Pittsburgh Pirates 2007 Preview
2006 Record: 57-95, 5th place NL Central
Projected Lineup:
3B Freddy Sanchez
CF Chris Duffy
LF Jason Bay
1B Adam LaRoche
RF Xavier Nady
2B Jose Castillo
C Ronnie Paulino
SS Jack Wilson
Projected Rotation:
Ian Snell
Zach Duke
Paul Maholm
Tom Gorzelanny
Tony Armas
Closer:
Salamon Torres?
Outlook:
We here at Dewey’s House encountered a bit of a dilemma while preparing for the upcoming season. We had some difficulty deciding which of us should be rewarded with the task of previewing the 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates. So, like any group of sophisticated gentlemen, we decided to settle it the proper way: via a Royal Rumble. You know, three men enter the ring, one man leaves?
Well, I was the first man tossed out of the ring. So, without further ado, your 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates!
We understand the gloom in Pittsburgh, to an extent. I see somewhat of a parallel to our Boston Celtics franchise: an historic, once-proud organization currently stuck in a quagmire of failure, due mostly to front-office ineptitude. The last time the Pirates had a winning season, Tim Wakefield was a brash 25-year-old rookie starter (just to put things in perspective).
The Bucs did cause quite a stir recently by making the first significant trade of 2007 with the Atlanta Braves. Now, when we hear that Dave Littlefield just consummated a trade with John Schuerholz, we will tend to assume that it’s some sort of package involving Jason Bay for Ryan Langerhans. However, that wasn’t the case. The Pirates sent closer Mike Gonzales and minor league shortstop Brent Lillibridge to Atlanta, for 27-year-old slugger Adam LaRoche. 2006 was a breakout year for LaRoche, who hit .285/.354/.561 with 32 HRs in 492 at-bats while playing first base for Atlanta. In Pittsburgh, he takes over a position held primarily by Sean Casey (before he was traded) and Xavier Nady. LaRoche brings some much needed pop to a Pirates lineup that was seriously devoid of it: Pittsburgh was dead last in the NL in slugging percentage, home-runs, and runs scored in 2006. If LaRoche comes close to his 2006 production, his bat will be a significant improvement over the likes of Jeromy Burnitz and Jose Bautista (Nady will move to RF, Bautista will have a reduced role).
The main question is: do the Pirates need LaRoche more than they needed Mike Gonzales? They will be involved in more than a few close games, and Gonzales was clearly the only shut-down swing-and-miss arm in an otherwise serviceable bullpen. He will likely be replaced by the likes of Damaso Marte or Salamon Torres, who can both hold their own in the late innings, but neither are dominant. Will the loss of Gonzales’ 10.67 K/9 be worth the acquisition of LaRoche’s .915 OPS at first base? Dave Littlefield has gambled that it will.
If there is one thing that should stop the Steel City fans from weeping in their yellow towels for 5 minutes, it is the potential of a young, interesting starting rotation. They may not have anybody in the King Felix/Verlander stratosphere, but they do have a decent 25-and-under quartet, four guys who are healthy, can keep the team in the ballgame, and should improve on their 2006 performances.
The youngest of the group, Zack Duke, could be the best starter in the rotation at this point. The left-hander set the NL afire with a mid-season 2005 debut, going 8-2 with a 1.82 ERA, and finishing 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting. His 2006 performance was much more pedestrian, starting 34 games with a 4.47 ERA (100 ERA+, “average”, in other words). He has shown remarkable durability, good control, and he keeps the ball in the ballpark (career 0.6 HR/9). He does have a bit more trouble with right-handed hitters, but if he refines his changeup, he’ll become a more complete pitcher. Duke will never be a swing-and-miss guy, he’ll need to rely on pitch location. A performance somewhere in between 2005 and 2006 should be expected.
This next guy, Ian Snell, is perhaps the exact opposite of Zach Duke. A right-hander, Snell relies on his mid-90’s fastball and hard curve, and fanned over 8 batters per game in 2006, leading the team in strikeouts. He has difficulty facing left-handed hitters, he’ll occasionally have control problems, and has trouble with the long ball (1.40 HR/9). Snell also made a bit of a stir when he admitted his dislike for the city of Pittsburgh on ESPN radio in October. He then went straight to Bill Cowher’s house and shaved off the coach’s sacred mustache while he slept. If Snell can improve his command against lefties (and fire Derek Bell as his PR consultant), he could easily emerge as the staff ace, given his overpowering stuff. Reports indicate that he will indeed start on Opening Day.
Paul Maholm, a big lefty who was the 8th overall pick in the 2003 draft, is more in the mold of Duke: a pitcher who will need to rely on impeccable command to succeed in the majors. He does have an arsenal of four pitches, but his fastball is usually in the high 80’s. He hasn’t been able to fool right-handed hitters as of yet; they hit .313 of Paul in 2006, compared to the paltry .233 from left-handers. Like the two pitchers above, Maholm still has time to work on his off-speed pitches and location, and hopefully reduce that nasty L/R split. Despite being the most highly regarded pitcher of the four on draft day, Maholm now has perhaps the lowest ceiling of the group, and will likely end up in the bullpen if he can’t eventually figure out right-handed hitters.
The last, but not least (and maybe the most interesting) of the four is the guy who was drafted one round after Maholm: Tom Gorzelanny. Although his name is not quite Dickensian, Gorzelanny became a household name with prospect enthusiasts in 2006 by plowing through AAA Indianapolis, and pitching well in 11 games for Pittsburgh. He has a hard fastball and slider, and a changeup to compliment them. While only allowing 3 HRs, he stuck out 40 in 60 innings in the majors, a strikeout rate of 6 per game, which should improve over a full season in 2007. The one knock against Tom is stamina; he averaged less than 6 innings per start in 2006 between AAA and the NL. Since the bullpen looks significantly weaker after trading away their best pitcher, the team will need Tom to go deeper in games.
The final rotation spot will go to newly acquired Tony Armas Jr. The 28-year old right-hander had a lousy season in 2006, with an ERA over 5.00 while pitching in a renowned pitcher’s environment at RFK stadium. Still, Armas is a solid favorite to win the final rotation spot, and will likely get only mild competition from the 6th starter and likely long-man in the bullpen: Shawn Chacon.
We’ve already touched on Marte and Torres, the two likely candidates to win the closer role in Pittsburgh, now let’s see what else the bullpen has to offer. The Pirates do have 2 promising young right-handed relievers in their organization, both just about ready to contribute to The Show: 23-year-old Matt Capps and 26-year-old Jonah Bayliss. Capps was already a significant pitcher in the MLB pen last season (3.79 ERA in 81 innings), and could get some save opportunities if Torres sputters during the year. Bayliss was dominant in AAA (58 innings, 37 hits, 67 Ks, 2.17 ERA) and should also be considered a dark horse to earn the closer’s duties. LHP John Grabow is deadly against left-handed hitters, and will see a ton of high-leverage one-out situations in the later innings. Former Milwaukee closer Danny Kolb will find himself in unfamiliar territory: he’ll be fighting for the final spot in the bullpen this spring.
On to the outfield. All-Star and franchise player Jason Bay will return to his post in LF, after pounding out a .928 OPS and 50 VORP in 2006. Bay is a jewel in this dark, cavernous coalmine of a lineup, a guy who does just about everything well (power, speed, defense, patience). At age 28, don’t bet on him slowing down, especially since he’ll have a legitimate power threat behind him in LaRoche. Look for him to represent the Yellow and Black in the Mid-Summer Classic once again. If the Pirates win a few more games, he might even get some love in the MVP debates.
After Bay, there really isn’t much else in the outfield. Chris Duffy is a speedy centerfielder who should be a lock for 30+ steals, but the scrappy Vermont native doesn’t bring much offense to the plate, and he isn’t exactly a Gold Glover. Xavier Nady, slated to start in right field, should be a decent source of offense (expect an OPS around .800), but the converted 1st baseman is a bit of a liability in the outfield. Aside from versatile utilityman Jose Bautista, who can play just about any position, there will be a bit of a spring battle for the reverse outfield spot on this roster. Former Oriole Luis Matos was invited to camp as a non-roster player, and has been impressive thus far in the Grapefruit League. Matos had an abominable season in 2006, and will battle speedy returnee Nate McLouth. Since both guys are viable defensive and pinch running options, and Matos hits from the right side of the plate while McLouth hits from the left, Jim Tracy may just decide to keep both players. Jody Gerut, who continues to cement his place in history as the 21st century Joe Charboneau, was recently cut from the team.
In addition to LaRoche, third baseman Freddy Sanchez looks to give the Pirates a decent offensive corner infield combo. Last season’s batting champion, 29, is currently suffering from a sprained knee, but he should be ready to go by Opening Day. I wouldn’t count on him winning another batting title, but a batting average over .300 and OPS around .800 should be expected. Nifty defender Jack Wilson, also 29, won’t embarrass himself at the plate these days, and second baseman Jose Castillo has a good amount of pop, and could shock the league with 25 homers. 37-year-old SS Jose Hernandez, he of the many strikeouts, is a long-shot to make the team. In addition to backup 1B/C Ryan Doumit, the team will likely go with Humberto Cota to back up starting catcher Ronny Paulino. Paulino brings a nice offensive element to the lineup, and could break out in 2006, similar to the likes of Brian McCann and Russ Martin.
The Pirates have endured a long-standing streak of futility, having not finished with a winning record since Season 2 of The Simpsons. With a beautiful new stadium, the Bucs need to start winning some games to put this historic franchise on the path to redemption. Perhaps 2007 will be a small step in that direction. Or, perhaps I’m just overly optimistic, to the point of idiocy.
Prediction: 80-82
Top 10 Prospects
Andrew McCutchen, OF
Neil Walker, C/3B
Brad Lincoln, RHP
Todd Redmond, RHP
Shelby Ford, 3B
Brian Bixler, 2B
Mike Felix, LHP
Josh Sharpless, RHP
Yoslan Herrera, RHP
Jim Negrych, 2B
I want to compliment the author on a very well-done preview. I actually would count the Pirates as a bonafide contender if they had more OBP from the lineup’s 1-2 spots. Is C Duffy a real major-league leadoff man and starting CF? I don’t think so, but I also think he’s the #1 key to this team.