2006 Record: 93-69, 1 place AL West 

Projected Lineup:
C Jason Kendall
RF Milton Bradley
LF Nick Swisher
3B Eric Chavez
DH Mike Piazza
1B Dan Johnson
SS Bobby Crosby
CF Mark Kotsay
2B Mark Ellis

Projected Rotation:
Dan Haren
Rich Harden
Joe Blanton
Esteban Loaiza
Joe Kennedy

Closer:
Huston Street

The 2006 version of the Oakland Athletics did what one would expect from a modern A’s team: started off slow, caught fire in the second half, exceeded expectations, won the AL West, and lost in the playoffs.  Despite having an offense that was barely mediocre (9^th out of 14 in runs scored), the A’s won 93 games, fueled by strong pitching and defense. 

Their pitching staff was anchored by the ever-durable (and now very wealthy) Barry Zito, and their offense was led by a surprise monster season from veteran bopper Frank Thomas.  The bad news for the 2007 A’s: both of these players are gone via free-agency.  Barry Zito left for greener pastures, signing the largest pitching contract in baseball history with the cross-town Giants (the dirty hippie just couldn’t leave the Bay Area, could he?), and Frank Thomas left for colder pastures, joining the Toronto offensive juggernaut.

The good news for the A’s: just about every other significant player from the 2006 squad will be returning this year, several of whom had injury shortened or disappointing seasons in 2006, and can be expected to improve.  On the other hand, the A’s are again counting on a couple of players who simply aren’t very good.    

The biggest hole on the 2006 Athletics roster is the void created by my fellow paisan, pitcher Barry Zito.  In his 6 full seasons with Oakland, Zito had averaged 35 starts (!), 223 innings, and a 3.61 ERA; somewhat phenomenal considering the era.  The A’s hope to fill his absence with a guy who wasn’t around too often in 2006: Rich Harden.  Harden’s young career has been highlighted by high expectations, flashes of brilliance, and a boatload of injuries.  He’s sort of the pitching version of JD Drew, without the bad press.  According to manager Bob Geren, Harden will be ready to begin Spring Training in February.  If completely healthy, the 25 year old, carrying a career ERA+ of 123, would fill in adequately for Zito.  However, expecting Harden to make 30+ starts in 2007 is akin to expecting Britney Spears to put on some underwear before leaving the trailer. Probably won’t happen.    

Oakland has another stud in their rotation, and he’s no longer a secret:  Danny Haren, who returns for his 3^rd year with the A’s.  Like Zito, Dan has proven to be remarkably durable, and unlike Zito, Haren has great control and command of three quality pitches.  As the 26 year old right-hander enters his prime, Haren may emerge as the anchor of the rotation with a breakout All-Star caliber season.  If he can keep his HR totals to a reasonable number, expect Haren to enter the Cy Young discussion in 2007.

One of Oakland’s two major disappointments last season was pitcher Joe Blanton.  Blanton, a product of the “Moneyball” draft (i.e. he’s chunky but has good plate discipline), followed up a tremendous rookie year in 2005 with an off-year in 2006, in which his WHIP increased from 1.22 to 1.54.  The good news is Blanton managed to stay relatively healthy and win 16 games, but the bad news is his K rate was a paltry 4.96.  Judging by the BABIP for 2005 and 2006 (.241 and .320 respectively), there is some serious evidence that his 2005 success was a tad fluky.  Blanton does have good stuff, a fastball in the low 90’s and a plus 12-6 curve, but he will have to keep the ball out of the zone a bit more and start missing more bats to thrive as a solid MLB starter.

Bringing up the rear of the rotation, we have Esteban Loaiza and Joe Kennedy.  Loaiza, as he always is, will be a wildcard in 2007.  In the past 5 years, his yearly performances have been terrible, outstanding, poor, pretty good, and mediocre, respectively.  Interestingly, his K rate seems to fluctuate accordingly: (5.18, 8.23, 5.75, 7.18, 5.64).  While it would be silly to expect a repeat of the 2003 season in which he finished 2^nd in AL Cy Young voting, it would not be hard to imagine the 35 year old veteran pitching close to 200 above-average innings.  He sports a decent cut-fastball as well as 3 other pitches, and manages to throw strikes without yielding many HRs. 

Joe Kennedy, when he wasn’t busy vacationing at the family complex in Hyannis, pitched well for the A’s out of the bullpen in limited action in 2006.  Kennedy was recently signed to a 1 year deal worth $2.8 million, and is the favorite to win the final rotation job as of this writing.  Kennedy’s left-handedness is a point in his favor, as Zito’s departure leaves the rotation without another lefty.  His primary competition, Kirk Saarloos, held down the fort as a spot starter in 2006, but the general consensus is that Kennedy has the better stuff and potential.

The biggest strength of the 2006 A’s looks to remain strong in ’07, a bullpen anchored by 9^th inning phenom Huston Street.  The 23 year old boasts a 180 ERA+ in his 149 MLB innings.  Street struggled a bit against lefties in 2006 (.761 OPS against, compared .512 versus righties), but he is still learning to handle the strike zone when facing the left-handed boppers of the AL.   Despite ending the season on an embarrassingly sour note: yielding a historic season ending HR to Magglio Ordonez to end the 2006 ALCS, look for the closer to come back with numbers somewhere in-between his rookie and sophomore campaigns.   

The Oakland bullpen is equipped with more arms than a Hindu god.  In addition to their closer, the A’s have a trio of right handed relievers who managed an ERA+ over 130 last season: Justin Duchscherer (152), Chad Gaudin (143), and Kiko Calero (130).  Duchscherer, 29, was drafted originally by the Red Sox in 1996, but was dealt for Doug Mirabelli (Part I).  In his career with the A’s, he has emerged as one of the best middle relievers in the AL over the past 3 years.  In fact, if I really felt like playing the role of the pathetically miserable Red Sox fan, I could argue that the best middle relievers in each league were both traded by the Sox for Doug Mirabelli, on two separate occurrences.  Well, we did get some value from Mirabelli in his first tenure, but I digress.  Point is, Duchscherer can throw.

On the surface, 23 year old Chad Gaudin’s 2006 numbers look impressive: 55 games, 64 innings pitched, a 3.09 ERA. However, there is one major red flag here: 36/42 K/BB.  That’s not a typo, he walked more people than he struck out.  The control issues are uncharacteristic; he never displayed any serious issues in his brief major league career, or in the minors.  Look for him to come down to earth a bit in 2007, but nothing too drastic; the crazy peripherals appear to be an outlier.

Kiko Calero, one of the treasures acquired when the A’s sacked Busch Stadium, barbarically raping and pillaging the St. Louis front office in December of 2004, is perhaps the foremost swing-and-miss reliever on the roster.  With a career K/9 of 10.1, and an arsenal featuring a hard cutter, hard curve, and deceiving changeup, Calero forms an ominous bridge to Huston Street in the 9^th inning.

The lefty situation in Oakland is an interesting one.  Assuming Joe Kennedy makes the rotation, 26 year old Brad Halsey will be the lone returning lefty in the bullpen.  However, the A’s also signed 37 year old veteran reliever Alan Embree to a minor league contract.  Assuming the A’s go with 11 pitchers, one of these two will be the odd man out.  Embree’s performance is generally tough to predict, as he is rather old, and not the most consistent fellow, but he was very effective for San Diego in 2006. Brad Hasley was barely average in the pen and as a spot starter in 2006, and should not be considered an effective lefty-specialist candidate.  He actually had a bit of a reverse split last season (.924 OPS vs LH, .750 vs RH), and his 3 year splits against lefties are nearly as ugly as those against the right-handers.  One more variable to add: a dark horse.  Jay Marshall was selected by the A’s in the Rule 5 draft, from the White Sox.  Marshall is a bit of a long shot, considering he’s never pitched above high-A ball, but he is a left-handed reliever.  His numbers last year in high-A Winston-Salem are all fairly impressive, but one stat in particular stands out: Marshall held left-handers to a .096 batting average in 2006.  The 23 year old will get a look this spring, in the event that both Embree and Halsey are unimpressive. 

In his first and only season with the Oakland Athletics, Frank Thomas mashed to the tune of .270/.381/.545 with 39 HRs, sending a giant “F.U.” to his embittered ex-GM Kenny Williams in Chicago.  While the loss of Thomas leaves a giant, gaping, festering wound in the roster, Billy Beane replaces one future Hall of Famer with another Future Hall of Famer: Mike Piazza.  The longtime NL superstar signed a 1 year $8.5 million dollar deal, and is coming off a year in which he posted an .843 OPS while spending 99 of his 126 behind the plate for the Padres.  Piazza, who probably should have been converted to 1B at age 25, will be used strictly as a DH in Oakland.  While he shouldn’t be counted on to produce like the Big Hurt, it is reasonable to expect him to produce at roughly the same level as he did last year, perhaps with a slight improvement on 2006, considering he will no longer be donning the tools of ignorance.

Speaking of the tools of ignorance, Jason Kendall will return as the primary catcher for Oakland.  Kendall is a unique type of catcher, a guy who hits singles and occasionally steals bases, but has virtually no power.  He is a contact hitter with decent plate discipline, and could lead off.  However, his lack of power has become a bit of a crutch, as Kendall has posted 3 straight seasons with an on-base percentage higher than his slugging percentage.  Vying for the backup role is Adam Melhuse, the 35 year old incumbent who led the mutiny against ousted manager Ken Macha last season, and 27 year old Jeremy Brown, who was immortalized in Billy Beane’s epic literary masterpiece (sic).  Jeremy could likely out-hit Melhuse at this point, but Melhuse is much more experienced, and obviously more familiar with the current pitching staff.  Typically, the old salty Crash Davis type tends to win the backup catching job over the young unproven stud, but it will still be an interesting little spring subplot. 

The starting infield from 2006 will return intact, a tandem of 4 players who all had very disappointing seasons last year.  Eric Chavez hit .241, his lowest batting average in the majors, and posted a mediocre 106 OPS+ for the second straight season.  The carnage was the worse at SS, where the oft-injured Bobby Crosby had a disgustingly abysmal season.  Crosby, apparently possessed by The Ghost of Jackie Gutierrez, hit .229/.298/.338 in limited action.  Second baseman Mark Ellis came off a surprisingly productive 2005 campaign only to sputter in 2006 (.249/.319/.385), and Dan Johnson also slipped from a decent rookie year in 2005, posted a sub-par OPS+ of 85.  What can we expect from these guys in 2007?  All are healthy, and all appear to be a safe bet to improve upon their 2006 totals.  Both ZiPS and PECOTA are projecting significant improvements in 2007 for all 4 infielders (both projections systems yield similar results, except in the case of Bobby Crosby: PECOTA is a bit more bullish on the SS). 

Backing up the middle-infielders in 2006 was Marco Scutaro, who provided above average play as a stand-in for both Crosby and Ellis.  It is likely that the A’s begin the year with Scutaro as the only backup option at 2B, SS, and 3B, and use him in the likely event of an injury up the middle.  Piazza or Nick Swisher could be used to occasionally spell Johnson at 1B.  Daric Barton, the organization’s top hitting prospect, will be showcased this spring, but will be best served with a full season in the PCL, and a taste of The Show in September.

While Oakland’s infield suffered a serious power outage in 2006, the outfield did their best to pick up the slack.  Nick Swisher followed up a solid rookie year with a breakout season, slamming 35 HRs with an OBP of .372.  Although Swisher played a bunch of games at 1B in 2006, Billy Beane has gone on record with his plan to use the slugger primarily in left field this season.  Mark Kotsay will once again patrol CF in the shadow of Mount Davis (assuming the Lastings Milledge trade rumors don’t come to fruition.)  Kotsay is normally an average offensive outfielder, but his offense has been gradually declining: OPS+ in 2004-2006: 114, 95, 89.  Kotsay is 32 and has been increasingly brittle in recent years, making CF possibly the most glaring weakness on the team.  If Kotsay can provide replacement-level offense at the bottom of the order and competent defense up the middle, Oakland should be satisfied.  Oakland will be counting on a full healthy year from their volcanic right fielder, Milton Bradley.  When healthy, Milton can provide similar numbers to Nick Swisher: solid power with excellent plate discipline.  If he can avoid the DL and the wrath of the umpires, Milton could be a crucial cog near the top of the A’s lineup. 

The A’s will likely begin the season with 5 outfielders, with Bobby Kielty and yet another Rule 5 selection, this one from Cleveland: Ryan Goleski.  Kielty has proven to be a very useful backup, a replacement-level switch hitter who saw significant time in both corner outfield spots last season.  Goleski split the 2006 in between A and AA in the Indians system, combining for 27 HRs and an OPS around 1.000.  He is 25 years old, so there’s no risk in rushing him.  However, he did have wrist surgery in 2006, and may not be ready for spring training.  A DL stint would allow Oakland to hang onto him without keeping him on the roster (the Adam Stern rule), so don’t expect him back in Cleveland anytime soon. 

Last year, the Oakland A’s were remarkably successful, given the various setbacks to the team in 2006.  Considering this, one might assume that they should be able to waltz to 90+ wins with normal luck in 2007, even after losing Zito and Howard.

Not so fast.  Perhaps the A’s weren’t as unlucky as we would like to think in 2006.  Their Pythagorean record was 85-77, which they outpaced by 8 wins.  Their manager, Ken Macha was dismissed (primarily for personality reasons) after leading an overachieving team to the second round of the playoffs.  He is replaced by Bob Geren, a 45 year-old bench coach with zero MLB managing experience.  Can Geren duplicate Macha’s success with a roster which is, on paper, weaker than that of last season?  The team was hurt by devastating injuries in 2006, but will 2007 be any different? 

This year will be an interesting one for the Athletics.  The Angels and the Rangers both look tougher than they were in 2006.  Oakland has young talent all over the field, but there are health-related question marks, and there are performance-related question marks.  Can Rich Harden actually stay healthy?  Can Peter Gammons’ version of Bobby Crosby come back?  Is Eric Chavez now a JAG (Just Another Guy)?  Like every pre-season, Oakland will have their doubters.

I’m one of them. 

Prediction: 83-79

Top 10 Prospects:
Daric Barton 1B
Travis Buck OF
Jermaine Mitchell OF
Mac Suzuki C
Matt Suletnic OF
Trevor Cahill RHP
Javier Herrera OF
Craig Italiano RHP
Marcus McBeth RHP
Justin Sellers SS