Colorado Rockies 2007 Preview
2006 Record: 76-86, 4th place NL West
Projected Lineup:
CF Willy Taveras
RF Brad Hawpe
1B Todd Helton
3B Garrett Atkins
LF Matt Holliday
C Chris Iannetta
SS Troy Tulowitzki
2B Kaz Matsui
Projected Rotation:
Jeff Francis
Aaron Cook
Rodrigo Lopez
Josh Fogg
Jason Hirsh
Closer:
Brian Fuentes
Outlook:
The cool mountain air of the Rockies spawned many surprises last year. No, I’m not talking about the CEO of Coors being arrested for DUI. I’m talking about a team that finished, amazingly, with 1 more run scored than run yielded. As they usually are, Colorado’s lineup consisted of a few power hitters, a few bad contracts, and some decent pitchers (these pitchers must be kept in cages, heavily sedated, or else they will run away).
Franchise pitcher Jason Jennings led a gritty staff in 2006, throwing 212 innings and posting a 3.78 ERA. I don’t have to tell you that this type of performance is no small feat in Denver. Behind him, Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook also provided steady performances on the mound, keeping the Rockies in ballgames. However, the biggest surprises came from the hitters. Even in their infamous hitters’ environment, the likes of Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, and Jamey Carroll all broke out in a major way. This couldn’t have come at a more needed time, since franchise hitter Todd Helton had a relatively down year, due in part to a nagging stomach illness.
In the off-season, the Rockies made quite a few moves, both via trade and free-agency. The biggest move was the trading of their #1 starter, Jason Jennings, to the Houston Astros. In return for Jennings, they receive speedy outfielder Willy Tavares, a decent pitching prospect in Jason Hirsh, and inning-eater Taylor Buchholz. While this move may not help the rotation much in 2007, Hirsh will likely prove to be a useful starter in a couple of years. Colorado also singed free agents LaTroy Hawkins (RP), Brian Lawrence (SP), Rodrigo Lopez (SP), and Javy Lopez (C). I have to give GM Dan O’Dowd credit here; he certainly kept himself busy this winter. A few of these guys might not contribute much (I honestly can’t see Javy Lopez doing anything useful anymore, after watching him drag his bloated, decomposing carcass around Fenway for a month), but the moves are low cost and low risk, with a potential upside.
2007 looks to be another difficult year for Colorado starting pitchers. The Jennings trade leaves a quasi-hole in the rotation, since Jason Hirsh may not be ready to pitch effectively. He was lit up in his big-league debut in Houston, and might need some more AAA time before he is ready to grip the humidor-enhanced baseballs at Coors. (Side note: How is the whole “humidor” thing even legal? I think Fenway Park should store their baseballs in an oil drum. Or, maybe the pitchers should light the baseballs on fire before each pitch. It wouldn’t hurt to explore the rules a bit, would it?)
In Jennings’ absence, Jeff Francis takes over as the Rockies’ #1 starter. Francis improved greatly in 2006, and began to show why he was one of the most ballyhooed pitching prospects in baseball before getting the call. In 199 innings, Francis posted an impressive 1.286 WHIP, while only yielding 18 homers on the year. Behind him, Aaron Cook returns from a year in which he started 32 games, pitched 213 innings, and posted a respectable ERA of 4.23 (114 ERA+). Cook is a nice story, recovering from blood clots in 2004 to have a healthy and successful season in 2006. He relies on a heavy sinker, and has had success in the Coors environment, yielding lots of hits, but not a lot of homers.
After Francis and Cook, the outlook begins to get murky. Newly acquired Rodrigo “The Red Sox Killer” Lopez will probably slide into the 3rd spot in the rotation. Lopez was rather atrocious in the American League in 2006, causing more pain and suffering in Baltimore than those crack-dealers from “The Wire”. Lopez had the worst season of his career, losing 18 games and posting a 5.90 ERA. Now, a large reason for his failures was the gopher-ball: 32 HRs allowed, and this is a bit of a red flag, considering his new home. His K/9 and K/BB peripherals are all solid, but Rodrigo will need to keep the ball a bit lower in the zone to avoid getting pounded in Colorado. He will have the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor, so expect a season at least slightly better than the egg he laid in Camden Yards last year.
The final two spots in the rotation will be decided in spring training, and right now my Magic 8-Ball is trying the best it can to decipher this mess. My money is on veteran innings-eater Josh Fogg filling the 4th spot in the rotation. If you were to look up “mediocrity” in the dictionary, a photo of Fogg’s mug would be staring at you. If anything, the right-hander is consistent: his last 5 ERA+ are 88, 85, 89, and 81. The standard deviation on his ERAs is lower than the number of laptops I own. One thing working in Fogg’s favor: he doesn’t yield very many homers in Colorado. In fact, his HR/9 actually decreased from his days at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Best case scenario: Fogg can keep them in enough games, and let the dangerous lineup out-slug the other team.
Now, for the final rotation spot, I have highly-touted prospect Jason Hirsh penciled in. As I mentioned above, his pitches were not treated very kindly by opposing bats in 2006, but as a general rule, I don’t put much stock in the results of September cups-of-coffee. Too much variability and pressure involved. Beginning a fresh slate in Denver, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hirsh pitch similarly to the way Jeff Francis pitched in his rookie season (getting occasionally smacked around, but likely ending the year with numbers just as good as Fogg). There are 4 more viable candidates for the 5th slot, two of whom I would consider likely contenders, and the other two I would consider long shots. Taylor Buchholz was another piece acquired from Houston is the Jennings deal. Buchholz saw some time in the Houston rotation last season, and actually showed flashes of brilliance (including a complete game shutout), as well as flashes of incompetence (yielded 1.67 homers per 9 innings). Old friend Byung-Hyun Kim started 27 games in the Rockies rotation in 2006, and enjoyed his usual high K rates and occasional control spasms. While I personally would have Kim in the rotation over either Lopez, Fogg, or Hirsh, the grumblings out of Denver are that management likes him in the bullpen. Ubaldo Jimenez and Brian Lawrence round out the long-shot candidates for the final starting spot. Jimenez is a promising hard-throwing right-handed rookie, and Lawrence is a veteran who was out last season, recovering from surgery. Both will need to impress this spring, in tandem with a miserable spring from the likes of Kim, Buchholz, and Hirsh.
There will be one new face in the Colorado bullpen to compliment the rock-steady lefty closer, Brian Fuentes (who has made the last 2 All-Star teams). Free agent LaTroy Hawkins will join his fellow former-Oriole Rodrigo Lopez, and will likely serve as the set-up man in a serviceable bullpen. 25-year-old Ramon Ramirez returns after an outstanding rookie season in which he posted an ERA+ of 139 to go along with an impressive 8.10 K/9. Former Royal Jeremy Affeldt will likely see most off the LOOGY situations in the bullpen. The lefty was spanked with authority last season (6.91 ERA), but did hold lefties to a .212 batting average. Another rookie, 24-year-old Manny Corpas, will likely join the big-league bullpen to begin the season. Corpas was impressive in a brief trial in 2006, and provides more youth to a group of promising arms who have shown the ability to weather the high altitude. Veteran lefty Tom Martin provided yeoman’s work in the Colorado bullpen last season, and will return as a reliable mop-up guy and token lefty, and insurance just in case Affeldt is ineffective. One of Kim or Buchholz (whichever guy does not join the rotation) will serve as a spot starter or 12th pitcher.
Before I move onto the infield, let me just say this: about 20 minutes ago, someone pulled the fire alarm in my building. I performed my due diligence, making sure there was no actual fire (I opened my door and sniffed). So for the past 20 minutes, I‘ve been typing this review with toilet paper jammed in my ears, and hatred in my heart. Kids, don’t pull fire alarms, because I just might come looking for you some day.
On to the infield…
Todd Helton, the heart of this fledgling franchise, will return to his familiar post at first base (so we think). I’m sure you’ve heard the countless trade rumors surrounding Helton, most of which had him going to the Red Sox in exchange for pitching. You can see my analysis of a hypothetical deal here. It is conceivable that a deal could still happen, but the talks have certainly cooled down of late, and the season is rapidly approaching, so we’ll assume Helton remains in Denver. In 2006, Helton saw a noticeable drop-off in production, as his OPS shrank from .979 to .880. Some of this could be attributed to the nagging stomach illness, but given his age (33), a drop-off in production should not be a surprise. It would be unfair to expect Helton to put up the astronomical offensive digits that Mile-High fans had enjoyed for the better part of the 21st century. If Helton remains healthy, he’ll likely continue to hit well, but not like he did in 2003.
Kaz Matsui will begin the season as the regular second baseman. “Mothra” played excellently after his mid-season acquisition from the Mets, hitting .345/.392/.504 in 123 plate appearances, and creating about 8 runs per 27 outs. While his defense is not spectacular, Matsui fielded the position extremely well in his short trial with the Rockies. His presence at second base will prevent Colorado from trying to rely on another fluke season from Jamey Carroll, the 33 year old who broke out last season. Carroll will most likely become a utility man, and one of the first bats off the bench.
The left side of the infield in Colorado is among the most promising in the league. At SS, Troy Tulowitzki looks to inherit the starting job, after taking over for the deposed Clint Barmes in late 2006. The young infielder is among a handful of prospective NL Rookie of the Year candidates, and PECOTA predicts him raking to the tune of .291/.349/.461 in 2007. If “Tulo” comes even close to approaching those numbers, he would be a gigantic improvement over Barmes’ anemic performance of 2006. I shall be rooting heavily for Tulowitzki, simply because he has a great baseball name, and it would make my All-Polish team just about complete.
To the hot corner returns one of the biggest breakout stories of 2006: Garrett Atkins. Atkins’ diet consisted mostly of hapless opposing pitchers, as he tore through the NL with an OPS+ of 138 and a VORP of 62.7. The 27-year-old returns healthy and hungry, and should be expected to once again serve as the cornerstone of the Colorado lineup, most likely hitting third. Garrett isn’t exactly Brooks Robinson with the leather; he’ll likely end up at first base eventually, perhaps as soon as this season if Helton is dealt. However, his gaudy offensive production will certainly mitigate his defensive shortcomings.
The catching situation is similar to the SS situation in Colorado: the team has the option of going with a weak-hitting guy with a decent glove and experience, or a highly touted rookie with a solid bat, a suspect glove, and not much experience. In this chapter, Yorvit Torreabla plays the role of the weak-hitting incumbent starter, and Chris Iannetta stars in the role of the hot-hitting rookie. Given Torreabla’s horrendous plate discipline (49/11 K/BB ratio, .293 OBP), the smart money is on manager Clint Hurdle giving Iannetta the nod, barring a horrid spring training. While Iannetta isn’t as savvy behind the plate as Torreabla, he should hit exceptionally well in the mountain air, perhaps around .300/.375/.475. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both Iannetta and Tulowitzki is Rookie of the Year conversations come September. Javy Lopez will likely serve as a backup 1B, third catcher, and DH in AL parks, assuming he shows that he can still play this spring.
The Colorado outfield will return two breakout stars from 2006, as well as a new addition up the middle. Willy Taveras, 25, is the most exciting off-season addition to this team. Acquired in the Jason Jennings deal, Taveras brings excellent defense and speed to a team that is devoid of both. Taveras shined in the tricky Minute Maid Park centerfield last season, adding 17 fielding runs above average (FRAR), and was also a terror on the basepaths, stealing 33 bases in 42 attempts (79 %). The knock on Taveras is his lack of power and plate discipline. Even considering his new atmosphere, Rockies fans would be wise to not expect much from an offensive standpoint, except for some electric running down the first base line, resulting in more than a few infield hits and bunt singles. Despite his OBP deficiencies (career .329 OPB), Tavares is as good of a choice as any to lead off in this lineup of heavy hitters.
At left field stands perhaps the Rockies best offensive player, and perhaps most unlikely hero in 2006, Matt Holliday. At 6’4” and 235 pounds, Holliday saw his HR total jump from 19 in 2005 to 34 in 2006, as he led the team in homers, slugging percentage, and stolen bases. Like several other players in this lineup, Holliday will come into 2007 at that magic age, 27. If Todd Helton can manage to improve only a little from his “off” season, Holliday will have even more protection that he did last season, and will likely have another All-Star caliber season. Along with his dangerous bat, Holliday actually improved defensively in 2006, and with the help of Taveras, should be able to cover plenty of ground in the vast Colorado outfield.
The other corner outfield spot will be occupied by the electrifying Brad Hawpe. Brad is essentially Trot Nixon West, a gritty fan favorite who crushes right-handed pitching, but looks like me versus left-handed pitching. A guy with good pop, sound plate discipline, a strong throwing arm, but not too much range. Hawpe will likely (“should” will probably be more appropriate) hit near the top of the order versus right-handed pitching, and will likely see some days off against tough lefties. In his stead, Jeff Baker will likely get a few at-bats. The 26 year old will see time in the corner outfield positions, as well as 3rd base. In a small sample (101 PAs), the righty has mashed to the tune of .305/.347/.653. While that gaudy slugging percentage will not be sustainable, he does have a career slugging percentage of .511, and thus can be counted on for some power off the bench. Rounding out the reserves is Cory Sullivan. A centerfielder, Cory Sullivan, is another lefty hitter, but he has a less severe L/R split than Hawpe. Sullivan can run, and will be used to spell Taveras, Holliday, and Hawpe on occasion, especially in the late innings.
It would seem that the fans of the Purple have hope on the horizon. On paper, the team certainly has the young talent, and manager Clint Hurdle will be on the hot-seat this year. Aside from arguably the Dodgers, there isn’t a clear cut favorite in the NL West. The Colorado lineup does not have one easy out, their bullpen is stocked with live arms and competent role-players, and their bench is strong. As usual, the one challenge facing the team is their starting pitching. Cook and Francis should be able to win a few games, but the rest of the rotation can not be counted on for much more than league-average pitching. There will be quite a few slugfests in the mountains this season.
A few more will go their way this time around.
Prediction: 84-78
Top 10 Prospects
Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Chris Iannetta, C
Ian Stewart, 3B
Dexter Fowler, OF
Franklin Morales, LHP
Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
Jeff Baker, OF
Joe Koshansky, 1B
Greg Reynolds, RHP
Manny Corpas, RHP
Interesting preview of the Rox.
For what it’s worth, it looks as though Helton is going to be moved back to the #4 slot in the order with Holliday hitting behind him.
Atkins will stay at #3. It also looks like the plan is to slot Kaz in the #2 hole with Taveras at the top, so ideally it would be:
CF Taveras
2B Matsui
3B Atkins
1B Helton
LF Holliday
RF Hawpe
C Iannetta
SS Tulo
In terms of the rotation, Cook (or even Lopez) is a better bet to be the nominal #1 starter. Jeff is no doubt the future #1 and face of that staff, but I think they’re going to protect him a little until he’s a clear-cut #1 presence in addition to the talent. Hirsh is interesting and could be real good right away at the back end of that rotation. Buchholz will likely be a bullpen arm.
In addition to Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez, another guy to watch this year is Juan Morillo. Everyone in baseball wants to find a Joel Zumaya and he could be ours, since they just moved his 100mph fastball to the bullpen.
Thanks for the feedback.
I did see that Matsui looks to bat 2nd, but I don’t agree with that decision. He strikes out quite a bit, and his career OBP is .318.
Hawpe just seems like a better bet to get on base, or smack a double with Taveras on first.
Either way, their lineup will be strong, assuming Atkins and Holliday weren’t flukes.