Making the Transition: Japanese Pitchers
I think there was a football game last night.
Some of the better comments during my Super Bowl viewing experience:
“Peyton’s officially been verified, eh?”
“Dammit. Yes. Dammit.”
“If my name was Tank I’d have it on my jersey too.”
“I’d be terrified lining up against Tank Johnson when he’s about to lose the Super Bowl.”
“Bill Simmons must be pissed. He’s soaking wet, the Colts are about to win the Super Bowl, and his wife just won bragging rights through the summer.”
“Its gotta be bad luck to put your full name on your jersey. Tank Johnson…Darrent- uh…nevermind. Too soon.”
“Wait, is Tony Dungy black?”
At least now the world can concentrate on baseball again. We’ll be hearing those magic words more and more in the next few weeks: “Pitchers and Catchers.”
As a whole, the success of Japanese pitchers has been fleeting. Those who have made the move fit into two categories: instant success followed by dramatic flame-out (Ishii, Nomo) or disaster from the start (Irabu).
It pains me to say it, but Big Stein was dead-on. He hit a bullseye with two-thirds of his legendary “fat p*ssy toad” barb. Hideki Irabu was indeed fat and pitched as though lily pads and frog-ettes were his only care in the world. The reptilian reference was a little off-color, but what would you expect from the Root of All Evil? How much would I pay to see a no-holds-barred-steel-cage-grudge-match between Georgie-porgie and Irabu-san? If Hideki yells “TONIGHT, we dine IN HELL!!!” I’d probably smash a testicle with a hammer to be there. Sorry Lefty.
Irabu had a few good seasons in Japan, but was essentially a fastball/splitter guy with problems controlling his fastball, splitter and weight. After whining his way onto the Yankees and a short stint in the minors he came up in 1997 to make nine starts with a 7.09 ERA. You know the story: he flamed out after 99 and saved 16 for the Rangers in 2002. Really? He saved 16 games?
Hideo Nomo had everybody fooled. Batters had no idea what was coming; when he was on he was unhittable. He inexplicably cut his walks from over 5 per 9 IP to 3.67 during the transition from Japan. Why? Nobody could figure out where the ball was coming from or where it ended up.
| Hideo Nomo | IP | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | |
| 1995 | LAD | 191.1 | 2.54 | 11.10 | 3.03 |
Yowza.
I’d bet the farm that Daisuke Matsuzaka ends up somewhere between The Toad and No-No Nomo in year one, and probably closer to the middle. I don’t care about gyro-balls; if he’s got Saturn-nuts I’d be satisfied. Above all, he’s going to need to stay cool in the clutch to win me over. Hey, it wouldn’t hurt if you put your dead-animal-sleeping-bag/coat back in the closet too, sweetheart. Could you imagine Mike Timlin greeting him in the clubhouse? Color me chartreuse with excitement over Dice’s fashion choices.
His velocity is hovering around “pretty good” which also gives me reason to pause. Other guys have succeeded with less, but how will we define success for him? Would you be happy with 13 wins and a 4.30 ERA? How about 140 Ks? I’ll say those are the lower limits on quality seasons by any pitcher, certainly not those in Dice’s tax bracket. The transition will be difficult in complex ways; it makes me wonder if he’s going to need some time in extended spring training or a short stint in AAA, Irabu-stylee. I’d hate to make his debut any more dramatic than it already will be, but rushing him could have disastrous effects. Wait. $100 million. Throw him in the fire, head first; give him Opening Day.
The pressure is certainly on; he needs to have a season comparable to Hideo Nomo’s ROY campaign to impress the “experts” of Red Sox Nation.
| Hideo Nomo | IP | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | |
| 1995 | LAD | 191.1 | 2.54 | 11.10 | 3.03 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | IP | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | |
| 2005 | Seibu | 215 | 2.30 | 9.46 | 4.61 |
(2005 was Dice’s best season, but 03 and 06 were close)
Much like our roommates, our expectations might be a little high. Replicating his best pro season after turning his life on its head is an order taller than the Tokyo Tower (tallest building in Tokyo: 333m, thanks Wikipedia). Let’s not forget: batters have to adjust to a pitcher’s style, delivery, stuff, and approach. Dice may not have Nomo’s Asian Tornado of Deception (AToD), but if he has superior command, numbers in this neighborhood are attainable.
While Nomo’s advantage (the Nomo Effect) slowly disappeared, Dice must change his game continuously to separate himself from the pack. Prolonged success is the holy grail of a Japanese pitcher making the transition; can Dice adjust once hitters figure him out?
Hey hippie, you’re gonna have to cut that hair.
Kei Igawa is a finesse lefty with a decent slider. He’ll be solid this year and fade into the sunset much like Ishii.
The Relievers
Kaz Sasaki
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Takashi Saito
Akinori Otsuka
Why weren’t these guys starters in Japan? Because they weren’t good enough. I can’t bold that statement enough. A reliever worth his salt gets by on three things: one above average pitch, a set of cajones, and the faults of the human memory. On the other hand, starters need two or more above average pitches or an unbeatable Moyer/Maddux-esque game strategy. The career progression of the relievers listed above is essentially the Nomo Effect in slow motion (save maybe Sasaki). Batters can and will figure them out. The psyche (or psychosis) of a reliever is their main ally and it’s a crazy streak that separates the good from the great. I couldn’t begin to formulate the proper recipe for a closer, maybe next time.
The Sox have Matsuzaka signed for six years. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he dominates in 2007, but slowly falls prey to the Nomo Effect in 2009 and beyond. The value of this signing will be determined in the final three years of the contract. Don’t get me wrong, we’ll all be excited if he busts out of the gate with a few quick wins and double-digit strikeout games; but if he’s truly the different pitcher that the team’s commitment suggests, it might be a good sign if he stumbles a bit. This is a cautionary tale, don’t judge Dice based on immediate impact, positive or negative.
That said, what do you expect from him this year?
Well done.
I liked the “300″ reference. Not sure if I should admit this, but I did not watch one second of the superbowl. “Rome” was great, though.
Well, I actually got to see him pitch in the high school championship and his first year in the pros once (lived in Japan for five years).
I actually expect good things from him, though I don’t know if he’s going to be a number 1. Hopefully a number 2 for the first 3-4 years of the contract years. He can handle pressure, that’s for sure. But Boston pressure is a different beast, and my only worry is the vast difference between Boston and Japan. I mean that coat wouldn’t even be noticed in Japan – it’s quite common.
Athletically he should be fine. And if he can acculturate to Boston, he can handle the pressure game time.