Atlanta Braves 2007 Preview
Comments (4) 2006: 79-83, 3rd in NL East
Lineup
2B Kelly Johnson (L)
SS Edgar Renteria (R)
3B Chipper Jones (S)
CF Andruw Jones (R)
C Brian McCann (L)
RF Jeff Francoeur (R)
1B Craig Wilson (R)
LF Ryan Langerhans (L)
Rotation
RHP John Smoltz
RHP Tim Hudson
LHP Chuck James
LHP Mike Hampton
RHP Kyle Davies
Closer
RHP Bob Wickman
This team has fallen far. Fifteen years of divisional dominance ended last year with a third place finish and a sub-.500 record. The most telling evidence of their plummet to obscurity was demonstrated when the staff here at Dewey’s House was drafting teams for these previews, and I got stuck with the the Braves as the last pick. Apparently the Royals and Brewers are more exciting to write about than Atlanta. Compelling intro, eh?
Here’s a quick recap of key changes. Adam LaRoche was shipped to the ‘Burg for leftie Mike Gonzalez, and Craig Wilson was added. Rookie Scott Thorman will get time at first while Wilson spells Ryan Langerhans in left. Marcus Giles was fired and youngster Kelly Johnson will compete with Martin Prado and vet Chris Woodward for the second base job. Mike Hampton will return from injury and Rafael Soriano was stolen from the Mariners for Horacio Ramirez.
The bullpen is a force to be reckoned with after the offseason additions. Bob Wickman has two guys looking over his shoulder for that closer’s job in Gonzalez and Soriano. The latter had an absurd 1.08 WHIP in 60 IP last year. Gonzalez is no slouch either with 24 saves and a 2.17 ERA. 31 BB in 54 IP sucks, but 64 Ks will hide some mistakes. It’s safe to say the Ken Ray closer experiment will not have a sequel. Oscar Villareal was the toughest and smartest vulture in the pack, with a 9-1 record in 92.1 IP. Chad Paronto was another contributor at a 1.27 WHIP and 41 Ks in 56.2 IP. Leftie Macay McBride should only face his own kind; right-handers tee off to the tune of an .835 OPS versus a miniscule .547. His K/BB split is 30/9 versus 16/23. Are you listening Bobby? Anyway, few teams have such a clear view of their bullpen at this point in the pre-season.
If only the rotation was so cut-and-dry. The question marks are large and numerous. Mike Hampton is scheduled to return from Tommy John surgery, but he hasn’t had a good year since 2000. If he’s better than league average, sign me up for TJ surgery and I’ll give it a shot next spring. Chuck James has some sexy stats, but his peripherals (1.5 HR/9, 1.94 K/BB) don’t support his ERA (3.78) and WHIP (1.24). The bottom line: he was lucky (.250 BABIP). He is intriguing, but what 25-year-old lefty isn’t? Kyle Davies’ line last year: 3-7, 8.38 ERA 1.94 WHIP. Someone must see something in this kid; I might understand the fifth spot earmarked for him if he was left-handed. He’ll be on a short leash, but the departure of Ramirez and John Thomson eliminates any semblance of depth from the starting rotation.
Leading the pack among very average starters was Tim Hudson. At 31 I expect him to improve; he is still in the peak of his career and should have learned that veteran savvy. Don’t expect vintage Hudson K rates (7-8/9 IP), but if he can prevent homers like he did in 03 (.4/9 IP) and 04 (.5/9 IP) he should be closer to his career 3.31 ERA. He’s going to have to change his game and become more of a strategic pitcher if he hopes to pitch another 6-8 years. I don’t know much about his work ethic, but reinventing himself won’t be easy.
When age will be relied on exclusively, all signs point to a collapse. John Smoltz must repeat his 2006 effort and remain healthy if the Braves hope to avoid embarrassment. They picked up the final year of his contract (an $8 million option) for 2007, and it would be nice if he decided to go out on top and ride off into the sunset. At least he didn’t pull a Schilling and bring it into the media before camp.
I’ve penciled in Kelly Johnson as the favorite for the second base job because they’ll need a lead-off hitter from this position and he has shown the best ability to get on base throughout his career. Still, this is no small feat for a rookie that missed nearly all of 2006 with an elbow-injury and hasn’t played a major league inning at second base. His defensive inexperience shouldn’t count against him; he was a shortstop coming up and was blocked by Furcal and Giles in 2005. That effort was by all accounts a success with 24 XBH, 4.12 P/PA and 40 BB in 290 ABs. Chris Woodward is the veteran backup and Martin Prado is hanging around training camp for motivation. Clearly they can’t carry four middle infielders, Prado is the odd-man out.
Edgar Renteria’s Red Sox-subsidized contract has turned into a deal. The Sox are paying Edgar at least another $4 million this year, so the current Red Sox shortstop budget is $13 million. Hey, its still about $30 million less than the Yankees are paying their shortstops. Can we agree to forget about Edgar’s existence? Great.
Regarding Andruw Jones, two words: contract year.
Andruw’s cousin Larry returned to his mid-90s form, if he can stay off the DL I expect the same. Don’t expect 40 home runs, but he’s a professional hitter. I’m not one to ride a valuable hitter because of defense, but this team would be better if Chipper could handle left field. Better evidence of the intricate mental nature of baseball I haven’t seen. Common sense would suggest he would be comfortable in the cooler corner, but that wasn’t the case.
Going into 2006 we were looking at one of the thinnest crops of elite catchers in memory. The old guard had gotten older and the new kids on the block were named Victor Martinez. Well, Brian McCann is this year’s Victor Martinez. A catcher with a .960 OPS is one of the most valuable commodities in baseball. Did I mention he’s 23? I don’t know anything about his ability to work with pitchers, but if he’s within 100 points of that OPS he’ll still be the best catcher in the National League.
Jeff Francoeur has two things going for him: power and youth. His 29 dingers and 22 years will give him another chance to develop some patience, but if he expects to turn into Vlad Guerrero he’ll be rudely awakened. A P/PA around 3.3 is okay if you still walk more than you strike out (Vlad: 61/48), but Francoeur is merely a hacker (23/132). Pitchers figured this out in 2006 and his 2007 will be worse, barring an adjustment on his part.
Left field and first base will be shared by Craig Wilson, Ryan Langerhans and Scott Thorman until one of these guys forces Bobby Cox’s hand. Wilson provides the flexibility and will move back and forth. My vote is Wilson and Thorman off the bat, I only have Langerhans in there because he’s the incumbent. “Tick…tock…tick…tock” is all Thorman can hear. He’s had two solid years in AAA and is entering his year 26 season. He has to make it happen soon.
In the end, the rotation will lose more games than the bullpen can win. The offense will miss LaRoche and I don’t see McCann repeating. They’ll be closer to 800 runs scored, and they’ll allow around 850.
Prediction: 76-86
