10/23/2007

Game 1 Preview: Let’s Get It Started

Filed under: — Jimmy @ 8:21 am

Last night, I had 7-11 on my mind. Not the fine dining establishment (although I am guilty of enjoying their exquisite pre-packaged Italian grinders on occasion), but the numbers in general. This is the 11th time the Red Sox will be going to the World Series, and, hopefully, this will be the 7th time they will win the ultimate prize.

On paper, the Sox should be the clear favorites over Colorado in this thing. Offensively, the teams are comparable (both are fairly strong, OPS+ of 107 and 103 respectively), but Boston has a decisive edge in pitching, being the only team in the American League with an aggregate ERA under 4.00. I’m not going to go spouting the usual cliches (”pitching, pitching pitching!”…”pitching wins championships!”…”It’s all about pitching!”), but let’s just agree that it is nice to have an advantage in this department in a seven game series.

On the other hand, as we’ve seen so many times in the past, the Vegas odds are typically worthless in the MLB playoffs. In any given series the underdog can easily pull off an upset, seemingly more so than the other three major American sports. Remember, these teams did face each other in the regular season, and the Rockies outscored Boston 20-5 in those three games. So, with the caveat that predictions in these situations are as useless as silverware to an anorexic, let’s take a look at Game 1.

Josh Beckett takes the hill at Fenway Park Wednesday night, and he will be looking to add to an October resume that is rapidly becoming the stuff of legend. Beckett has the lowest WHIP (.716) in post-season history for pitchers with over 50 playoff innings. For some perspective on that, uber-closer Mariano Rivera stands in at .750.

The silver lining for Colorado: three of their sluggers have hit Beckett well over the years:

  • Matt Holliday: 6 for 14, 1.324 OPS vs Beckett
  • Todd Helton: 4 for 12, 1.167 OPS vs Beckett
  • Garret Atkins: 6 for 10, 1.667 OPS vs Beckett

That’s a combined batting average of .444 in 36 at-bats. Of course, Todd Helton did most of that when he was still the premier hitter in the NL, but those three players (Holliday especially) can still rake.

Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis, on the other hand, is more of an enigma to Boston. They did face him this year, and he threw five scoreless innings, striking out 6 (the Rockies also handed Beckett his first loss in this game). The only hitter with any significant experience against Francis is J.D. Drew, who is 3 for 10 with 3 singles. As a Sox fan, this lefty makes me more than a little nervous, as strong left-handers were a bit of an arrow in Boston’s Achilles Heel this season.

With two good pitchers going against two good offenses, anything can happen. Yes, I’m sitting on the fence here. I suppose the slight edge goes to Boston, being at home and having the proven big-game pitcher on the mound.

Ladies and gentlemen…let’s do this.

3 Responses to “Game 1 Preview: Let’s Get It Started”

  1. The RS Bat Boy Says:

    This is not the same Red Sox team that the Rockies faced way way back when. The Red Sox have hit their stride at the right time and should spank the Rocs in 4!

    and there’s no way around it!

  2. Zach Says:

    I’m wondering who DHs for the Rockies at Fenway. Taveras with Spilborghs in CF?

    oh, and you forgot “Let’s get it on!”

  3. Big John Studd Says:

    They should rename this blog “Jimmy’s House.” He’s the only person who writes.

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