Washington Nationals 2007 Preview
2006: 67-95, Last in NL East
Lineup
2B Felipe Lopez (S)
SS Christian Guzman (S)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)
RF Austin Kearns (R)
1B Dmitri Young (S)
C Brian Schneider (L)
LF Ryan Church (L)
CF Alex Escobar (R)
Rotation
RHP John Patterson
RHP Jerome Williams
RHP Shawn Hill
LHP Matt Chico
RHP Jason Simontacchi
Closer
Chad Cordero
What a f*cking mess. The temptation to put “a bunch of bums” after John Patterson in the rotation was nearly too great to resist, and it would do as much to describe the drivel assembled here as their given names. The lineup is mildly terrible at best, Zimmerman is a good player but on any other team he’d be part of the supporting cast. Jim Bowden is like the studio exec that saw Mark Wahlberg in The Departed and decided that he could reprise his role as leader of the the funky bunch in “Shooter.” Well, he can’t carry a movie any better than Kearns and Zim will carry this offense.
If an “ace” is defined as the most talented pitcher on a team, Patterson qualifies. However, many believe that an ace must measure up to the elite of rotations across the league, if you’re of that school of thought Patterson is probably closer to Gil Meche than Brandon Webb. The strategy for filling out the rotation went something like this:
- Collect inexperienced kids
- Find a few journeymen with their tank just above empty
- Audition everyone in spring training before hitters have their timing
- Make a decision based on bad information
- See who sticks in the bigs
- Repeat
So the winners are Hill, Chico, and Williams. Simontacchi might miss some time with a strained groin, opening up the last spot for the struggling Tim Redding (16 H, 11 ER, 8.2 IP). Williams has the most experience, he started 17 games in 2005 with some success. While talented, he’s had as much trouble staying healthy as I have paying my Upper East Side rent. Hill has 9 career starts and Chico has never thrown a pitch in the bigs, so this rotation could be completely different two weeks into the season. They should shatter the record of 37 pitchers used by the 2002 Padres. I’ll put a sawbuck on the over, you game?
It looks like Nick Johnson might not play this season, creating a giant hole at first base. Don’t expect much from the 2007 version of Dmitri Young. How the mighty have fallen. It seems like just yesterday Dmitri was whimsically whacking some poor college kid in a bratwurst suit with a bat during the 5K sausage race in Milwaukee, today the former All-Star (albeit he was a Ken Harvey-esque selection) has dried out since his domestic violence charge last year. Apparently Dmitri had a little too much to drink and took out his frustration on his girlfriend. Its a good thing there are franchises like this to sponsor Dmitri Young during his rehabilitation, the Nats are like baseball’s halfway house. With all the uncertainty at first, someone like Larry Broadway might see significant time. He sounds like a cool guy and I bet he looks really boss in a leather jacket, but he’s never cashed in on his potential as a player. He’s in the right place at the right time, this team doesn’t care about his 116/45 K/BB ratio in AAA. For even more first base “depth,” Travis Lee has reappeared in Washington. When your veteran mentor couldn’t hang on the Devil Rays, you might start thinking about a new strategy for bench players. Hey, maybe Manny Acta can squeeze in some at bats for Robert Fick or Tony Batista! It isn’t called depth when none of the options are any good.
Roster flexibility is a product of foresight and usually makes a GM’s job easier. If there’s a little breathing room for a useful Rule 5 pickup thats always a nice boost to a farm system. However, there should never be enough room for TWO Rule 5 picks Jesus Flores will backup at catcher and Levale Speigner is in the mix for the starting rotation. Not even perennial Cy Young candidate Johan Santana was a starter as a Rule 5er. Jim Bowden is a pioneer in the poor roster management department. Has any team ever carried two 5ers for the duration?
Felipe Lopez had a nice season in 2006, and there’s little pressure on him this year. He’s part of the rare breed of hitters that have the same OBP(.362) as slugging (.365), also known as the Tony Womack All-Stars. Lopez is a serviceable leadoff guy and will steal bases every chance he gets with Cristian Guzman hitting behind him. Also an atypical hitter, Guzman has struck out 567 times in his career, while only drawing 191 walks and hitting 43 home runs. Basically, he doesn’t do anything right at the plate or in the field. He cost the Nats 13 runs on defense in 2005, his last full season, and makes $4.6m. He’s the clubhouse leader (in golf-speak) for the Angel Berroa Award as the worst regular in baseball after the namesake got demoted to AAA last week. Best of luck, Cristian.
The Kearns/Lopez deal was a rare stroke of Bowden genius. The relievers he sent won’t be missed this year and this team would be nothing without the offense he got in return. From all reports Bowden has attempted to pull the wool over some more eyes when unloading Chad Cordero; he is asking for numerous top prospects or major league ready players. Cordero’s stuff is questionable, over the last three seasons his WHIP and BABIP have been highly correlated. I’m sure this is true for most pitchers, but closers are generally not reliant on defense. He won’t get many opportunities to close games for this team, Bowden would be wise to trade him for whatever he can get.
As bad as the Jason Varitek contract looks right now, his one-time heir apparent, Brian Schneider, looked far more inept at the plate last year. Schneider’s $4m salary is no deal, but is the difference in slugging (.329 vs. .400) worth $6m? The trade talks involving Schneider were probably designed to manipulate Scott Boras through the media, but after the terms of Varitek’s contract were announced it was clear this strategy was ineffective. Schneider is praised for his defense and work ethic, certainly valuable skills for a catcher, but this team needs offensive depth more than a savvy backstop.
Left and Center field will be populated by a mix of Ryan Church (best offense), Alex Escobar (best defense), and Nook Logan (fast). As you can see, incompetence is widespread on this team.
The lone bright spot in the lineup, Zimmerman had the best rookie season since someone named Pujols. If he can avoid the sophomore slump he’ll solidify his reputation as a premier third basemen. PECOTA can be somewhat conservative when projecting young players, but in this case it’s predicting he’ll double his VORP to 47.9. That seems optimistic, he’ll be lucky improve marginally on 2006.
A general rule: when a rotation is terrible, the bullpen is unlikely to be any good. Surprise! The Nationals have some decent options after Chad Cordero! 6’11” Jon Rauch turned down a spot in the rotation to continue in the pen, and Luis Ayala and Saul Rivera did a great job keeping the ball in the park in significant innings. Sinker-baller Ryan Wagner walked a batter every two innings, which miraculously only resulted in a 4.69 ERA. When pitching to contact walks are far more detrimental, but Wagner must have been adept at squeezing out of jams or benefited from favorable double play timing. The aforementioned Speigner will be the long man, and lefties Michael O’Connor and Brandon Claussen will get their feet wet in the pen after returning from injury.
Keep an eye out for RHP Collin Balester around mid season. He’s barely cracked AA, but they could develop him with the big club if (when) the sh*t hits the fan. His minor league numbers are underwhelming, but he’s been impressive this spring. “I have no fear. I will challenge anybody. I’m not afraid to fail. Failure is not a thing I’m scared of.” Excuse the dangling preposition, he sounds like he means business.
This will be the first of many rebuilding years for this franchise. They’re still playing a football facility, but by 2008 they are scheduled to open a new park. The ship won’t be righted, but by then at least a course will have been set.
By the way, the tagline for Shooter is “Yesterday was about honor. Today is about justice.” For the Nats, yesterday was about honor, but today is about beating my co-ed work softball team.
Prediction: 60-102.
Patterson is my pick for NL comeback player of the year. He throws strikes first and foremost, and he was just too nasty in ’05 to think he’s really done.
You’re right Greg. I like Patterson too, and I didn’t give him his due in this piece. The ace spiel was more a knock on the way that term is thrown around than a comparison.
wasn;t that Randall Simon not the Meat Hook?
after further research, it was Randall Simon, and more importantly it was the italian sausage, not the bratwurst. mmm I think I’ll go grab a snack.
Thanks Sparky, I’ve gotten those two confused before.