2006 Record: 80-82, 3rd NL Central

Projected Lineup:
CF Ryan Freel
2B Brandon Phillips
RF Ken Griffey
LF Adam Dunn
3B Edwin Encarnacion
1B Scott Hatteberg
C Dave Ross
SS Alex Gonzalez

Projected Rotation:
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Eric Milton
Kyle Lohse
Elizardo Ramirez

Closer:
David Weathers

Outlook:
Like Colorado, the Red Legs were one of baseball’s nice little surprises in 2006. Manager Jerry Narron seemed to push all the right buttons last season, as his squad outperformed their Pythagorean record of 76-86 by 4 wins, and actually contended for a good portion of the year. In 2006, GM Wayne Krivsky made two notable trades: one turned out spectacularly, the other made the baseball world shake its collective head in disbelief.

Shortly before the 2006 season began, the Reds dealt promising yet flawed OF Wily Mo Pena to the Boston Red Sox for starter Bronson Arroyo. At first glance, this trade seemed to be a bit of a coup for Boston: Wily Mo was a 24 year old athletic slugger with an explosive bat and tons of upside. Arroyo was viewed as a 6th arm in the Boston rotation, a 29-year-old guy with a 98 ERA+, essentially your typical league-average right-handed pitcher. However, much to the chagrin of Boston fans, Arroyo shocked the National League with an All-Star performance. Wily Mo, meanwhile, produced reasonably well in a limited role for Boston, but made a few gaffes in RF which drew the ire of the unforgiving Fenway crowd, and caused the relentless WEEI-nation to pine for the guitar-strumming hurler.

That was the good trade. The trade which baffled fans and analysts everywhere occurred in mid-season, when Krivsky sent away 3 promising young players (Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner) to the Washington Nationals, in exchange for 2 young relievers (Gary Majewski and Bill Bray), the mummified corpse of Royce Clayton, and some flotsam and jetsam. Bray is a useful lefty arm, but Majewski is currently suffering shoulder pains. The two make an interesting tandem, as Majewski is effective against right-handers, while Bray is stronger versus lefties. However, the trade of Kearns and Lopez leaves a void on the roster today, as Cincinnati was forced to overpay for the likes of Alex Gonzalez to occupy SS, and forced to rely on 37-year-old Scott Hatteberg at first base.

We’ll get to the lineup later, let’s take a look at the starting rotation.

As you probably know, the art of ranking starting pitchers 1 through 5 is arbitrary, and doesn’t carry a whole lot of water.  Barring serious injuries, a #4 starter will receive just as many starts as the Opening Day starter, and the rotation will be inevitably shuffled, due to rain-outs and minor injuries, among other things.  When I rank starting pitchers here, I am simply raking them in the order that they will most likely be used at the beginning of the year.  In some cases, the #1 starter may not be the best starter.  However, not in this case: if I had to pick between Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang to start one game, I would choose Harang.  He has much better peripherals and better stuff than our old co-ed dormitory-invading friend.  Thus, he is my #1 here.  Despite Harang having an ERA a half-run higher than Bronson, he was the better pitcher in 2006; better K/9, better K/BB, and almost an identical HR rate.  He led the league in strikeouts, starts, and shutouts in 2006, we well as wins.  The Reds recently made a very smart move, inking the 28-year-old ace to a four-year, $36.5 million deal.

Arroyo returns to the rotation after a career year, leading the league in innings pitched, finishing 4^th in ERA, and pitching in the All-Star game.  Perhaps it’s my Boston bitterness coming through here, or perhaps it’s the fact that Bronson had Lady Luck on his side in 2006 (a .262 BABIP from a flyball pitcher), but I see a rude awakening for Arroyo in 2007.  Expect a few of those fly balls to carry a little bit farther this year, expect him to give up roughly 35 homers, and expect that ERA to rise at least 1 full run.  Which isn’t to say he’ll have a bad season…his performance will simply normalize, relative to his true abilities.

After Harang and Arroyo, the quality of Reds pitching falls off a cliff.  Their 3^rd starter, Eric Milton, gives up more homers than the CPU pitcher in Nintendo’s Baseball Stars.  Thanks to one of the more questionable contracts in recent history, Milton will be making nearly $10,000,000 next year, and he is a lock to give up 40 HRs if healthy.  Per 200 NL innings pitched, Milton averages 43 home runs allowed.  Unless Reds ownership decides to bulldoze the walls at the Great American Ballpark and create an actual MLB stadium, Milton will have a long, tortuous season.  Expect an ERA around 6.00. 

After Milton is yet another Minnesota ex-pat: Kyle Lohse.  The infamously inconsistent Lohse does show some promise: he has decent stuff, and performed relatively well as a starter in Cincinnati after a mid-season trade.  He’s only 28 (I know, it feels like he’s been around forever), so I suppose there is a chance the right-hander could break out.  He has strong peripherals (7.3 K/9, 1 HR per 9 innings, 2.7 K/BB in Cincy) and a live arm.  I would wager my soul that Lohse will outperform Eric Milton in the rotation in 2007.  However, even at his best, Lohse is just about average.       

Bringing up the rear of the rotation to begin the season will be Elizardo Ramirez.  The young Dominican was in the Cincinnati rotation for much of 2006, as was frustratingly inconsistent.  At times, he could dominate (striking out 7 straight batters in one game), but he mostly proved to be very hittable in his rookie campaign.  In 2007, Elizardo will be looking over his shoulder, as uber-prospect Homer Bailey will be drawing some serious attention in AAA.  If he pitches in AAA anywhere near as effectively as he pitched in AA, the Cincinnati media and fans will be clamoring for the debut of the big Texan.  Newly acquired Kirk Saarloos (check out my Oakland preview, which was written before they sent him here) will also be making a bid to unseat Elizardo, although Kirk will likely start as a long reliever. 

The Reds bullpen picture is not quite as dreary as the back-end of the rotation.  Although the roles have yet to be defined, the Reds boast a decent combination of quality veterans and promising youngsters.  Their closer, Eddie Guardado, is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, and will not be ready to contribute until mid-season.  In his stead, the closer position is not exactly set in stone.  David Weathers handled the duties in 2006, pitching fairly well (3.54 ERA in 74 innings), and looks to be the best bet to open the season as the team’s primary 9^th inning option.  Veteran lefty Mike Stanton returns to the Reds, after proving to still be useful in 2006.  Since Weathers and Stanton will be turning 38 and 40, respectively, the Reds would be wise to have a Plan B available, in case the wheels were to fall off of the geezers.  Rounding out the geriatric faction of the pen is old friend Rheal Cormier.  The wily lefty is essentially the Jamie Moyer of relievers, a guy with a fastball in the 80’s who is still chugging along, way past his expiration date.  Rheal is not a LOOGY (nor are any of the Reds lefties), and I wouldn’t put much stock into his future in the MLB.  He did have a 2.44 ERA last season, so it is not improbable that he will be once again effective in 2007, despite my bearish predictions.

The young arms in the bullpen include Matt Belisle (righty, 26), Bill Bray (lefty, 23), and Todd Coffey (righty, 26).  If I were assigning bullpen roles for the Red Legs, Coffey would be my choice for closer.  3.58 ERA last season despite a high BABIP, decent control and stuff.  I cannot realistically envision David Weathers out-pitching Coffey under normal circumstances, at this stage of their careers.  Belisle is a guy who can start, and he does have an outside shot at that 5^th rotation spot.  Bray in the most promising player acquired in the Kearns/Lopez deal, and can pitch effectively to both left and right-handers. 

Except for the SS position, the Cincinnati starting lineup will be just about the same as it was when the 2006 season ended.  The one newcomer, Alex “Seabass” Gonzalez, will bring his flashy glove-work and heads-up brand of play from Beantown to the National League.  Alex will not be reminding anyone of Arky Vaughan, with a career OPS of .684 (among the lowest in the league).  He will, however, be challenging Omar Vizquel for the 2007 Gold Glove Award, and will provide more than a few “ESPN Moments” while patrolling the infield.

Joining Seabass in the middle infield will be second baseman Brandon Phillips.  Phillips and I have something in common: we both put on 10 pounds in the off-season.  However, while I put on ten pounds of doughy office-flab, Brandon added 10 pounds of lean muscle.  If there is one player in the Reds lineup who will break out this season, Phillips is the safest bet to be that guy.  The 24-year-old looks to continue a promising jumpstart to what was once a floundering career, after hitting 17 homers and stealing 25 bases in 2006.

At the corner infield positions stand Scott Hatteberg (1B) and Edwin Encarnacion (3B).  Hatteberg’s strengths are well known to most of us, but alas, our old friend is getting a bit long in the tooth.  The converted first baseman still has the eye of an osprey, drawing 77 walks and only 41 strikeouts.  However, he will not be improving at this stage, and the Reds put themselves at a disadvantage without a more productive hitter at such a key position.  While Hatteberg sails toward the sunset of a respectable career, Encarnacion sails in the opposite direction.  The 24-year-old posted an .832 OPS in his first full season, and will look to improve this summer, particularly in the power department.  While his defense can be described as lackluster, he is young enough to improve in this area (as Hatteberg did not too long ago).

The Reds added some veteran leadership to their bench this off-season, acquiring racquetball king Jeff Conine from the Baltimore Orioles.  Even at age 40, Jeff can still hit a little, and will serve as a bat off the bench and defensive replacement for Scott Hatteberg at first.  Juan Castro, the sure-handed middle infielder, will return in a utility role, backing up Gonzalez and Phillips.  Another familiar face, discriminating swinger Mark Bellhorn (One Of The 25), has agreed to a minor league contract, and will vie for a spot on the bench.

Catcher David Ross will assume the bulk of the backstop duties after a career year in 2006, in which the 29-year-old crushed 21 HRs in only 247 at-bats.  If I had to use one word to describe Ross, it would be “Mirabelli”.  Honestly, Ross’ game is identical to Mirabelli’s (when Dougie was younger).  Dangerous power, huge holes in his swing.  Lots of strikeouts.  Crushes left-handers, gets torn apart by right-handers.  Slow as hell. Decent arm.  The only differences between Ross and Belli are their age and the batting gloves.  Since Jason LaRue was dealt to Kansas City, Javier Valentin looks to inherit the #2 role behind Ross.  The switch hitting backstop is one of the better backup catchers in baseball, and will provide value both offensively and defensively while giving Ross the occasional rest.

The strength of this Reds team, once again, is their outfield.  Ken Griffey, shockingly, is recovering from an injury (broken hand), but he should be playing in Spring Training games by the Ides of March, at the very latest.  Word on the street is that the future Hall of Famer will finally make the move to right field, and the speedy Ryan Freel will take over in center.  This has yet to be confirmed, but since it seems like the logical move, it probably won’t happen.  Griffey can still hit, obviously not like the Kingdome version, but an .800 OPS over 130 games can be expected.  Freel is an interesting little player: he can run (career 77% in SB attempts), he gets on base (.367 career OBP), and his slugging percentage almost cracked .400 last season.  All things considered, Freel is a fine leadoff option.

Finally, we get to the towering monstrosity in left field, Adam Dunn.  Dunn possesses what John Sickles would describe as “old player skills”: power and patience, size and strength, but zero agility.  Dunn is still young, only 27, but the trends in his offensive production present more red flags than a Chinese government office.  His last 3 SLG% totals: .569, .540, .490.  His last 3 OBP totals: .388, .387, .365.  Last season, he stuck out in a whopping 35% of his plate appearances (this is among the highest in baseball history).  Perhaps a full-time move to LF will be good for Dunn, and he’ll be able to think more about his offense, rather than dwelling on picking throws out of the dirt.  To me, however, it looks like he is simply slowing down.

Backing up the outfielders will be the promising 26-year-old Wheaton College graduate, Chris Denorfia.  When Griffey makes his obligatory trip to the DL this year, the slap-hitting Denorfia will get the bulk of the playing time.  A dark-horse candidate to land a backup job is the speedy Hopper Norris, last year’s International League batting champion (.347).  One other name I will note, only because it is a good story, is Rule 5 selection Josh Hamilton.  The former #1 draft pick has made a remarkable comeback from drug addiction, but the odds of him making the 25-man roster are close to zilch, as the Reds outfield is more crowded than a Tokyo subway.

The Reds do have some promising young talent, but I have 3 problems with this team:

1) They overachieved last season.
2) It does not appear that they have improved.  Any surges by guys like Phillips and Encarnacion will likely be washed by a decline from the likes of Dunn and Arroyo.
3) The rest of the NL Central (with the possible exception of Houston) has improved.

Unfortunately for Baseball’s First Franchise, this team looks to be one of the weaker squads in an already weak division.

Prediction:  75-87

Top 10 Prospects
Homer Bailey RHP
Jay Bruce OF
Joey Votto 1B
Johnny Cueto RHP
Travis Woods LHP
Drew Stubbs OF
Paul Janish SS
Milton Loo SS
Sean Watson RHP
Chris Dickerson OF

 

 

2006: 61-101, Last in AL East

2007 Projected Lineup
CF Rocco Baldelli (R)
LF Carl Crawford (L)
1B Ty Wigginton (R)
DH Jonny Gomes (R)/Jorge Cantu (R)
RF Delmon Young (R)
2B Akinori Iwamura (L)
3B B.J. Upton (R)
C Dioner Navarro (S)
SS Ben Zobrist (S)

Rotation
LHP Scott Kazmir
LHP Cassey Fossum
RHP Tim Corcoran
RHP James Shields
RHP Jae Seo

Closer
RHP Seth McClung/RHP Dan Miceli/???

I’m bad luck. Going into August 2006, the Red Sox were hangin’ tough with the Yankees, ready to contend for a playoff spot.

So Dad says, “Hey Zach, let’s go to Tampa and check out the Sox next weekend, I just found some seats behind home plate.” I pondered the idea for a moment, and then he drops the all-important: “My treat.”

“Deal.”

I had a bad feeling from the beginning. First of all, Florida has crocodiles. Second, I knew the Trop was a dump. I don’t make a point of visiting dome stadiums so I don’t have much to compare, but I can say that it’s a barren, sterile pile of sweaty concrete. Its saving grace: Boddington’s at the concession stand. Maybe my Dad and I are spoiled Fenway snobs, but our first impression was “Damn, this place feels like a mall.”

“I’m gonna go get a beer. You want anything at Eddie Bauer?” Dad was pretty proud of himself after that gem. I’m sure you don’t need to be reminded, but after dropping two of three to the Rays, the Sox were swept by the Royals and massacred at the Fens by the Yankees. I take full responsibility for the disaster that was 2006. My presence in Tampa triggered the avalanche. You see, I’ve witnessed an inordinate amount of season ending injuries, blowout losses, rain delays, and other general shittyness. I learned two things on that trip to Tampa 1. Don’t get between a retiree and the Sunday buffet and 2. The Rays have some fire. They showed a lot of resolve, they stuck with it and played hard even though they were out of it when they broke camp.

Tell Nana and Pop-pop on the Gulf Coast that there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. The Rays have a young, cheap core with some major league experience. They have the best group of prospects, ever. The offense should be productive and Scott Kazmir is a stud-in-training. They have some very valuable commodities that could be traded before opening day for a starter. Put this team in the 2006 NL West and they run away with the division.

This is optimism in the most cautious sense. There are also a boatload of problems with they way the roster is constructed. Beyond the obvious infield clusterf*ck and bullpen ineptitude, they don’t have a true leadoff hitter. Nobody in the starting nine had an OBP over .350; those who were close are more valuable driving guys in. Rocco “The Woonsocket Wonder” Baldelli is the choice of conventional baseball stupidity, but he outslugged Gomes and Cantu (AKA “the sluggers”) by a significant margin. Honestly I don’t know how much stock to put into this, but he is far more comfortable batting first (1.005 OPS) than third (.803 OPS) and strangely his power explodes when he gets first crack (.639 vs. .476 SLG). While he seems to favor it, Rocco just isn’t programmed to leadoff. He can certainly hit; if he learns where the strike zone is he’ll be a star. A .533 SLG isn’t ideal for a leadoff guy, but no reason to complain. This is purely masturbatory; if he sticks in Tampa he’ll be hitting first.

I have a hopeless man-crush on Carl Crawford. After leading the league in triples for three years in a row, its safe to say he’s electrifying. His OPS trend since he became an everyday player in 2003 is pretty awesome: .671, .781, .800, .830. Although it’s slightly irrelevant, in 2004 he grounded into two double plays in 626 at bats. Not bad for the second hitter in a lineup. While unfashionable, maybe blazing speed at the top is more valuable than we post-Moneyball nerds sabermetricians believe.

Jonny Gomes looks more like he belongs on a fan boat in the Everglades more than batting third for the Devil Rays. He’s going to have to prove himself again this spring. I wouldn’t guarantee him a starting spot, he should battle Jorge Cantu. Jorge had a breakout in 2005 (.808 OPS) he fell of a cliff last year (.699). His versatility is nice but he won’t get many chances in the field. Barring a slew of injuries or a trade, he’ll be a DH. Ty Wigginton is sure to be in there after his career high 24 home runs and .828 OPS. He’s proven himself in the AL East after three years of obscurity in the NL. That old “change of scenery” line sometimes holds true. Bossman Junior Upton will make throwing errors at a record pace (13 in 139 chances in 2006) until they figure out a way to get him to the outfield. If Rocco gets dealt than Upton moves to left, Crawford to center, Wigginton/Iwamura to third and Cantu to first. A deal with the Phillies for Jon Lieber plus a prospect or two and a pile of cash would be a good fit. Lieber is bad, but a veteran in the rotation could be invaluable.

The right field mess has been cleaned up by Delmon Young. He averaged nearly one extra base hit every 10 at bats after getting the call in late August. As long as he doesn’t pull another Izzy Alcantara he’ll be in right for the duration and a huge improvement over the Damon Hollins/Russell Branyan/Greg Norton monster.

As I wrote in my first post at Dewey’s House, it’s going to take Akinori Iwamura at least a season or two to adjust. His value is largely dependant on where they play him (chill out, nerds). At second a .750 OPS is acceptable, but at third it’s near the bottom of the league. He’s going to need some time and the infield is crowded now, if he doesn’t find it by mid season he’ll find himself on the bench.

Does anyone else feel like recent advertising has stolen all your favorite songs and commercialized them to the point of nausea? Ben Zobrist should agree, during my aforementioned trip to Tampa I discovered Ben and I had favorite tune in common – The Chemical Brothers’ “Galvanize.” Well, for me its more of a guilty pleasure, but Ben was so fond it played before each of his at bats. Since then Budweiser has stolen this song from us, as well as Geico with Royksopp’s “Remind Me” and half a Goldfrapp album (Verizon, Alltel, Motorola, L’Oreal, Diet Coke, ABC, F/X, and Target all use Goldfrapp tunes, thanks http://adtunes.com). Anyway, Zobrist couldn’t sniff a league average OPS+ (46) in 2006, but his 2006 minor league OPS was .984; there’s clearly some potential. Dioner Navarro will get the majority of the time behind the plate and Josh Paul is there to back up.

By the end of the season, we could be adding a name to the short list of major league aces, and its not Victor Zambrano. Is anyone else surprised Jim Duquette hasn’t been drawn and quartered in Flushing? Maybe he’s the part of the General Manager Protection Program. Kazmir was an All-Star last year and managed a mere 144 ERA+. The success is due to his reduced walk totals. After throwing up a BBenjamin in 2005 he cut the free passes to 52 last year and maintained his strikeouts. If he continues on that pace he’ll waltz into the Cy Young.

After Kazmir there’s some talent, but it’s thinner than Cassey Fossum’s waistline. You remember The Blade…he’s still not a reliable starter. Jae Seo threw up a 162 ERA+ in 90 IP in 2005, but was inconsistent last year. James Sheilds had a nice June in 2006 (4-1, 3.60), unfortunately he followed it with July (0-4, 6.49). If I had to bet on any of these bums to impress this year, it would be Tim Corcoran. He carried a very respectable 3.96 ERA into a mid-September contest with the Yankees, but left it bruised and battered after one third of an inning and seven earned. I think Tim would agree, he just didn’t have it that day.

Rumor has it they’re looking at Dustin Hermanson for the bullpen. He’d join some combination of Seth McClung, Dan Miceli, Scott Dohman, Al Reyes and possibly former uber-prospect Edwin Jackson at the end of the pen. J.P. Howell is still left handed, so he’ll be employed. Shinji Mori may never come back from a 2006 torn labrum, but remains property of the Rays - look for him in June. Chad Orvella will be back, as well as “doesn’t rhyme with Buddy,” Ruddy Lugo. Every time I hear “…and Shawn Camp is warming in the pen” I still hope it’s a fat dude in a Sonics Jersey suckin’ on a pint of SoCo. If Gerry Hunsicker finds someone with a name similar to “Detlef Schrempf” a la NBA Jam (Tournament Edition of course) I’d probably giggle myself to death. It’s a good thing that’s unlikely. The pen is a terrible mess and a glaring weakness, I get the feeling Joe Maddon will be picking names out of a hat.

The new owners have been promising change in the W column; unfortunately they’re in the wrong division to get make significant progress there. I guess they bought Lucifer out, because in 2008 they’re planning on dropping the Devil and becoming the Tampa Bay Rays. I understand their hesitance to be associated with the Antichrist, but it doesn’t exactly roll off the tougue. As long as they lose the strange color scheme they’ll be winners in my book.

Looking into the future, in 2008 they only have around $13 million committed, leaving them enough flexibility to add some payroll before the start of that campaign. Much like North Korea, they will focus on arms. Baldelli, Crawford, Iwamura, and Young are signed; while Elijah Dukes, Gomes, Upton and Zobrist will remain at the minimum ($380k). Arbitration costs (Kazmir and Cantu) will be significant and Hunsicker would be wise to lock up Kaz for his remaining arbitration years. The future is bright for the young Rays, as their star-studded farm system pours its talent into the bigs the main difficulty will be getting playing time spread around. They’ll have a number of big trading chips; building the value of these guys at the ML level will only make Hunsicker’s job easier.

If Maddon can find a few serviceable bullpen arms and some starters overachieve the Rays could challenge third place. I’m about to sound like a pathetic homer, but it will take a remarkable changing of the guard in the next five years for the playoff door to open. The Red Sox and Yankees have first and second all but locked down, and if they falter the Blue Jays are poised to contend. Don’t count out the deep pockets of Peter Angelos in Baltimore either. The East is incredible.

Prediction: 69-93

P.S. Nice win on Senior Night, Orangemen. Who wants to dance?

2006 Record: 76-86, 4th place NL West

Projected Lineup:
CF Willy Taveras
RF Brad Hawpe
1B Todd Helton
3B Garrett Atkins
LF Matt Holliday
C Chris Iannetta
SS Troy Tulowitzki
2B Kaz Matsui

Projected Rotation:
Jeff Francis
Aaron Cook
Rodrigo Lopez
Josh Fogg
Jason Hirsh

Closer:
Brian Fuentes

Outlook:
The cool mountain air of the Rockies spawned many surprises last year. No, I’m not talking about the CEO of Coors being arrested for DUI.  I’m talking about a team that finished, amazingly, with 1 more run scored than run yielded.  As they usually are, Colorado’s lineup consisted of a few power hitters, a few bad contracts, and some decent pitchers (these pitchers must be kept in cages, heavily sedated, or else they will run away). 

Franchise pitcher Jason Jennings led a gritty staff in 2006, throwing 212 innings and posting a 3.78 ERA.  I don’t have to tell you that this type of performance is no small feat in Denver.  Behind him, Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook also provided steady performances on the mound, keeping the Rockies in ballgames.  However, the biggest surprises came from the hitters.  Even in their infamous hitters’ environment, the likes of Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, and Jamey Carroll all broke out in a major way.  This couldn’t have come at a more needed time, since franchise hitter Todd Helton had a relatively down year, due in part to a nagging stomach illness. 

In the off-season, the Rockies made quite a few moves, both via trade and free-agency.  The biggest move was the trading of their #1 starter, Jason Jennings, to the Houston Astros.  In return for Jennings, they receive speedy outfielder Willy Tavares, a decent pitching prospect in Jason Hirsh, and inning-eater Taylor Buchholz.  While this move may not help the rotation much in 2007, Hirsh will likely prove to be a useful starter in a couple of years.  Colorado also singed free agents LaTroy Hawkins (RP), Brian Lawrence (SP), Rodrigo Lopez (SP), and Javy Lopez (C).  I have to give GM Dan O’Dowd credit here; he certainly kept himself busy this winter.  A few of these guys might not contribute much (I honestly can’t see Javy Lopez doing anything useful anymore, after watching him drag his bloated, decomposing carcass around Fenway for a month), but the moves are low cost and low risk, with a potential upside.  

2007 looks to be another difficult year for Colorado starting pitchers.  The Jennings trade leaves a quasi-hole in the rotation, since Jason Hirsh may not be ready to pitch effectively.  He was lit up in his big-league debut in Houston, and might need some more AAA time before he is ready to grip the humidor-enhanced baseballs at Coors.  (Side note: How is the whole “humidor” thing even legal?  I think Fenway Park should store their baseballs in an oil drum. Or, maybe the pitchers should light the baseballs on fire before each pitch.  It wouldn’t hurt to explore the rules a bit, would it?)

In Jennings’ absence, Jeff Francis takes over as the Rockies’ #1 starter.  Francis improved greatly in 2006, and began to show why he was one of the most ballyhooed pitching prospects in baseball before getting the call.  In 199 innings, Francis posted an impressive 1.286 WHIP, while only yielding 18 homers on the year.  Behind him, Aaron Cook returns from a year in which he started 32 games, pitched 213 innings, and posted a respectable ERA of 4.23 (114 ERA+).  Cook is a nice story, recovering from blood clots in 2004 to have a healthy and successful season in 2006.  He relies on a heavy sinker, and has had success in the Coors environment, yielding lots of hits, but not a lot of homers.

After Francis and Cook, the outlook begins to get murky.  Newly acquired Rodrigo “The Red Sox Killer” Lopez will probably slide into the 3^rd spot in the rotation.  Lopez was rather atrocious in the American League in 2006, causing more pain and suffering in Baltimore than those crack-dealers from “The Wire”.  Lopez had the worst season of his career, losing 18 games and posting a 5.90 ERA.  Now, a large reason for his failures was the gopher-ball: 32 HRs allowed, and this is a bit of a red flag, considering his new home.  His K/9 and K/BB peripherals are all solid, but Rodrigo will need to keep the ball a bit lower in the zone to avoid getting pounded in Colorado.  He will have the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor, so expect a season at least slightly better than the egg he laid in Camden Yards last year.      

The final two spots in the rotation will be decided in spring training, and right now my Magic 8-Ball is trying the best it can to decipher this mess.  My money is on veteran innings-eater Josh Fogg filling the 4^th spot in the rotation.  If you were to look up “mediocrity” in the dictionary, a photo of Fogg’s mug would be staring at you.  If anything, the right-hander is consistent: his last 5 ERA+ are 88, 85, 89, and 81.  The standard deviation on his ERAs is lower than the number of laptops I own.  One thing working in Fogg’s favor: he doesn’t yield very many homers in Colorado.  In fact, his HR/9 actually decreased from his days at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.  Best case scenario: Fogg can keep them in enough games, and let the dangerous lineup out-slug the other team.

Now, for the final rotation spot, I have highly-touted prospect Jason Hirsh penciled in.  As I mentioned above, his pitches were not treated very kindly by opposing bats in 2006, but as a general rule, I don’t put much stock in the results of September cups-of-coffee.  Too much variability and pressure involved.  Beginning a fresh slate in Denver, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hirsh pitch similarly to the way Jeff Francis pitched in his rookie season (getting occasionally smacked around, but likely ending the year with numbers just as good as Fogg).  There are 4 more viable candidates for the 5^th slot, two of whom I would consider likely contenders, and the other two I would consider long shots.  Taylor Buchholz was another piece acquired from Houston is the Jennings deal.  Buchholz saw some time in the Houston rotation last season, and actually showed flashes of brilliance (including a complete game shutout), as well as flashes of incompetence (yielded 1.67 homers per 9 innings).  Old friend Byung-Hyun Kim started 27 games in the Rockies rotation in 2006, and enjoyed his usual high K rates and occasional control spasms.  While I personally would have Kim in the rotation over either Lopez, Fogg, or Hirsh, the grumblings out of Denver are that management likes him in the bullpen.  Ubaldo Jimenez and Brian Lawrence round out the long-shot candidates for the final starting spot.  Jimenez is a promising hard-throwing right-handed rookie, and Lawrence is a veteran who was out last season, recovering from surgery.  Both will need to impress this spring, in tandem with a miserable spring from the likes of Kim, Buchholz, and Hirsh. 

There will be one new face in the Colorado bullpen to compliment the rock-steady lefty closer, Brian Fuentes (who has made the last 2 All-Star teams). Free agent LaTroy Hawkins will join his fellow former-Oriole Rodrigo Lopez, and will likely serve as the set-up man in a serviceable bullpen.  25-year-old Ramon Ramirez returns after an outstanding rookie season in which he posted an ERA+ of 139 to go along with an impressive 8.10 K/9.  Former Royal Jeremy Affeldt will likely see most off the LOOGY situations in the bullpen.  The lefty was spanked with authority last season (6.91 ERA), but did hold lefties to a .212 batting average.  Another rookie, 24-year-old Manny Corpas, will likely join the big-league bullpen to begin the season.  Corpas was impressive in a brief trial in 2006, and provides more youth to a group of promising arms who have shown the ability to weather the high altitude.  Veteran lefty Tom Martin provided yeoman’s work in the Colorado bullpen last season, and will return as a reliable mop-up guy and token lefty, and insurance just in case Affeldt is ineffective.  One of Kim or Buchholz (whichever guy does not join the rotation) will serve as a spot starter or 12^th pitcher.

Before I move onto the infield, let me just say this: about 20 minutes ago, someone pulled the fire alarm in my building.  I performed my due diligence, making sure there was no actual fire (I opened my door and sniffed).  So for the past 20 minutes, I‘ve been typing this review with toilet paper jammed in my ears, and hatred in my heart.  Kids, don’t pull fire alarms, because I just might come looking for you some day.

On to the infield…

Todd Helton, the heart of this fledgling franchise, will return to his familiar post at first base (so we think).  I’m sure you’ve heard the countless trade rumors surrounding Helton, most of which had him going to the Red Sox in exchange for pitching.  You can see my analysis of a hypothetical deal here.  It is conceivable that a deal could still happen, but the talks have certainly cooled down of late, and the season is rapidly approaching, so we’ll assume Helton remains in Denver.  In 2006, Helton saw a noticeable drop-off in production, as his OPS shrank from .979 to .880.  Some of this could be attributed to the nagging stomach illness, but given his age (33), a drop-off in production should not be a surprise.  It would be unfair to expect Helton to put up the astronomical offensive digits that Mile-High fans had enjoyed for the better part of the 21^st century.  If Helton remains healthy, he’ll likely continue to hit well, but not like he did in 2003.

Kaz Matsui will begin the season as the regular second baseman.  “Mothra” played excellently after his mid-season acquisition from the Mets, hitting .345/.392/.504 in 123 plate appearances, and creating about 8 runs per 27 outs.  While his defense is not spectacular, Matsui fielded the position extremely well in his short trial with the Rockies.  His presence at second base will prevent Colorado from trying to rely on another fluke season from Jamey Carroll, the 33 year old who broke out last season.  Carroll will most likely become a utility man, and one of the first bats off the bench. 

The left side of the infield in Colorado is among the most promising in the league.  At SS, Troy Tulowitzki looks to inherit the starting job, after taking over for the deposed Clint Barmes in late 2006.  The young infielder is among a handful of prospective NL Rookie of the Year candidates, and PECOTA predicts him raking to the tune of .291/.349/.461 in 2007.  If “Tulo” comes even close to approaching those numbers, he would be a gigantic improvement over Barmes’ anemic performance of 2006.  I shall be rooting heavily for Tulowitzki, simply because he has a great baseball name, and it would make my All-Polish team just about complete. 

To the hot corner returns one of the biggest breakout stories of 2006: Garrett Atkins.  Atkins’ diet consisted mostly of hapless opposing pitchers, as he tore through the NL with an OPS+ of 138 and a VORP of 62.7.  The 27-year-old returns healthy and hungry, and should be expected to once again serve as the cornerstone of the Colorado lineup, most likely hitting third.  Garrett isn’t exactly Brooks Robinson with the leather; he’ll likely end up at first base eventually, perhaps as soon as this season if Helton is dealt.  However, his gaudy offensive production will certainly mitigate his defensive shortcomings. 

The catching situation is similar to the SS situation in Colorado: the team has the option of going with a weak-hitting guy with a decent glove and experience, or a highly touted rookie with a solid bat, a suspect glove, and not much experience.  In this chapter, Yorvit Torreabla plays the role of the weak-hitting incumbent starter, and Chris Iannetta stars in the role of the hot-hitting rookie.  Given Torreabla’s horrendous plate discipline (49/11 K/BB ratio, .293 OBP), the smart money is on manager Clint Hurdle giving Iannetta the nod, barring a horrid spring training.  While Iannetta isn’t as savvy behind the plate as Torreabla, he should hit exceptionally well in the mountain air, perhaps around .300/.375/.475.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see both Iannetta and Tulowitzki is Rookie of the Year conversations come September.  Javy Lopez will likely serve as a backup 1B, third catcher, and DH in AL parks, assuming he shows that he can still play this spring. 

The Colorado outfield will return two breakout stars from 2006, as well as a new addition up the middle.  Willy Taveras, 25, is the most exciting off-season addition to this team.  Acquired in the Jason Jennings deal, Taveras brings excellent defense and speed to a team that is devoid of both.  Taveras shined in the tricky Minute Maid Park centerfield last season, adding 17 fielding runs above average (FRAR), and was also a terror on the basepaths, stealing 33 bases in 42 attempts (79 %).  The knock on Taveras is his lack of power and plate discipline.  Even considering his new atmosphere, Rockies fans would be wise to not expect much from an offensive standpoint, except for some electric running down the first base line, resulting in more than a few infield hits and bunt singles.  Despite his OBP deficiencies (career .329 OPB), Tavares is as good of a choice as any to lead off in this lineup of heavy hitters.

At left field stands perhaps the Rockies best offensive player, and perhaps most unlikely hero in 2006, Matt Holliday.  At 6’4” and 235 pounds, Holliday saw his HR total jump from 19 in 2005 to 34 in 2006, as he led the team in homers, slugging percentage, and stolen bases.  Like several other players in this lineup, Holliday will come into 2007 at that magic age, 27.  If Todd Helton can manage to improve only a little from his “off” season, Holliday will have even more protection that he did last season, and will likely have another All-Star caliber season.  Along with his dangerous bat, Holliday actually improved defensively in 2006, and with the help of Taveras, should be able to cover plenty of ground in the vast Colorado outfield.

The other corner outfield spot will be occupied by the electrifying Brad Hawpe.  Brad is essentially Trot Nixon West, a gritty fan favorite who crushes right-handed pitching, but looks like me versus left-handed pitching.  A guy with good pop, sound plate discipline, a strong throwing arm, but not too much range.  Hawpe will likely (“should” will probably be more appropriate) hit near the top of the order versus right-handed pitching, and will likely see some days off against tough lefties.  In his stead, Jeff Baker will likely get a few at-bats.  The 26 year old will see time in the corner outfield positions, as well as 3^rd base.  In a small sample (101 PAs), the righty has mashed to the tune of .305/.347/.653.  While that gaudy slugging percentage will not be sustainable, he does have a career slugging percentage of .511, and thus can be counted on for some power off the bench.  Rounding out the reserves is Cory Sullivan. A centerfielder, Cory Sullivan, is another lefty hitter, but he has a less severe L/R split than Hawpe.  Sullivan can run, and will be used to spell Taveras, Holliday, and Hawpe on occasion, especially in the late innings.

It would seem that the fans of the Purple have hope on the horizon.  On paper, the team certainly has the young talent, and manager Clint Hurdle will be on the hot-seat this year.  Aside from arguably the Dodgers, there isn’t a clear cut favorite in the NL West.  The Colorado lineup does not have one easy out, their bullpen is stocked with live arms and competent role-players, and their bench is strong.  As usual, the one challenge facing the team is their starting pitching.  Cook and Francis should be able to win a few games, but the rest of the rotation can not be counted on for much more than league-average pitching.  There will be quite a few slugfests in the mountains this season. 

A few more will go their way this time around.     

Prediction:  84-78

Top 10 Prospects
Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Chris Iannetta, C
Ian Stewart, 3B
Dexter Fowler, OF
Franklin Morales, LHP
Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
Jeff Baker, OF
Joe Koshansky, 1B
Greg Reynolds, RHP
Manny Corpas, RHP

Last year: 85-77, 2nd in NL East

Lineup
SS Jimmy Rollins (S)
CF Aaron Rowand (R)
1B Ryan Howard (L)
LF Pat Burrell (R)
2B Chase Utley (L)
3B Wes Helms (R)
RF Shane Victorino (S)
C Rod Barajas (R)

Rotation
Brett Myers
Freddy Garcia
Jamie Moyer
Cole Hamels
Adam Eaton

Closer
Tom Gordon

Remember the Vet? Yeah, I’m trying to forget it too. I saw Nomar’s 6-6 (all singles) game only to leave with my Rudy Seanez (version 1.0) voodoo doll burned in effigy. In case you forgot (lucky!) Rudy can indeed fail, and did that afternoon, giving up a bomb to Todd Pratt in extras for the L. Beyond the trauma, the only other thing I remember about that game is the idiotic player-themed fan groups: “Thome’s Homies,” “Pat’s Bats,” “The Wolf Pack.” Ok, “The Padilla Flotilla” was kind of clever.

There was one different from all the rest. Far away in the furthest reaches of the 700 level there was one shining beam of truth cast upon the astroturf. I squinted, even got up from my seat so that I could be sure the letters weren’t deceiving me, and there…spray painted on a giant bed sheet…was the most genuine and hilarious of clubs: “GENERIC FAN GROUP.” A few dudes were standing around drinking domestic beer and high-fiving at random.

The Phillies have come a long way since then, in both architecture and player development. The offense scored 865 runs and they matched their Pythagorean projection in 2006. If their improved starting pitching comes as advertised, 2007 might be the year they turn the corner.

“Chase Utley” is a pretty good baseball name. It’s no “Enos Slaughter” or even “Raul Casanova” (cue Stu Scott), but it’s certainly sold a few jerseys. However, if I were a Phillies fan I would be a little worried. If my sanity depended on the success of a second baseman signed into his year 35 season I might be concerned. Oh wait, that already happened. The old “hey, its not my money” excuse is bunk. You’re right; it ISN’T your money, but its money that’s not going to be spent elsewhere. Does anyone think that because they locked Utley up until 2057 they’re going to increase total payroll? Will he turn into Rogers Hornsby? Maybe. Will he turn into Carlos Febles? It’s possible. Chase is 28, we all know what happens to players in their thirties. Why a seven year deal? A contract that long would make sense if he’s going to be commanding more than $12 million a year when he’s 35. He’s a helluva player now, but what’s the last seven year contract that wasn’t a mistake? Oh right, they’ve all been mistakes.

My friend Spastic Ric had a significant amount of coin riding on Ryan Howard and the under on 50 dingers in 2006. It looked like a lock at the beginning of the season and he was trumpeting it to the hills throughout the first half. After the All-Star break he slowly quieted down, eventually descending into the depths of depression and by August was routinely observed stomping around Bethlehem, Pennsylvania in the wee hours of the night cursing every man in the Charles Thomas Hall of Fame. Rumor has it he took out his anger on Donovan McNabb’s knee, Kerrigan-style (Nancy, not Joe). Double or nothin’ Ric?

Gillick hasn’t shown Howard the money yet, so he’s still got that fire. In a perfect world, an unnamed Giants jackass player collides with Howard as he’s rounding first base after unnamed jackass player knocks his 713th homer. Unnamed jackass player suffers debilitating and career ending ego injury; Howard goes on to whack 74 dingers in 2007. (Audible sigh)

Jimmy “Do it for the Hoes!” Rollins is also doin’ it for the dolla-dolla-bills ya’ll. He’s wondering why he didn’t get a piece of that Utley pie. Last year he signed a 4/40 contract but if Julio Lugo gets 4/36, Jimmy could have had 4/50 in the new market. You lookin’ for representation Jimmy? Charlie Manuel will bat him leadoff, and Rollins will hack at first pitches on a regular basis. Watching a leadoff hitter with a penchant for swinging at bad pitches (early and often) is a cruel form of torture. On the bright side, Rollins cracked the Top 100 (#99) in P/PA at 3.70. Congrats James.

The outfield is going to be a weakness. Aaron Rowand is still living off his .905 OPS in 2004, but his sixth-sense fielding in center will pay his checks for a few more years. If you’ve never seen him play in person you’re missing out. The next era of media had better include interactive television so I can make the center field camera zoom out to get him in the frame; it seems as though he starts moving before the ball is hit. His injury last year was nothing but a fluke and a return to 2005 form is expected. In right, Shane Victorino is cheap, 27, and last year was his first full season, so an improvement is probable. He had only 33 extra base hits, and in that ballpark a .414 slugging is amateur. An outfield upgrade might need to be addressed mid-season, depending on the fate of their much-maligned left-fielder.

Reason #324 why no-trade clauses are a bad idea: Pat Burrell. If Gillick is able to dump Burrell and his contract ($13m for 2007, $14m for 2008) for any discount he’ll jump at the chance. I mean, for that kind of money he could get a Gil Meche!

The lineup after Rollins gets a little messy. The two-hole could be Rowand or Victorino, neither of which is suited for such an important role. Utley makes sense here, but Howard must bat third and they could be neutralized by a LOOGY late in games. Their most pressing offensive need is a good right-handed corner guy for that two-hole.

Wes Helms is going to get the chance he deserves this year, and could be the right handed hitter Charlie Manuel needs. After Abraham Nunez’s miserable ‘06 campaign Helms will get the majority (if not all) of the at-bats at third. Helm’s OPS (.965) was 4th in baseball last year among third basemen with 200 ABs; ahead of a couple of bums named Alex Rodriguez and David Wright. He’s 30, and has only had one season of 300+
at-bats. Expect big things from him in 2007.

From the cozy humidity of Arlington comes Rod Barajas. The dimensions of Citizens Bank Park shouldn’t worry him much.

Whoever designed that park in Philadelphia was an idiot.
-Peter Gammons

When I own a baseball team, I’m going to put the fences 500 feet away so I can sign all the best pitchers as a discount. Who cares if I’m turning my lineup into 9 Sal Fasanos (sorry Sal’s Pals, salt in the wound)? Everybody plays in the same stadium.

I digress, Gillick’s hands were tied, Barajas was bad last year but the other FA options (Mirabelli, Javy Lopez, Sandy Alomar, Jr.) are filling out their AARP cards. Chris Coste will back-up. Ok former Sal’s Pals, vote on the following: “The Barajas Bananas,” “The Barajas Piranhas” or “Rod’s Wranglers” (if anybody picks Rod’s Wranglers I’m hangin’ it up).

The list of starters should really include Jon Lieber, because he’s still under contract. I foresee an end of spring training dump in typical Gillick panic mode. The little bird is whispering in his ear, “I know you’re getting ants in your pants, but hang onto Jon a little longer that you should, Pat, at least for Eaton insurance.” A lot of teams will be looking for a veteran starter in June, dumping him for bullpen help in April would be a mistake. He won’t turn into Wily Mo Pena, but last year the Sox prematurely shot their wad on Bronson Arroyo, and then they had a mess on their hands (R.I.P. Tobias Funke).

Brett Myers needs to step up and grow up. He’s made at least 31 starts a year since 2003, and averaged around one home run allowed per start. He’s going to have to cut down the dingers if he’s going to break through into the upper echelon of starting pitchers. The 2007 Phillies success will be directly proportional to Myers’. Adam Eaton is a big question mark but was 9-1 with a 3.18 ERA on the Padres in 2005 before he got hurt. Gavin Floyd needed to move on and he brought in Freddy “More Durable than Barbaro” Garcia; few pitchers have been more more consistent than Garcia since 1999 and a move to the National League should boost him slightly. Jamie Moyer is closer than anyone to hitting his age on the radar gun; he’ll be 45 by the end of the year. His preparation and strategy are better than anyone in the game (yes, even Maddux) and he’ll get guys out with the kitchen sink well into his sixties. Entering his third decade in baseball, there’s little reason to believe he’ll be any worse than the first two. Twelve wins and an ERA around 4.50 will be a very nice contribution. Cole Hamels pitched much better after the break last year, increasing his K/BB from 1.83 to 4.21. The skinny lefty looks a little like Casey Fossum, except with an entourage of chicks and enough talent to fill an oil tanker. Every team needs a solid lefty in the rotation; the Phils have two.

The rotation will be better than last year. After the deadline they were Myers, Moyer, Lieber, Hamels and Eude Brito. They’ve added Eaton and Garcia and will have full seasons from lefties Hamels and Moyer with Brito as the long man.

Flash is 39 but he’s only been a full-time reliever since he was 31. Eckersley made the transition at the same age and was an effective (if not dominant) closer until he was 42. With Gordon’s injury history and high stress motion, comparable durability is unlikely. His peripherals have been all over the map but were solid last year. He might have one more season in that 5’9” frame.

The six-fingered man joins Gordon in the bullpen. No, Antonio Alfonseca didn’t kill Inigo Montoya’s father, and he isn’t “prepared to die.” Although he might be prepared to choke in a big game and throw a few to the backstop, as he’s been known to do. He’ll join Ryan Madson and Geoff Geary in the seventh and eighth. Arthur Rhodes has moved on to the Mariners; leaving Fabio Castro (31.2 career IP) and Matt Smith (20.2) as their only available lefties in the pen. I was shocked to learn that Rule 5-er Jim Ed Warden hails from Tennessee; if Tank Johnson can have his first name on his jersey, then Jim Ed should be able to as well. PhuturePhillies makes a good case for his use as a situational righty, but he sounds like a shot in the dark to me. When I hear “situational righty,” I think “waste of roster spot” so look for his return to whence he came.

The Phillies have improved markedly from last season’s solid campaign. The additions of Garcia, Eaton and Moyer will equal 4-6 more wins. If Myers finally puts it all together and Hamels continues on his second half pace the Phils will win the division.

Projection: 93-67

JRoll agrees with me.

2006 Record: 93-69, 1 place AL West 

Projected Lineup:
C Jason Kendall
RF Milton Bradley
LF Nick Swisher
3B Eric Chavez
DH Mike Piazza
1B Dan Johnson
SS Bobby Crosby
CF Mark Kotsay
2B Mark Ellis

Projected Rotation:
Dan Haren
Rich Harden
Joe Blanton
Esteban Loaiza
Joe Kennedy

Closer:
Huston Street

The 2006 version of the Oakland Athletics did what one would expect from a modern A’s team: started off slow, caught fire in the second half, exceeded expectations, won the AL West, and lost in the playoffs.  Despite having an offense that was barely mediocre (9^th out of 14 in runs scored), the A’s won 93 games, fueled by strong pitching and defense. 

Their pitching staff was anchored by the ever-durable (and now very wealthy) Barry Zito, and their offense was led by a surprise monster season from veteran bopper Frank Thomas.  The bad news for the 2007 A’s: both of these players are gone via free-agency.  Barry Zito left for greener pastures, signing the largest pitching contract in baseball history with the cross-town Giants (the dirty hippie just couldn’t leave the Bay Area, could he?), and Frank Thomas left for colder pastures, joining the Toronto offensive juggernaut.

The good news for the A’s: just about every other significant player from the 2006 squad will be returning this year, several of whom had injury shortened or disappointing seasons in 2006, and can be expected to improve.  On the other hand, the A’s are again counting on a couple of players who simply aren’t very good.    

The biggest hole on the 2006 Athletics roster is the void created by my fellow paisan, pitcher Barry Zito.  In his 6 full seasons with Oakland, Zito had averaged 35 starts (!), 223 innings, and a 3.61 ERA; somewhat phenomenal considering the era.  The A’s hope to fill his absence with a guy who wasn’t around too often in 2006: Rich Harden.  Harden’s young career has been highlighted by high expectations, flashes of brilliance, and a boatload of injuries.  He’s sort of the pitching version of JD Drew, without the bad press.  According to manager Bob Geren, Harden will be ready to begin Spring Training in February.  If completely healthy, the 25 year old, carrying a career ERA+ of 123, would fill in adequately for Zito.  However, expecting Harden to make 30+ starts in 2007 is akin to expecting Britney Spears to put on some underwear before leaving the trailer. Probably won’t happen.    

Oakland has another stud in their rotation, and he’s no longer a secret:  Danny Haren, who returns for his 3^rd year with the A’s.  Like Zito, Dan has proven to be remarkably durable, and unlike Zito, Haren has great control and command of three quality pitches.  As the 26 year old right-hander enters his prime, Haren may emerge as the anchor of the rotation with a breakout All-Star caliber season.  If he can keep his HR totals to a reasonable number, expect Haren to enter the Cy Young discussion in 2007.

One of Oakland’s two major disappointments last season was pitcher Joe Blanton.  Blanton, a product of the “Moneyball” draft (i.e. he’s chunky but has good plate discipline), followed up a tremendous rookie year in 2005 with an off-year in 2006, in which his WHIP increased from 1.22 to 1.54.  The good news is Blanton managed to stay relatively healthy and win 16 games, but the bad news is his K rate was a paltry 4.96.  Judging by the BABIP for 2005 and 2006 (.241 and .320 respectively), there is some serious evidence that his 2005 success was a tad fluky.  Blanton does have good stuff, a fastball in the low 90’s and a plus 12-6 curve, but he will have to keep the ball out of the zone a bit more and start missing more bats to thrive as a solid MLB starter.

Bringing up the rear of the rotation, we have Esteban Loaiza and Joe Kennedy.  Loaiza, as he always is, will be a wildcard in 2007.  In the past 5 years, his yearly performances have been terrible, outstanding, poor, pretty good, and mediocre, respectively.  Interestingly, his K rate seems to fluctuate accordingly: (5.18, 8.23, 5.75, 7.18, 5.64).  While it would be silly to expect a repeat of the 2003 season in which he finished 2^nd in AL Cy Young voting, it would not be hard to imagine the 35 year old veteran pitching close to 200 above-average innings.  He sports a decent cut-fastball as well as 3 other pitches, and manages to throw strikes without yielding many HRs. 

Joe Kennedy, when he wasn’t busy vacationing at the family complex in Hyannis, pitched well for the A’s out of the bullpen in limited action in 2006.  Kennedy was recently signed to a 1 year deal worth $2.8 million, and is the favorite to win the final rotation job as of this writing.  Kennedy’s left-handedness is a point in his favor, as Zito’s departure leaves the rotation without another lefty.  His primary competition, Kirk Saarloos, held down the fort as a spot starter in 2006, but the general consensus is that Kennedy has the better stuff and potential.

The biggest strength of the 2006 A’s looks to remain strong in ’07, a bullpen anchored by 9^th inning phenom Huston Street.  The 23 year old boasts a 180 ERA+ in his 149 MLB innings.  Street struggled a bit against lefties in 2006 (.761 OPS against, compared .512 versus righties), but he is still learning to handle the strike zone when facing the left-handed boppers of the AL.   Despite ending the season on an embarrassingly sour note: yielding a historic season ending HR to Magglio Ordonez to end the 2006 ALCS, look for the closer to come back with numbers somewhere in-between his rookie and sophomore campaigns.   

The Oakland bullpen is equipped with more arms than a Hindu god.  In addition to their closer, the A’s have a trio of right handed relievers who managed an ERA+ over 130 last season: Justin Duchscherer (152), Chad Gaudin (143), and Kiko Calero (130).  Duchscherer, 29, was drafted originally by the Red Sox in 1996, but was dealt for Doug Mirabelli (Part I).  In his career with the A’s, he has emerged as one of the best middle relievers in the AL over the past 3 years.  In fact, if I really felt like playing the role of the pathetically miserable Red Sox fan, I could argue that the best middle relievers in each league were both traded by the Sox for Doug Mirabelli, on two separate occurrences.  Well, we did get some value from Mirabelli in his first tenure, but I digress.  Point is, Duchscherer can throw.

On the surface, 23 year old Chad Gaudin’s 2006 numbers look impressive: 55 games, 64 innings pitched, a 3.09 ERA. However, there is one major red flag here: 36/42 K/BB.  That’s not a typo, he walked more people than he struck out.  The control issues are uncharacteristic; he never displayed any serious issues in his brief major league career, or in the minors.  Look for him to come down to earth a bit in 2007, but nothing too drastic; the crazy peripherals appear to be an outlier.

Kiko Calero, one of the treasures acquired when the A’s sacked Busch Stadium, barbarically raping and pillaging the St. Louis front office in December of 2004, is perhaps the foremost swing-and-miss reliever on the roster.  With a career K/9 of 10.1, and an arsenal featuring a hard cutter, hard curve, and deceiving changeup, Calero forms an ominous bridge to Huston Street in the 9^th inning.

The lefty situation in Oakland is an interesting one.  Assuming Joe Kennedy makes the rotation, 26 year old Brad Halsey will be the lone returning lefty in the bullpen.  However, the A’s also signed 37 year old veteran reliever Alan Embree to a minor league contract.  Assuming the A’s go with 11 pitchers, one of these two will be the odd man out.  Embree’s performance is generally tough to predict, as he is rather old, and not the most consistent fellow, but he was very effective for San Diego in 2006. Brad Hasley was barely average in the pen and as a spot starter in 2006, and should not be considered an effective lefty-specialist candidate.  He actually had a bit of a reverse split last season (.924 OPS vs LH, .750 vs RH), and his 3 year splits against lefties are nearly as ugly as those against the right-handers.  One more variable to add: a dark horse.  Jay Marshall was selected by the A’s in the Rule 5 draft, from the White Sox.  Marshall is a bit of a long shot, considering he’s never pitched above high-A ball, but he is a left-handed reliever.  His numbers last year in high-A Winston-Salem are all fairly impressive, but one stat in particular stands out: Marshall held left-handers to a .096 batting average in 2006.  The 23 year old will get a look this spring, in the event that both Embree and Halsey are unimpressive. 

In his first and only season with the Oakland Athletics, Frank Thomas mashed to the tune of .270/.381/.545 with 39 HRs, sending a giant “F.U.” to his embittered ex-GM Kenny Williams in Chicago.  While the loss of Thomas leaves a giant, gaping, festering wound in the roster, Billy Beane replaces one future Hall of Famer with another Future Hall of Famer: Mike Piazza.  The longtime NL superstar signed a 1 year $8.5 million dollar deal, and is coming off a year in which he posted an .843 OPS while spending 99 of his 126 behind the plate for the Padres.  Piazza, who probably should have been converted to 1B at age 25, will be used strictly as a DH in Oakland.  While he shouldn’t be counted on to produce like the Big Hurt, it is reasonable to expect him to produce at roughly the same level as he did last year, perhaps with a slight improvement on 2006, considering he will no longer be donning the tools of ignorance.

Speaking of the tools of ignorance, Jason Kendall will return as the primary catcher for Oakland.  Kendall is a unique type of catcher, a guy who hits singles and occasionally steals bases, but has virtually no power.  He is a contact hitter with decent plate discipline, and could lead off.  However, his lack of power has become a bit of a crutch, as Kendall has posted 3 straight seasons with an on-base percentage higher than his slugging percentage.  Vying for the backup role is Adam Melhuse, the 35 year old incumbent who led the mutiny against ousted manager Ken Macha last season, and 27 year old Jeremy Brown, who was immortalized in Billy Beane’s epic literary masterpiece (sic).  Jeremy could likely out-hit Melhuse at this point, but Melhuse is much more experienced, and obviously more familiar with the current pitching staff.  Typically, the old salty Crash Davis type tends to win the backup catching job over the young unproven stud, but it will still be an interesting little spring subplot. 

The starting infield from 2006 will return intact, a tandem of 4 players who all had very disappointing seasons last year.  Eric Chavez hit .241, his lowest batting average in the majors, and posted a mediocre 106 OPS+ for the second straight season.  The carnage was the worse at SS, where the oft-injured Bobby Crosby had a disgustingly abysmal season.  Crosby, apparently possessed by The Ghost of Jackie Gutierrez, hit .229/.298/.338 in limited action.  Second baseman Mark Ellis came off a surprisingly productive 2005 campaign only to sputter in 2006 (.249/.319/.385), and Dan Johnson also slipped from a decent rookie year in 2005, posted a sub-par OPS+ of 85.  What can we expect from these guys in 2007?  All are healthy, and all appear to be a safe bet to improve upon their 2006 totals.  Both ZiPS and PECOTA are projecting significant improvements in 2007 for all 4 infielders (both projections systems yield similar results, except in the case of Bobby Crosby: PECOTA is a bit more bullish on the SS). 

Backing up the middle-infielders in 2006 was Marco Scutaro, who provided above average play as a stand-in for both Crosby and Ellis.  It is likely that the A’s begin the year with Scutaro as the only backup option at 2B, SS, and 3B, and use him in the likely event of an injury up the middle.  Piazza or Nick Swisher could be used to occasionally spell Johnson at 1B.  Daric Barton, the organization’s top hitting prospect, will be showcased this spring, but will be best served with a full season in the PCL, and a taste of The Show in September.

While Oakland’s infield suffered a serious power outage in 2006, the outfield did their best to pick up the slack.  Nick Swisher followed up a solid rookie year with a breakout season, slamming 35 HRs with an OBP of .372.  Although Swisher played a bunch of games at 1B in 2006, Billy Beane has gone on record with his plan to use the slugger primarily in left field this season.  Mark Kotsay will once again patrol CF in the shadow of Mount Davis (assuming the Lastings Milledge trade rumors don’t come to fruition.)  Kotsay is normally an average offensive outfielder, but his offense has been gradually declining: OPS+ in 2004-2006: 114, 95, 89.  Kotsay is 32 and has been increasingly brittle in recent years, making CF possibly the most glaring weakness on the team.  If Kotsay can provide replacement-level offense at the bottom of the order and competent defense up the middle, Oakland should be satisfied.  Oakland will be counting on a full healthy year from their volcanic right fielder, Milton Bradley.  When healthy, Milton can provide similar numbers to Nick Swisher: solid power with excellent plate discipline.  If he can avoid the DL and the wrath of the umpires, Milton could be a crucial cog near the top of the A’s lineup. 

The A’s will likely begin the season with 5 outfielders, with Bobby Kielty and yet another Rule 5 selection, this one from Cleveland: Ryan Goleski.  Kielty has proven to be a very useful backup, a replacement-level switch hitter who saw significant time in both corner outfield spots last season.  Goleski split the 2006 in between A and AA in the Indians system, combining for 27 HRs and an OPS around 1.000.  He is 25 years old, so there’s no risk in rushing him.  However, he did have wrist surgery in 2006, and may not be ready for spring training.  A DL stint would allow Oakland to hang onto him without keeping him on the roster (the Adam Stern rule), so don’t expect him back in Cleveland anytime soon. 

Last year, the Oakland A’s were remarkably successful, given the various setbacks to the team in 2006.  Considering this, one might assume that they should be able to waltz to 90+ wins with normal luck in 2007, even after losing Zito and Howard.

Not so fast.  Perhaps the A’s weren’t as unlucky as we would like to think in 2006.  Their Pythagorean record was 85-77, which they outpaced by 8 wins.  Their manager, Ken Macha was dismissed (primarily for personality reasons) after leading an overachieving team to the second round of the playoffs.  He is replaced by Bob Geren, a 45 year-old bench coach with zero MLB managing experience.  Can Geren duplicate Macha’s success with a roster which is, on paper, weaker than that of last season?  The team was hurt by devastating injuries in 2006, but will 2007 be any different? 

This year will be an interesting one for the Athletics.  The Angels and the Rangers both look tougher than they were in 2006.  Oakland has young talent all over the field, but there are health-related question marks, and there are performance-related question marks.  Can Rich Harden actually stay healthy?  Can Peter Gammons’ version of Bobby Crosby come back?  Is Eric Chavez now a JAG (Just Another Guy)?  Like every pre-season, Oakland will have their doubters.

I’m one of them. 

Prediction: 83-79

Top 10 Prospects:
Daric Barton 1B
Travis Buck OF
Jermaine Mitchell OF
Mac Suzuki C
Matt Suletnic OF
Trevor Cahill RHP
Javier Herrera OF
Craig Italiano RHP
Marcus McBeth RHP
Justin Sellers SS

They’re back, my friends.

Starting tomorrow, Jimmy, Zach, and I will be previewing all 30 teams in the MLB for you guys to digest, learn from, laugh at, and hopefully steal the good stuff (while ignoring where we were way off).

We’re gonna hit you with some Oakland tomorrow (by Jimmy), Philadelphia Thursday (by Zach) and then my Brewers preview for the weekend on Friday.

Also, check out the Deweys House Rankings of the Best Red Sox at every position that we’ve been running over the last two weeks.

Summery
Starting pitchers
Closers
Catchers
First Base
Second Base
Third Base
Shortstop
Left field
Center field

In an effort to consolidate our All-Time lists, here is a summary:

First Team (Boston)

C Carlton Fisk
1B Jimmie Foxx
2B Bobby Doerr
3B Wade Boggs
SS Nomar Garciaparra
LF Ted Williams
CF Tris Speaker
RF Dwight Evans

SP1 Roger Clemens
SP2 Pedro Martinez
SP3 Cy Young
CL Dick Radatz

Second Team (Pawtucket)

C Rough Carrigan
1B Mo Vaughn
2B Billy Goodman
3B Jimmy Collins
SS Joe Cronin
LF Carl Yastremski
CF Fred Lynn
RF Harry Hooper

SP1 Babe Ruth
SP2 Lefty Grove
SP3 Luis Tiant
CL Ellis Kinder

Third Team (Portland)

C Jason Varitek
1B Mike Stanley
2B Pete Runnels
3B Frank Malzone
SS Johnny Pesky
LF Manny Ramirez
CF Dom Dimaggio
RF Jackie Jensen

SP1 Joe Wood
SP2 Mel Parnell
SP3 Tim Wakefield
CL Bob Stanley

Fourth Team (Lancaster)

C Rick Ferrell
1B Kevin Millar
2B Mike Andrews
3B Larry Gardner
SS Rico Petrocelli
LF Jim Rice
CF Reggie Smith
RF Tony Conigliaro

SP1 Bill Monbouquette
SP2 Dennis Eckersley
SP3 Frank Sullivan
CL Derek Lowe

Fifth Team (Greenville)

C Wally Schang
1B George Scott
2B Jerry Remy
3B Bill Mueller
SS Rick Burleson
LF Duffy Lewis
CF Chick Stahl
RF Trot Nixon

SP1 Bruce Hurst
SP2 Dutch Leonard
SP3 Carl Mays
CL Tom Gordon

Of course, more fun could be had with this.  More questions could be raised:
 
What would the batting orders be? 
Could the #1 Sox squad beat the #1 Yankees squad? 
Could ANY other #2 team beat the Sox #2 team?
Who would the Top 5 managers be?
Who were the Top 5 DH’s (I’m pretty sure about #1, the rest, I’d have to really think about).

These are questions for another day, as Spring 2007 is almost here. 

 

The Boston Red Sox are generally known as a team of large sluggers: hulking, awkward stiffs with stone hands, lead feet, and platinum bats.  This has been the perception for roughly 75 years.    However, you wouldn’t know this by glancing at the list of top pitchers in team history.  The top five guys here are among the immortals of the sport, all among the top 10 or 20 players in the history of Major League Baseball.

As before, I take into account the player’s career in a Red Sox uniform only.  Therefore, no Seaver, no Cone, no Saberhagen, no Kiecker, ect. 

One more note: I realize there is a school of thought that is hesitant to compare guys like Cy Young to guys like Tim Wakefield, because if Cy Young were alive today, he might not even make a major league baseball team.  While that may or may not be true, ranking only modern players is simply not as interesting.  Therefore, I’ll cover the whole spectrum, using era-adjusted stats as a benchmark.

I had fun compiling this list, some very colorful characters throughout.  In the interest of brevity (we start our team previews very soon), I didn’t go into as much detail on the well-known guys at the top of the list.  I concentrated more on the guys who you may not know.  I’ll get right to it. 

15. Carl Mays.

Carl is best known for killing a man with a pitch, but he did this while playing for the Yankees (obviously), so we’ll ignore that for the purpose of this analysis.  Mays threw with a distinct submarine style, and was known for his sharp, moving fastball.  He began his career with Boston and spent 5 seasons here, pitching All-Star quality baseball for 4 of those years.  However, he was one of several notable players shipped from Boston to New York, and like those other notable players, he enjoyed better years on the Yankees.  Based on his numbers alone, Mays might qualify for the Hall of Fame.  However, the killing and game-fixing allegations have clouded his reputation.  Dr. Charles Steinberg wasn’t around to handle his PR, unfortunately.

Note: Mays narrowly edges Curt Schilling, Tex Hughson, Rube Foster, and Wes Ferrell.

14. Dutch Leonard.

There were actually 2 Dutch Leonards in MLB history.  One was a righty knuckleball artist, the other (this guy) was a lefty spitballer.  Leonard primarily threw the spitball to compliment his fastball and curve, and MLB actually allowed him (as well as a few other guys) to continue to throw the saliva-covered pitch after it was banned.  While his aggregate numbers are only moderately impressive, his 1914 season was nothing short of mind-blowing.  In a MLB slightly weakened by the rival Federal League, Dutch led the league in ERA, with an astounding 0.96!  (Astounding even by dead-ball standards; it works out to a 279 ERA+) This was, and still is, an all-time record.

Like Mays, Leonard was also rumored to have been involved with game-fixing.  Hey, who are you to judge him?!  Ballplayers weren’t paid very well back then.  Get off your soapbox, Kenesaw. 

13. Bruce Hurst.

Hurst is a guy who makes the list on the merits of his consistency, rather than his peaks.  He did have one excellent season in 1986, but for the most part, Hurst was a workhorse who could be counted on for 200 quality innings, at or slightly above league average.  A deceptive lefty with a killer pick-off move, Hurst was the 2^nd best pitcher on the team for several years, next to Roger Clemens. 
Hurst was actually named the 1986 World Series MVP, moments before the disastrous Game 6 loss.  Boy, was his face red. 

12. Frank Sullivan.

A towering righty known for a deceptive fastball and curve, Sullivan is one of the most underrated players in Red Sox history, and likely the least-known character on this list.  For a 4 year stretch, Sullivan was one of the premier right-handers in the game, and was the anchor of a mid-50’s rotation on some very mediocre Red Sox teams.  Sullivan made 2 All-Star games (in one of which he served up a walk-off homer to Stan Musial). 

Frank was immortalized by Norman Rockwell’s famous painting “The Rookie”, which depicts the starter, along with Ted Williams, glaring menacingly at a hapless rookie in the clubhouse.

11. Dennis Eckersley.

Of course, Eckersley is known primarily for his Hall of Fame-quality work in the Oakland Bullpen.  Long before he terrorized the American League in the late 80’s/early 90’s as baseball’s premier closer, Eck was the rotation ace of the dynamic Red Sox teams of the late 70’s.  Twice he finished in the top 10 of Cy Young Award voting, and was a 20 game winner in 1978.

However, overuse had perhaps taken a toll on Eckersley’s arm.  Between age 22 and 24, Eck had averaged 254 innings per season, and his fastball was not the same going into the 1980’s.  He floundered for a few more years as a starter on the Red Sox and Cubs, before Tony LaRussa changed Eck’s role, as well as his place in history.

10. Bill Monbouquette.

A local guy from Medford, Bill had the misfortune of being the ace of the Sox during perhaps their bleakest time, the early 60’s.  However, that did not stop “Monbo” from making three All Star teams and recording 20 wins in 1963 (over 25% of the team’s win total that season).  His success was primarily due to pinpoint control, despite the fact that he threw a no-hitter and recorded a 17 K game while with the Sox.    
Monbouquette was, on certain days, one of the best hitters in the Red Sox lineup.  This speaks more to the weakness of the offense than it does to Monbo’s slugging abilities. 

9. Tim Wakefield.

If you had told me in 1994 that I would be ranking this man in the Top 10 of Red Sox pitchers, I would have kindly asked you to pass the opium pipe, please.  Yet, here we are, and Wake has cemented his name on the list.  He was “great” in only 2 seasons, but he’s had about 7 years in which he was “good”.  Extremely versatile, Wake has seen just about every pitching role: ace, workhorse, mop-up guy, even closer.  With a couple more good years, Wakefield could very well move up another notch or two before he’s done.

8. Mel Parnell.

A southern gentleman from The Big Easy, Mel holds most of the team records for left-handed pitchers.  The two-time All-Star didn’t crack the Boston rotation until he was 26 years old, but was the ace of the team for a 6 year stretch in the late 40’s/early 50’s. 

Mel was a 25 game winner in 1949 (amazingly, he had more walks than strikeouts that season).

7. “Smokey” Joe Wood.

Like a bolt of lightning, Smokey Joe’s pitching career was brief, yet explosive.  The fearsome right-hander won 34 games in 1912 (as well as the World Series MVP), and was the second best pitcher in the league for a stretch in the 1910’s (the best being the immortal “Big Train” Walter Johnson).  However, a thumb injury and enormous inning totals eventually took their toll, and Wood’s pitching career faded away.  Wood later became an outfielder for the Cleveland Indians, and was quite good (career OPS+ of 110).

He is one of my favorite historical characters (my screen name on John Sickles’ www.minorleagueball.com site is ”SmokeyJoeWood”).    

6. Luis Tiant.

Along with David Ortiz, Tiant will go down as one of the greatest “scrap-heap” finds in team history.  In 1971, 30 year old Luis was released twice, by the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins.  The Sox took a gamble and signed the injury plagued former ace.  Tiant would go on to pitch 8 seasons for Boston, winning 20 games in 3 of them.  Tiant’s most memorable moments were in the postseason of 1975, where he pitched 34 innings, won 4 games, and yielded a 2.65 ERA.  A fan favorite known for his unorthodox 180-degree delivery, Tiant is an oft debated Hall of Fame candidate.  As of right now, he’s still on the waiting list.

5. Lefty Grove.

Probably the best left-handed pitcher of all-time, Lefty has his best seasons on Connie Mack’s Philadelphia “White Elephant” A’s.  However, the legend was no slouch for Boston, making 5 straight All-Star teams in the twilight of his long career. 

4. Babe Ruth.

George Herman Ruth was actually quite physically fit and handsome while he was a pitcher for the Red Sox.  He really let himself go in New York.

I love this photo of Ruth.  Let me say that I find the whole ”curse” thing as silly as you probably do…but, this photo.  It honestly looks like he is glaring right into your soul. 

“You’ll be sorry, Boston.  You’ll be ****ing sorry.” 

3. Cy Young.

He doesn’t really measure up to the two guys ahead of him, simply because he never managed to win a Cy Young award.  The voters must have had it out for him.

2. Pedro Martinez.

Oh boy.  This is where it gets interesting.  The whole “Pedro versus Clemens” debate has been beaten to death in every Red Sox forum and in every Boston bar room.  The crux of the debate comes down to one thing: Peak versus Career.  Pedro Martinez represents “Peak”.  He had a six year stretch in Boston that is undeniably better than any stretch by any other pitcher, in history.  His 1999 and 2000 seasons could be the two greatest seasonal performances by a pitcher in history.  His career ERA+ is currently #1, in history.  The pitcher with the majestic arsenal of lightning-quick fastballs and physics-violating changeups certainly has an argument for #1.  However, on my list, durability plays a major role, and Pedro (for now) takes the passenger seat.

1. Roger Clemens.

This may not be the popular choice for King of Red Sox Pitchers.  Alas, I am ranking these guys with my head, and not my heart.  While pitching for Boston, Clemens had 9 or 10 seasons in which he was great, and 2 or 3 seasons in which he was merely “good”.  Even if you were to erase the seasons he pitched for Toronto, New York, and Houston, The Rocket would still rank among the greatest pitchers in history. 

In my mind, it is undeniable. 

Clemens is the greatest pitcher who ever lived.               

Notable Omissions (in no particular order):
Bill Lee: overrated, due to quirky personality.
Curt Schilling: close, but needs more than just 2 good seasons.  Probably pops in at around #13 at this time next year.
Tex Hughson: Pitched in a weakened league during WWII.
Jim Lonborg: 1967 was memorable, but his only good season.
Rube Foster: wasn’t around long enough.
Wes Ferrell: wasn’t on the Sox long enough.

BONUS:
Closers – I described them in detail here, but I’ll go ahead and rank the top 5:
5. Tom Gordon
4. Derek Lowe        
3. Bob Stanley
2. Ellis Kinder     
1. Dick Radatz

After a multi-hour respite, check out my related pieces on Sox center fielders.

5. Trot Nixon

This picture pretty much encapsulates the Trot Nixon experience in Boston. He’s grimly determined, and giving it his all. His dive is max-effort. However, he has no elevation there, his glove is turned the wrong way, and he likely under-dove the ball. Played hard and played stupid. When he was good, he was very good…hitting righties at the same quality as such names as Barry Bonds and others. But long term readers know all too well what I think about Nixon’s deficiencies…there is no point to rehash them again.

With Nixon signing with the Indians this winter, he officially ended the Lou Gorman influence on the team…he was the last hold over. He also hands over the Organizational Soldier award to Tim Wakefield. Back when he was healthy and could actually move around a bit, he played a fair amount of center field.

4. Tony Conigliaro

He really is the ultimate ‘woulda coulda shoulda’ in Red Sox history. What could have been, if not for a Jack Hamilton fastball? Conig was no stranger to the injury bug before he was beaned, but the injuries were a broken arm in 64, and a broken wrist in 65 (actually, almost exactly one year apart)…not exactly nagging, chronic injury. He hit his 100th home run when he was 22, and tragically hit only 67 more in his career.

Of course, Tony C was beloved for being a hell of a hitter, and a local boy to boot, and he was compared to Yaz in the same manner of the ubiquitous Manny/Trot comparisons 35 years later. It’s kind of appropriate that the legend of Yaz was built on Tony C’s shoulders. If Conig doesn’t go down in August 67, then the pennant situation likely isn’t as dire (though he was good in 68, Hawk Harrelson was awful down the stretch in 67), and we don’t hear about how the Sox offense was a one-man show in September of that year. With a healthy Conigliaro, it’s likely that the Sox go into that weekend with a game or two in hand, also, which would have sucked the drama out of a memorable pennant race.

3. Jackie Jensen

Jensen is a hard player to actually write about, so here are some notes I have on him:
*Played in the Rose Bowl for Cal.
*Won the First College World Series, beating a Yale team with GHW Bush.
*All American halfback.
*Played for Yankees as DiMaggio’s backup.
*Played for the Senators and was their best hitter.
*Focus of Sox offense when Ted Williams was in Korea.
*Won the 1958 MVP.
*Retired at 32 because he was afraid to fly.

2. Harry Hooper

If you look back on the left fielder thing I wrote, I could basically flip the Duffy Lewis comment over here for Harry Hooper. That Sox outfield had three guys that could play center field, at least anecdotally. Hooper was an interesting character because there was a lot of Mike Mussina in him…he had a civil engineering degree from St. Mary’s, not exactly something that a ballplayer would have today. He could have easily been an engineer, but baseball paid better, even then.

Truth be told, he should be the #1 rightfielder in Sox history. Not only did he play forever, but he was a very good hitter and a great fielder. But there is a very good reason he’s not the top ranked right fielder…

1. Dwight Evans

My homage to Rolling Stone picking ‘Like a Rolling Stone’ by Dylan and ‘Can’t Get No (Satisfaction)’ by the Rolling Stones song’s 1/2 in their list of 500 best pop songs a few years ago.

I mean, look at the site name.

You can read the left fielder report I posted today right here

5. Chick Stahl

If I’ve been guilty of one thing during my half of this exercise, it’s that I tend to err on the side of a popular player that would have had more name recognition, either because of his spot in Bostonian Sportslore, or he played within the memories of the people reading.

Chick Stahl is a minor blip in Red Sox history, if only because he played so long ago, and that blip centers around how he died (he drank carbonic acid, saying that the strain of managing the team drove him to it) more than his playing career. However, Stahl was a typical very good dead ball hitter, hitting 282/341/384 in an environment that decreased run scoring by 8% over AL historic average, and was the focal point of the Boston offense during the aughts. The man I thought would be on this list, Johnny Damon, isn’t because he doesn’t quite measure up to Stahl’s quality, or quantity (Stahl had about 700 more PA’s than Damon). That’s enough for me to put my nostalgia aside.

4. Reggie Smith

Reggie Smith is firmly entrenched on the list of players that either started or ended their career in Boston while finding their glory days elsewhere. That obfuscates the fact that he was pretty damn good while in Fenway. A converted infielder, Smith was a rookie in 1967, and was frequently the second or third best hitter on the team after Yaz.

Smith was a main character in Howard Bryant’s book on Bostonian athletic racial history, Shut Out, mostly because he experienced the racism that was the center of the book’s theme. He was never embraced by the fans, because he wasn’t a David Ortiz or Mo Vaughn type…he was a quiet, seemingly overly sensitive type that was called Carl Reggie Smith, according to Bryant, because he tried to be ‘white’ (Carl is also his birth name, and the name of Yaz of course). It’s tough for me to determine how much of Bryant’s book was based on the actuality of racism in Boston, or how much was just the perception that Boston was racist, so boom…everything is a slight of black players. Either way, Reggie Smith’s non-baseball career in Boston is a perfect symbol of the growing de-romanticization of the Yawkey era.

3. Dominic DiMaggio

Boston’s own Radar O’Reilly really did his best to give Ted Williams gaudy RBI totals. He was the prototype big-run era leadoff man, getting on base, causing general havoc and scoring boatloads of runs in front of the boppers.

Although Williams is generally cited as a player that lost a great deal of his career numbers to war service, DiMaggio and Johnny Pesky did also. DiMaggio lost his age 26-28 seasons to WWII, hitting .286/.364/.437 before he left, and .316/.393/.427 when he got back. There is really no way of even being able to estimate what exactly he lost to military service, but I think it’s safe to say that he would be a better known player in his own right, rather than just Joe DiMaggio’s brother that wore the glasses.

2. Fred Lynn

The younger, better half of the Gold Dust Twins, from the stories I hear, Fred Lynn was the most mimicked player of young Red Sox fans from the 70’s. Ichiro stole his one, singular place in history as the only player to win the double MVP/ROY, but Lynn was a better pick to win the MVP in 1975 than Ichiro was in 2001. As great as his 1975 was, he was even better in 1979, when he finished fourth in the MVP voting. He was primed to be one of the all-time greats…

Until the offseason of 1980-1981 came around and the Sox lost him and Carlton Fisk to rival American League clubs. It’s become a convention, among Red Sox fans anyway, that says that Lynn would have been in the Hall of Fame if he continued his career in Boston. There is no way of telling, but it’s not like he fell off the table when he went to California. He never had a season like his 75 or his 79, but he had a lot of seasons like his 76 or 78, and probably wouldn’t have been all that much better in Fenway. His numbers might have looked a little sexier, but it’s doubtful Lynn would have been enshrined if he played his whole career in Boston.

The one piece of baseball history that Lynn can hold on to is that he still is the only man to ever hit a grand slam in an All Star game, which he did in 1983 (sorry, Atlee).

1. Tris Speaker

The Grey Eagle was the best Red Sox that might have been in the KKK. If you read his comment in the Bill James’ latest Historical Baseball Abstract, he talks about the possibility of Speaker being a Klansman, along with future Supreme Court Justice Hugo Black. I don’t know if it’s true…nor do I care, it’s an interesting socio-political story. Anyway, Larry Doby said that Speaker was incredible to him while he was adjusting to life as a Cleveland big leaguer, so if Speaker was inherently racist, it mellowed by the time the 1950’s rolled around.

Speaker gets me thinking about legends. History is littered with them, but usually it’s for more important pursuits than baseball…there are very few Robert Oppenheimer’s or Napoleon Bonaparte’s in baseball that completely bend history, either for the negative or the positive. But because of the nature of sports, there is a mythic quality that is untouched by character flaws that our historical legends don’t have access too. Ty Cobb was a racist and a prick, but his on-the-field persona has held up his greatness, while there is some tarnish on men like Franklin Roosevelt for not being able to keep his pants on. I don’t know if it’s because it’s easier to connect to sports figures as people, or if it’s because our expectations are lower, so we are more able to give them a pass.

Here we are in the fifth installment of our series on the best the Red Sox have had at each position. As an added President’s Day bonus for you folks, this one covers all three outfielder positions and a blurb on the DH (there have been very few DH’s in Red Sox history that have the request 1000 plate appearances).

Without further adieu…

Left field:
5. Duffy Lewis

The left flank of what is considered by some to be one of the best defensive outfields of all time (Lewis/Speaker/Hooper), Duffy could handle the bat too. He hit .298/.340/.398 in the Dead Ball era, which against looks worse than the actual value he contributed to the ball club.

Lewis, of course, pre-dated the Monster, but he didn’t have it easy out there. As I’m sure you know, there was a 10 foot embankment in left field where the wall now stands, that was called Duffy’s Cliff. Picture something like what they have in center in Houston, only the peak is 10’. The point is before that, the Sox played in Huntington Avenue Grounds, where Duffy played his first two seasons. The dimensions look completely foreign now, 350’ down the line, 440’ to left center, and 530’ to center. Lewis and Speaker covered that whole area. Dead ball or not, that’s a lot of doubles and triples that died in their gloves.

4. Jim Rice

Sacrilege!!! He’s a Hall of Famer, kept out only by those dastardly reporters that refused to vote for him because he’s a jerk! Sarcasm aside, Jim Rice’s attributes and flaws have been well documented by both his detractors and his advocates. I think Rice was a very good hitter, but had obvious flaws. He couldn’t get on base consistently enough if hits weren’t dropping in. He had tremendous strength, but not tremendous power. He ran well enough to twice hit 15 triples in a season, but not well enough later in his career to stay out of leading the world in double plays. His career was essentially over at 35.

Rice was a very good player, and he was great in 77-79, 1983, and 1986. But he wasn’t a great player.

3. Manny Ramirez

Take the whole package, and there are very few ways that Rice outpaces Manny, which is why I have Ramirez ranked higher than him (shockingly enough). What isn’t so clear is just how much better Ramirez’s stick is than Rice’s was. Bear with me, as I set up a statistical context.

These numbers are adjusted for league and park. Using runs created, you can actually estimate things like how many runs a team of that player would score in a game (RC/27) and things like that. Now, you can create an estimate for what an offense made up of players of that skill set would score…basically, the yearly output for a season of nine Manny Ramirez’s or nine Jim Rice’s. Manny, for his Red Sox career only, would be 1216 runs per year. Rice’s, even with his huge years, would be 909. Does it mean anything significant? Not really…just a fun little look. But it does illuminate the gap between the two guys with the bat.

2. Carl Yastrzemski

He played forever, had some years that paled in comparison to his legendary 1967, and followed Ted Williams, so if it can be believed, Yaz is actually probably underrated by Red Sox fans. He was a legitimate great player…to the point that if Yaz had Rice’s career (ages 22-36) and posted his numbers (Yastrzemski) for those years, he would be a slam dunk Hall of Famer.

Yaz’s place in history will always be linked to both Ted Williams and Jim Rice. He didn’t have the all-around ability of Williams, or the power that Rice had, and he was built like today’s second basemen, but he played the Wall better than anyone, and was a pretty damn good hitter in his own right.

1. Ted Williams

There are no original words I can use to express the player that had the best career as a Red Sox (Ruth really keeps him from being the best player ever to put on the Sox uniform). He’s as much a popular culture icon as a baseball player, and the only member of the oft-mentioned Boston Sports Parthenon that never won a title.

He cast a shadow on the Red Sox, even in retirement, that Yastrzemski could never escape and Rice and Manny could never touch. To that end, it’s almost sacrilegious to mention his name as a comparison to other Red Sox players. And because of the whole “heir apparent” link to Yaz, Captain Carl is afforded almost the same respect. This is why I mentioned Jim Rice in all of the comments…he is the romantic benchmark to Red Sox left fielders. Though there are some people that idolized him, they never worshiped him, and when speaking about players like Duffy Lewis and Manny Ramirez and Mike Greenwell, it’s best to compare them to mortals.