2006: 66-96, Last in NL Central

Projected Lineup
CF Alfonso Soriano (R)
SS Cesar Izturis (S)
1B Derrek Lee (R)
3B Aramis Ramirez (R)
RF Jacque Jones (L)
C Michael Barrett (R)
LF Matt Murton (R)
2B Mark DeRosa (R)

Projected Rotation
RHP Carlos Zambrano
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Mark Prior
LHP Rich Hill
RHP Jason Marquis

Projected Closer
RHP Ryan Dempster

The Cubs enter the 2007 season with expectations of a championship.  After a dismal 2006 campaign they spent $300 million on free agent acquisitions and, most importantly, will be reunited with a healthy Derrek Lee.  The pressure on this team will be greater than any of their peers; only the Red Sox  approached Cubs’ noise this offseason.  As you know, this isn’t the AL East, the Cubs don’t have the Yankees to blame if they struggle; Lou Pinella won’t be making excuses in an August press conference after being swept by the Brewers.  They have undoubtedly improved, but is it enough to put them over the top?

“Later, Dusty, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.”  I don’t know how Cubs fans put up with him for as long as they did.  How could they sit back and watch Dusty destroy Mark Prior’s career without calling for his head?  I had a college  roommate that was a casual Cubs fan, whenever I mentioned Dusty he would smile and nod, acknowledging the fact that he was hurting the team, but at the same time he was fine with the fact that they were keeping him around because he was a lovable character.  Well, baseball managers aren’t meant to be lovable.  Joe Torre and Tony “Well, officer I’m just resting my eyes” LaRussa aren’t known for a jolly Santa Claus act, they’re successful because they can balance the attitude of the clubhouse and the wishes of the owners.  I suppose Jim Hendry deserves as much blame as Baker after he let him run wild with Prior in 2003.

If anyone is skeptical of Derrek Lee’s return after missing most of last season with a fractured wrist, he’s 22-43 (.512) with a couple of homers and 6 doubles so far this spring.  Welcome back.  In other news, I’m a founding member of the Alfonso Soriano Sucks Society (ASSS).  We might have gone a click too far, he’s overrated (.325 OBP), but he certainly doesn’t suck; 40/40 is certainly nothing to scoff at.  I found his attempts at the 40th steal hilarious.  He certainly took the “green light” literally, every time he reached first even the hot dog vendors knew he was going on the first pitch.   The offense is improved, but Lee is still the lynch-pin.  Soriano will be out of position twice over, batting leadoff and roaming centerfield.  At the same time, I don’t care if he is below average defensively.  He’ll make the routine plays and hit 35 homers.  Grady Sizemore can’t say that.

So, the best parts of this lineup are superior to the cream of other offenses, but Cesar Izturis (.631 OPS) is batting second?  This is a rare case where the whole is less than the sum of the parts.  Everyone’s right-handed, except Cliff Floyd (injured) and Jacque Jones (career .328 OBP).  Yeah, Aramis Ramirez is a good player and Mark DeRosa had a career year, but from one to nine this lineup looks pretty average.   Why did Matt Murton have to go in the Nomar trade?  I don’t think he’s more than a platoon player at this point, but I never understood why he was included in that deal.  Please explain it to me.  If the Cubs had a legitimate lead off hitter and Soriano was hitting fourth I might be convinced, but this lineup doesn’t scare me.

They didn’t give Big Z his contract, which is probably a smart move.  He reeks of contract year overachiever syndrome, so I’d proceed with caution in the fall.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s been a top 10 starter over the last three years, but his career numbers should determine his next deal.  Backhanded complement summary: he’ll be NASTY in 2007.

After Z the rotation is split between steady vets and high ceiling kids.  Ted Lilly’s three year 4.52 ERA should go down due to weaker opponents in the senior circuit and expectations are marginally above league average performance, no better, no worse.  He and Marquis are depth guys, while Rich Hill and Mark Prior have the talent to dominate.  If the kids get hurt or regress this team isn’t going anywhere.  When an analysis includes “if Mark Prior gets hurt” then maybe its time to scale back expectations a bit, mmmkay?  By June 1 Hill is their number two.  He’s 6′5”, left-handed, and his K rate was over 8 per nine in just under 100 IP last year.

The sooner Ryan Dempster loses the closer’s job, the better.  I (and my fantasy team) can’t wait for Kerry Wood to start unleashing that high heat in the ninth.  Projecting Wood as a reliever is a waste of time, but Dempster has been a ticking time bomb, surrendering 85 walks in 167 innings over the last two years.  Wood may not be ideal for the closer’s role, but he certainly has the stuff.  The rest of the pen is a mirror of the rotation.  Bob Howry struck out 71 in 76 innings while only walking 17, and Will Ohman held lefties to a .158 average.  Neal Cotts fell apart against righties last year, allowing a .579 slugging in 121 at bats versus .209 in 110 at bats in 2005.  Left-hander Scott Eyre had a reverse split, although he wasn’t particularly good against anybody last year.  If Cotts and Eyre return to form, this pen goes from a liability to a strength.

Sweet Lou has his work cut out for him.  A power-laden lineup that won’t get on base matched with a solid but risky rotation and a talented bullpen with ambiguous roles equal a season long headache.   Let me draw it up for you:

[(HOMERS–baserunners)+(Zambrano–Prior in the trainer’s room)]/Ryan Dempster  = ?

On the other hand, if anyone can do it, Lou can.

Projection: 93-69