2006: 61-101, Last in AL East

2007 Projected Lineup
CF Rocco Baldelli (R)
LF Carl Crawford (L)
1B Ty Wigginton (R)
DH Jonny Gomes (R)/Jorge Cantu (R)
RF Delmon Young (R)
2B Akinori Iwamura (L)
3B B.J. Upton (R)
C Dioner Navarro (S)
SS Ben Zobrist (S)

Rotation
LHP Scott Kazmir
LHP Cassey Fossum
RHP Tim Corcoran
RHP James Shields
RHP Jae Seo

Closer
RHP Seth McClung/RHP Dan Miceli/???

I’m bad luck. Going into August 2006, the Red Sox were hangin’ tough with the Yankees, ready to contend for a playoff spot.

So Dad says, “Hey Zach, let’s go to Tampa and check out the Sox next weekend, I just found some seats behind home plate.” I pondered the idea for a moment, and then he drops the all-important: “My treat.”

“Deal.”

I had a bad feeling from the beginning. First of all, Florida has crocodiles. Second, I knew the Trop was a dump. I don’t make a point of visiting dome stadiums so I don’t have much to compare, but I can say that it’s a barren, sterile pile of sweaty concrete. Its saving grace: Boddington’s at the concession stand. Maybe my Dad and I are spoiled Fenway snobs, but our first impression was “Damn, this place feels like a mall.”

“I’m gonna go get a beer. You want anything at Eddie Bauer?” Dad was pretty proud of himself after that gem. I’m sure you don’t need to be reminded, but after dropping two of three to the Rays, the Sox were swept by the Royals and massacred at the Fens by the Yankees. I take full responsibility for the disaster that was 2006. My presence in Tampa triggered the avalanche. You see, I’ve witnessed an inordinate amount of season ending injuries, blowout losses, rain delays, and other general shittyness. I learned two things on that trip to Tampa 1. Don’t get between a retiree and the Sunday buffet and 2. The Rays have some fire. They showed a lot of resolve, they stuck with it and played hard even though they were out of it when they broke camp.

Tell Nana and Pop-pop on the Gulf Coast that there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. The Rays have a young, cheap core with some major league experience. They have the best group of prospects, ever. The offense should be productive and Scott Kazmir is a stud-in-training. They have some very valuable commodities that could be traded before opening day for a starter. Put this team in the 2006 NL West and they run away with the division.

This is optimism in the most cautious sense. There are also a boatload of problems with they way the roster is constructed. Beyond the obvious infield clusterf*ck and bullpen ineptitude, they don’t have a true leadoff hitter. Nobody in the starting nine had an OBP over .350; those who were close are more valuable driving guys in. Rocco “The Woonsocket Wonder” Baldelli is the choice of conventional baseball stupidity, but he outslugged Gomes and Cantu (AKA “the sluggers”) by a significant margin. Honestly I don’t know how much stock to put into this, but he is far more comfortable batting first (1.005 OPS) than third (.803 OPS) and strangely his power explodes when he gets first crack (.639 vs. .476 SLG). While he seems to favor it, Rocco just isn’t programmed to leadoff. He can certainly hit; if he learns where the strike zone is he’ll be a star. A .533 SLG isn’t ideal for a leadoff guy, but no reason to complain. This is purely masturbatory; if he sticks in Tampa he’ll be hitting first.

I have a hopeless man-crush on Carl Crawford. After leading the league in triples for three years in a row, its safe to say he’s electrifying. His OPS trend since he became an everyday player in 2003 is pretty awesome: .671, .781, .800, .830. Although it’s slightly irrelevant, in 2004 he grounded into two double plays in 626 at bats. Not bad for the second hitter in a lineup. While unfashionable, maybe blazing speed at the top is more valuable than we post-Moneyball nerds sabermetricians believe.

Jonny Gomes looks more like he belongs on a fan boat in the Everglades more than batting third for the Devil Rays. He’s going to have to prove himself again this spring. I wouldn’t guarantee him a starting spot, he should battle Jorge Cantu. Jorge had a breakout in 2005 (.808 OPS) he fell of a cliff last year (.699). His versatility is nice but he won’t get many chances in the field. Barring a slew of injuries or a trade, he’ll be a DH. Ty Wigginton is sure to be in there after his career high 24 home runs and .828 OPS. He’s proven himself in the AL East after three years of obscurity in the NL. That old “change of scenery” line sometimes holds true. Bossman Junior Upton will make throwing errors at a record pace (13 in 139 chances in 2006) until they figure out a way to get him to the outfield. If Rocco gets dealt than Upton moves to left, Crawford to center, Wigginton/Iwamura to third and Cantu to first. A deal with the Phillies for Jon Lieber plus a prospect or two and a pile of cash would be a good fit. Lieber is bad, but a veteran in the rotation could be invaluable.

The right field mess has been cleaned up by Delmon Young. He averaged nearly one extra base hit every 10 at bats after getting the call in late August. As long as he doesn’t pull another Izzy Alcantara he’ll be in right for the duration and a huge improvement over the Damon Hollins/Russell Branyan/Greg Norton monster.

As I wrote in my first post at Dewey’s House, it’s going to take Akinori Iwamura at least a season or two to adjust. His value is largely dependant on where they play him (chill out, nerds). At second a .750 OPS is acceptable, but at third it’s near the bottom of the league. He’s going to need some time and the infield is crowded now, if he doesn’t find it by mid season he’ll find himself on the bench.

Does anyone else feel like recent advertising has stolen all your favorite songs and commercialized them to the point of nausea? Ben Zobrist should agree, during my aforementioned trip to Tampa I discovered Ben and I had favorite tune in common – The Chemical Brothers’ “Galvanize.” Well, for me its more of a guilty pleasure, but Ben was so fond it played before each of his at bats. Since then Budweiser has stolen this song from us, as well as Geico with Royksopp’s “Remind Me” and half a Goldfrapp album (Verizon, Alltel, Motorola, L’Oreal, Diet Coke, ABC, F/X, and Target all use Goldfrapp tunes, thanks http://adtunes.com). Anyway, Zobrist couldn’t sniff a league average OPS+ (46) in 2006, but his 2006 minor league OPS was .984; there’s clearly some potential. Dioner Navarro will get the majority of the time behind the plate and Josh Paul is there to back up.

By the end of the season, we could be adding a name to the short list of major league aces, and its not Victor Zambrano. Is anyone else surprised Jim Duquette hasn’t been drawn and quartered in Flushing? Maybe he’s the part of the General Manager Protection Program. Kazmir was an All-Star last year and managed a mere 144 ERA+. The success is due to his reduced walk totals. After throwing up a BBenjamin in 2005 he cut the free passes to 52 last year and maintained his strikeouts. If he continues on that pace he’ll waltz into the Cy Young.

After Kazmir there’s some talent, but it’s thinner than Cassey Fossum’s waistline. You remember The Blade…he’s still not a reliable starter. Jae Seo threw up a 162 ERA+ in 90 IP in 2005, but was inconsistent last year. James Sheilds had a nice June in 2006 (4-1, 3.60), unfortunately he followed it with July (0-4, 6.49). If I had to bet on any of these bums to impress this year, it would be Tim Corcoran. He carried a very respectable 3.96 ERA into a mid-September contest with the Yankees, but left it bruised and battered after one third of an inning and seven earned. I think Tim would agree, he just didn’t have it that day.

Rumor has it they’re looking at Dustin Hermanson for the bullpen. He’d join some combination of Seth McClung, Dan Miceli, Scott Dohman, Al Reyes and possibly former uber-prospect Edwin Jackson at the end of the pen. J.P. Howell is still left handed, so he’ll be employed. Shinji Mori may never come back from a 2006 torn labrum, but remains property of the Rays - look for him in June. Chad Orvella will be back, as well as “doesn’t rhyme with Buddy,” Ruddy Lugo. Every time I hear “…and Shawn Camp is warming in the pen” I still hope it’s a fat dude in a Sonics Jersey suckin’ on a pint of SoCo. If Gerry Hunsicker finds someone with a name similar to “Detlef Schrempf” a la NBA Jam (Tournament Edition of course) I’d probably giggle myself to death. It’s a good thing that’s unlikely. The pen is a terrible mess and a glaring weakness, I get the feeling Joe Maddon will be picking names out of a hat.

The new owners have been promising change in the W column; unfortunately they’re in the wrong division to get make significant progress there. I guess they bought Lucifer out, because in 2008 they’re planning on dropping the Devil and becoming the Tampa Bay Rays. I understand their hesitance to be associated with the Antichrist, but it doesn’t exactly roll off the tougue. As long as they lose the strange color scheme they’ll be winners in my book.

Looking into the future, in 2008 they only have around $13 million committed, leaving them enough flexibility to add some payroll before the start of that campaign. Much like North Korea, they will focus on arms. Baldelli, Crawford, Iwamura, and Young are signed; while Elijah Dukes, Gomes, Upton and Zobrist will remain at the minimum ($380k). Arbitration costs (Kazmir and Cantu) will be significant and Hunsicker would be wise to lock up Kaz for his remaining arbitration years. The future is bright for the young Rays, as their star-studded farm system pours its talent into the bigs the main difficulty will be getting playing time spread around. They’ll have a number of big trading chips; building the value of these guys at the ML level will only make Hunsicker’s job easier.

If Maddon can find a few serviceable bullpen arms and some starters overachieve the Rays could challenge third place. I’m about to sound like a pathetic homer, but it will take a remarkable changing of the guard in the next five years for the playoff door to open. The Red Sox and Yankees have first and second all but locked down, and if they falter the Blue Jays are poised to contend. Don’t count out the deep pockets of Peter Angelos in Baltimore either. The East is incredible.

Prediction: 69-93

P.S. Nice win on Senior Night, Orangemen. Who wants to dance?