So here it is, the first installment of the annual match up of bitter American League East rivals, the Boston Red Sox and the New York Kiddie Touchers.

I’m not going to waste your time talking about the pedophilic tendencies of the Yankees, since there is baseball to be played. Just remember to keep your children safe at the park this weekend.

What I decide to do here was to actually write an honest-to-God preview of the upcoming clash, with a more in depth look at the state of the two teams than I would normally do. The particulars of the series actually bode well for the Red Sox, because it’s in Fenway, where they can bend the will of men, and the pitching match ups all favor the Red Sox. The normal caveats about all predictions and stats apply…there is no real way to prognosticate baseball…everything is just too random. Keep in mind that the things I talk about are in a theoretical realm, where what is supposed to happen is more important than what actually does happen. We’re through the looking glass here people.

Leading off
Julio Lugo – SS .280/.345/.360 5.9 rc/27
Johnny Damon – CF .300/.440/.475 10.51 rc/27

Offensively, the numbers are pretty ugly when you look up and down the lineup. The Yankees offense is running pretty well right now, and the top is eating much of the burden of slow starts by the bottom of the order. Damon is really off to a good start so far, mostly centered around his walk spike so far. The concerning thing is that he’s only making contact in 66% of his at bats, which is a crater for him. Something to keep an eye on as the year moves along.

Lugo has been a slight disappoint to me so far, as his slugging is lower than what it should be, and he should be walking a bit more. I would be interested to see him hitting sixth in front of Lowell just so he could use his speed more in front of a guy that makes a lot of contact, but doesn’t walk much.
Advantage: Yankees

Second
Kevin Youkilis – 1B .235/.316/.333 5.1 rc/27
Derek Jeter – SS .323/.391/.371 5.2 rc/27

The differences between the two men’s rates are pretty substantial, obviously. Jeter outpaces Youks by over 35 points in all three. So why have they been contributing essentially the same amount to their respective offenses? For one, Jeter is chewing up outs, basically only contributing singles. That’s not a bad thing really, with the guys behind him hitting the crap out of the ball, but the runs scoring are as much them as him…basically, he should be hitting more doubles ect.

The other big thing is that there are 3 runs (per 27 outs) difference between them with runners on. Youks right now is +1.8 in hitting with RISP and HR with men on base. Jeter is –1.2.
Advantage: Yankees

Third
David Ortiz – DH .288/.383/.673 7.9 rc/27
Bobby Abreu – RF .345/.406/.414 8.5 rc/27

We’re seeing the humanity of David Ortiz lately, as he hasn’t done anything heroic lately. For example, Scott Downs overmatched Ortiz yesterday afternoon (a fantastic game, by the way). And Ortiz just looked mortal. This is not a criticism of Papi, or anything at all. It just proves that regression to the mean affects deities as well.

Bobby Abreu is being mentioned as the forgotten man so much that I actually wonder if someone, somewhere forgot him.
Advantage: Red Sox

Cleanup
Manny Ramirez – LF .200/.310/.280 4.2 rc/27
Alex Rodriguez – 3B .351/.418/.965 15.1 rc/27

Alex Rodriguez is hitting otherworldly. He really is. But it’s so tied up in luck (the random concentration of his ‘goodness’, not the word-holder use that explains everything the numbers don’t show.) that he’s absolutely bound to get booed (figuratively) in the next month.

Most of his value this year is tied up in home runs. Half of his hits have been homers. He is hitting .351, but his on base isn’t much higher than usual (he’s a .390-.400 guy anyway).

It’s the homers. Not only that, of his 10 homers, he’s hit 9 with men on base. At the risk of sounding too nerdy, given his home run rate (10 in 57ab’s), he should have hit 5.6 homers with his 32 ab’s with men on base. He’s hit 9.

In other words, Alex Rodriguez is a bad, bad man right now, but he will stop hitting like he has eventually, and I would guess, very soon.

Manny is a couple steps behind, but I doubt there will be much difference in their overall numbers at the end of the year.
Advantage: Yankees

Fif
JD Drew – RF .341/.434/.455 9.4 rc/27
Jason Giambi – DH .255/.349/.509 6.1 rc/27

Kudos to me for the Dave Chappelle reference. I can really see why people hate JD Drew, and I don’t mean this sarcastically. Everything he does is very, very smooth, very quiet. He’s the type of player that gets labeled a ‘waste of talent’ because everything just comes naturally to him. His uniform always looks clean, he never looks like he’s running hard, he never gets too high or low. If only, ONLY, he would run harder, or dive for a ball, or send his helmet after striking out…imagine how good he would be then!

This hit me during Opening Day. Drew lead off the 7th and the Royals were up 6-1. He hits a grounder to first and Mike Sweeney lumbered over to the bag. As soon as he stepped on first, you saw Drew flying into the picture. In a five run game, our new right fielder that doesn’t care was hauling ass down the first base line on a grounder to first.

Jason Giambi’s days of hitting .300 are long gone, but if he can keep a stable walk rate and rip 35 homers a year, then he’ll likely only be overpaid by about $15 million this year.
Advantage: Red Sox

Sixth
Mike Lowell – 3B .280/.309/.460 4.4 rc/27
Jorge Posada – C .353/.393/.529 6.8 rc/27

Lowell is a freak of nature so far. Right now, he has only had five plate appearances that haven’t ended with him running to first. He’s trotted four times (one homer, three walks), and hung his head in shame once (one strikeout). He’s put the ball in play in 93% of his plate appearances (Ichiro is at 76%).

Jorge Posada is in a funny ESPN commercial with David Ortiz that ends with Wally the Green Monster just being completely horrified. The big eared bastard doesn’t even have the good sense to bend his brim.
Advantage: Red Sox

Seventh
Jason Varitek – C .189/.262/.243 1.7 rc/27
Robinson Cano – 2b .268/.323/.304 3.4 rc/27

Cano might win a batting title, but he sure won’t even be one of the most productive Yankee hitters. I’ve wasted too many words on these two to bore you with more…plus I’m missing my self-induced deadline/
Advantage: Yankees

Baseball’s Cruel Joke to Offense
Coco Crisp – CF .167/.212/.229 1.3 rc/27
Doug Mientkiewicz – 1B .147/.237/.235 0.3 rc/27

Occasionally, if I’m bored, I’ll go on to Wikipedia and feed my nerdish brain. Like, I’ll figure out how many Rhode Islands can fit in Greenland (688.7) or some other such nonsense to waste time. Much like the at bats of these two ‘hitters’. It would take 9.4 Crispkiewicz’s to equal one ARod.
Advantage: Red Sox

Ninth
Dustin Pedroia – 2B .167/.302/.167 2.4 rc/27
Melky Cabrera – LF .204/.228/.204 1.0 rc/27

They are hitting better than the men right above them but still below your more frisky pitchers. These are the wrong two markets to struggle in as rookies. Cabrera really shouldn’t be anything more than a forth outfielder for most of his career, but was thrown into the fold when Matsui went down, and Pedroia was anointed the second baseman, with the only pressures coming from Little Joey Cora. Both these guys are probably the best chances of being upgraded on in the trade market.
Advantage: Red Sox

Bench
Boston:
Alex Cora
Eric Hinske
Doug Mirabelli
Wily Mo Pena

New York:
Miguel Cairo
Will Nieves
Josh Phelps
Kevin Thompson

The Red Sox Opening Day payroll is $143million (from Cot’s. The Yankees cost $189.6million. The Sox have two guys that could start for some of the lower half teams (Pena and Hinske) and two more that should be serviceable backups this year (Cora and Mirabelli). The Yankees have nothing of the kind, though some of their fans have convinced themselves that Miguel Cairo is useful. I’ve also always liked Phelps, and I actually think he’ll break out of the platoon he’s in once Torre realizes that Minky can’t hit. See you in August, Josh!
Advantage: Red Sox (very big, but insignificant)

Pitching Matchups
Friday 7:05pm
Curt Schilling 2-1 2.84 (3.03 Dips, 4.87 runs saved/52.0 over 32 starts)
Andy Pettitte 1-0 1.59 (3.13 Dips, 6.73 runs saved/71.8 over 32 starts)

It looks like Pettitte should get the nod here, but I can’t do it. He’s allowed three earned runs, but allowed six overall. The unearned runs weren’t all his fault, obviously, but if you look at the pitchers that don’t get burned by them much…they are almost always the best pitchers in baseball. So what I’m saying is that if Pettitte his being hurt by defensive errors, he’s not doing enough to bail himself out either.
Advantage: Red Sox

Saturday 3:55pm
Josh Beckett 3-0 1.50 (2.83 Dips, 7.3 runs saved/77.9 over 32 starts)
Darrell Rasner 0-1 3.86 (5.58 Dips, 2.0 runs saved/21.5 over 32 starts)

Beckett might be the most fun pitcher to watch on the Red Sox when he’s on, which is no small praise on a staff with Schilling, Daisuke, and Papelbon. He’s been pitching like Boston expected him to when they relegated Hanley Ramirez to the swamp, but, being the jerk that I am, keep in mind that it’s still very early in the year, and his horrors started last year with the Yankees.

I don’t know much about Rasner, other than he will surely shut out the Red Sox. This is mostly based on the fact that he has been in the league less than two seasons.
Advantage: Red Sox

Note: ESPN had Rasner this morning as the probable starter, which is impressive since he pitched yesterday. It will be Jeff Karstens.

Sunday 8:05pm
Daisuke Matsuzaka 1-2 2.70 (2.37 Dips, 5.4 runs saved/58.1 over 32 starts)
Chase Wright 1-0 5.40 (6.27 Dips, -0.1 runs saved/-4.445 over 32 starts)

This is Daisuke’s first real test of American Baseball Offensive Might, after dropping games to the Mariners against a one hitter, and the Blue Jays, only struggling for about 4 hitters.

Chase Wright was my favorite character on Laguna Beach.
Advantage: Red Sox

Bullpens
Red Sox:
Brendan Donnelly
Hideki Okajima
Joel Piniero
JC Romero
Kyle Snyder
Mike Timlin
Jonathan Papelbon

Yankees:
Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Sean Henn
Mike Myers
Scott Proctor
Luis Vizcaino
Mariano Rivera

The Yankees pen has thrown 60.3 innings, and Joe Torre has raised his arm 57 times. The Sox counter that with 35.7 innings, and Terry Francona only waddling out of the dugout 42 times. Most of this is the fault of the starting pitching, with the Yankees starters not even averaging five innings a start (4.9) and the Sox going deep into ballgames (6.2). But the harbinger of things to come is that the pitchers that Torre trusts are older, and if he keeps hitting them up for innings in April and May, they might not be there in September and October.

All told, the Sox pen, thought a weakness has been either inert (way not to screw up guys!) or down right good. The Yankees pen hasn’t been awful, other than a few slips here and there, but they are being ridden hard early, and their peripherals can’t support their ERA (2.69 actual vs. 4.25 Dips).

Rivera gave up a home run to Marco Scutaro. Papelbon is striking out 18.6 guys per nine.
Advantage: Red Sox (for now)

I tend to be conservative with these things, so I’m going to say that because two of the games are sure to be in coolish, night weather (which depresses offense) and are at Fenway, the Red Sox should take two of three.

Enjoy the games.