2007 Seattle Mariners Preview
2006: 78-84, 4th in AL West
Jimmy, where do you get those fancy pictures?
Projected Lineup
CF Ichiro (L)
3B Adrian Beltre (R)
DH Jose Vidro (S)
LF Raul Ibanez (L)
1B Richie Sexson (R)
RF Jose Guillen (R)
C Kenji Johjima (R)
2B Jose Lopez (R)
SS Yuniesky Betancourt (R)
Projected Rotation
RHP Felix Hernandez
LHP Jarrod Washburn
RHP Miguel Batista
RHP Jeff Weaver
LHP Horacio Ramirez
Closer
RHP J.J. Putz
It’s midnight in a Philadelphia hotel, and the only thing I want to happen in the next five minutes is the dude in the next room to realize the porn preview is A) on repeat or B) extremely loud. If he’s dead am I a witness? Gross.
It’s teams like the 2007 Mariners that give me hope. They give me hope that I’m not just some shmuck waxing and waning on the internet with words that no one particularly wants to read. They give me hope that this magical game isn’t run by a group of super-powered geniuses turned CEOs. They give me hope that someday I’ll have my happiness in the palm of my hand instead of trusting it to strangers. Why? Because I know I could run a better baseball team.
Career OBP: .328
2004 OBP: .388
Career SLG: .457
2004 SLG: .629
Career High HR (other than 04): 25
2004 HR: 48
2007 Salary: $11.5 million
Pencils down. If I have to tell you whose numbers these are, you’re coming to the wrong site. Of course, he’s only one in a long line of those who have made Bill Bavasi look like a fool. Do you think the baseball ops interns ever have to leave a conference call during fit of the giggles because Bavasi started comparing pitchers based on wins or third basemen on batting average? He’s clearly not mentally sound, someone please call a doctor.
Then there was the Rafael Soriano deal. And the Jose Vidro signing. And the Miguel Batista contract. Every general manager makes mistakes, perfection is impossible in a business based on guessing opinions, but to fail at such a consistent and obvious level is unprecedented. Even keeping Mike Hargrove manning the wheel, a guy that hasn’t had a winning season since 1999, is cause for concern. Put down that coffee, Seattle, and have an old fashioned witch hunt with Bill Bavasi the target.
He must see something I don’t in Horacio Ramirez. He’s left-handed, but his upside is around league average and he has regressed the last two seasons. Money was thrown at Jarrod Washburn and Batista like they were the last pitchers available, while both have shown flashes of brilliance they are far from sure things. Jeff Weaver is back in the AL, and probably has the most raw talent out of any of these guys. I expect Safeco to be on his side more than most and emerge as the most reliable starter in this group. Wow, I never thought I’d be endorsing Jeff Weaver.
Like a middle school crush, PECOTA is enamored with Felix Hernandez, projecting a 3.75 ERA and 8 K/9. Its certainly not an unreasonable expectation but the kid is still learning how to pitch and I can’t imagine the tone of a Johjima-Felix mound conversation. I tend to agree with Keith Woolner’s research on the lack of impact a catcher has on his pitchers’ performance, except in extreme situations. I’m about to go off on a tangent here, but after watching Varitek for the last 10 years (holy shit it’s been that long?) I think an excellent game calling catcher provides more than simply pitch selection, but a mental edge based on trust. A pitcher is always told to “trust his stuff” but how is that possible he perceives the guy the behind the plate as incompetent? I’m not saying Johjima can’t call a game, but everything I’ve heard suggests he doesn’t attempt to develop a relationship with his pitchers. A catcher that’s one step ahead of batters will be a calming influence on any hurler. Give Felix a few weeks with a guy like ‘Tek and his performance improves, guaranteed.
You can count me out of the J.J. Putz fan club. Did you suddenly realize that it was easier to get outs when the guys didn’t hit the ball? Why did your strike out numbers double last year while your innings increased marginally? Did someone just now explain that three strikes is the same as a groundout? I’m just not making the connection here. Thirty year old pitchers don’t have the drastic about-face like that you experienced in 2006. If I’m your GM, I wait at least a half a season before I trade your best set-up man and injury insurance for half his value. Oh wait, that already happened. What could Rafael Soriano have netted the M’s in June? Well, if the Red Sox closer situation shakes out like our worst fears, Craig Hansen and David Murphy could have been in teal before the summer sun is at its peak. Good thing we don’t have to worry about that.
For the record, I’m not panicking about the Sox closer sitch. I think the need will be addressed as soon as its clear that it is a need. Cool as a cucumber. That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.
After Putz (and maybe even including him) the pen is pretty average. Chris Reitsma is looking to bounce back but his previous best was underwhelming. Julio Mateo had the makings of a decent season before he dropped a stack of weights on his non-throwing hand, he should be full strength. Jon Huber had a very nice debut in the bigs last year, after his transition to the bullpen in the minors in 2004 he has adjusted well and achieved some demonstrable success. Arthur Rhodes and George Sherril are the lefties, and Cha Seung Baek will be the long man and first to step into the rotation. Baek wasn’t as good as his 3.67 ERA suggests after his call up from Tacoma last fall, Tristan Cockcroft should maybe look at his home run and strikeout numbers before declaring him a suitable replacement for Jeff Weaver.
From the Commissioner’s office: I’ve been asked by King Selig to take it easy on ole Bavasi for the next few paragraphs. Don’t worry, I’m not selling out.
I like the Mariners’ outfield. Raul Ibanez was very good again last season, if not providing good defense he complemented the other hitters in the lineup to the tune of 123 RBI. He loves hitting at lefty-friendly Safeco, his OPS is 120 points higher, but still can’t figure out LHP. It would make a lot of sense to have a capable right handed hitting fourth outfielder to spell Raul against LHP, unfortunately none of those words describe Jeremy Reed. Some of the best moves are the ones you never make, eh Theo? RHH Adam Jones might be up by midseason if Reed tanks again.
The addition of Jose Guillen moves Ichiro to center. Look for a number of frozen ropes from the gap in right to third base with these two guys fighting over doubles. Nobody has tremendous range, so balls will get down, but they’ll make up for it with obscene assist numbers. Guillen will provide nice value, I don’t care if he’s a bad clubhouse guy and has played on 7 teams since 2001. There’s no way he repeats his legendary 23 bombs/21 doubles in 315 at-bats, but a one-year $5.5m deal isn’t terrible. Ichiro is in his walk year, but an improvement is unlikely just because he’s set the bar so high. His 2004 is one of the greatest seasons of this decade, so I’d expect somewhere between last year’s .370/.416 and that .414/.455. He’s never hit for power in the states like he did in Japan, maybe his looming free agency will inspire him to hit the weights. Truly a one of a kind player, no one else gets on base with such frequency without displaying much patience at the plate.
Poor fielding second basemen suddenly deserve jobs as designated hitters? Jose Vidro has hit a total of 14 home runs over the last 2 seasons so he’s not exactly suited for cleanup, but that’s where he’s penciled in as of today. His value is probably halved or worse when he’s moved out of position. I find it very hard to believe that an offensive output comparable to Vidro’s couldn’t be found in the scrap heap of some roster if position isn’t a factor. Jose Lopez is no wizard out there either, PECOTA says he cost the team 18(!) runs last year on defense, so this roster is handcuffed by two poor fielding second basemen, both of whom are middle of the pack offensively. Give this GM a raise.
That deep left field gap in Safeco is a graveyard for Richie Sexson homers. He hits to all fields, but loves to unleash his long, slow swing and pull the ball into the gap in left. He’s just 32 and will produce up to his career averages, but don’t expect any more 45 homer campaigns when he plays 82 in Safeco.
The M’s are going to pay quite a bit for each win in 2007; there are a lot of overpaid bums enjoying the laid back lifestyle in the Pacific northwest. Ichiro’s pending contract negotiations will be a season long distraction as this team determines its direction and I’m very interested in how these talks play out. They have clearly built a fan base around him and their owner is Japanese so they have a vested interest in him, but the way money has been thrown around the last two offseasons might make them pause before a nine-figure deal. As much as I’d like to watch him in Boston, I can’t see him anywhere but in a Mariner’s uni. They’ll get it done.
EDIT: I just realized I forgot to include my record prediction.
Projected finish: 75-87
re: the pics… I just recently starting messing around with Adobe Photoshop. It’s quite addicting.
Yeah, Bavasi pretty much gave this franchise a ticket to last place for the next few years…even with King Felix in the house.