The Modern Rotation
Hey
After a short hiatus decompressing from the failed Red Sox campaign, we’re back! So…
What determines the labeling of the guys that toe the mound for a baseball team?
The perception of the back of the rotation is the following paradigm: Guy that can pitch league average or slightly below league average innings, normally average 5-6 innings a game. You know, guys that are easily replaceable by better guys. Basically…a back of the rotation guy throws 170-180 innings of 5.00 ball.
This man does not exist in the baseball market. The reason is that this man is a solid #3 starter.
We throw subjective ratings (this guy is a 1…this guy is a 3) out at starting pitchers all the time, and the general meaning behind them is usually around the neighborhood of quality (a number 1 is a very good pitcher, a #3 is average ect…)
The fact remains though, that logically, there are 30 number 1’s, 30 #2’s ect. We have 30 teams, and each team must have a #1 starter. There is really no logical way to argue against that because in fact it’s inherently true…the Royals have a best pitcher…their Number One.
Now that we have boundaries (the pitchers ranked between 1-30 are your #1’s, the guys 31-60 are your number 2’s ect.), we need to limit the sample. I thought because of the perception that your back of the rotation guys should be innings eaters of questionable effectiveness. I put this limit at 120 innings as a starter. This covers translates to 20 starts @ 6 innings per, or 24 starts @ 5 innings. Basically, this should give a good set of pitchers to determine who is actually a number 1 vs. a number 5.
Anyway, that was my thinking a few days ago when I was going to write about how rotations shake out. And I was thrown for a loop.
Basically, because we have a standard five man rotation these days, at any given time, there are 150 guys in major league rotations.
Given these parameters, it should be easy to figure out who is slotted where…but given the 120 inning rule, there were only 110 pitchers that qualified. This means there were 10 open 4 starter spots, and 30 open 5th starter spots due to the easily reachable boundaries set up. The idea of the back of the rotation is strong, yet there were no pitchers that were actually slotted there.
Only the White Sox, Colorado, Florida, Oakland, Padres, and Giants had 5 primary starters that reached the 120 inning plateau.
The bottom guys on the list…the 10 “average 4’s” were:
John Koronka
Wandy Rodriguez
Sean Marshall
Mark Redman
Jeff Weaver
Rodrigo Lopez
Jason Marquis
Brian Moehler
Carlos Silva
Joel Piniero
The combined run saved (using the baseline of 1 run better than 1.5 times the league average) was -40.4. Or 40 runs worse than good starters in AAA could theoretically do.
So the idea of grabbing a 4th and 5th starter is pretty much a fools errand. They just don’t exist in modern baseball. The back of the rotation is filled with guys that cycle in and out (of those guys listed, they were either hurt, completely ineffective, or were rotated in and out of the pen/rotation).
Championship level baseball rotations are made of a solid complement of 1-3 level starters. The thought of a team who’s competitive goal is to be in the running for a World Series (not economic goal) grabbing guys on the cheap and sitting back in the rotation (like the Indians did with Paul Byrd) probably isn’t the best way to solidify the runs prevented side of the baseball equation.
Where there is a decided economic advantage, going cheap in the rotation is a good way to have 12-15 starters start games for you (the Red Sox are actually a good example of this…also a good example on how a good medical staff is the best way to make sure you don’t see “Woah, Matt Clement’s arm is dead? Who Knew!?! LOL!”). This should put the values of the Derek Lowe’s and the Bronson Arroyo’s in better perspective (Arroyo’s value in a vacuum was underrated by just about everyone, though his actual talent level is probably worth Wily Mo Pena’s potential.)
The Sox would be well served to go and buy a Ted Lilly for $5 million. The problem will come when they cross their arms, sit back and declare him “Our Number 5 starter this year!”