Thoughts on Third Base
It’s almost a certainty: Mike Lowell will not be on this team next year.
Why, you ask? Because he will be severely overvalued in the free agent market, as he is having a terrific season at a relatively old age. The Red Sox brass will (hopefully) recognize this, let a mid-market team overpay for Lowell, and look for an alternative at the hot corner in 2008.
While the Red Sox are currently stuck in what Little Carmine of The Sopranos might describe as “a stagmire”, there has been some buzz in the background regarding the future of third base at Fenway. Most of this buzz stems from the recent media volley between Scott Boras and Yankees GM Brian Cashman, as it appears that the best player in baseball will hit the free agent market this winter.
If I were to venture a guess as to the annual salary Alex Rodriguez would command on the market in 2008, I’d say roughly $30 million, for roughly 6 years. I’d also estimate that there are ten teams in Major League Baseball that would be willing and able to pay this type of money for one player. In no particular order: the Yankees, the Mets, Boston, Anaheim, The Cubs, The White Sox, Philadelphia, Detroit, Los Angeles, and Baltimore. There could always be a surprise suitor, a Houston or a San Francisco could always throw their hat in the ring, but those aforementioned ten teams are baseball’s financial “heavy hitters”.
We can cross the Mets off of this list; they are fortunate enough to have young superstars at both 3B and SS. The Dodgers will likely try to bring prospect Andy LaRoche along at 3B and spend the big money in their outfield; I’ll remove them as well.
That leaves us with eight teams realistically in the running for this guy. In other words, we need to explore other opportunities here, because the odds of A-Rod playing for another team besides Boston are quite high (as much as I’d love to see him here).
Let’s take a look at some other post-Lowell alternatives at third base for 2008 and beyond:
Kevin Youkilis:
Pro: The only inside solution to the hole, and most certainly the cheapest option. Kevin’s bat plays much better at 3B than 1B, and his defense, while not on par with Lowell, is adequate. If Youkilis were moved across the diamond, the Sox could then concentrate on finding a heavy-hitting first baseman, which might be an easier task.
Con: He’s a notorious fast-starter and quick fader, a trait shared with his buddy, Mr. Lowell. We don’t really know how his defense and mobility will hold up as he ages, since he is already somewhat slow and immobile at 28. He doesn’t have the HR power the Sox would optimally like to see at this position.
Miguel Cabrera:
Pro: He’s a superstar, one of the best hitters in baseball and still improving, and is only 24 years old. He can also play LF (we’ll be needing one of those after 2008). Florida might not want to deal with his arbitration raises going forward, and could pull the trigger for the right package. He doesn’t become a free agent until 2010.
Con: He’s heavy, and getting bigger each year. Not a very good defender at 3B, most likely a corner OF long-term. Comes with a bit of a negative off-field reputation. Any deal would probably need to include Clay Buchholz and/or Jacoby Ellsbury, and Boston will have a difficult time parting with them, as they could both be key players as early as 2008.
Troy Glaus
Pro: Tremendous power and plate discipline. Injury woes appear to be a thing of the past. Can play SS in a pinch. Toronto’s farm system is fairly barren, and they may be willing to deal, depending on the performance of the team in the next month.
Con: Not a great defender. His “swing for the fences” style doesn’t always go over well at Fenway Park. Turning 31 next month; those knees may have more difficulty carrying his huge frame at 3B in the future.
These are just 3 options, and there are more to discuss (and more holes to plug). We’ll save those for another day, when the picture becomes clearer.
So if Youk moves across, is there any defense-related reason not to give Wily Mo a chance to play at first? It seems like his defensive “skills” are best suited to something at that end of the spectrum, and his bat if it ever reached its potential would certainly be a first-base type bat.
No decision involving Youkilis can be made until we see his performance this second half. I think its premature to call him Mike Lowell.
also, I think WMP got a shot at first in spring training, and it wasn’t pretty. doesn’t mean he can’t learn it in the offseason though.