Florida Marlins 2007 Preview
Projected Lineup:
SS Hanley Ramirez
2B Dan Uggla
3B Miguel Cabrera
LF Josh Willingham
1B Mike Jacobs
RF Jeremy Hermida
C Miguel Olivo
CF Alex Sanchez
Projected Rotation:
Dontrelle Willis
Scott Olsen
Anibal Sanchez
Ricky Nolasco
Yusmeiro Petit
Projected Closer:
Henry Owens
Outlook:
It just doesn’t seem fair, does it?
The Marlins, an expansion team with ugly uniforms and approximately 17 fans, come into the league in 1993, and 4 years later, they are World Champions. 6 years after that, they are World Champions again. They have seen several Future Hall-of-Famers, 4 no-hitters, 22 playoff wins, and 33 All-Stars. And then, just when we think they blew the team up, just when we think they will be rebuilding with dozens of green, unprepared rookies and Rule 5 Draft fodder, they shock the baseball world by hanging in the NL Wildcard race into autumn.
And, of course, adding insult to injury for us Sox fans, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez both have outstanding rookie campaigns, while Josh Beckett is mediocre in his AL debut.
The Fish actually should have won more games than they did in 2006, as their Pythagorean record was 80-82. Looking ahead to 2007, there is good news, and there is bad news. The good news is that they will be returning almost every key player from 2006, most of whom are young and improving. The bad news is that one of their best pitchers, 23-year-old RHP Josh Johnson, is expected to miss 2 months with an arm injury. In light of this, Florida still has a decent rotation at their disposal. The D-Train, Dontrelle Willis, provides the rotation with a durable anchor, although he is slightly inconsistent. His 4 year career can be divided into 2 parts: superb Dontrelle, and good Dontrelle. Given his pedestrian strikeout rate, would say the real Dontrelle is closer to the 2006 version (a durable above-average pitcher) than the 2005 version (a lights-out ace). Young LHP Scott Olsen has the impressive peripheral stats that indicate a possible future ace. In his rookie year, after making the jump from AA (like several of these lucky…err…talented bastards), Olsen shined with 166 Ks in 180 innings. His minor league track record suggests this was no fluke, as he average well over a K per inning before getting the call. He has excellent stuff and is seemingly durable. Look for Olsen to take ownership of this rotation over the next few years.
Anibal Sanchez, of course, brought joy to Miami (and bitterness to Boston) with a no-hitter in September, along with a bunch of other decent performances, posting a 152 ERA+ in his rookie season. One caveat to note: his stellar 2006 performance was over a half-season. NL hitters are still getting used to our old Portland Sea Dog friend, and his performances should be expected to normalize a bit in 2007. I’m not saying he won’t be good, I think he will be a decent pitcher. Just don’t expect a right-handed version of Johan Santana. His stuff isn’t that good. 24-year-old Ricky Nolasco was the team’s 5th starter for the majority of 2006, and actually was a closer candidate heading into spring training. However, the injury to Josh Johnson forces Nolasco back into the rotation. Ricky looks to improve upon a year in which he was the weak link of the rotation, giving up a 4.82 ERA and having the highest HR rate on the staff.
The fifth starter in the rotation has yet to be determined, and the battle is among a handful of guys. A few weeks ago, I would have assumed Sergio Mitre to be the front runner for the gig, but he is again having issues with injuries. Yusmeiro Petit, the former Met prospect, was recently very impressive against a powerful Red Sox lineup in spring training. With Mitre hurt, Petit look to have as good of a chance as any of the other candidates. Wes Obermueller, Jose Garcia, and Chris George round out the competition for the final rotation slot.
While the Marlins rotation seems young and impressive, the bullpen is just plain young.
With Nolasco moving back to the rotation, the closing duties seemed to be bestowed upon 24-year-old LHP Taylor Tankersley. Taylor impressed in his MLB debut, with a 2.85 ERA and 46 Ks over 41 innings. However, Tankersley is reportedly out until mid-April with shoulder inflammation. This would make rookie Henry Owens, with only 4 career innings pitched at the MLB level (and a career 9.00 ERA) the likely closer to start the year. Why is he the likely closer, do you ask? Well, in AA last season, his averaged 16.65 Ks per 9 innings. That is not a typo. 16.65 Ks per 9 innings. It will be very interesting to see what this guy can do in the National League. RHP Matt Lindstrom, who has yet to throw a pitch above AA, is reportedly a dark horse candidate for the closer’s job. Word on the street is that the righty boasts a 100 MPH fastball and a slider to compliment the heat, but I can’t conceivably see him winning the role over Owens , not without some kind of injury.
Behind the closer candidates is 24-year-old lefty Reynel Pinto, who was very impressive in a brief sample last season, RHP Kevin Gregg, a “veteran” compared to these other guys (he’s been around for 4 years, and RHP Randy Messenger.
We now move onto what is possibly the most promising young infield in the major leagues, especially the left side. Franchise player Miguel Cabrera is coming of another great season in which he hit .339/.430/.568, and played solid 3B defense (24 FRAR). Given his age and his offensive trends, this guy could possibly emerge as baseball’s best player in 2007 (he’s already on the short list with Pujols and A-Rod). At shortstop is last year’s unlikely Rookie of the Year, old friend Hanley Ramirez. Should Red Sox fans be upset about this? No. Hanley and Beckett are now two completely independent entities, and his success has nothing to do with Boston (unless, of course, the Sox happen to be playing Florida). Anyway, a lot of folks really bemoaned this deal with some 20/20 hindsight, but let me remind all of you: nobody expected Hanley to be this good. In 2005, in AA, Hanley’s line was this: .271/.335/.385. Next year, in the major leagues, he improves to .292/.353/.480? I can’t really fault the Sox for this; it just seems like Hanley had a bit of a fluke season. Expect a regression for Hanley, with numbers closer to that Portland line. Speaking of fluke seasons, Dan Uggla etched his name into the records of great Rule 5 picks such as Johan Santana and Roberto Clemente. The second baseman made the All-Star team and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting, while bashing 27 HRs and slugging .480. Like his double play partner, expect a slight deflation of what appear to be some overly inflated power numbers. I would not be surprised to see Mike Jacobs out-produce both Uggla and Ramirez in 2007. The 26-year-old has some genuine power, with a career slugging percentage of .515. Backing up the infielders will be Aaron Boone (yes, he’s in Florida now…that pick-up basketball game was more damaging that Chris Webber’s TO in the Final Four) and Alfredo Amezaga.
While the Florida infield has some young, proven talent, the outfield picture is a bit cloudier. Jeremy Hermida, who was expected to be one of the best rookies in the 2006 class, is looking to improve upon what should probably be called a disappointing season. He hasn’t lit any fires in spring training, going 0-14 thus far, but we’ll wait until April to pass judgment on the kid. Converted catcher Josh Willingham returns to LF after sharing the team lead in homers with Cabrera. He’s still learning the ropes in the outfield, as his defense I 2006 was sub-par (-11 FRAR), but he is a legitimate power bat, and will provide some much-needed pop.
Their choices in CF are not exactly appetizing. The #1 contender, Alex Sanchez, is best known for being the first guy suspended from the revamped MLB steroid policy. Sanchez did play well in 2005 and in the minors in 2006, and could probably outplay last year’s CF, Reggie Abercrombie. Abercrombie posted a dismal line of .212/.271/.333 in 2006, which isn’t any better than Cody Ross: .212/.284/.396, or Joe Borchard: .230/.322/.400. Eric Reed (.098/.178/.098) is also an option (yikes). Unless a move is made, the Fish could very well be looking at a festering hole in the middle of their 2007 outfield. Miguel Olivo and Matt Treanor will handle the catching duties. Oliva does have some pop, and is a decent defensive catcher, but Treanor does not bring much to the table on either side of the ball.
While the Marlins have a very promising young lineup, and the layperson might look at this and think: “Gosh, these guys are all going to get better”, I can’t help but predict a massive regression to the mean by Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, and to a lesser extent, Taylor Tankersley and Anibal Sanchez. However, those regressions will likely be offset by improvement from the likes of Hermida, Olsen, possibly Willis, and (as scary as it is) Miguel Cabrera.
Expect 3rd place.
Projection: 79-83
Top 10 Prospects:
Chris Volstad, RHP
Taylor Tankersley, LHP
Sean West, LHP
Reynel Pinto, LHP
Henry Owens, RHP
Matt Lindstrom, RHP
Gaby Hernandez, RHP
Chris Coghlan, 3B
Jose Garcia, RHP
Aaron Thompson, LHP
Just for the record, Lindstrom is right handed.
Whoops, typo. Good catch Fishman, thanks.