As the immortal David Bowie once wrote:

Ch-ch-Changes
Just gonna have to be a different man
Time may change me
But I can’t trace time

What’s up internet baseball nerds? It’s nice to be here. I’ll try not to disappoint the loyal followers; these are some big shoes to fill. It’s nice having another new guy on board so I can blame him when you stop coming here. Enough bullshit, lets get down to it.

The 2007 season approaches with a few more transitions being made. Of course, there are the annual rookie call-ups, free agent signings and trades. Keep walkin’, nothin’ to see here. Things are a little more complicated this year. There have been several high profile Japanese acquisitions entering significant roles spots on contending clubs. I won’t attempt to project their statistics, because there are other guys out there that can do it better. My goal is to create an illusion of context for their former statistics through comparison (albeit limited). Also, why do some Japanese players fail? Are there inherent differences in the style of play that make the adjustment easier (or more difficult) for a specific kind of player? Do players improve once they’ve made the switch because they become more talented, or because they become acclimated to their opponents?

The Prototype

Ichiro burst onto the scene in 2001, merely won ROY and MVP on a team that won 116 games and filled (along with Bret “More Juice than Minute Maid” Boone) the void left by the departure of three superstars. It’s safe to say he adjusted well, but he isn’t the same player that he was in Japan. His JPL numbers in reflected more power than he has ever demonstrated in the states. His slugging never dipped below .500 on the other side of the Pacific; while here he has barely topped .450. He was more of a home run threat in Japan, averaging nearly 17 a season compared with 10 in MLB.

As you can see he was remarkably consistent in Japan, and that consistency has carried over. Look at 97 and 98: his OBP was constant and his SLG wavered one point. This is the nature of Ichiro’s game. The natural adjustment period any hitter goes through is mitigated by his style. He is the only player in the game that makes pitchers adjust to him. It doesn’t matter who’s pitching to him, he’ll hit. I really wish I could come up with a legit reason to hate him.

Go-Go-Godzilla

There’s a reason Matsui got that nickname in Japan. From 2000-2002 he slugged .654, hit 128 home runs, and reached base about 45% of the time. How has he fared since making the transition?

He was a regular on the Yomiuri Giants when he turned 20 in 1994 and put up fantastic numbers for his age. At that point he was still adjusting to a long schedule and a higher level of pitching. His MLB debut numbers are a step down from his JPL debut, but subsequent seasons are comparable; after a few years in Japan he was tearing the cover off the ball. He adjusted well in 2003, but was still far below his Japanese OPS. It’s my guess/hypothesis/theory/answer that he effectively reverted to his 1995-96 Japan form; in 03 he was like a young player becoming comfortable with his opposition. Either that or the acne scars are creating such air resistance he can’t get around on the ball. He and Julian Tavarez should open a haunted house or something.

We’ll see what happens in 2007; he’s only 33 in June.

What about those other guys?

So Taguchi became a regular in Japan in 1994. He was a productive hitter, but no superstar. A poor man’s Ichiro, if you will. He’s James Blake to Ichiro’s Roger Federer, and that might be generous. His production has remained constant since making the switch, although he was allowed some acclimation by his two years as a benchwarmer backup before he got significant time on the Cardinals.

A player that relies on speed and mistake hitting is inherently less affected by his competition. He’ll still be fast and pitchers will still screw up regardless of the continent they’re on. However, Taguchi is old (37) and his speed is waning.

Tadahito Iguchi

He has yet to blossom as an MLB player, but there is reason for optimism in Chi-town. As a young player in Japan he was a woeful hacker, with 121 and 117 Ks in 98 and 99 versus 28 and 38 walks, respectively. He still struck out a lot from 02-04, but he learned to take a walk (81 BB in 2003). His ability to get on base improved fairly constantly every year in Japan and that ability has not been lost. 2002 was an injury-shortened anomaly.

The power he displayed in 03-04 is still missing, and he struck out more than any other AL second basemen last year (118), but his 05-06 MLB seasons are comparable to his 00-01 JPL service. He is still only 32; if he continues along the same trend and cuts down the whiffs he might be a surprise.

My friend Eric (aka “Spastic Ric”) had this to say about Iguchi: “He’s really hurt by Ozzie Guillen’s managing. All those g-d bunts and hit and runs in the two hole really cramp his style.”

Alright, then wtf happened to Kaz Matsui?!

I’ll try to make some sense of this dude and his stats, but no promises. His JPL numbers are off the charts. I don’t blame Steve Phillips for giving him that contract; although I do blame Steve-o for giving away Jason Bay and being an all-around idiot on Baseball Tonight.

Kaz improved dramatically nearly every season on Seibu until he reached the offensive shortstop stratosphere. It isn’t surprising that he struggled after landing in the New York pressure cooker, but that he failed to improve in subsequent years.

Those 2006 Mets and Rockies numbers are in limited action (~120 ABs each) but maybe he’s figured it out since leaving the Big Apple. He was .476/.500 at Coors; so he actually hit for more power on the road. He was somewhere between “train-wreck” and “global pandemic” on the disaster scale while in New York, but he showed a similar level of awful in 96 as he adjusted to the JPL. I blame it on Shea. I wouldn’t wanna work in Queens either.

It looks like slap hitters that rely on speed are subject to a steeper learning curve that flattens sooner. The Ichiros and Taguchis keep the same philosophy they used in Japan; the Matsuis, Iguchis and likely, Iwamuras, take a little time to get used to individual pitchers and have to alter their game.

Even if he slips back to his 2001 production, his MLB debut will be a success.

Maybe the differences in production after the transition have nothing to do with talent, but are as simple as an adjustment from one set of opponents to another. When some players move from Asia to MLB their statistics essentially regress to the point at which they were making the transition from Koshien (or whatever level they were previously in) to professional ball. I’m not suggesting that high school talent is anywhere near pro talent, but baseball’s mano-a-mano nature puts matchups, and therefore familiarity with opponents at a premium. Sometimes this familiarity outweighs pure skill. While I’ve used Japan as an example, these principles apply throughout the game.

Next week: Pitchers

Japanese Stats courtesy of http://japanesebaseball.com