Todd Helton is a future Hall of Famer.

The heavy-hitting Rockies first basemen has quietly and consistently played at an elite level over the past 10 seasons, with a career OPS+ (park adjusted) of 143, as well as stellar defense behind the bag. 

However, when the rumors of a possible trade to the Red Sox began to leak, I could not help but feel some apprehension. 

Unfortunately, just as impressive as Todd’s batting average are the numbers on his outrageous contract.  You see, Todd (who will be 34 in August) has 6 years and $90 million owed to him, courtesy of the same guys who made Mike Hampton the richest man in Colorado.  Now that the JD Drew deal is apparently finalized, the Red Sox are not exactly flexible, in terms of payroll. 

The team currently has Kevin Youkilis slotted in at 1B for 2007.  In his first full season, Kevin played good defense and provided a solid .810 OPS.  His first-half OPS was .874, which is probably a better indicator of his ceiling, as the young player likely wore down over the long season.  Kevin’s 2006 salary was nearly 1/50^th of Helton’s, and his 2006 production wasn’t far off.  With the Sox spending big on so many other areas on the field, why would they take on a humongous contract at a position where they have cheap talent?

In addition to this, I present to you what we bean-counters like to refer to as “a red flag”.

Todd Helton’s Road OPS:

2004: .990 (age 31)
2005: .871 (age 32)
2006: .781 (age 33)

This should not be much of a surprise to anyone.  I’m sure you’re familiar with the Coors Effect, and that OPS trend is your typical regression of a player who is entering his mid-30’s.  That 2006 line is a bit troubling to me.  As a comparison, Kevin Youkilis’ road OPS was only .007 lower than Helton’s, and Youkilis is 28 years old.  Add in the factor that Helton will be coming to the American League, a place where most baseball people feel the competition is a bit stiffer than the NL West, and there are quite a few things to consider before endorsing this deal.

At this point, the talks are just that: talks.  There isn’t much indication that a deal is imminent, and there hasn’t been much certainty as to which players the Sox would send to Colorado.  The names of Craig Hansen and Matt Clement (plus the obligatory prospects) have been bandied about.  Colorado would likely be asked to send some cash in lieu of Helton’s price tag.

As it currently stands, I am wary of this potential deal.  None of us can be sure how high the Red Sox ownership is willing to go in the payroll department, but if the threshold is anywhere near the current amount, Helton’s contract could become a very jagged pill, as Red Sox Nation watches the future Hall of Famer embark on that melancholy journey upon which all athletes must embark: the road to the sunset of a once great career.