2006 Record: 80-82, 3rd NL Central

Projected Lineup:
CF Ryan Freel
2B Brandon Phillips
RF Ken Griffey
LF Adam Dunn
3B Edwin Encarnacion
1B Scott Hatteberg
C Dave Ross
SS Alex Gonzalez

Projected Rotation:
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Eric Milton
Kyle Lohse
Elizardo Ramirez

Closer:
David Weathers

Outlook:
Like Colorado, the Red Legs were one of baseball’s nice little surprises in 2006. Manager Jerry Narron seemed to push all the right buttons last season, as his squad outperformed their Pythagorean record of 76-86 by 4 wins, and actually contended for a good portion of the year. In 2006, GM Wayne Krivsky made two notable trades: one turned out spectacularly, the other made the baseball world shake its collective head in disbelief.

Shortly before the 2006 season began, the Reds dealt promising yet flawed OF Wily Mo Pena to the Boston Red Sox for starter Bronson Arroyo. At first glance, this trade seemed to be a bit of a coup for Boston: Wily Mo was a 24 year old athletic slugger with an explosive bat and tons of upside. Arroyo was viewed as a 6th arm in the Boston rotation, a 29-year-old guy with a 98 ERA+, essentially your typical league-average right-handed pitcher. However, much to the chagrin of Boston fans, Arroyo shocked the National League with an All-Star performance. Wily Mo, meanwhile, produced reasonably well in a limited role for Boston, but made a few gaffes in RF which drew the ire of the unforgiving Fenway crowd, and caused the relentless WEEI-nation to pine for the guitar-strumming hurler.

That was the good trade. The trade which baffled fans and analysts everywhere occurred in mid-season, when Krivsky sent away 3 promising young players (Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner) to the Washington Nationals, in exchange for 2 young relievers (Gary Majewski and Bill Bray), the mummified corpse of Royce Clayton, and some flotsam and jetsam. Bray is a useful lefty arm, but Majewski is currently suffering shoulder pains. The two make an interesting tandem, as Majewski is effective against right-handers, while Bray is stronger versus lefties. However, the trade of Kearns and Lopez leaves a void on the roster today, as Cincinnati was forced to overpay for the likes of Alex Gonzalez to occupy SS, and forced to rely on 37-year-old Scott Hatteberg at first base.

We’ll get to the lineup later, let’s take a look at the starting rotation.

As you probably know, the art of ranking starting pitchers 1 through 5 is arbitrary, and doesn’t carry a whole lot of water.  Barring serious injuries, a #4 starter will receive just as many starts as the Opening Day starter, and the rotation will be inevitably shuffled, due to rain-outs and minor injuries, among other things.  When I rank starting pitchers here, I am simply raking them in the order that they will most likely be used at the beginning of the year.  In some cases, the #1 starter may not be the best starter.  However, not in this case: if I had to pick between Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang to start one game, I would choose Harang.  He has much better peripherals and better stuff than our old co-ed dormitory-invading friend.  Thus, he is my #1 here.  Despite Harang having an ERA a half-run higher than Bronson, he was the better pitcher in 2006; better K/9, better K/BB, and almost an identical HR rate.  He led the league in strikeouts, starts, and shutouts in 2006, we well as wins.  The Reds recently made a very smart move, inking the 28-year-old ace to a four-year, $36.5 million deal.

Arroyo returns to the rotation after a career year, leading the league in innings pitched, finishing 4^th in ERA, and pitching in the All-Star game.  Perhaps it’s my Boston bitterness coming through here, or perhaps it’s the fact that Bronson had Lady Luck on his side in 2006 (a .262 BABIP from a flyball pitcher), but I see a rude awakening for Arroyo in 2007.  Expect a few of those fly balls to carry a little bit farther this year, expect him to give up roughly 35 homers, and expect that ERA to rise at least 1 full run.  Which isn’t to say he’ll have a bad season…his performance will simply normalize, relative to his true abilities.

After Harang and Arroyo, the quality of Reds pitching falls off a cliff.  Their 3^rd starter, Eric Milton, gives up more homers than the CPU pitcher in Nintendo’s Baseball Stars.  Thanks to one of the more questionable contracts in recent history, Milton will be making nearly $10,000,000 next year, and he is a lock to give up 40 HRs if healthy.  Per 200 NL innings pitched, Milton averages 43 home runs allowed.  Unless Reds ownership decides to bulldoze the walls at the Great American Ballpark and create an actual MLB stadium, Milton will have a long, tortuous season.  Expect an ERA around 6.00. 

After Milton is yet another Minnesota ex-pat: Kyle Lohse.  The infamously inconsistent Lohse does show some promise: he has decent stuff, and performed relatively well as a starter in Cincinnati after a mid-season trade.  He’s only 28 (I know, it feels like he’s been around forever), so I suppose there is a chance the right-hander could break out.  He has strong peripherals (7.3 K/9, 1 HR per 9 innings, 2.7 K/BB in Cincy) and a live arm.  I would wager my soul that Lohse will outperform Eric Milton in the rotation in 2007.  However, even at his best, Lohse is just about average.       

Bringing up the rear of the rotation to begin the season will be Elizardo Ramirez.  The young Dominican was in the Cincinnati rotation for much of 2006, as was frustratingly inconsistent.  At times, he could dominate (striking out 7 straight batters in one game), but he mostly proved to be very hittable in his rookie campaign.  In 2007, Elizardo will be looking over his shoulder, as uber-prospect Homer Bailey will be drawing some serious attention in AAA.  If he pitches in AAA anywhere near as effectively as he pitched in AA, the Cincinnati media and fans will be clamoring for the debut of the big Texan.  Newly acquired Kirk Saarloos (check out my Oakland preview, which was written before they sent him here) will also be making a bid to unseat Elizardo, although Kirk will likely start as a long reliever. 

The Reds bullpen picture is not quite as dreary as the back-end of the rotation.  Although the roles have yet to be defined, the Reds boast a decent combination of quality veterans and promising youngsters.  Their closer, Eddie Guardado, is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, and will not be ready to contribute until mid-season.  In his stead, the closer position is not exactly set in stone.  David Weathers handled the duties in 2006, pitching fairly well (3.54 ERA in 74 innings), and looks to be the best bet to open the season as the team’s primary 9^th inning option.  Veteran lefty Mike Stanton returns to the Reds, after proving to still be useful in 2006.  Since Weathers and Stanton will be turning 38 and 40, respectively, the Reds would be wise to have a Plan B available, in case the wheels were to fall off of the geezers.  Rounding out the geriatric faction of the pen is old friend Rheal Cormier.  The wily lefty is essentially the Jamie Moyer of relievers, a guy with a fastball in the 80’s who is still chugging along, way past his expiration date.  Rheal is not a LOOGY (nor are any of the Reds lefties), and I wouldn’t put much stock into his future in the MLB.  He did have a 2.44 ERA last season, so it is not improbable that he will be once again effective in 2007, despite my bearish predictions.

The young arms in the bullpen include Matt Belisle (righty, 26), Bill Bray (lefty, 23), and Todd Coffey (righty, 26).  If I were assigning bullpen roles for the Red Legs, Coffey would be my choice for closer.  3.58 ERA last season despite a high BABIP, decent control and stuff.  I cannot realistically envision David Weathers out-pitching Coffey under normal circumstances, at this stage of their careers.  Belisle is a guy who can start, and he does have an outside shot at that 5^th rotation spot.  Bray in the most promising player acquired in the Kearns/Lopez deal, and can pitch effectively to both left and right-handers. 

Except for the SS position, the Cincinnati starting lineup will be just about the same as it was when the 2006 season ended.  The one newcomer, Alex “Seabass” Gonzalez, will bring his flashy glove-work and heads-up brand of play from Beantown to the National League.  Alex will not be reminding anyone of Arky Vaughan, with a career OPS of .684 (among the lowest in the league).  He will, however, be challenging Omar Vizquel for the 2007 Gold Glove Award, and will provide more than a few “ESPN Moments” while patrolling the infield.

Joining Seabass in the middle infield will be second baseman Brandon Phillips.  Phillips and I have something in common: we both put on 10 pounds in the off-season.  However, while I put on ten pounds of doughy office-flab, Brandon added 10 pounds of lean muscle.  If there is one player in the Reds lineup who will break out this season, Phillips is the safest bet to be that guy.  The 24-year-old looks to continue a promising jumpstart to what was once a floundering career, after hitting 17 homers and stealing 25 bases in 2006.

At the corner infield positions stand Scott Hatteberg (1B) and Edwin Encarnacion (3B).  Hatteberg’s strengths are well known to most of us, but alas, our old friend is getting a bit long in the tooth.  The converted first baseman still has the eye of an osprey, drawing 77 walks and only 41 strikeouts.  However, he will not be improving at this stage, and the Reds put themselves at a disadvantage without a more productive hitter at such a key position.  While Hatteberg sails toward the sunset of a respectable career, Encarnacion sails in the opposite direction.  The 24-year-old posted an .832 OPS in his first full season, and will look to improve this summer, particularly in the power department.  While his defense can be described as lackluster, he is young enough to improve in this area (as Hatteberg did not too long ago).

The Reds added some veteran leadership to their bench this off-season, acquiring racquetball king Jeff Conine from the Baltimore Orioles.  Even at age 40, Jeff can still hit a little, and will serve as a bat off the bench and defensive replacement for Scott Hatteberg at first.  Juan Castro, the sure-handed middle infielder, will return in a utility role, backing up Gonzalez and Phillips.  Another familiar face, discriminating swinger Mark Bellhorn (One Of The 25), has agreed to a minor league contract, and will vie for a spot on the bench.

Catcher David Ross will assume the bulk of the backstop duties after a career year in 2006, in which the 29-year-old crushed 21 HRs in only 247 at-bats.  If I had to use one word to describe Ross, it would be “Mirabelli”.  Honestly, Ross’ game is identical to Mirabelli’s (when Dougie was younger).  Dangerous power, huge holes in his swing.  Lots of strikeouts.  Crushes left-handers, gets torn apart by right-handers.  Slow as hell. Decent arm.  The only differences between Ross and Belli are their age and the batting gloves.  Since Jason LaRue was dealt to Kansas City, Javier Valentin looks to inherit the #2 role behind Ross.  The switch hitting backstop is one of the better backup catchers in baseball, and will provide value both offensively and defensively while giving Ross the occasional rest.

The strength of this Reds team, once again, is their outfield.  Ken Griffey, shockingly, is recovering from an injury (broken hand), but he should be playing in Spring Training games by the Ides of March, at the very latest.  Word on the street is that the future Hall of Famer will finally make the move to right field, and the speedy Ryan Freel will take over in center.  This has yet to be confirmed, but since it seems like the logical move, it probably won’t happen.  Griffey can still hit, obviously not like the Kingdome version, but an .800 OPS over 130 games can be expected.  Freel is an interesting little player: he can run (career 77% in SB attempts), he gets on base (.367 career OBP), and his slugging percentage almost cracked .400 last season.  All things considered, Freel is a fine leadoff option.

Finally, we get to the towering monstrosity in left field, Adam Dunn.  Dunn possesses what John Sickles would describe as “old player skills”: power and patience, size and strength, but zero agility.  Dunn is still young, only 27, but the trends in his offensive production present more red flags than a Chinese government office.  His last 3 SLG% totals: .569, .540, .490.  His last 3 OBP totals: .388, .387, .365.  Last season, he stuck out in a whopping 35% of his plate appearances (this is among the highest in baseball history).  Perhaps a full-time move to LF will be good for Dunn, and he’ll be able to think more about his offense, rather than dwelling on picking throws out of the dirt.  To me, however, it looks like he is simply slowing down.

Backing up the outfielders will be the promising 26-year-old Wheaton College graduate, Chris Denorfia.  When Griffey makes his obligatory trip to the DL this year, the slap-hitting Denorfia will get the bulk of the playing time.  A dark-horse candidate to land a backup job is the speedy Hopper Norris, last year’s International League batting champion (.347).  One other name I will note, only because it is a good story, is Rule 5 selection Josh Hamilton.  The former #1 draft pick has made a remarkable comeback from drug addiction, but the odds of him making the 25-man roster are close to zilch, as the Reds outfield is more crowded than a Tokyo subway.

The Reds do have some promising young talent, but I have 3 problems with this team:

1) They overachieved last season.
2) It does not appear that they have improved.  Any surges by guys like Phillips and Encarnacion will likely be washed by a decline from the likes of Dunn and Arroyo.
3) The rest of the NL Central (with the possible exception of Houston) has improved.

Unfortunately for Baseball’s First Franchise, this team looks to be one of the weaker squads in an already weak division.

Prediction:  75-87

Top 10 Prospects
Homer Bailey RHP
Jay Bruce OF
Joey Votto 1B
Johnny Cueto RHP
Travis Woods LHP
Drew Stubbs OF
Paul Janish SS
Milton Loo SS
Sean Watson RHP
Chris Dickerson OF