2006: 96-66, 1st in AL Central, swept by Oakland Athletics in LDS

Projected Lineup
2B Luis Castillo (B)
3B Nick Punto (B)
C Joe Mauer (L)
RF Michael Cuddyer (R)
1B Justin Morneau (L)
CF Torii Hunter (L)
LF Rondell White (R)
DH Jason Kubel (L)
SS Jason Bartlett (R)

Projected Rotation
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Boof Bonser
RHP Carlos Silva
RHP Ramon Ortiz
RHP Matt Garza

Closer
RHP Joe Nathan

“Contraction is coming. There will be at least two fewer teams in the major leagues next year. Is it the answer to all the ails baseball? Absolutely not. Is it a proper step in attempting to restructure the economic foundation of the greatest game in the world? Absolutely.”
- Karl Ravech, February 8, 2002

If Bud got his wish back in 2001, maybe Justin Morneau would be be wearing a B on his cap instead of the interlocking TC.  Then again, maybe Joe Mauer would work in the Bronx.  The lowly Twins of eight straight sub-.500 finishes were being circled by the vultures known as the Major League Baseball attorneys, destined for the guillotine, or so King Selig would like us (and the Players’ Association) to believe.  Well Bud, your “competitive imbalance” and “economic crisis” have changed quite a bit since then.  Les Expos Neauvoux are now drawing on the wealth of Washington and the Twins stadium deal will go through, eventually.  Owner Carl Pohlad has expressed a commitment to the Twin Cities, reaching deeper into his pockets to make the stadium deal work than he’s put into the payroll in years.  Across the board, owners are making record profits and salaries have skyrocketed.

Every team has a flaw.  In Minnesota, it’s a thin rotation in which two young pitchers are expected to improve.  While the lineup will come close to their 801 runs scored last year, the pitching staff will undoubtedly surrender more than 683.  The loss of wunderkid Fransisco Liriano will be felt to the core.  Carlos Silva must return to his 71/9 K/BB form of 2005 for the Twinkies to contend in 2007.

I still chuckle every time I hear “Boof Bonser.“  In my mind he’s some twisted Biff Tannen/Cliff Claven doppleganger.  I hope you realize there is no greater praise than being compared to those two American heroes; by the way, John Ratzenberger is on the new season of “Dancing with the Stars.”  I think I’ll go tango with my mailman to show my support.  The Pohlad grandkids are rooting for Boof to catch Marty McFly this time around, hoverboard and all.  Two-plus years in AAA?  An 18 start tryout on a team that didn’t care if you failed?  It’s put-up or shut-up time Biff, I mean…Boof.  Really though, he was pretty damn good last year, a 4.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are worth a “Good job, Rook, now carry my luggage and put on that tutu.”  If not a “thank you” or “nice legs” afterwards.

What happened to you, L’il Pedro?  You used to scare my socks off when I saw you in the Pitching Probables against Frank Castillo.  It certainly didn’t look like you were juicin’, you couldn’t have been more than 165 back in 2002.  You’ve bounced from Cincinatti to Les Expos Neauvoux and now you’ve landed in the Hefty ™ bag.  An ERA around 5.00 is approximately the upper boundary on success from Rrrrrramon Ortiz.  P.S. I keep rolling my rrrr’s like a latino porn star and inadvertently gleeking all over my keyboard. Try it, I’m sure the intern in the cube next to you will think its totally sexy.

It turns out that parts of California are NOT on the beach.  I know, I was floored as well.  I was ready to launch into a tirade about how lucky Matt Garza was for sailing through a few years at Fresno State, striking out over-matched opponents and hangin’ out on the beach with a bevy of buxom beauties, but there are no beaches in Fresno according to Google Maps.  Well, at least he’s got all that talent to fall back on.  The 2005 top draft pick has been nothing but successful since joining the professional ranks, I only question his ability to increase his innings over a long schedule.  Thankfully, the Twins organization has been historically adept at keeping young starters healthy (save Liriano).  If he continues on the same trend he’ll be no worse than the third best pitcher on this team.

Everyone’s favorite rowdy Aruban, Sidney Ponson, will be there to eat some innings in the event of injury.  Scott Baker also provides some depth, and wasn’t as bad as his 6.37 ERA suggests.  His April 14th start against the Yankees is evidence enough of his ability.  Another hot prospect, Glen Perkins, is waiting in the wings.

So, the Radke era is over.  (Tear.)  He was a bastion of consistency, unfortunately he wasn’t consistently excellent.  The Twins have successfully reloaded with young starters, but there won’t be time for development in a strong and balanced division.  Last year the offense underwent a similar transition.  No longer is Torii Hunter the centerpiece of the lineup, my MVP, Joe Mauer, and his sidekick Justin Morneau emerged to no one’s surprise as elite hitters.  I’m confident that Mauer will be similarly good, if not win another batting title, but I have my doubts about More-No.  For all the praise heaped on young Joe, little is uttered about Justin.  My hesitance to proclaim him the next Todd Helton is based on instinct more than reason, everything about his numbers suggests continued success.

From the “holy shit, I didn’t see that coming” department we’re joined by Michael Cuddyer.  He doubled his previous best home run and RBI totals, which is no doubt remarkable, but his 130 Ks don’t bode well.  He walked a fair amount (62), but I hate swings and misses nearly as much as I hate the NCAA selection committee right now.  This team is very left-handed, they need a guy like Cuddyer to produce for everything to jive.  No pressure, kid.  Cut down those Ks and we’ll talk.

The top of the lineup did its job reasonably well last year, but regression should be expected.  Luis Castillo is no spring chicken, he’ll be 32 by the end of the season, and his talent for getting from point A to point B faster than the average player will wane with every step.  He’s never been a five tool guy, but he’s a patient hitter (3.98 P/PA) and usually provides solid defense.  Nick Punto is a Gardenhire favorite, but also lacks any semblance of power.  He’s slotted for the two hole, but he’s a bottom of the barrel corner infielder.  His range is adequate for second base and he has experience there, so look for him to take over for Castillo in 2008.  I can definitely see Mike Lowell in a Twins uni next year.

Outfield defensive skill is very difficult to measure, and perception (usually of centerfielders) is often skewed by what I like to call The Griffey Effect.  I know you remember when Ken Griffey Jr. was basically the co-host of Sportscenter, making catches over the Kingdome wall nightly like it was old hat.  People like myself saw this and drew the conclusion that he was a fantastic defensive CF.  Well, obviously a player that has a wall just high enough to jump over in his home stadium will be better at making those catches, have more chances to do it, and therefore save a few more home runs.  I’m not saying Griffey is a poor centerfielder, but fans and experts alike jumped to the conclusion that he was the best based on a bad sample.  Torii Hunter is another beneficiary of the Griffey Effect.  It’s his walk year, so he should be in money-making shape.

The left field situation is shaping up to be a battle.  Incumbent Rondell White is still making a go of it, but he’s got  old friend Lew Ford, Jason Tyner, and another Gardenhire favorite in Josh “Broccoli” Rabe contending for the job.  DH Jason Kubel might get some time there as well.  Matthew LeCroy is back in Minny after a quick jaunt to our nation’s capitol, look for him spelling Kubel at DH against tough lefties.  Let’s hope, for everyone’s sake, he doesn’t get any time behind the plate.  If you’ve forgotten there was an ugly incident that involved a few dozen passed balls one fateful afternoon last summer.

Jason Bartlett is the shortstop by default, but Red Sox Rule 5 pick Alejandro Machado might see some time.  Gardenhire has said the Punto won’t be used at short, but I don’t exactly understand why.  Veteran Jeff Cirillo will be a pinch hitter and utility infielder.

The Twins had the best bullpen in baseball last year.  After Joe Nathan they were Jesse Crain (3.52 ERA), Dennys Reyes (0.89!), Matt Guerrier (3.36), and Juan Rincon (2.91).  I know ERA is a poor judge of a reliever’s ability, but when a bullpen has five guys under 3.52 something is working.

Brian Sabean and his masterful acquisition of A.J. Pierzynski has laid the groundwork for a bright future in Minnesota.  This season will be moderately frustrating, but after some of the fat is trimmed next offseason, Liriano comes back strong, and the kids get another year of seasoning the Twins are poised to contend for years to come.  There’s also some dude named Johan Santana.

Prediction: 85-77