Schilling in 2008?
In case you haven’t heard (in which case, you either live under a rock, or you’ve sold your radio and TV for crack…either way, I recommend a lifestyle change), Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling recently went on record, stating that he plans on returning for at least one more season in 2008.
It has also been implied that the right-hander would like to have a deal done before the 2007 season begins, with a similar salary to what he currently earns. In 2008, Curt will be pitching at the remarkable age of 41. Last year, when he was 39, he pitched very well, with an adjusted ERA+ of 116 in 204 innings. Now, can Curt conceivably keep this type of performance up at age 41? He did prove to be extremely durable last season, but the volatility of performance between age 39 and age 41 tends to be very high.
Just for a simple comparison, here is the list of starting pitchers in baseball history who, at age 41 or older, have posted an ERA+ of 116 or above:
Cy Young, 194
Hoyt Wilhelm, 173
Ted Lyons, 171
Eddie Plank, 146
Roger Clemens, 145
Nolan Ryan, 138
Connie Marrero, 129
Warren Spahn, 124
Jack Quinn, 123
Pete Alexander, 118
Kenny Rogers, 118
Randy Johnson, 117
Phil Niekro, 116
Young, Alexander, Plank, Quinn, and Lyons are all deadball era pitchers (que the ragtime-style fast piano and flapper girls), and thus, not a good comparison. Scratch them from the list.
Wilhelm and Niekro were knuckleballers. Marrero was a pseudo-knuckleballer, with the occasional slow curve. Neither relied on their hard stuff. Scratch ’em.
So who does that leave us?
Roger Clemens
Warren Spahn
Nolan Ryan
Kenny Rogers
Randy Johnson
That’s it. Five pitchers in recent baseball history (“recent” being a loose term with Spahn). Four of those guys are Cooperstown-quality. The fifth, Kenny Rogers, is more of a finesse lefty, the likes of whom tend to have success after 40 (see David Wells and Jamie Moyer).
This is a fun little analysis, but keep in mind, it has little predictive value. Clemens and Ryan pitched well after age 41, whereas Randy fell of a cliff (and hit a few ugly branches on the way down). Every individual pitcher is different.
My main point is to show how rare it is to see a pitcher carry this type performance through his age 41 season. If Schilling does it, he will be in some elite company. In the meantime, the front office now has another decision to make.
I don’t envy them.
This is a no brainer, sign the guy, at worst, excluding a career ending injury, the man would be a solid #3 starter for the Sox in 2008 and thats assuming that Beckett and Matsuzaka both have good years this year. As for his fitness, Schilling always works on his fitness thats why he was able to come back in 2005 instead of 2006 after the bloody sock.
CHB actually asked Schill about this very thing: from this morning’s Globe article…”Absolutely. I think I’ve earned a certain level of respect, based on my accomplishments and my consistency. I believe that I’ll be worth every penny they pay me within the scope of the game. It is harder to stay in shape, no question. It takes more work.”
If anything, he seems determined.
Schilling is politicing again? Strange.
Shut up and pitch, Curt. If you’re worth it you’ll prove it this year. No contracts before the season.