There is a popular school of thought which suggests that 1 month of baseball is just about enough of a sample to really evaluate a team.  This notion follows a textbook principle of quantitative analysis, which states that a sample size (n) of 30 is the threshold of statistical significance.  Of course, all this is just a geek excuse for me to type something along the lines of: “Dood!  Papelbon’s splitta is nasty!”.

Anyway, here is an evaluation of the team after the first month of the 2007 season.

Positional Starters:

C Jason Varitek: B-
Only hitting .239/.325/.358, but his defense has been fine, and (I know I’m going to get my balls busted for this) he’s seemed to handle the pitching staff quite well.  Adding two new pitchers to the mix who don’t speak English, one of whom has about 7 pitches in his arsenal, cannot be an easy task for a catcher to handle, but he seems to have the situation under control.  

1B Kevin Youkilis: A-
He’s done it very quietly, but “Yoooouk” has been one of the biggest offensive contributors on the team, with an OPS of .809.  Hopefully he can keep this pace up, as he had a bit of a second-half swoon in 2006.

2B Dustin Pedroia: D+
Sure, the rookie deserves some wiggle-room in his first full year.  I like to remind myself of Trot Nixon’s full-season debut, when he was hitting something like .100 in May.  However, there’s no sugarcoating it: he’s been a very poor major league hitter thus far.
On the plus side: he does draw walks, and his defense in adequate.

SS Julio Lugo: B-
He’s been a tremendous baserunner (8 SBs without being caught).  However, his offense has been simply OK, and has defense has been sub-par.  Not bad, but not really what I would want from a guy with his paycheck.  I’m still optimistic here.

3B Mike Lowell: B+
Were it not for the astonishing errors, he’d be an “A+”, as he’s been crushing the ball (.547 slugging percentage).  Expect the defense to get better, and the offense to come down to earth.

LF Manny Ramirez: D+
He’s been showing signs of heating up lately.  Although, there is a caveat here: he’s starting to get up there in age, entering his mid-thirties.  Eventually, these slumps will be more than just slumps, and we’ll start to see a legendary Hall of Fame hitter slow down for good.  Depressing, but that’s the name of the game.

CF Coco Crisp: C-
Like Manny, started off very slowly, and has been gradually heating up.  I have to be honest here: Crisp concerns me.  Whenever I watch him at the plate, I ask myself how he managed to put up the numbers he did in Cleveland.  Prove me wrong, Kovelli. 

RF J.D. Drew: A-
Hopefully his play has been enough to prove the the media and WEEI crowd that the whole “lazy” thing was complete bullshit. Started off very hot, but has cooled down of late.  Perhaps Manny Ramirez is a vampire, and is sucking away his hitting ability?  The media should look into that.

DH David Ortiz: A
Can’t ask for much more.

The Bench: A-
The biggest story here has been Alex “The Smartest Player In The League” Cora, who has played brilliantly in his brief opportunities (26 PAs), and has begun to stir a bit of a controvery at second base.  The question is: if Alex was given regular playing time, would he outplay Pedroia over the course of the season?  Eric “The Official Dewey’s House Player of 2007″ Hinske has also made the most of his playing time, hitting .294/.409/.471 while coming off the bench, and providing a versatile substitute option for manager Terry Francona.  Doug Mirabelli has also been hitting a ton, and seems to be handling Tim Wakefield just fine.  The only disappointment here was been the much maligned Wily Mo Pena, who has looked absolutely brutal while flailing at breaking balls. 

Starting Rotation:

Curt Schilling: A-
He had his doubters, and I was probably one of them.  But, here he is at 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 23/7 K/BB, looking completely healthy and hitting his spots.  In a few months, Theo Epstein and company will have a tough decision to ponder, but if Curt continues like this, the decision will be quite easy.  The only question is, what kind of cash will Curt expect?

Josh Beckett: A
5-0, 2.48 ERA.  Throwing his curve more often, and it certainly shows in the box scores.  Was knocked around a bit by the Yankees, but composed himself quite well on baseball’s biggest stage.  Has dispatched the weaker lineups with ease.  Expect a run at the CY Young award.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: B+
Has probably pitched better than his 4.36 ERA would indicate, as he has very strong peripherals (10.36 K/9, 3.80 K/BB), and his BABIP is .315.  He’s has some hiccups of control loss, and once in a while he leaves a meatball up in the zone, but his offspeed arsenal is nothing short of filthy.

Tim Wakefield: A
A 2.59 ERA, but a losing record, due to his usual uncanny lack of run support.  Anyway, the knuckler looks as good as it’s even been.

Julian Tavarez: C
The only thing keeping him from a “D” is the fact that he’s been thrust into a role that he probably should not be in.  And, he did pitch quite well against the toughest lineup in the league on Sunday.  However, it’s not a good thing when you breathe a sigh of relief when a pitcher doesn’t get clobbered.

The Bullpen

Jonathan Papelbon: A+
If I were giving out numerical grades, he would get “100″.  Currently the best closer in baseball.

Hideki Okajima: A+
As I mentioned in my last entry, he’s been the story of the team thus far.  That split-change-screwball hybrid has the best hitters in the world completely baffled.

Brendan Donnelly: A
Only 6 innings pitched, so it’s kind of silly for me to be grading him at this point, but he’s looked impressive.

Joel Pineiro: C+
Don’t be fooled by the 2.79 ERA; Joel has been shaky thus far.  He’s has more walks than K’s, and more hits than innings pitched.  Put it this way, this entire report card would look different if he were the closer.

J.C. Romero: B-
ERA of 4.91 was inflated a bit after he “took one for the team” in an early-season loss to Texas.  When used to retire left-handed hitters, he’s been quite effective.

Mike Timlin: C+
I don’t really know what to think here.  During the end of last year, and the beginning of this one, it appeared as if Timlin was no longer cut out for the occupation of major league pitcher.  However, he still flashes decent command of the fastball and slider occasionally (specifically, in his last outings).  I guess the jury is still out on Mike in 2007, but I’d prefer to see him used in low leverage situations until we get a better read on him. 

Kyle Snyder: A-
Used as an innings eater, and he’s eaten his innings adequately.

So, where do the Red Sox stand as a team?  In first f*cking place, that’s where! 
Seriously though, the team finished April with a 16-8 record, and the great news is their Pythagorean record is also 16-8 (which would indicate that this record is not much of a fluke).  As you were probably expecting, a major strength of the team has been their starting pitching, and as you weren’t expecting, their bullpen has been phenominal.  The one cause for concern is the offense, more specifically, the bottom of the order.  If Crisp, Varitek and Pedroia continue to swim near the Mendoza Line, there will be quite a bit of pressure on the rest of the bats to produce. 

Overall, the Boston Red Sox get an A- for the month.

They’ve pleased me.  And, that’s not an easy thing to do.