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By Jimmy, 4/30/2007 6:19 pm

There is a popular school of thought which suggests that 1 month of baseball is just about enough of a sample to really evaluate a team.  This notion follows a textbook principle of quantitative analysis, which states that a sample size (n) of 30 is the threshold of statistical significance.  Of course, all this is just a geek excuse for me to type something along the lines of: “Dood!  Papelbon’s splitta is nasty!”.

Anyway, here is an evaluation of the team after the first month of the 2007 season.

Positional Starters:

C Jason Varitek: B-
Only hitting .239/.325/.358, but his defense has been fine, and (I know I’m going to get my balls busted for this) he’s seemed to handle the pitching staff quite well.  Adding two new pitchers to the mix who don’t speak English, one of whom has about 7 pitches in his arsenal, cannot be an easy task for a catcher to handle, but he seems to have the situation under control.  

1B Kevin Youkilis: A-
He’s done it very quietly, but “Yoooouk” has been one of the biggest offensive contributors on the team, with an OPS of .809.  Hopefully he can keep this pace up, as he had a bit of a second-half swoon in 2006.

2B Dustin Pedroia: D+
Sure, the rookie deserves some wiggle-room in his first full year.  I like to remind myself of Trot Nixon’s full-season debut, when he was hitting something like .100 in May.  However, there’s no sugarcoating it: he’s been a very poor major league hitter thus far.
On the plus side: he does draw walks, and his defense in adequate.

SS Julio Lugo: B-
He’s been a tremendous baserunner (8 SBs without being caught).  However, his offense has been simply OK, and has defense has been sub-par.  Not bad, but not really what I would want from a guy with his paycheck.  I’m still optimistic here.

3B Mike Lowell: B+
Were it not for the astonishing errors, he’d be an “A+”, as he’s been crushing the ball (.547 slugging percentage).  Expect the defense to get better, and the offense to come down to earth.

LF Manny Ramirez: D+
He’s been showing signs of heating up lately.  Although, there is a caveat here: he’s starting to get up there in age, entering his mid-thirties.  Eventually, these slumps will be more than just slumps, and we’ll start to see a legendary Hall of Fame hitter slow down for good.  Depressing, but that’s the name of the game.

CF Coco Crisp: C-
Like Manny, started off very slowly, and has been gradually heating up.  I have to be honest here: Crisp concerns me.  Whenever I watch him at the plate, I ask myself how he managed to put up the numbers he did in Cleveland.  Prove me wrong, Kovelli. 

RF J.D. Drew: A-
Hopefully his play has been enough to prove the the media and WEEI crowd that the whole “lazy” thing was complete bullshit. Started off very hot, but has cooled down of late.  Perhaps Manny Ramirez is a vampire, and is sucking away his hitting ability?  The media should look into that.

DH David Ortiz: A
Can’t ask for much more.

The Bench: A-
The biggest story here has been Alex “The Smartest Player In The League” Cora, who has played brilliantly in his brief opportunities (26 PAs), and has begun to stir a bit of a controvery at second base.  The question is: if Alex was given regular playing time, would he outplay Pedroia over the course of the season?  Eric “The Official Dewey’s House Player of 2007″ Hinske has also made the most of his playing time, hitting .294/.409/.471 while coming off the bench, and providing a versatile substitute option for manager Terry Francona.  Doug Mirabelli has also been hitting a ton, and seems to be handling Tim Wakefield just fine.  The only disappointment here was been the much maligned Wily Mo Pena, who has looked absolutely brutal while flailing at breaking balls. 

Starting Rotation:

Curt Schilling: A-
He had his doubters, and I was probably one of them.  But, here he is at 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 23/7 K/BB, looking completely healthy and hitting his spots.  In a few months, Theo Epstein and company will have a tough decision to ponder, but if Curt continues like this, the decision will be quite easy.  The only question is, what kind of cash will Curt expect?

Josh Beckett: A
5-0, 2.48 ERA.  Throwing his curve more often, and it certainly shows in the box scores.  Was knocked around a bit by the Yankees, but composed himself quite well on baseball’s biggest stage.  Has dispatched the weaker lineups with ease.  Expect a run at the CY Young award.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: B+
Has probably pitched better than his 4.36 ERA would indicate, as he has very strong peripherals (10.36 K/9, 3.80 K/BB), and his BABIP is .315.  He’s has some hiccups of control loss, and once in a while he leaves a meatball up in the zone, but his offspeed arsenal is nothing short of filthy.

Tim Wakefield: A
A 2.59 ERA, but a losing record, due to his usual uncanny lack of run support.  Anyway, the knuckler looks as good as it’s even been.

Julian Tavarez: C
The only thing keeping him from a “D” is the fact that he’s been thrust into a role that he probably should not be in.  And, he did pitch quite well against the toughest lineup in the league on Sunday.  However, it’s not a good thing when you breathe a sigh of relief when a pitcher doesn’t get clobbered.

The Bullpen

Jonathan Papelbon: A+
If I were giving out numerical grades, he would get “100″.  Currently the best closer in baseball.

Hideki Okajima: A+
As I mentioned in my last entry, he’s been the story of the team thus far.  That split-change-screwball hybrid has the best hitters in the world completely baffled.

Brendan Donnelly: A
Only 6 innings pitched, so it’s kind of silly for me to be grading him at this point, but he’s looked impressive.

Joel Pineiro: C+
Don’t be fooled by the 2.79 ERA; Joel has been shaky thus far.  He’s has more walks than K’s, and more hits than innings pitched.  Put it this way, this entire report card would look different if he were the closer.

J.C. Romero: B-
ERA of 4.91 was inflated a bit after he “took one for the team” in an early-season loss to Texas.  When used to retire left-handed hitters, he’s been quite effective.

Mike Timlin: C+
I don’t really know what to think here.  During the end of last year, and the beginning of this one, it appeared as if Timlin was no longer cut out for the occupation of major league pitcher.  However, he still flashes decent command of the fastball and slider occasionally (specifically, in his last outings).  I guess the jury is still out on Mike in 2007, but I’d prefer to see him used in low leverage situations until we get a better read on him. 

Kyle Snyder: A-
Used as an innings eater, and he’s eaten his innings adequately.

So, where do the Red Sox stand as a team?  In first f*cking place, that’s where! 
Seriously though, the team finished April with a 16-8 record, and the great news is their Pythagorean record is also 16-8 (which would indicate that this record is not much of a fluke).  As you were probably expecting, a major strength of the team has been their starting pitching, and as you weren’t expecting, their bullpen has been phenominal.  The one cause for concern is the offense, more specifically, the bottom of the order.  If Crisp, Varitek and Pedroia continue to swim near the Mendoza Line, there will be quite a bit of pressure on the rest of the bats to produce. 

Overall, the Boston Red Sox get an A- for the month.

They’ve pleased me.  And, that’s not an easy thing to do. 

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By Jimmy, 4/29/2007 3:01 pm

Randy Moss?  Wow.  It might be time for me to jump back on the Patriots bandwagon again. 

Anyway, on to the national pastime.

Yesterday, I tried to be clever, and posted that little photoshopped milk carton, featuring Manny and his trademark blissfully ignorant shrug. 

Well, Manny sent me a nice little “F.U. for doubting me, you impatient idiot” and went 2 for 4 with a HR today.  The opposite field shot came in the 8th inning off of Yankee reliever Sean Henn, and was the third Red Sox bomb of the day.  David Ortiz and Alex Cora also went yard (Cora actually missed a 2nd HR by an inch or two, settling instead for a triple off the wall).

The Sox handed sinkerballer Chien-Ming Wang his second straight loss, and took the rubber match of the series, marking the 5th win in the last 6 games against New York.  His counterpart, Julian Tavarez, pitched surprisingly well in 5 innings, yielding only 3 hits and 3 runs (all of which came on a HR from Doug Mientkiewicz, of all people).  Other than the third inning, Tavarez had no trouble with the powerful New York lineup, and induced plenty of ground balls for the Sox infield to handle.  Perhaps Jon Lester’s welcome wagon isn’t as close to Fenway as we might think?

Jonathan Papelbon worked the final inning for his 8th save of the season, but the story of the bullpen (and perhaps the story of the 2007 thus far) is our left-handed reliever, Hideki Okajima. 

Hideki’s first month in the major leagues was a phenominal one:  12.2 innings, 17 Ks, 5 hits, 1 run, 0.71 ERA.  Of course, 12+ innings is what you might consider “a small sample”, but this guy has not had any trouble in 12 appearances since than first HR off the bat of Royals catcher John Buck on opening day. 

I’ll be touching on Okajima’s auspicious start, along with the rest of the team’s performance in the first month of the season, in an off-day feature for Tuesday morning. 

One off topic thought: the death of former Sox pitcher Josh Hancock hits a little close to home, as he was born exactly 4 days before I was.  I remember when the Sox drafted him, and it wasn’t long ago when he was considered one of the team’s best pitching prospects.  R.I.P, buddy. 

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By Jimmy, 4/28/2007 5:24 pm

Yes, it happened again. 

The Red Sox offense rolled over and played dead for yet another sub-par lefty.  This time, the benefactor of the generosity was Kei Igawa, the Japanese import for whom GM Brian Cashman paid a fortune in December, and has been getting lit up like Chernobyl by the rest of the league (7.84 ERA entering the game).

Of course, I’m not really being fair. Some credit is due to Kei Igawa, who actually did look good, especially against the left-handed hitters.  Watching J.D. Drew wave haplessly at Igawa’s slider gave me flashbacks of Trot Nixon trying to hit against Barry Zito.  Igawa did not leave many mistakes out over the plate, and he didn’t have the monstrous control issues he’s had in his other starts.

I had a very bad feeling when Jeff Karstens left the game in the first inning.  While the Pinstriped Ones had not caught a break in quite a while, they definitely got one when a line drive took Karstens out of Joe Torre’s list of options.  Let’s face it, their luck was going to turn eventually.

I have to tip my cap to the faithful fans at Yankee Stadium who gave Igawa a vibrant standing ovation as he left the mound in the 7th inning; I’m sure they’ve been behind him all the way.

Oh, I almost forgot.  I’m sure this is just a temporary thing, and I’m as patient as the next guy, but:

The pitching matchup for tomorrow’s rubber game is not a favorable one:
Julian Tavarez vs Chien-Ming Wang.

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By Jimmy, 4/27/2007 7:32 pm

Jon Lester made his first rehab start in AAA today, and pitched very well:

5 innings, 3 hits, no runs, no walks, 6 strikeouts.  84 pitches, 56 strikes.

Once he builds those pitch counts up to 100, management will have some difficult roster decisions to ponder. 

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By Jimmy,

…in between strikeouts.

In a fairly nondescript game (Josh Beckett pitched pretty well, but didn’t have those sexy sexy strikeouts that make me love him so well), Wily Mo harshly told Sam Perlozzo that perhaps…just perhaps…Chris Ray is not a five out guy.

I’m pumped my friends, as Wiley Meaux Pena is 260lbs of pure goofy muscle.

Anyway, this game shows the good and the bad of the Man That Was Once Arroyo. He hits the ball hard twice, for a line out into a double play, and then a double. The other time, he swung from his heals at a breaking ball that he couldn’t have done anything with even if he did make contact. The trying to kill everything is what makes Pena just so frustrating, but fun…he might literally make contact twice in a week, but both times the ball is crushed.

And that is what should be gleaned from this game, vis-a-vis Pena’s development. Because of his either inability or unwillingness to lay off breaking pitches out of the strike zone, he’s going to be subject to wild streaks of hotness and coldness.

As a theory, by the way, with no basis other than a hunch, I think Pena just is befuddled by balls with spin on them. He watches a lot of curves and such in the strike zone…more so than other guys that can’t lay off them down and away. I don’t know if it’s just a mental block, or if it’s an eye sight thing, but I am probably going to err on the side of Pena having serious pitch recognition problems, rather than a stubborn adherence to “make ball go smash.”

The other interesting thing is that this is the second time this year that an American League East opponent brought in a highly regarded closer to get five outs in a pressure situation, and both times, the Red Sox offense made them pay for their busting of convention. I personally think this is awesome, because I want teams to see Mariano Rivera and Chris Ray get lit up, and when their team has 1st and 3rd with one out against the Sox, I want them to leave their gun in the holster. Detroit, and Anaheim have bullpens that this wouldn’t work on (Zumaya and Shields are the best relievers in their respective pens)…but I would hate to see Joe Nathan come in early because his manager decides that he can go two innings to stop the Sox.

This weekend is decidedly less intense than last, because, while the Sox went .500 this week, the Yankees still haven’t won since last Thursday. Sox sit in first by three games over Toronto, and the Yankees are tied with Tampa, 5.5 back.
Friday: Matzusaka vs. Pettitte
Saturday: Wakefield vs. Karstens
Sunday: Tavarez vs. Wang /snicker

COMING SOON (This afternoon): My take on Phil Hughes’ first start
COMING SOON (May): Saturday Prospect reports
COMING SOON (May): Weekend Wrapup presented by Eric Hinske & Kappa Epsilon Gamma

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By Zach, 4/26/2007 8:34 am

Ah, yes, it was all part of my plan.  Yesterday, I said that “if the Red Sox fail the first time through the order they’ll need to radically change their gameplan” against Daniel Cabrera.  Of course, what I meant was they should stick with it and remain patient.  I can understand your confusion.

The seventh inning was a textbook Red Sox rally.  A heap of walks and some timely hits put this game away, but it was Schilling’s economical and effective pitching and the Orioles’ inability to work the count that won it.  I’m sure other blogs will cover that in far more detail.  Danny Cabrera was as advertised; dominant with a streak of 25-year-old.  Joey Cora went deep and played solid defense.  Angel Hernandez and Julio Lugo won’t be exchanging Christmas cards after an unpleasant incident in the third, after which Hernandez issued a few make-up calls in the Red Sox favor.  Jim Palmer on MASN (yeah, like NESN) was pissed.

Joining Palmer in the booth was Gary Thorne.   After the great Canadian exodus he was banished from the bosom of ESPN Hockey coverage and landed in the booth at the Mid Atlantic Sports Network doing play-by-play for the Orioles/Nats.  How the mighty have fallen.  Last night he did his best Jerry Trupiano impression, raising his voice at every lazy fly ball.  I was watching this game more casually than usual, if I’ve got heart palpitations tomorrow we know who to blame.

Oh, and Wily Mo Pena took a walk.  Stop the g-d presses.

Tonight:

Beckett at Loewen

Becks gets an alley-oop for league leading win number 5; Loewen has allowed an absurd 18 hits and 19 walks in 19.1 innings.  Run support shouldn’t be a problem.

A.J. Burnett at Andy Pettitte

This is was supposed to be Phil Hughes’ debut.  I wonder if they’ll throw him against Daisuke on Friday night in the Bronx.  I’m glad I’ve got my tickets already.

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By Zach, 4/24/2007 11:08 pm

I was a little red in the face after Mike Lowell’s performance against the Yankees. I have been calling for his head at every waking moment; by now my sports-challenged girlfriend can make a pretty good case for his retirement. In this young season he’s matched his error total from last year, and Tuesday he botched a crucial double play. A year ago it was clear that Lowell’s defense was better than Youkilis’ at third, now I’m not so sure. His four home runs are impossible to ignore, especially those of the three run variety against the Yankees. Dammit, I guess I’m stuck with him at least until July.

Julian Tavarez’s starts draw close parallels to his bullpen appearances, last night he threw three brilliant innings mixed with two terrible ones. This kind of inconsistency is easier to swallow when he starts, he just has to give the team a solid chance to win until Jon Lester is ready. When he was blowing leads out of the pen it was far more frustrating. In the immortal words of Trey Parker/Matt Stone via an animated Russel Crowe: “If I can’t fight cancer, I’ll fight…a guy with cancer.” I suggest we all go out and fight a guy with cancer in support of Jon Lester. Its like wearing a ribbon, but better.

The tide appeared to be turning in favor of he-who-scares-children after Lowell’s blast in the bottom of the fourth, then Tavarez trotted out the mound and started “pitching” again. Two runs later, Kyle Snyder got the last out of the inning. The top of the sixth began without incident, but with two outs the hit parade ran into Snyder like a caravan of eighteen-wheelers, with a little help from Wily Mo Pena’s two error blunder. As the sixth ended, Vernon Wells 10, Red Sox 3.

If one was forced pick out a bright spot, Wily Mo looked more comfortable at the plate. He shied away from a few breaking balls he would have lunged at last week. Consecutive starts have helped him at the plate, but highlight his spectacularly bad defense. If indie-rock bible Pitchfork Media rated WMP’s D, it would likely be in the “breaks new ground for terrible” range. I subscribe to the Moneyball outfield defense philosophy; that is, if a guy can catch and throw somewhere below league average ability, he’s acceptable. Few players are bad enough to fail this test, Wily Mo has bombed it.

After the sixth I was frustrated enough to tune in to the Yankees-Devil Rays game to monitor my fantasy team’s young core of B.J. Upton and Delmon Young. The good news: Luis Vizcaino was awful and Carl Crawford tatooed a Mike Myers frisbee for a grand slam. The bad news: Chien-Ming Wang hit 94 on the radar gun.

The Yankees pitching staff hasn’t looked this bad since 1994, my preseason first-AL-manager-fired pick is looking better every day. I regret not selecting John Gibbons, but either firing would give me great pleasure. Joe Maddon was another viable option. He seems to have his players’ respect, but his bullpen use is questionable. With a three-run lead he brought in Jae-Kuk Ryu to open the 8th last night, after a quick walk to Bobby Abreu Maddon was calling on Shawn Camp. Earlier in the game he yanked Juan Salas after two hitters. Maddon doesn’t have a lot to work with in his pen, but isn’t making it easy on those guys either. If a walk to his first batter was going to get Ryu a ticket to the showers he shouldn’t have been in there at all.

Even so, if I was forced to choose between Gibbons’ poor attitude and Maddon’s over-managing, I’d take the hipster in a heartbeat. Gibbons’ act infuriates me. What was he arguing about when he came out of the dugout on Tuesday? If he had a question about the call, wouldn’t he ask the umpire that made it? Why was he talking to the third base umpire? He realized he was being an idiot and took a left. Hey John, why don’t you prove your manhood with another brawl in the clubhouse? Check that ‘tude at the door.

Tonight: Schilling at Daniel Cabrera (BAL)

Danny Cabrera has cut down the walks and is piling up the strikeouts, but has yet to turn the corner as an elite starter. He’s right on the verge and scares me against a patient lineup. If the Red Sox fail the first time through the order they’ll need to radically change their gameplan.

A.J. Burnett at Andy Pettitte

Jeter left Tuesday’s game with after being hit by a Kazmir fastball above the knee. He’s listed as day-to-day. Burnett has given up homers in three consecutive starts.  Advantage: A-Rod.

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By Jimmy, 4/23/2007 9:32 pm

4/23/07
Toronto 7, Boston 3

Once again, the Red Sox had control-challenged Toronto pitcher Tomo Ohka on the hook.  This time, however, he managed to wriggle off and slither back into the visiting dugout with the lead, and the Sox were unable to get the big hit against the Blue Jays bullpen.  

Sox pitcher Tim Wakefield was treated to his usual evening dish: a steaming plate of anemic run support, garnished with a side order of poor defense.  After catcher Doug Mirabelli handed Toronto their first run with a wild throw in the first inning, Wakefield settled down, and proceeded to dispatch the Blue Jays with a particularly fluttery knuckleball.  However, the poor run support proved to be critical, as Toronto eventually got to Wakefield for four more runs in the sixth inning.

Shortstop Julio Lugo had a particularly rough night, going 0-5 and leaving 6 men on base, decreasing his batting average to .246.  The bullpen also did not help matters, yielding 3 runs in 3 innings, and effectively putting the game out of reach.

Some positives from tonight’s loss:

- Dustin Pedroia.  Another good night at the plate and in the field.  He’s finally bumped that batting average over the Mendoza Line, and has a very impressive K/BB ratio of 4/8.  We know he can make solid contact, and now he is finally hitting the ball hard.

- Doug Mirabelli.  He continues to hit, and actually went to the opposite field (on purpose) against the right-handed Ohka.  Perhaps the “Stud Who Hits Bombs” worked on a thing or two this offseason?

- Mike Lowell.  Made an error on a tough play, but he’s really mashing right now.  Even his foul balls are impressive.  He’s a notorious quick starter, so this isn’t really a surprise.

The glaring concern of the day:

- The back end of the bullpen: Mike Timlin and Joel Pineiro.  Both pitchers were knocked around handily by Toronto.  The team will be relying on at least one of these guys as a key right-hander out of the bullpen over the course of the year.  Right now, they both are inconsistent.  Luckily, the rest of the pen has been rather impressive, rendering this a minor concern for now.

Pitching Wednesday night: Julian Tavarez (who has apparently assumed the duty of Matsuzaka’s mentor, which, to me, is sort of like hiring OJ Simpson to mentor Reggie Bush).  Pitching for Toronto?  Roy Halladay.  Given this pitching match-up, Las Vegas will undoubtedly say the Jays sweep tomorrow night.  We’ll see how it plays out.

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By Jimmy, 4/22/2007 11:09 pm

Wow.

Before we get started, let me just divulge this little factoid about myself: when the Red Sox game is on national television (FOX or ESPN), I mute the TV and listen to music instead.  It’s not really why you would think: I don’t really have a problem with the sophomoric baseball analysis from Joe Morgan or Tim McCarver, and the like. 

The true reason is: I’m just a Red Sox homer.  I’m such a homer, I should be writing Greek tragedies.  I’m such a homer, I should wear blue pants and a white shirt, and have two little hairs on the top of my oblong head, and a 10-year-old son who I beat constantly, and an 8-year-old genius lesbian daughter, and another daughter who hasn’t spoken in 11 years, probably due to an undetected case of autism.  In other words, when the Yankees score a couple of runs in the first inning off of Daisuke Matsuzaka, I don’t want to hear Jon Miller reach orgasm in the ESPN booth, I’d rather hear the whiskey-fueled southern crooning of the Allman Brothers.  It’s just a little exercise I have, and prevents me from breaking things and attacking people around me. 

The game started off very frustratingly.  Daisuke seemed to have good stuff in the first, but Jason Giambi used his radioactive mutant powers to muscle a 2-run double in between a hapless Manny Ramirez and Wily Mo Pena.  This could be a growing problem over the course of the season, as the US Navy could probably float a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier in between these two before they got to the gap.  Even more frustrating was the fact that the Sox could not seem to do anything against AAAA Yankee starter Chase Wright (Can you get a more waspy, rich white kid name than “Chase Wright”?  This kid’s parents probably hired Steve Carlton as his personal coach for his 12^th birthday.  Little bastard.)

After Giambi concocted another RBI in his lab in the top of the 3^rd, the tides turned a bit in the bottom half of the inning, as the Red Sox made history.  The Red Sox hit 4 back-to-back HRs (Ramirez, J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell, Jason Varitek) of off Wright, only the 5^th time such a feat has happened in baseball history, and this first time in 43 years it had been done in the American League. Perhaps hearing the frantic Fenway crowd and waking up from his valerian tea-induced slumber, Joe Torre went to the bullpen and summoned Colter Bean, a side-winding right-hander who reminds me of Cla Meredith, only 150 pounds heavier.  Bean’s unorthodox motion seemed to have the Sox off balance, as the hefty reliever threw two scoreless innings.  When Torre called upon Andy Pettitte in the 6^th inning, the frustration continued.  Pettitte, a guy who is well known for following 9 of the 10 Commandments, is perhaps the pitcher who has frustrated me more than any other in baseball history.  The veteran lefty continued this trend in the 6^th, retiring the Sox on an Ortiz double-play. 

Over the course of the next few innings, the Yanks did have some hard-hit balls off of Matsuzaka, even though his stuff seemed to be sharp.  He was hitting 94-97 MPH consistently and had a biting forkball, but probably could have used better command with his breaking stuff (or whatever Will Carroll is calling those pitches these days).  All I can do is tip my cap to the well-paid New York lineup; they seemed to have a good approach at the plate against a ferocious pitcher they had not seen before.  While Daisuke did allow 6 runs, his performance was probably better than that would indicate, as he allowed 8 hits over 7 innings, striking out 6 and walking 1. 

After the Sox scored 3 runs off another Mike Lowell blast in the 7^th inning, Francona turned to his bullpen, calling upon Hideki Okajima (again).  I wasn’t sold about using Hideki in that situation, since he has been called upon quite frequently lately.  With two heavy-hitting lefties coming up, J.C. Romero, more of a pure lefty-killer, might have been a better bet.  Anyway, the screwball-tossing Okajima retired one and walked two to load the bases, upon which the bespectacled Brendan Donnelly was summoned to retire the Yanks in the 8^th, and did so with the help of an outstanding diving stab by Dustin Pedroia. 

In the 9^th, the best closer in the game (present day), Jonathan Papelbon, came in and shut down the Yankees, ending it by getting Alex Rodriguez to ground the third.  This will likely get him booed in the Bronx again, even though he is on pace to hit 100 HRs this season.

So, for the first time since 1991, the Red Sox have swept the Yankees at Fenway Park.  What can we glean from this series? It’s only one April series, but tossing aside the sample size caveat for a moment:

* The Yankees scored quite a few runs off of 3 good pitchers.  They can hit (we knew that).
* Jason Varitek, who many (myself included, admittedly) had written of before this season began, might be starting to tell us that 2006 was just an off year, and not the beginning of a career-ending spiral.
* Dustin Pedroia could be starting to exhibit some of the stroke that got him a career .300 batting average in the minor leagues, and also made some nice plays in the field (including a game-saver in the 8^th inning).
* Hideki Okajima is looking a like a complete steal.  While the world was focusing on the Dice-K contract saga, nobody seemed to notice the crafty left-handed reliever that the Sox signed shortly thereafter.  Now, after some serious face time on baseball’s biggest stage, the baseball world knows his name.

I guess what I’m trying to say is:  it was wicked cool when Dice-K hit A-Rod with a fastball in the first inning.

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By Jimmy, 4/20/2007 7:37 am

So here it is, the first installment of the annual match up of bitter American League East rivals, the Boston Red Sox and the New York Kiddie Touchers.

I’m not going to waste your time talking about the pedophilic tendencies of the Yankees, since there is baseball to be played. Just remember to keep your children safe at the park this weekend.

What I decide to do here was to actually write an honest-to-God preview of the upcoming clash, with a more in depth look at the state of the two teams than I would normally do. The particulars of the series actually bode well for the Red Sox, because it’s in Fenway, where they can bend the will of men, and the pitching match ups all favor the Red Sox. The normal caveats about all predictions and stats apply…there is no real way to prognosticate baseball…everything is just too random. Keep in mind that the things I talk about are in a theoretical realm, where what is supposed to happen is more important than what actually does happen. We’re through the looking glass here people.

Leading off
Julio Lugo – SS .280/.345/.360 5.9 rc/27
Johnny Damon – CF .300/.440/.475 10.51 rc/27

Offensively, the numbers are pretty ugly when you look up and down the lineup. The Yankees offense is running pretty well right now, and the top is eating much of the burden of slow starts by the bottom of the order. Damon is really off to a good start so far, mostly centered around his walk spike so far. The concerning thing is that he’s only making contact in 66% of his at bats, which is a crater for him. Something to keep an eye on as the year moves along.

Lugo has been a slight disappoint to me so far, as his slugging is lower than what it should be, and he should be walking a bit more. I would be interested to see him hitting sixth in front of Lowell just so he could use his speed more in front of a guy that makes a lot of contact, but doesn’t walk much.
Advantage: Yankees

Second
Kevin Youkilis – 1B .235/.316/.333 5.1 rc/27
Derek Jeter – SS .323/.391/.371 5.2 rc/27

The differences between the two men’s rates are pretty substantial, obviously. Jeter outpaces Youks by over 35 points in all three. So why have they been contributing essentially the same amount to their respective offenses? For one, Jeter is chewing up outs, basically only contributing singles. That’s not a bad thing really, with the guys behind him hitting the crap out of the ball, but the runs scoring are as much them as him…basically, he should be hitting more doubles ect.

The other big thing is that there are 3 runs (per 27 outs) difference between them with runners on. Youks right now is +1.8 in hitting with RISP and HR with men on base. Jeter is –1.2.
Advantage: Yankees

Third
David Ortiz – DH .288/.383/.673 7.9 rc/27
Bobby Abreu – RF .345/.406/.414 8.5 rc/27

We’re seeing the humanity of David Ortiz lately, as he hasn’t done anything heroic lately. For example, Scott Downs overmatched Ortiz yesterday afternoon (a fantastic game, by the way). And Ortiz just looked mortal. This is not a criticism of Papi, or anything at all. It just proves that regression to the mean affects deities as well.

Bobby Abreu is being mentioned as the forgotten man so much that I actually wonder if someone, somewhere forgot him.
Advantage: Red Sox

Cleanup
Manny Ramirez – LF .200/.310/.280 4.2 rc/27
Alex Rodriguez – 3B .351/.418/.965 15.1 rc/27

Alex Rodriguez is hitting otherworldly. He really is. But it’s so tied up in luck (the random concentration of his ‘goodness’, not the word-holder use that explains everything the numbers don’t show.) that he’s absolutely bound to get booed (figuratively) in the next month.

Most of his value this year is tied up in home runs. Half of his hits have been homers. He is hitting .351, but his on base isn’t much higher than usual (he’s a .390-.400 guy anyway).

It’s the homers. Not only that, of his 10 homers, he’s hit 9 with men on base. At the risk of sounding too nerdy, given his home run rate (10 in 57ab’s), he should have hit 5.6 homers with his 32 ab’s with men on base. He’s hit 9.

In other words, Alex Rodriguez is a bad, bad man right now, but he will stop hitting like he has eventually, and I would guess, very soon.

Manny is a couple steps behind, but I doubt there will be much difference in their overall numbers at the end of the year.
Advantage: Yankees

Fif
JD Drew – RF .341/.434/.455 9.4 rc/27
Jason Giambi – DH .255/.349/.509 6.1 rc/27

Kudos to me for the Dave Chappelle reference. I can really see why people hate JD Drew, and I don’t mean this sarcastically. Everything he does is very, very smooth, very quiet. He’s the type of player that gets labeled a ‘waste of talent’ because everything just comes naturally to him. His uniform always looks clean, he never looks like he’s running hard, he never gets too high or low. If only, ONLY, he would run harder, or dive for a ball, or send his helmet after striking out…imagine how good he would be then!

This hit me during Opening Day. Drew lead off the 7th and the Royals were up 6-1. He hits a grounder to first and Mike Sweeney lumbered over to the bag. As soon as he stepped on first, you saw Drew flying into the picture. In a five run game, our new right fielder that doesn’t care was hauling ass down the first base line on a grounder to first.

Jason Giambi’s days of hitting .300 are long gone, but if he can keep a stable walk rate and rip 35 homers a year, then he’ll likely only be overpaid by about $15 million this year.
Advantage: Red Sox

Sixth
Mike Lowell – 3B .280/.309/.460 4.4 rc/27
Jorge Posada – C .353/.393/.529 6.8 rc/27

Lowell is a freak of nature so far. Right now, he has only had five plate appearances that haven’t ended with him running to first. He’s trotted four times (one homer, three walks), and hung his head in shame once (one strikeout). He’s put the ball in play in 93% of his plate appearances (Ichiro is at 76%).

Jorge Posada is in a funny ESPN commercial with David Ortiz that ends with Wally the Green Monster just being completely horrified. The big eared bastard doesn’t even have the good sense to bend his brim.
Advantage: Red Sox

Seventh
Jason Varitek – C .189/.262/.243 1.7 rc/27
Robinson Cano – 2b .268/.323/.304 3.4 rc/27

Cano might win a batting title, but he sure won’t even be one of the most productive Yankee hitters. I’ve wasted too many words on these two to bore you with more…plus I’m missing my self-induced deadline/
Advantage: Yankees

Baseball’s Cruel Joke to Offense
Coco Crisp – CF .167/.212/.229 1.3 rc/27
Doug Mientkiewicz – 1B .147/.237/.235 0.3 rc/27

Occasionally, if I’m bored, I’ll go on to Wikipedia and feed my nerdish brain. Like, I’ll figure out how many Rhode Islands can fit in Greenland (688.7) or some other such nonsense to waste time. Much like the at bats of these two ‘hitters’. It would take 9.4 Crispkiewicz’s to equal one ARod.
Advantage: Red Sox

Ninth
Dustin Pedroia – 2B .167/.302/.167 2.4 rc/27
Melky Cabrera – LF .204/.228/.204 1.0 rc/27

They are hitting better than the men right above them but still below your more frisky pitchers. These are the wrong two markets to struggle in as rookies. Cabrera really shouldn’t be anything more than a forth outfielder for most of his career, but was thrown into the fold when Matsui went down, and Pedroia was anointed the second baseman, with the only pressures coming from Little Joey Cora. Both these guys are probably the best chances of being upgraded on in the trade market.
Advantage: Red Sox

Bench
Boston:
Alex Cora
Eric Hinske
Doug Mirabelli
Wily Mo Pena

New York:
Miguel Cairo
Will Nieves
Josh Phelps
Kevin Thompson

The Red Sox Opening Day payroll is $143million (from Cot’s. The Yankees cost $189.6million. The Sox have two guys that could start for some of the lower half teams (Pena and Hinske) and two more that should be serviceable backups this year (Cora and Mirabelli). The Yankees have nothing of the kind, though some of their fans have convinced themselves that Miguel Cairo is useful. I’ve also always liked Phelps, and I actually think he’ll break out of the platoon he’s in once Torre realizes that Minky can’t hit. See you in August, Josh!
Advantage: Red Sox (very big, but insignificant)

Pitching Matchups
Friday 7:05pm
Curt Schilling 2-1 2.84 (3.03 Dips, 4.87 runs saved/52.0 over 32 starts)
Andy Pettitte 1-0 1.59 (3.13 Dips, 6.73 runs saved/71.8 over 32 starts)

It looks like Pettitte should get the nod here, but I can’t do it. He’s allowed three earned runs, but allowed six overall. The unearned runs weren’t all his fault, obviously, but if you look at the pitchers that don’t get burned by them much…they are almost always the best pitchers in baseball. So what I’m saying is that if Pettitte his being hurt by defensive errors, he’s not doing enough to bail himself out either.
Advantage: Red Sox

Saturday 3:55pm
Josh Beckett 3-0 1.50 (2.83 Dips, 7.3 runs saved/77.9 over 32 starts)
Darrell Rasner 0-1 3.86 (5.58 Dips, 2.0 runs saved/21.5 over 32 starts)

Beckett might be the most fun pitcher to watch on the Red Sox when he’s on, which is no small praise on a staff with Schilling, Daisuke, and Papelbon. He’s been pitching like Boston expected him to when they relegated Hanley Ramirez to the swamp, but, being the jerk that I am, keep in mind that it’s still very early in the year, and his horrors started last year with the Yankees.

I don’t know much about Rasner, other than he will surely shut out the Red Sox. This is mostly based on the fact that he has been in the league less than two seasons.
Advantage: Red Sox

Note: ESPN had Rasner this morning as the probable starter, which is impressive since he pitched yesterday. It will be Jeff Karstens.

Sunday 8:05pm
Daisuke Matsuzaka 1-2 2.70 (2.37 Dips, 5.4 runs saved/58.1 over 32 starts)
Chase Wright 1-0 5.40 (6.27 Dips, -0.1 runs saved/-4.445 over 32 starts)

This is Daisuke’s first real test of American Baseball Offensive Might, after dropping games to the Mariners against a one hitter, and the Blue Jays, only struggling for about 4 hitters.

Chase Wright was my favorite character on Laguna Beach.
Advantage: Red Sox

Bullpens
Red Sox:
Brendan Donnelly
Hideki Okajima
Joel Piniero
JC Romero
Kyle Snyder
Mike Timlin
Jonathan Papelbon

Yankees:
Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Sean Henn
Mike Myers
Scott Proctor
Luis Vizcaino
Mariano Rivera

The Yankees pen has thrown 60.3 innings, and Joe Torre has raised his arm 57 times. The Sox counter that with 35.7 innings, and Terry Francona only waddling out of the dugout 42 times. Most of this is the fault of the starting pitching, with the Yankees starters not even averaging five innings a start (4.9) and the Sox going deep into ballgames (6.2). But the harbinger of things to come is that the pitchers that Torre trusts are older, and if he keeps hitting them up for innings in April and May, they might not be there in September and October.

All told, the Sox pen, thought a weakness has been either inert (way not to screw up guys!) or down right good. The Yankees pen hasn’t been awful, other than a few slips here and there, but they are being ridden hard early, and their peripherals can’t support their ERA (2.69 actual vs. 4.25 Dips).

Rivera gave up a home run to Marco Scutaro. Papelbon is striking out 18.6 guys per nine.
Advantage: Red Sox (for now)

I tend to be conservative with these things, so I’m going to say that because two of the games are sure to be in coolish, night weather (which depresses offense) and are at Fenway, the Red Sox should take two of three.

Enjoy the games.

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By Zach, 4/19/2007 6:10 am

Its hard to say “must win” in April, but the Red Sox picked up a big one last night against the Blue Jays. A loss would have all but guaranteed a sweep with Julain Tavarez scheduled to duel Roy Halladay tonight.

Determining the ace of the Sox staff is difficult, with four pitchers at the top of their game this team should be better than 8-5. Clearly, a bum named Manny Ramirez is preventing dominance. The bats threw up a crooked number against Ervin Santana with ease, then were dominated by Gustavo Chacin? After a miserable start against old friend Tomo Ohka, I was preparing the gallows. For a moment (or an eternity), it looked like Timmeh was in for an excellent losing season on a winning team.

Ohka must take extra breaths between innings, because he didn’t waste any time with such trivialities when he was on the mound. A sharp contrast to the Yankee game, where Jeremy Sowers was terrified to throw the ball. It was difficult for me to get my thoughts on the page because the innings were flying by with no regard for this lowly blogger. At the top of the sixth in the Sox game, the Yanks and Indians were limping through a rainy third inning. Did I see that correctly? Matt Stairs, Frank Thomas, and Royce Clayton were all starting? Crank up the Delorean, Marty, and take me back to 2007.

The machinations by the mediots blaming Lugo’s defense and Daisuke’s performance in Tuesday night’s game are a load of hooey. I can say “hooey” on the internet, right? The botched DP led to a run, but this offense needs to score in bunches against the likes of Chacin. That was a team loss, and defense was far from the Red Sox only failure. Blame sells newspapers, so ostensibly Lugo and Daisuke are the the scapegoats; JD, take note and tread lightly.

Continuing his campaign to lead the league in ISO-power, Doug Mirabelli has as many homers as singles. Last night he provided all the offense, a solo shot and RBI single were enough. When are we going to see the much anticipated Mirabelli-Hinske chest-bump?

It’s time for Ortiz to begin employing the bunt a little more. The Sox don’t face Joe Maddon until July, but he’ll probably move Dioner Navarro to the left of the pitching mound if Ortiz lays down five straight bunts. You know Jerry Remy would wet himself. Speaking of the the RemDawg, The “vaaaaahhhse” line has gotten a little old. How much longer until Administrative Professional’s Day? Also, does that mean I have to get the temp at my office some chocolate or something? What’s the protocol here? Administrative Professional means “secretary,” right?

In the fifth, the knuckler was diving and dancing a bit too much, three straight walks loaded the bases but a timely strike out prevented any damage. The bottom of the depleted Jays’ offense figured Wake out in the seventh, Royce Clayton was driven in by John MacDonald after lacing a double to left. Brendan Donnelly came on to work the eighth, and with a three run lead, you know who’s coming out for the ninth.

If anyone had dreams of a more progressive (Bill James style) bullpen approach, last night was proof the Red Sox aren’t as smart as you. Papelbon was shaky, missing his spots repeatedly, but the gas was there and the win was preserved. Where does Terry turn if Papelbon is needed for six outs today? He should be used in the three-run save situation only preceding an off day, or Gustavo Chacin start.

Consistency has never been a strength for Wakefield, but his three starts in 2007 are very encouraging. Thanks for everything, Tim, past, present, and for the next one to infinity years.

Tonight: Tavarez at Halladay, Fausto Carmona (CLE) at Darrell Rasner (NYY)

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By Zach, 4/18/2007 9:09 am

I thought Canada was a friendly place, what’s with the “Boston Sucks” chants, ya hosers? I’m completely indifferent to you and your high taxes.

While the next two weekends promise a healthy dose of frigid drama in the Fens and the boogey-down Bronx, the Red Sox opened a three game set against the Blue Jays last night in the warmth of the Rogers Centre Center (21st Century Spelling is Chapter 5 of the Dewey’s House style guide). This was our first real look at Dice under warm weather conditions, with some moderate wind provided by ten Toronto whiffs. The next few weeks are critical, gaining ground on the Yankees and keeping the Jays in sight is step one. Last night, weak hitting and a walk set the Sox back a game.

With lefty Gustavo “Bulldog” Chacin on the hill, JD Drew got the night off and was replaced by Wily Mo Pena. A new suit courtesy of Mr. Francona should be en route to Mr. Pena after launching a monster home run in the third. He also played his usual brand of heart-attack-inducing defense, albeit mistake free tonight. Wily gets to two strikes quicker than anybody, but Chacin helped him out in the third with two in the dirt. There were few moments of poor execution by the Bulldog, but Wily’s at bat was the phoenix of faulty gameplans. “Wily see fastball, Wily hit fastball.” When he knew what was coming, he didn’t think twice about dunking it into someone’s Molson Export. The reaction from Vernon Wells in center was awful, as in full of awe. I don’t care about Wily Mo’s defense (or Ortiz’s at first), this kid and his prodigious power need to play. The flashback to Manny’s 2001 bomb into the 500 level in Toronto was evidence of how this franchise has improved in the last five years. Then, the section was closed, today, it’s nearly full.

I’ve been lucky enough to land on a few Matsuzaka (or Matsuzaker if you’re Jerry Remy) starts during my work here at da House, none of which have disappointed in terms of story lines. Last time there was some kid named Felix, and tonight Daisuke looked a little human. After losing his ability to locate his fastball, slider, changeup, curveball, shuuto, Dragon Ball, and Vornado in the fourth, Matsuzaka had a mini-implosion. Damage was slight thanks to a pathetic Royce Clayton bases loaded at-bat (Ricciardi detractors, point taken) and a warning track blast by Jason Smith. Orsillo said “rattled” or “shaken up” approximately 235 times in half an inning, but considering how Matsuzaker came out for the fifth – he struck out the side – Don was the only one truly concerned. Nothing but a blip on the ERA-dar.

Screw Ichiro and Matsui, the matchup I’ve been looking forward to most is Matsuzaka-Frank Thomas. Well, maybe not. Last night, Daisuke brought the pain to the Big Hurt, six pitches, two strike outs.

As it turns out I wasn’t the only drunk guy watching this game. Ed Montague must have spent a little time in a local watering hole before strapping on the chest protector yesterday. He was the pinnacle of inconsistency, moving the strike zone up and down, left and right all night. I agreed with him on the call that started the avalanche during the 4th inning Wells at bat, but in the fifth he was giving both corners with renewed generosity. He does, however, get style points for his third strike call against Overbay, it was of the “I’m grabbing you by the neck of the jersey and throwing you back to the dugout” variety. Next I thought he was going to challenge Tim Duncan to a fight.

I think its time, boys. I know you’re attached to him, but he’s old and he can hardly run. He used to be so good at scooping up those grounders and making that throw across the diamond, but if he can’t do that anymore do you think he wants to stick around? Five years ago he would have knocked Aaron Hill into left field on the broken bat double play in the second, but he was worried about his artificial hip. It’s time for Old Man Lowell to move on to greener pastures in Colorado, Milwaukee, or even Seattle. Theo, get Bill Bavasi drunk and trade that old dog and his sub-.300 OBP for Richie Sexson, straight up.

In their zeal to capture another pizza-throwing incident (or get their names on PTI), the broadcast truck managed to beam a few of the ole one-finger-salutes into my living room. Is this the seventh inning, or seventh grade? I hope we can officially close the book on this charade.

The offense was percolating in the eighth, but all was for naught. A Drew lead off walk was erased on a screaming liner to third during a full-count attempted steal, followed by a Covelli single. Gibbons had lefty Scott Downs and interim closer Jason Frasor warm with Ortiz in the on-deck circle, but elected to go with Frasor. If you were going to go with the righty, why was Downs up at all? Of course, Gibbons looks smart until Downs gets worn out in August.

Once again, the Red Sox offense makes a mediocre lefty look dominant and drop to second place. Matsuzaka gets a tough loss; the bats were to blame last night.
Tonight: Wakefield at Ohka, Sowers at Igawa.

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By Jimmy, 4/17/2007 8:15 am

4/16/07
Red Sox 7, Angels 2

Amazingly, after 314 consecutive days of pouring rain in the New England area, the Red Sox and Angels were able to squeeze in the annual Patriot’s Day game after a two hour delay.  While some random footrace was transpiring outside of the waterlogged Fenway Park, the Red Sox were cementing a 2 game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, on a day that will be forever marked in history by horrific events in Blacksburg, Virginia.

While the end result of this game was favorable (a 7-2 Red Sox victory), the game itself was rather dull, an observation perhaps accentuated by the craptastic weather.  At first, things weren’t going very well for Josh Becket, as he yielded a homer to the 2^nd batter of the game (former Sox SS Orlando Cabrera), and was then issued a very premature warning after unintentionally hitting superstar Vlad Guerrero on the hands.  

However, after the top of the first, in was all Boston.  The Sox piled on 6 runs in the bottom half of the first, 2 of which came on a single from Manny Ramirez, who looks to be heating up after a slow start.  While I was worried that Beckett would be handcuffed and constrained by the idiotic warning from umpire Rick Reed in the first inning, he dispatched the hapless Angels with relative ease over the next 5 innings, never really running into any trouble after Cabrera’s monster shot in the first. 

David Ortiz, who is now officially in prime “Papi” form, added the only other Red Sox run with a 4^th inning bomb into the blacked-out bleacher seats in center field.  Reliever Hideki Okajima looked extremely sharp in relief of Beckett, striking out two in the 7^th inning, sporting a nasty back-door curveball that should be very effective against right-handed hitters over the course of the year. 

The only other eventful occurrence of the afternoon in Boston was one of comic relief: the NESN camera’s blatantly caught a fan (a grown adult male) tossing a slice of pizza at another fan 15 feet away, for no apparent reason.  Why would someone do that? Are people just assholes?  Wait, don’t answer that. 

Anyway, we all know that the baseball season is a marathon, and not a sprint. In the marathon of 2007, however, the Boston Red Sox are off to a nice little start out of the gate.  The starting rotation, the bullpen, the new acquisitions (especially Julio Lugo, who made several nice defensive plays last night to go along with 2 hits) are firing on all cylinders.  The Sox will try to keep rolling behind Daisuke Matsuzaka in Toronto tonight, a series which will determine the temporary resident of first place in the AL East. 

After the series in Toronto, the Sox return home this weekend, and will take on some team from the Bronx…       

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By Jimmy, 4/16/2007 10:28 am

During the Spring Chein-Meng Wang hurt his hamstring. Then, this weekend, Carl Pavano, and Mike Mussina were felled by forearm and hamstring injuries.

That leaves the pitching rotation to Andy Pettitte, Kei Igawa, Chase Wright, Darrell Ranser, and probably, Sean Henn until Wang is ready (presumably on April 24th). This shows the folly of building a rotation around pitchers that have durability/age issues.

Truthfully, there is no reason for Team Yankee to even feign surprise. Pavano hasn’t pitched really since 2005. Mussina is 38 years old and hasn’t been the paragon of heath the last few seasons. Wang is young, but come on…he’s still a pitcher. Jeff Karstens was supposed to be the fifth starter, and his shoulder tightened up in spring. He’s scheduled to start his rehab assignment this week.

The Yankees are reaching down to their 7th, 8th, and 9th starters in April, which is unfortunate and unlucky. But the chances of not having to reach into that well this year at all were slight. Chances are, by the trading deadline, these guys plus perhaps Humberto Sanchez and Philip Hughes would have started games anyway with the volatility in the staff when it comes to health.

The question of what the Yankees could have done is unanswerable. They could have sent Jose Tabata and Hughes to Florida to get Dontrelle Willis, or dropped the coin to get Matsuzaka, or even someone who is less talented but can be counted on for innings, like Jeff Suppan. This question revolves around information we don’t know, such as how willing the Yankees were to make noise like that, and how willing they were to try and bludgeon teams to death with their offense.

The rotation is broken. The Yankees might have a reversal of luck in the upcoming months, with Pavano, Mussina, and Wang coming back soon and being effective, while Pettitte and Igawa both stay healthy. The chances of that happening are nill, and that’s not even considering performance issues, such as Mussina and Pettitte struggling last year, Pavano having a season and a half of rust on him, Igawa adjusting to the U.S. and Wang out pitching his rates.

The Yankees under Brian Cashman have a history of not sitting idly by while their team goes to shit. Some team will have a solid pitcher available, perhaps complete with a teammate with a poison pill contract that only a handfull of teams able to swallow and only the Yankees willing to. The fear might be that teams are wising up and forcing Cashman’s hand, when it comes to his prospects, especially Hughes and Tabata. The alternative might be a third place finish.

Unlike most Red Sox fans, I don’t wish ill on the Yankees. I hope they lose, but that’s only because the Red Sox success is directly tied to them losing…much like the Blue Jays losing, the Orioles losing, or Tampa losing. I look forward to Red Sox/Yankee games because of the intensity of the game…not because of some feud that started decades ago and now get driven up in a media induced furor. I don’t hate ARod.

But the Yankees rotation is the determinate of success for the team. The Yankees will hit, and the back of their bullpen will be solid, as long as Rivera doesn’t face Marco Scutaro and Bill Mueller. Actually, they will hit a lot. But much like the margin for error is very low with a team that wins 3-2, winning 10-8 is even riskier because of the potential of bullpen blow out during the year.

The Yankees are really only as good as their starter can hold other teams in check. They are off to a scary start.

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By Jimmy, 4/14/2007 7:20 am

Usually, my Saturday morning routine consists of lying in bed in a cocoon of hangover agony, praying for a meteor to land on my shithole apartment and send me into sweet, sweet oblivion.  However, Terry Francona’s bullpen usage last night was nothing short of remarkable and groundbreaking, and I felt compelled to wake up early and post about it, headache and all.

For those of you who weren’t watching, Terry Francona called upon the services of “closer” Jonathan Papelbon (the best pitcher on the team) to squelch an 8^th inning fire, with one out and runs in scoring position.  He did just that, and the score was 4-1 when Paps walked back into the dugout after the top of the 8^th.  Keep in mind, this was a “save opportunity”.

The Sox went ahead and scored 6 runs in the bottom of the 8^th, which all but confirmed that Papelbon would be able to waltz to another save, padding his total of the primary stat upon which relief pitchers are judged by mainstream baseball.  However, this was not the case.  Francona, instead, used recovering Mike Timlin in the 9^th inning to mop up the hapless Angels.  While this move might seem conventional on the surface, I have to say that I have never seen anything like it in my 20 years of watching Major League Baseball. 

For years, MLB teams have been slaves to the “save” statistic, using their best relief pitcher in any situation where the team is up by 3 runs or less, and keeping that pitcher in to finish the game.  Of course, “saves” pay the bills, arbitrators and agents alike see dollar signs with high save totals, and “established closers” have been robbing teams for years in the free-agent market.  It was refreshing to see Terry Francona use his best relief pitcher in the most crucial game situation, and remove him when he was no-longer needed, saves be damned. 

Perhaps, years down the road, we will look back on last night’s game as a groundbreaking event in baseball, ushering a new era of bullpen philosophy?  I can’t really see the Joe Torre types following suit right away, but it is an interesting concept to ponder.    

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By Jimmy, 4/13/2007 9:36 am

So, the weather in 2007 continues to be volatile and annoying, sort of like women who drive large SUVs.  Last night’s rubber match against Seattle was rained out, and will be played on May 3rd.      

While Dewey’s House will soon have a new guy givng you meat & potatoes minor league reports, I thought I’d take this opportunity to give you a quick and dirty update on a few of our minor league candidates to be “freed” at some point this season. 

Devern Hansack: RHP (AAA):  The Nicaraguan lobsterman is absolutely on fire.  After an excellent 2006 season in Portland and an extremely impressive MLB cup-of-coffee (which included a 5 inning rain shortened no-hitter), Hansack has obliterated his AAA competition in his first 2 starts.  In 10.2 innings, he has allowed 1 run on 6 hits, but has stuck out 20.  You can bet that the Boston brass will be keeping a close eye on him.

Manny Delcarmen: RHP (AAA):  No longer a secret to even the casual Red Sox fan, the reliever has become one of the 2 symbols of untapped pitching talent in the system.  Just by watching him, you can tell he has the stuff; the 95+MPH heat and the knee-buckling curve.  However, he’ll need to polish up his command to become effective at the highest level.  Manny is off to a good start in AAA: 6 innings, 10 Ks.  His walk totals should be monitored (he has 3 thus far). 

Craig Hansen: RHP (AAA):  You might have heard some fans referring to him as a “bust”, but then you have to keep in mind that many Red Sox fans are miserable bastards.  It was less than 2 seasons ago that Craig was pitching in the Big East, which is somewhere in between the New York-Penn League and North Dakota Junior High Girl’s Softball in terms of competition level.  He was rushed through the minor league system, and is only now trying to get his bearings in a stable environment.  Like Delcarmen, he has electric stuff and talent, a definite strikeout pitcher.  He just needs more command.  So far: 5 innings, 6 Ks, 7 hits, but 4 BBs.

Jacoby Ellsbury: CF (AA):  When I say “freed”, in this case, I mean promoted to AAA.  The Sox currently have David Murphy playing CF at Pawtucket, with the possible intention of showcasing him to teams looking for a 4^th OF, so Ellsbury is stuck in AA for the time being.  The speedy CF’er is generally regarded as the top offensive prospect in the system and one of the best defensive outfielders in the minors.  He really shouldn’t be at AA, and he’s off to a pretty fast start out of the gate:  9 hits in 20 at-bats, including 5 doubles, and 2 stolen bases.  We might see him in September, but not before then. 
 

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By Jimmy,

With the game rained out last night, there is pretty much nothing Sox related to talk about. So I’ll talk about something that seems to have flown under the national radar…Don Imus!

Actually, due to a stirring combination of school work, and Guitar Hero II, I had a late night last night and have nothing much to say, so I’ll test out our new table feature by giving some hitting stats for the Angels and Red Sox.

Stat Guide:
g – Games
pa – Plate Appearences
ba – Batting average
ob% – On base percentage
slug – Slugging percentage
rc/27 – Runs created per 27 outs
risp – Runs added to offense with hits while runners are in scoring position. This is based on expectation.
mob – Runs added to offence with home runs while men are on base. The is based on expectation.
con – contact rate
bb% – percentage of plate appearences that end with an unintentional walk
k% – percentage of plate appearences that end with strikeout
iso d – Isolated discipline (OB%-BA)
iso s – Isolated slugging (Slug-BA)
DP Rate – Approximate double plays per oppertunity

Comments (6)

By Zach, 4/12/2007 8:24 am

The most intriguing match-up of the young season didn’t disappoint. Unfortunately, the result did. When I signed up for this gig I knew I’d have to spout off after losses, I was just hoping there’d be more wins. With Wednesday’s game, the Sox fell to even on the season, tied with the Yankees and a game behind the Blue Jays in the East.

Jose Guillen is officially uninvited to my roller skating birthday party. He and a number of other Mariners proved to be whiny bitches again on Wednesday. When he wasn’t wetting the pants of Red Sox hitters, Felix was was huffing and puffing on the mound and pouting like a schoolboy. Johjima’s animated emotions will come back to bite him, umpires remember that stuff, especially from catchers. There would have been another incident were it not for Felix’s gem. A wag of the finger goes to Mike Hargrove for assembling a varsity squad with a J.V. attitude.

I was avoiding mentioning the ESPN commentators because I know how annoying it can be to relive a poor broadcast squad, but Hershiser’s Pedroia-Eckstein comparison was a low blow. Much like an botched relay, I find Eckstein and his schtick nauseating. It was as close as a slam dunk gets for the ESPN crew, both are far from Goliath, but David’s spastic style and Little-League-arm-strength aren’t what I’m looking for on my Red Sox.

Steve Phillips did his best. He tried numerous times to jinx ‘Lix with off the cuff comments regarding his remarkable no-hit effort. In the seventh every other word was about the Sox donut in the hit column.  He was about to start yelling “Noo-nan! NOOOO-nan!”
With every batted ball it seemed like it our boys were going to break through, but Jose Lopez turned into a wiz around second base. Raul Ibanez did his best to botch Youkilis’ liner in the seventh, to no avail. I’m really reaching here, the offensive highlights were few and far between. By the eighth I was only half-heartedly rooting for the Sox to break it up.

The Ortiz GIDP in the fourth was spirit-crushing, that inning turned out to be the only legitimate chance the Red Sox had to get into the game. While their lone hit came in the eighth, the bottom of the Sox order had as much chance against Felix as I do besting Tiger Woods in a long-drive competition. There was little doubt J.D. would be stranded.

Manny’s attempt at Guillen on the sacrifice fly was noble; the throw was off line and that could have really swung the momentum back, but don’t blame Manuel, I think he was out if Varitek held on to the ball. Twinkle Toes looked like a ballerina out there with his footwork, and as usual he got rid of the ball in a hurry. He doesn’t rush, but his positioning is sufficiently efficient. I’ve been looking for an excuse to use that phrase for the last two months. Thanks.

We learned that Matsuzaka can give his team a chance to win without his best stuff, but won’t consistently overpower for nine innings. Batters will get lucky and string together a few hits from time to time. The newer, more aerodynamic Felix Hernandez had the Red Sox in the palm of his hand and let go only for a split second. Until next time, we bow to you, King Felix the First.

Tonight: Wakefield vs. Washburn, Mike Maroth (DET) vs. Tomo Ohka (TOR), Yankees off.

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By Jimmy, 4/11/2007 8:51 am

Yesterday afternoon’s home opener was about as interesting a game as you can have, considering there was literally one half inning where the result was even a little bit in doubt. There was a little bit of everything from awesome pitching, a finely-tuned offense, some gamesmanship, and, for good measure to keep the attention of people that like 24 a little too much, a bench clearing incident.

I’m going to talk about the boring stuff first…Josh Beckett. He was just completely in control this game, doing such crazy things as holding the Mariners to two hits, and striking out Ichiro three times, which is probably the baseball equivalent of trying to kill Jack Bauer with an Air Soft gun. This will be my last reference of a television show I don’t like and don’t watch. I promise.

The Red Sox offense, which had been lulled into a weather depressed coma, sprung to life, helped out by Jeff Weaver not having the ability to throw strikes, and unleashing their bats like the proverbial hounds on the off-chance he did throw one in the strike zone. Yup, same guy that clinched the World Series for the Cardinals last year. The highlight of The Weave abuse was JD Drew leaning out over home plate and hitting an outside pitch. When he did, I turned to my girlfriend and said “Get Wall,” thinking the chances of a home run was slight. Of course I misjudged both the depth and location of the hit. It’s early in the season for me too, folks.

The run parade didn’t really stop when The Weave was relieved of his pitching duties after two innings. Jake Woods, and Brandon Morrow combined for three innings of five hit, five walk, six run ball before the Red Sox finally took their foot off the break a bit (more on that in a second). A visibly stoned Jeff Weaver commented “I could have done that.”

The last run was scored when Official Player of Dewey’s House 2007 Eric Hinske (more on this, also) doubled, moved to second when Wily Mo Pena grounded out, and scored on Mike Lowell’s sacrifice fly. When Hinske touched the plate, the score stood at 14-1.

Mike Timlin made his season debut by actually aging on the mound, and gave up two runs.

There was also some chippiness present in the form of Jose Guillen taking umbrage to Brendan Donnelly grabbing his balls after striking him out. The ball grabbing was likely a result of Donnelly taking umbrage to Guillen telling an umpire that he had pine tar on his glove last year. Also, Guillen was a teammate of Donnelly with the Angels and was hit by a pitch, and then publicly too umbrage to no Angel pitcher hitting a batter in retaliation. Donnelly took umbrage to that. Umbrage.

Anyway, Guillen yelled at Donnelly, and Donnelly became a True Red Sox by doing what guys like Boston heroes such as Derek Lowe would do…he grabbed his balls again. Benches cleared, and the situation defused without anyone throwing a sucker punch like Graig Nettles, and no one flipping his shit (I would have loved to see Dustin Pedroia being held back by JD Drew, Wily Mo Pena, and David Ortiz because Willie Bloomquist called him “Little Shit”). It’s almost too bad Guillen and Donnelly never really got in each other’s face, because Guillen is a known loose cannon, and Donnelly just look like he can bench press 700lbs.

Funny line of the exchange? Don Orsillo: “The benches are clearing and Donnelly has removed his glasses.”

Guillen was thrown out of the game, and to defuse the situation more, umpire Phil Cuzzi decided that a 1-1 fastball that hit Kenji Johjima in the ass was intentional enough to throw Donnelly out of the game. I hope Donnelly text messaged Guillen “U R PW3nD” from the clubhouse after.

Jerry Remy also tried to stir some controversy by saying how he might not have scored Hinske on the sacrifice fly. I personally thing two very distinct things about this line of thought…
1. If you are a professional team (not college, but professionals), there is no such thing as running up the score. If you don’t want a team to score that 14th run on a sacrifice fly, then get better pitching.
2. If I were a professional, I would take the embarrassment of being shown up (not by dancing or celebrating that 14th run, but by it scoring in the first place) over having the other team stop trying. I would be endlessly pissed if some team put their bench in the game and stopped trying to play at all. Take the pity elsewhere.

Finally, a housekeeping note. Every year we’ve done this site, there seems to be a Red Sox player I am draw to, and tend to root for a little bit harder than I should. This player is usually an underappreciated non-star player, and he’s always been a hitter. In 2004, it was Mark Bellhorn (we actually had a Bellhorn walk watch, combined with a Youkilis watch when he was called up). In 2005, it was the Youkilis/Roberto Petagine combination. Last season, it was Wily Mo Pena. And this year, it is Eric Hinske. I’m not sure exactly why, other than he looks like the stereotypical frat guy you can find at any college with a Greek life. It’s become a running joke that when he does everything, I say something frat-life related for comedy’s sake.

The reason I’m telling you this is that in the near future, we’re going to have seven days of content on Dewey’s House, at least for the season. We’ll have features (like how we did the best players at every position in Red Sox history), game recaps (like this one) and the like during the week. During Saturday’s we’ll have a prospect report (this will likely start in a few weeks) and then on Sunday mornings, you’ll see kind of my take on the state of baseball for the week, a look at Red Sox games from the weekend, and upcoming, a stat report for the Sox hitters/pitchers, and then MLB power rankings. The tentative title for this project is Eric Hinske and Kappa Epsilon Gamma presents Red Sox Wrap Up.

Huge game tonight. The Fenway debut of Daisuke Matsuzaka against wunderkind Felix Hernandez.

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By Jimmy, 4/10/2007 6:00 am

Normally, I would report on the game that occurs on Monday.  Since there’s an off-day (much needed, as the Sox have an excruciating stretch of baseball coming up), I’ll go ahead and spew some mental diarrhea onto my computer.  Stand back!

Mental Diarrhea

* Like a rare, exotic fungus, NESN sportscaster Tina Cervasio is growing on me.  She is the down-to-Earth “Mary Ann” to Hazel Mae’s “Ginger”.  Bellisimo, Tina, Bellisimo! 

* J.D. Drew has been swinging the bat very well, but has also made a couple of very visible gaffes on this road trip.  I have a feeling that the latter, and not the former, will be on the minds of the Calvinistic local fans and media when the team comes home tomorrow.  It’s underserved, but he will be under a constant microscope this year.  Every misplay will be magnified times 100.

* Francona had been playing with fire, relying on J.C. Romero (who should be a LOOGY) a bit too often, and he was burnt against Texas.  However, when you factor out Romero, the bullpen has had a 2.35 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP thus far.  A small yet encouraging sample.    

* The 2 new radio guys are a study in contrast.  Dave O’Brien is outstanding, possessing a great radio voice and an excellent feel for the game.  Glen Geffner, however, sounds like I did when I was on Stonehill College radio.  That’s just a quick, crude observation on my part.  I’m a patient guy, and I can tolerate Geffner….but O’Brien has been tremendous thus far.

* Did you see where Dan O’Dowd and Clint Hurdle (GM and Manager of the Colorado Rockies) were given contract extensions?  If they were in Boston, their bloated carcasses would be at the bottom of Boston Harbor, being feasted upon by crabs and eels.    Seriously, I’m not sure how Rockies fans and media have given them this much of a pass over the years.

* I know this comment will instantly make me a pariah among the internet baseball community, but I actually enjoyed some of Joe Morgan’s analysis Sunday night on ESPN.  While he did say some things that made my head spin (“Kenny Lofton makes everyone around him better”), he had some great insights on David Ortiz’ swing, among other things.  I imagine that is his strength: picking apart the individual physical intricacies of the game.  As one of the best players in history, he probably has quite a bit to share about such things.  If he would only focus on that, and stop beating the “stats are useless” drum, he might remove that bullseye from his back.

* The stadium of our new high-A ball affiliate in Lancaster, CA had already acquired the reputation as one of the premier offensive parks in professional baseball, and that reputation has been fulfilled so far this season.  In 2007, an average of 20 runs per game has been scored at that park.  This can’t be good for the development of our pitching prospects at that level, and we do have quite a few of them there.   

* Over the past few seasons, John Lackey of the Angels has very quietly established himself as a legitimate #1 starter.  After two dominating starts, he is keeping the party rolling in 2007.  Look for him to be in the Cy Young conversation a few months down the road.

* I’ve never been a Barry Bonds guy, but I have to admit, it’s quite remarkable that he’s still standing after just about everything (including the U.S. Government) has been thrown at him over the past few seasons.  He really wants that record.     

* Right now, if you have to pick one MLB relief pitcher to go to war with, from any team in baseball, you pick Jonathan Papelbon.  His secondary pitch has improved, and his fastballs are cutting through bats like NYPD bullets though innocent citizens.

* You have to love the generosity of the Minnesota Twins and their GM Terry Ryan, handing the reeling Yankees a win last night.  I know the Bombers are going through some injury difficulties and pitching problems, but did the Twinkies really need to hand them a 700-pound gift basket in the form of Sidney Ponson?  They do still have one of the most promising pitching prospects in baseball in AAA (Matt Garza).  There is absolutely no reason for the Twins to employ someone of Ponson’s ilk.

* Today is the day of the 2007 opening of Fenway Park.  Alas, I have to work, but I plan on walking over to Game On (the bar underneath the stadium) to have a beer at lunch, and take in the atmosphere.  There is nothing else like it on earth.