You’re better off heading to Montgomery or Wichita to try your hand against the Biscuits or the Wranglers.

The good news, of course, is that the Red Sox are going to snap out of this. The Red Sox are not going to play .375 ball over the remainder of the season the way they have over their last 16 games. Boston has a good team, and before long, will play accordingly.

Recap from Joy of Sox and box score.

Also, here is a good summary of the Yanks/White Sox match-up last night by Vince Galloro over at Exile in Wrigleyville. The Pale Hose won a thriller.

You are going to want to check out Chadd Finn today.

Or “How I got an idea, and repeated it until it was Wikiality”

Brought to you by pre-aneurysm Peter Gammons! Now with more Bowden quotes!

Thank you for indulging me that…

In 2001, Peter Gammons wrote that Manny Ramirez is the best right handed hitter in baseball. He kept repeating this until 2003, when Manny had the worst contract in baseball history, and might start doing things like throwing feces at fans, and burning down Old North Church. Then he was back to being the best right handed hitter in baseball again, according to Ol’ Gammo.

Anyway, since the time that he first said it to now, it’s become pretty much the standard opinion that he’s the best right handed hitter in the American League at the very least.

I want to know if this is actually true.

So here is what I did…

I took a sample of great right-handed hitters that played in the 1995-2005. The list, which I got some help from Bowler in compiling, was 14 names long. Then I went on BPro (I didn’t want to compile the numbers myself. I demanded immediate satisfaction.) and used their Batting Runs Above Replacement.

I don’t love the number for a few reasons, but I used it here because:
1. It was easily found and put in the spread sheet
2. It was adjusted for all time, so a run in 96 is expressed the same as 05. Sometimes I like it when my work is done for me.

Then I cut the bottom 5 hitters, since they are relevent to the discussion.

What I got was 7 hitters that played in the whole sample, 1 hitter that played until 2000, one that debuted in 2001, and one that was done in 2004. That means in every year but 2005, we had 9 guys playing. Good enough for me.

Note: The 5 guys that were cut were Ivan Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Juan Gonzalez, and Miguel Tejada. Either their quality just wasn’t good enough in the time frame, or they didn’t hit well enough to transcend missing years. I didn’t put in McGwire because I didn’t think of him until now, but he likely would fall in to group 2 above.

The men? Manny Ramirez, Edgar Martinez, Albert Belle, Frank Thomas, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Sammy Sosa, and Derek Jeter.

Conclusion 1: Manny Ramirez has never been the best RHH in baseball for a season

Thats right. There hasn’t been one year Manny has been the best righty.

The trending chart is at the bottom of the essay, an unfortunate formatting necessity. Notice ARod in the pink.

The closest he came was in 2002, when he was one run worse than Sosa, which is insignificantly close. It makes my bolded headline look better and also true though.

In fact, Manny’s ranks against the field in this little look are…2 seconds (03 and 04, 3 3rds (99, 02, and 05), a 4th (in 01), 3 5ths (95, 97, and 00) and 2 worse (a 6th in 96, and a 7th in 98). It’s ironic that one of his worst years (2004) was one he was the 2nd best northpaw hitter. Pujols just kinda lapped the field.

Due to a balky oblique, 2006 might be the year Manny is the single season best right handed hitter in the game.

Conclusion 2: Despite the fact that he never was the best in any season, Manny has been the best right handed hitter since 1995

I’m actually surprised this is true.

But in the last 11 years, here are the total BRAR for all these guys:
Ramirez - 771
ARod - 715
Bagwell - 686
Martinez - 665
Thomas - 614
Sosa - 583
Jeter - 507
Biggio - 464
Pujols - 423
Belle - 403

But wait! the most astute of you say, how is taking the total fair to Pujols, Belle or Edgar?

Here is the per season averages for them all:
Pujols - 84.6
Ramirez - 70.1
Belle - 67.2
Martinez - 66.5
ARod - 65.0
Bagwell - 62.4
Thomas - 55.8
Sosa - 53.0
Jeter - 46.1
Biggio - 42.2

Poo Holes has been ungodly. But he also hasn’t experienced a decline yet, unlike most of these fellows. Belle was spared by his hip, but by 2000, he wasn’t the hitter he was even the year before, which was probably because of his hip.

So based on that, my personal ranking of these 10 guys is:
Manny Ramirez
Alex Rodriguez
Edgar Martinez
Jeff Bagwell
Albert Pujols
Frank Thomas
Sammy Sosa
Albert Belle
Derek Jeter
Craig Biggio

Pujols, and Thomas will probably both jump Bagwell this year (Pujols due to awesomeness, Thomas due to not being a complete corpse this year). Jeter might go past Belle, but might not.

EDIT:
To correct an oversight, I would put Sheffield between Rodriguez and Martinez as the 3rd best right handed hitter in the 95-present era.

Mike Piazza would have been in the top 10 if his last 3 years with the Mets weren’t poor, and McGwire defeinately would have been if his patela tendon was steroids proof.

Charts!

See this is how they have to win - with their horses pulling more than their weight. Basically, two Red Sox won the game tonight for their 23 other mates. Curt Schilling got it done and David Ortiz blasted two solo shots to pace the Sox to a narrow win over a mediocre club. Such is life these days. I have a pal, and he will read this, who will insist that this is merely a psychological mechanism on my part but I mean this; I am going to enjoy the hell out of rooting for a Sox team out of which I do not expect much.

My buddy insists that I am just setting expectations low so as to alleviate the pain of an inevitable let down. I can’t get inside my head well enough to deny that charge but I am more excited about pulling for these Red Sox than any other club in recent years because I want to root like hell for a team that I think has no business in the post-season.

These Red Sox are clearly New York’s inferiors. Same thing with Chicago and Minnesota in my opinion. But this is different than any other year since 2002 for me. See I have been burned, rather publicly at times, in stating that the Red Sox were better than their competition in past seasons. But I have no delusions of grandeur down the stretch in 2006. The Red Sox just aren’t as good as they have been in past years but who cares? Let’s just root like hell and hope the Sox can beat these other clubs over a two-month stretch. Far crazier things have happened. So check your anger at the gate, get behind these guys and let’s see what they can do.

Boomer’s on the hill today…

When your team is hampered by injuries and you are facing an uphill battle, you need your best to step to the fore and bear some more responsibility in order to cover up some roster deficiencies. As such, Josh Beckett failed miserably last night.

Javy Lopez is coming.

Since I called for his job on Monday, Mark Loretta has been pretty darn good. He was the hero last night, as the Sox won another wild one at Fenway in the bottom of the ninth. I don’t think they should have gotten to that point, however.

Since Jonathan Papelbon came on for the ninth, we obviously can deduce that Terry Francona is willing to send him out there in non-save situations. With the Sox clinging to a one-run lead heading into the eighth inning last night, the Indians had Grady Sizemore, their lead-off batter coming up. Francona had a blueprint for how he was going to close the win out. Mike Timlin and Papelbon would each pitch one inning, Timlin the eighth and Papelbon in the ninth, but is there really any reason you need Timlin to preceed Papelbon? With Sizemore and Travis Hafner coming up, two of the three or four best players in the American League, wouldn’t you rather your best out there? I would have loved to have seen Papelbon come out for the eighth and if he threw few enough pitches, come back for the ninth. But even if he wasn’t able to come out in the ninth, Timlin would have been more than capable of getting Blake, Peralta, Shoppach, etc. Let Pap handle the big boys.

Wily Mo, Manny and Loretta carried the offense for Boston. Jake Westbrook and Josh Beckett go at it tonight.

In the Bronx, Cory Lidle makes his dubut. Let’s hope the Jays can get the bats going today and salvage one.