Kansas City Royals 2007 Preview
2006: 62-100, 5th in AL Central
Lineup
CF David DeJesus (L)
2B Mark Grudzielanek (R)
RF Mark Teahen (L)
DH Mike Sweeney (R)
1B Ryan Shealy (R)
3B Alex Gordon (L)
LF Emil Brown (R)
C Jason LaRue (R)
SS Angel Berroa (R)
Rotation
RHP Gil Meche
LHP Odalis Perez
RHP Luke Hudson
LHP Jorge de la Rosa
RHP Zack Greinke
Closer
Octavio Dotel
In continuation of the “soft stuff in the middle” phase of the Dewey’s House previews, I present your 2007 Kansas City Royals!
Over the last three seasons the Royals have allowed more than 905 runs and scored less than 757, which has translated to a pitiful best of 100 losses. Since winning 83 in 2003 there has been little joy on the banks of the Missouri River, with Mike Sweeney the biggest loser in this disaster. After making it clear during 2003 contract negotiations that he would remain loyal as long as the Royals were committed to winning, his stipulation of a .500 finish in 2003 locked him into the final three years of the deal. He should have been more aggressive in his winning demands, since then he has languished on a miserable team, watching his prime years slip away due to injury.
In five of the six major team pitching categories, the Royals were dead last in the league in 2006. If you’re curious, they managed 12th place in saves. It would be too easy to recap the things that went wrong in 2006, and after all, this is a preview not a review. In the great words of the Bart and Lisa’s overlord Kang “We must move forward… not backwards, not to the side, not forwards, but always whirling, whirling, whirling towards freedom” (Treehouse of Horror VII). I’ll do us all a favor and move on.
Hope rests in the talent of third basemen Alex Gordon. The second overall pick in the 2005 draft tore through the system like his pants were on fire, tossing up a AA 1.015 OPS and stealing 22 of 25 bases in 2006. He’s had a bit of a sore shoulder this spring after diving for a ball, but should be out no more than a week. Rarely does a young player move a team’s best hitter out of position, but Buddy Bell has said that Gordon will push Mark Teahen to the outfield. Teahen made a vast improvement over his poor effort in 2005, but I’d say he played to the height of his ability last year. That’s not to say he’ll be a liability either in the field or at the plate, everyone should be happy with a WARP around 5.5. He’s athletic and has the arm for right field; his transition should be a smooth one.
David DeJesus and Ryan Shealy round out possibly the AL’s most talented group of young players that will be opening day starters. If not a perfect lead off hitter, DeJesus gets on base at a good clip (.364) and runs well. He’s not a stolen base threat, with a career high of eight (with 11 caught stealing). I’ve always enjoyed watching DeJesus play, and it’s not because of his movie-star good looks. Shealy looks and swings a little like Travis Hafner and is destined to end up a designated hitter once Mike Sweeney bolts town after this season, opening up 1B for prospect Justin Huber. The oft-injured Sweeney has missed at least 40 games over the last 4 seasons so he’ll need to remain healthy this year if he hopes to get a multi-year deal after 2007. He’s a young 33 so breaking the 30 home run barrier for the first time in his career isn’t out of the question. I wouldn’t expect anything approaching his 2000 total of 144 RBIs, but he’ll once again be the centerpiece of the KC lineup.
I don’t know much about Esteban German’s defense at 2B, but it must be pretty awful if they chose to resign aging Mark Grudzielanek instead of giving German and his .422 OBP the job. Third base is crowded and Reggie Sanders has the fourth OF spot, so German will be the first guy off the bench in the infield. I put Emil Brown slightly ahead of Sanders for the starting job in left based mostly on youth over age, but it could easily be the opposite.
The recipient of the inaugural Dewey’s House Worst Regular of the Year award is Angel Berroa. He managed to finish last in the league in both OBP and SLG, which miraculously translates to a last place finish in OPS as well. Somehow his OPS+ is still 48; that’s gotta be a bug in the formula. I think we should rename the DHWROY simply, the Berroa, but I can’t start making decrees just yet. His defense was bad, and his offense could be replaced by anyone not named Tony Womack. The situation at short has moved from an Orange Alert to firmly Red, and it doesn’t get much better from here. Angel Sanchez is the heir apparent, but evidently his power stroke compares more favorably to your sister’s than to Alex Gordon’s. German should be worth a look at short, but that makes way too much sense.
The end of the lineup is easily the worst in the league. Jason LaRue and Berroa’s OPS+ is a respectable 113, when added together. John Buck will be in the mix behind the plate as well, but was only slightly less terrible than LaRue last year.
In one of the most confusing and shortsighted signings of this offseason, Dayton Moore threw $55 million at Gil Meche for league average performance. I wish I could get my salary tripled for being completely average, I think I’ll bring up the case of Gil Meche during my next performance review. For what it’s worth, he’s the “ace,” maybe he’ll find his new title inspirational.
If you’re a chick (doubtful) and you’re ever on plane with Odalis Perez (also highly unlikely) DON’T give him your phone number. There is a story behind that, but maybe Mrs. Odalis reads Dewey’s House and I wouldn’t want to be responsible for any marital difficulties. Let’s just leave it at that. In terms of performance, Odalis also might be league average. When your top two starters have a “solid shot” at an average performance you might want to reevaluate your system.
My sleeper for a breakout season on this squad is Luke Hudson. He’s done a great job at preventing home runs, averaging half a homer every nine innings last year. If he can continue to get his share of groundball outs and keep the ball in the park his .315 BABIP should go down, along with his ERA. The defense (Berroa) behind him has probably hurt him significantly in the past.
The two spots at the end of the rotation are still unclear, but it will be some combination of Zack Grienke, Jorge de la Rosa, Brian Bannister, and eventually 2006 number one overall pick Luke Hochevar. The first two guys on that list are the favorites, as they have the most major league experience, but it will be a trial by fire for the young guys. In KC, even the major league squad is a development team.
After last year’s guy-that-pitched-at-the-end-of-games (I hesitate to call anyone with a S/BS ratio of 18/12 a closer) Ambiorix Burgos was shipped to the Mets for Bannister, Dayton Moore addressed the need in the form of Octavio Dotel. I guess Dotel has a decent chance of coming back, but he certainly won’t be helped by the abuse his arm took with other organizations. Still, it was an uncharacteristically good move at $5 million with valuable bonuses. Dotel will get $200,000 for each five games finished after 15. I’d agree that 20 saves are worth $200k more than 15, and his base salary is right in Joel Pineiro’s tax bracket. After Dotel, Joel Peralta, David Riske, Todd Wellemeyer, and Ken Ray should get the majority of the innings in roughly that order.
The house of David Glass has been on shaky ground lately and this season’s additions won’t prevent the coming disaster. If Hochevar develops as scheduled and Billy Butler and Mitch Maier stay healthy and on track the Royals will have a lot to show for those 100 loss seasons and high draft picks. Right now, everybody’s 0-0, so there’s a little hope. Take solace in the fact that you aren’t the worst team in the league, yet.
Prediction: 65-97
hey zach,
good column, as usual. I want to get your opinion on the soxs giving papelbon and youklis short term contracts worth a pitence of each of their value.
I know they did not have to do more but I think a smart move would be to sign each of them to three year deals with increases to merit each of their contribution and thereby locking each into a long term deal at a reduced rate.
i dont think they were confident in their ability to determine the papelbon’s value considering his shoulder and transition to the rotation. remember, he struggled the second time through the order during his 2005 cameo. if they were to give him a contract based on last year’s performance they’d likely be overpaying.
regarding youkilis, he’s never going to be an expensive sign. i think he played to just below his ceiling last year and the club will ride out his arbitration years at the lowest possible cost. he’s not a great value at third base, and even worse at first.
while it might have been a nice show of good faith to sign each to a longer deal, the chances of it being a money-saving move are slim.
Faith is what sustains us, of course. Keep up the good work here.
–Tao