Last year: 85-77, 2nd in NL East

Lineup
SS Jimmy Rollins (S)
CF Aaron Rowand (R)
1B Ryan Howard (L)
LF Pat Burrell (R)
2B Chase Utley (L)
3B Wes Helms (R)
RF Shane Victorino (S)
C Rod Barajas (R)

Rotation
Brett Myers
Freddy Garcia
Jamie Moyer
Cole Hamels
Adam Eaton

Closer
Tom Gordon

Remember the Vet? Yeah, I’m trying to forget it too. I saw Nomar’s 6-6 (all singles) game only to leave with my Rudy Seanez (version 1.0) voodoo doll burned in effigy. In case you forgot (lucky!) Rudy can indeed fail, and did that afternoon, giving up a bomb to Todd Pratt in extras for the L. Beyond the trauma, the only other thing I remember about that game is the idiotic player-themed fan groups: “Thome’s Homies,” “Pat’s Bats,” “The Wolf Pack.” Ok, “The Padilla Flotilla” was kind of clever.

There was one different from all the rest. Far away in the furthest reaches of the 700 level there was one shining beam of truth cast upon the astroturf. I squinted, even got up from my seat so that I could be sure the letters weren’t deceiving me, and there…spray painted on a giant bed sheet…was the most genuine and hilarious of clubs: “GENERIC FAN GROUP.” A few dudes were standing around drinking domestic beer and high-fiving at random.

The Phillies have come a long way since then, in both architecture and player development. The offense scored 865 runs and they matched their Pythagorean projection in 2006. If their improved starting pitching comes as advertised, 2007 might be the year they turn the corner.

“Chase Utley” is a pretty good baseball name. It’s no “Enos Slaughter” or even “Raul Casanova” (cue Stu Scott), but it’s certainly sold a few jerseys. However, if I were a Phillies fan I would be a little worried. If my sanity depended on the success of a second baseman signed into his year 35 season I might be concerned. Oh wait, that already happened. The old “hey, its not my money” excuse is bunk. You’re right; it ISN’T your money, but its money that’s not going to be spent elsewhere. Does anyone think that because they locked Utley up until 2057 they’re going to increase total payroll? Will he turn into Rogers Hornsby? Maybe. Will he turn into Carlos Febles? It’s possible. Chase is 28, we all know what happens to players in their thirties. Why a seven year deal? A contract that long would make sense if he’s going to be commanding more than $12 million a year when he’s 35. He’s a helluva player now, but what’s the last seven year contract that wasn’t a mistake? Oh right, they’ve all been mistakes.

My friend Spastic Ric had a significant amount of coin riding on Ryan Howard and the under on 50 dingers in 2006. It looked like a lock at the beginning of the season and he was trumpeting it to the hills throughout the first half. After the All-Star break he slowly quieted down, eventually descending into the depths of depression and by August was routinely observed stomping around Bethlehem, Pennsylvania in the wee hours of the night cursing every man in the Charles Thomas Hall of Fame. Rumor has it he took out his anger on Donovan McNabb’s knee, Kerrigan-style (Nancy, not Joe). Double or nothin’ Ric?

Gillick hasn’t shown Howard the money yet, so he’s still got that fire. In a perfect world, an unnamed Giants jackass player collides with Howard as he’s rounding first base after unnamed jackass player knocks his 713th homer. Unnamed jackass player suffers debilitating and career ending ego injury; Howard goes on to whack 74 dingers in 2007. (Audible sigh)

Jimmy “Do it for the Hoes!” Rollins is also doin’ it for the dolla-dolla-bills ya’ll. He’s wondering why he didn’t get a piece of that Utley pie. Last year he signed a 4/40 contract but if Julio Lugo gets 4/36, Jimmy could have had 4/50 in the new market. You lookin’ for representation Jimmy? Charlie Manuel will bat him leadoff, and Rollins will hack at first pitches on a regular basis. Watching a leadoff hitter with a penchant for swinging at bad pitches (early and often) is a cruel form of torture. On the bright side, Rollins cracked the Top 100 (#99) in P/PA at 3.70. Congrats James.

The outfield is going to be a weakness. Aaron Rowand is still living off his .905 OPS in 2004, but his sixth-sense fielding in center will pay his checks for a few more years. If you’ve never seen him play in person you’re missing out. The next era of media had better include interactive television so I can make the center field camera zoom out to get him in the frame; it seems as though he starts moving before the ball is hit. His injury last year was nothing but a fluke and a return to 2005 form is expected. In right, Shane Victorino is cheap, 27, and last year was his first full season, so an improvement is probable. He had only 33 extra base hits, and in that ballpark a .414 slugging is amateur. An outfield upgrade might need to be addressed mid-season, depending on the fate of their much-maligned left-fielder.

Reason #324 why no-trade clauses are a bad idea: Pat Burrell. If Gillick is able to dump Burrell and his contract ($13m for 2007, $14m for 2008) for any discount he’ll jump at the chance. I mean, for that kind of money he could get a Gil Meche!

The lineup after Rollins gets a little messy. The two-hole could be Rowand or Victorino, neither of which is suited for such an important role. Utley makes sense here, but Howard must bat third and they could be neutralized by a LOOGY late in games. Their most pressing offensive need is a good right-handed corner guy for that two-hole.

Wes Helms is going to get the chance he deserves this year, and could be the right handed hitter Charlie Manuel needs. After Abraham Nunez’s miserable ‘06 campaign Helms will get the majority (if not all) of the at-bats at third. Helm’s OPS (.965) was 4th in baseball last year among third basemen with 200 ABs; ahead of a couple of bums named Alex Rodriguez and David Wright. He’s 30, and has only had one season of 300+
at-bats. Expect big things from him in 2007.

From the cozy humidity of Arlington comes Rod Barajas. The dimensions of Citizens Bank Park shouldn’t worry him much.

Whoever designed that park in Philadelphia was an idiot.
-Peter Gammons

When I own a baseball team, I’m going to put the fences 500 feet away so I can sign all the best pitchers as a discount. Who cares if I’m turning my lineup into 9 Sal Fasanos (sorry Sal’s Pals, salt in the wound)? Everybody plays in the same stadium.

I digress, Gillick’s hands were tied, Barajas was bad last year but the other FA options (Mirabelli, Javy Lopez, Sandy Alomar, Jr.) are filling out their AARP cards. Chris Coste will back-up. Ok former Sal’s Pals, vote on the following: “The Barajas Bananas,” “The Barajas Piranhas” or “Rod’s Wranglers” (if anybody picks Rod’s Wranglers I’m hangin’ it up).

The list of starters should really include Jon Lieber, because he’s still under contract. I foresee an end of spring training dump in typical Gillick panic mode. The little bird is whispering in his ear, “I know you’re getting ants in your pants, but hang onto Jon a little longer that you should, Pat, at least for Eaton insurance.” A lot of teams will be looking for a veteran starter in June, dumping him for bullpen help in April would be a mistake. He won’t turn into Wily Mo Pena, but last year the Sox prematurely shot their wad on Bronson Arroyo, and then they had a mess on their hands (R.I.P. Tobias Funke).

Brett Myers needs to step up and grow up. He’s made at least 31 starts a year since 2003, and averaged around one home run allowed per start. He’s going to have to cut down the dingers if he’s going to break through into the upper echelon of starting pitchers. The 2007 Phillies success will be directly proportional to Myers’. Adam Eaton is a big question mark but was 9-1 with a 3.18 ERA on the Padres in 2005 before he got hurt. Gavin Floyd needed to move on and he brought in Freddy “More Durable than Barbaro” Garcia; few pitchers have been more more consistent than Garcia since 1999 and a move to the National League should boost him slightly. Jamie Moyer is closer than anyone to hitting his age on the radar gun; he’ll be 45 by the end of the year. His preparation and strategy are better than anyone in the game (yes, even Maddux) and he’ll get guys out with the kitchen sink well into his sixties. Entering his third decade in baseball, there’s little reason to believe he’ll be any worse than the first two. Twelve wins and an ERA around 4.50 will be a very nice contribution. Cole Hamels pitched much better after the break last year, increasing his K/BB from 1.83 to 4.21. The skinny lefty looks a little like Casey Fossum, except with an entourage of chicks and enough talent to fill an oil tanker. Every team needs a solid lefty in the rotation; the Phils have two.

The rotation will be better than last year. After the deadline they were Myers, Moyer, Lieber, Hamels and Eude Brito. They’ve added Eaton and Garcia and will have full seasons from lefties Hamels and Moyer with Brito as the long man.

Flash is 39 but he’s only been a full-time reliever since he was 31. Eckersley made the transition at the same age and was an effective (if not dominant) closer until he was 42. With Gordon’s injury history and high stress motion, comparable durability is unlikely. His peripherals have been all over the map but were solid last year. He might have one more season in that 5’9” frame.

The six-fingered man joins Gordon in the bullpen. No, Antonio Alfonseca didn’t kill Inigo Montoya’s father, and he isn’t “prepared to die.” Although he might be prepared to choke in a big game and throw a few to the backstop, as he’s been known to do. He’ll join Ryan Madson and Geoff Geary in the seventh and eighth. Arthur Rhodes has moved on to the Mariners; leaving Fabio Castro (31.2 career IP) and Matt Smith (20.2) as their only available lefties in the pen. I was shocked to learn that Rule 5-er Jim Ed Warden hails from Tennessee; if Tank Johnson can have his first name on his jersey, then Jim Ed should be able to as well. PhuturePhillies makes a good case for his use as a situational righty, but he sounds like a shot in the dark to me. When I hear “situational righty,” I think “waste of roster spot” so look for his return to whence he came.

The Phillies have improved markedly from last season’s solid campaign. The additions of Garcia, Eaton and Moyer will equal 4-6 more wins. If Myers finally puts it all together and Hamels continues on his second half pace the Phils will win the division.

Projection: 93-67

JRoll agrees with me.