As you are probably aware, the Johan Santana sweepstakes are operating at full force, with the handful of likely contenders including the Red Sox and the Yankees.

A reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that the Sox might be able to get a deal done without giving up either of their two top prospects in Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz.

“A little birdie says the Boston Red Sox have become the favorite in the Johan Santana trade sweepstakes. The Twins would receive four players for the Twins’ two-time Cy Young Award winner, including center fielder Coco Crisp, 28. Others would be shortstop prospect Jed Lowry (sic), 23; left-handed pitcher Jon Lester, 23; and right-handed pitcher Justin Masterson, 22.”

Take it for what it’s worth. I’m not sure what or who his “little birdie” might be, whether he is actually connected to the Twins or if this is just idle speculation. The guy misspelled Lowrie, so he might not be the most reliable cat on the planet. However, if there’s any truth to this, and the deal actually goes down as stated, there will be quite a few smiling faces in New England.

Mark me down as cautiously optimistic. I won’t fate my first born to be named “Theo” for another year, or until Epstein spins a package not including Ellsbury and Buchholz for Danny Haren. I’m not ready to fall in love with the 2008 Red Sox, nor will I banish them to the depths of my consciousness until February. As other teams are fighting over Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse, we can sit back and shine our World Series Trophy, or whatever else you choose to shine. Give credit where it’s due, and the rockstar GM deserves the lion’s share. A great general manager is separated from the good ones by the ability to predict future markets, without the use of a tarot cards, a cauldron, or a dart board. It appears that is what Theo has done heading into 2008.

Pitching is becoming exponentially more expensive. A.J. Burnett’s $33 million until 2010 will be a bargain if he can stay healthy: Silva and Lohse might get double that in total dollars. The Royals look prophetic for locking Gil Meche up last year. In the interest of full disclosure, I was one (of many) vilifying Dayton Moore for that one. The luxury of staying out of the FA pitching market this year will give the Sox greater flexibility to go after difference makers in the future, and maybe they’ll get to 103.

The Lowell contract is interesting. Notice, I didn’t say “terrible” or “makes me want to vomit,” I think its somewhere between “concerning” and “fine.” As the recent past has indicated, giving contracts based on emotion generally turn out badly. If Theo had done what you idiots were pining for after 2004 and kept the team together, we’d have Johnny Damon in center and Billy Mueller at third until 2013. I do miss those towering foul balls though, Kev. Lowell and Varitek’s deals have undoubtedly had a certain flavor of hometown hero in the decision making process. Not disastrous, but a disturbing trend. The best GMs are stoics.

In his age 29 and 30 seasons (2003 and 2004) Lowell put up career high OPS+ numbers of 128 and 127. Then came his much-publicized cliff dive: 77 in 2005. His first season in Boston was 104 and finally, 124 in 2007. So, next year he’ll be 34 and paid like he was 29. If he experiences any decline from career highs over the next three he’ll be grossly overpaid. I just don’t see him outperforming his 90th percentile PECOTA, as he did in 2007, for the next three years. At the same time, what matters most is the total dollars, and for Lowell they aren’t huge. For 2008, he is the best option, as Varitek was in 05.

One big, high-upside arm would complete the bullpen, and Kerry Wood looks like he’s willing to accept a one-year deal. He’s hardly pitched at all in the last three years, with 24.2 IP in 2007, his first from the bullpen. He averaged almost a K/IP and if he can stay healthy he will be a dominant reliever in a market full of former closers. Clearly a big if, but the upside outweighs the risk. I don’t want any part of Scott Linebrink, who has thrown 70+ innings for 5 consecutive seasons. His last two seasons have been fairly pedestrian (1.21, 1.32 WHIP) and heading into his 31st birthday he’s not a guy I’d target for anything but a decline. Other guys (Dotel, Gagne) are only looking at jobs as closers, and the depths of the barrel include Armando Benitez and LaTroy Hawkins. Please god, no. Overpay a bit for Wood on a one year deal and cross your fingers.

As a big proponent of the “throw a ton of shit against the wall and see what sticks” method of bullpen construction, this facet of the team concerns me. There isn’t room for error. Manny Delcarmen is capable of becoming the 8th inning crutch, but Craig Hansen or Justin Masterson had better make some strides to spread the work around. Doomsday scenario: Julian Tavarez and Javier Lopez in high leverage spots in August, with MDC/Oki on the shelf from overuse.

I’d like to see Theo bluff to the river with his centerfield cards, unless one is part of a deal for an elite arm. The market is flooded with talent in center. With Kielty and Hinske free agents, the bench is a blank slate that could be filled by whoever loses the job. One of our undervalued commodities shouldn’t be given away for a spare part, especially in a market with lots of superior talent. This team’s needs are so few, allowing Ellsbury a chance to mature at the ML level and Coco a season to produce offensively would likely increase their net value and one can be moved for a real need in 2009: starting pitching. Present value on these two is low and pitching is expensive now, so the prudent option is to wait. Finding each 350 ABs shouldn’t be too difficult.

Thanks Theo, you’ve set this team up beautifully. If it was an accident, you’re very lucky. If it was skill, you’ve turned the economic advantages of the Red Sox into an exponentially greater benefit; something your predecessors were unable to do.

• Re-singing a couple of key free agents at reasonable money, something we are not really used to here.
• Friends.
• A handful of exciting young players, including the 2007 Rookie of the Year, as well as two early candidates for 2008 Rookie of the Year.
• Family.
• Global warming. (I’m a warm weather person. 65 degrees on Thanksgiving? Tremendous. Screw football, let’s go water skiing).
• Good health.

Oh yeah…and this:

Not necessarily in that order!

Happy Thanksgiving, from Dewey’s House.

While we have been treated to some drama in the past few weeks since Ken Rosenthal’s controversial sideline report from the World Series, it appears that the third base scenario between the two heavyweights of the American League will remain as it was in 2007.

The writing is on the wall in the Bronx, where the Steinbrenners (despite their prior “hard line” claims) are about to open up the purse strings for A-Rod, to the tune of somewhere around $275,000,000.

In other news, despite rumblings that New York was about to offer Mike Lowell an obscene Damon-esque contract to play first base, Buster Olney reports in his blog that the Sox and Lowell are close to agreeing on a 3 year deal, for roughly $36 million. Considering the numbers that were bandied about this offseason, Boston must be happy with this if it is true.

Nothing is final at this point, but these seem like the prudent moves, from the perspective of all parties involved.

UPDATE: According to the Globe, Mike Lowell and the Sox have reached an agreement.  That sound you hear is Zach punching a hole in the wall.

It isn’t until you try writing for a baseball blog or publication that you begin to realize what most in the industry already know: there is no offseason.

In what would typically be the slowest time of the baseball year, America’s Pastime is once again dominating the front page of ESPN.com and the like. The main reason? Alex Rodriguez is apparently talking to the Yankees, without Scott Boras. This is pretty unprecedented, and hopefully it is the beginning of the “Constantinian Era” of the Boras Empire. It would be extremely satisfying to watch the once great tyrant of inflating baseball salaries slowly lose power until he becomes a quivering ghost of his former self.

As much as I would dislike seeing A-Rod return to New York, there is a great amount of benefit to game if the superstar infielder actually does kick his uber-agent to the curb during negotiations. Many other players might take notice, and eventually a realization could sweep across the league: dealing with this guy just isn’t worth it.

Side note: As much as I would have enjoyed seeing a) Josh Beckett win the Cy Young, and b) Terry Francona win Manager of the Year, the two Indians are deserving winners if you’re using the numbers to make your choice.

The Red Sox third base vacancy and outfield log jam have been popular topics of conversation.  I’ve had more than a few discussions around the water cooler about A-Rod versus Cabrera, Lowell’s value in two years, and handing centerfield to a rookie.  This is strange, because few have noticed the actual situation.  There is no hole to fill, the Red Sox only move this offseason is to do nothing at all.

LF Jacoby Ellsbury
2B Dustin Pedroia
DH Manny Ramirez
1B David Ortiz
3B Kevin Youkilis
RF J.D. Drew
C Jason Varitek
CF Coco Crisp
SS Julio Lugo

This lineup works pretty well and transforms the outfield defense.  The infield is downgraded, but assuming it won’t be a playable unit is jumping to a conclusion.  Figure out what you’ve got and address the need.  Worst case scenario? Cris Carter builds on his .398/.423/.581 line from the Venezuelan Winter League while a suitable ML talent is found.

The benefit is cost.  Save some cash and give Johan a blank check in a year.  Santana/Beckett/Matsuzaka/Buchholz/Lester wins 95 with a little league team behind them.

The 2007 Luis Tiant Golden Cigar (most pleasant surprise): Hideki Okajima

This year’s Golden Cigar recipient should, ironically, not be a surprise to anyone at this point. On the day that he was acquired, the majority of the local fans and media shrugged him off as “Daisuke’s friend” (I’m not sure if these guys even hung out in Japan). In reality, Okajima probably shouldn’t have been dismissed so easily, as he had a 2.14 ERA in his last season in Japan.

As good as Hideki was overall (2.22 ERA in 69 relief innings, .561 OPS allowed), those numbers were negatively skewed by end of year struggles, probably fatigue-related. If you factor out the handful of innings Okajima pitched in September, you’re looking at a total of 62.1 innings and a 1.59 ERA. Undoubtedly one of the best middle relievers in the game this season, Hideki’s presence transformed a questionable bullpen into one of the more reliable squads in the league.

His performance in Game 2 of the World Series (2.1 perfect relief innings, 4 Ks) is one of the best relief appearances I have witnessed in my lifetime.

Honorable mention: Mike Timlin, Mike Lowell, Jacoby Ellsbury

The 2007 Smokey Joe Award (best pitcher): Josh Beckett

Another easy pick, as Beckett is the favorite to win the 2007 Cy Young Award. In 2006, Beckett struggled mightily at times, but any credible baseball analyst could sense that he had the stuff and the command to pitch well, and should have predicted a 2007 rebound. Relying more on his mystifying 12-6 curveball in tandem with a 98 MPH fastball, Beckett had a career year. The increased diversification of his pitches helped keep the ball in the park, as Beckett cut his HR total in half, from 36 in 2006 to 17 in 2007.

And, of course, there is the postseason. After another successful campaign, Josh now has a 6-0 record and a 1.73 ERA in 72.2 postseason innings. This ranks among the all-time greats of October.

Honorable mention: Jonathan Papelbon

The 2007 Ted Williams Platinum Fishing Rod (best hitter): David Ortiz

When the “MVP” mantra was heard chanted so often in 2007, it was not directed at Big Papi, the usual recipient of that acclaim. Instead, Mike Lowell was the benefactor of the cheer in 2007. However, Ortiz (perhaps under the radar due to a mid-season HR drought) was easily the best hitter on the team once again.

Ortiz was among the league leaders in the following categories:

Runs Created per Game: 1st
Extra Base hits: 1st
OBP: 1st
SLG: 3rd
OPS: 2nd (.001 behind A-Rod)
Home runs: 3rd
Doubles: 2nd
Menacing Glares to Umpire: 1st

Ortiz had the highest OBP total in the AL in the last 5 years. If it weren’t for A-Rod’s outrageous season in The Bronx, Ortiz would be a prime candidate for the league MVP award.

It’s over.  The Red Sox are the World Champions.  They have reached the ultimate goal, the only acceptable outcome.  A dear friend, who has a great deal more perspective than I do, said recently “ninety-five of the emotion during most seasons is agony, the other five is relief.”  This season, more than 2004, has proven that true.  There is no burden of a long winless streak lifted, just a successful ending to another season.  The first time is always the best, but the only emotion after game four was relief.  If 2004 was like bagging the hottest chick in high school, 2007 was like making out with her tom-boy twin sister.

After basking in the afterglow for a few days, we set our sights on next year with bragging rights secured for the next eleven months.  The Red Sox are in a nice position.  The loss of Mike Lowell is meager compared to years past.  If a team can position itself to have no more than two major holes to fill each offseason, they’re a well-managed squad.  This team has one.  With the resigning of Curt Schilling, the Sox can turn their full attention to the 1B/3B void left by Lowell, who shouldn’t get a four year contract.  I’m not going to get into that though.

There are two guys available that really excite me: Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera.  I’m going to assume a few things to illustrate my point, which you might disagree with:

1. Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera will put up comparable offensive numbers for the next six years.  Not unreasonable.
2. Clay Buchholz will develop into an All-Star caliber pitcher.  Also not out of the realm of possibilities.
3. Cabrera will cost the Sox Clay Buccholz.  Likely, considering other names being thrown around: Kershaw, Gallardo, Hughes.

On the surface, the two elite third basemen have different costs.  After looking into it a little further, I’m not so sure they do.  We all understand dollars, right?  A-Rod is easy, 300 million of them.  If the Sox sign A-Rod, they’ll get to keep Clay Buchholz, who will cost approximately $30 million in arbitration ($8, $10, $12mil).  So on one side we’ve got A-Rod and Buccholz around $330 million.

Cabrera will cost Clay Buchholz and approximately $40 million in arbitration over the next three years.  After that, he’d be looking for A-Rod type money, or more likely, $25 million for six years ($150 million).  So what does the loss of Clay Buchholz cost?  Its tough to say, but if he develops into a top of the rotation starter, he would be worth $18-22 million on the free agent market.  Conservatively, a Buccholz replacement would be $15 million for 6 years, or $90 million.  On this side we’ve got Cabrera and an unnamed pitcher for $280 million.

There’s about fifty million bucks on one side, but that comes with the increasing waistline of Fat Miguel.  A-Rod at third and Youkilis at first would be a better infield combo than Youkilis at third and Cabrera in the dugout, but will Clay Buccholz develop into better than a $15 million a year pitcher?  If the answer is yes, you keep him and throw as much money as you want at A-Rod.  The A-Rod sticker shock is extreme, but the dollars associated with Cabrera aren’t far off.

According to the man himself, Curt will return to the Red Sox for one more season.

Quantitatively, the deal is outstanding for Boston.  There is $8,000,000 in guaranteed money, along with performance-based incentives, as well as (this is interesting) weight-based incentives.  I recommend taking a gander at his latest blog post, linked above.  He goes into great detail on the structure of the deal, and speaks frankly about the weight clauses.

As we look to 2008, Red Sox fans should feel pretty good about a front 3 of Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Schilling, along with Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester rounding out the bottom of the rotation.  With a bullpen which will return most of the key components from the Championship squad, the team’s pitching staff should once again be among the best in the game.

According to the Boston Globe and other sources, the Red Sox and Curt Schilling are very close to a 1 year deal. It will likely be worth about $13 million dollars.

Given the market for 1-year deals with established AL starting pitchers (see Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte last year), this is a no-brainer. Curt might be a polarizing figure, but his track record on the mound speaks for itself. He’s lost nearly 10 MPH on his fastball over the years, but the guy just knows how to get hitters out in the rough and tumble American League. At best, he’s one of the better #2 or #3 starters in the game. At the very worst, he has an off-year and sails off into the sunset (and Cooperstown, likely) while the kids get another year of experience under their belt, in preparation for 2009.

Curt could probably get more money elsewhere if he wanted to, so a tip of the cap goes his way for agreeing to a bit of a hometown discount.

While we’re still high on the euphoria that is the 2007 Championship afterglow, let’s hand out some hardware to the guys who made it happen. Some of these awards will be slam dunks, but couple actually take some deliberation.

The 2007 Web Gemologist Award (best defensive player): Coco Crisp

It was an odd season for one of my personal favorite Red Sox players. At the plate, Coco was streaky, and disappointing overall. He held his regular CF job throughout the entire season up until the World Series, when he was decisively benched in favor of Jacoby Ellsbury while in the midst of a slump. However, his defense in center field was nothing short of phenomenal. Some outfielders make themselves look better than they really are by making diving catches on routine plays (see Edmonds, Jim), and some guys are underrated because they cover vast ground without the flashy leather (Melky Cabrera in NY is a decent example of this). Coco Crisp in 2007 was the best of both worlds: a gaping vortex of leather in the architectural anomaly that is the Fenway center field, both covering range and making Sportscenter caliber plays on a regular basis.

Coco tied for 2nd in baseball in CF Zone Rating behind Grady Sizemore, and led the majors in Defensive Win Shares by an outfielder.

Honorable mention:
Kevin Youkilis - could win a Gold Glove.
Julio Lugo - poor bat overshadowed his steady play at SS.
Mike Lowell - recovered nicely from terrible April.

The 2007 Fred Lynn Trophy (best rookie): Dustin Pedroia

This one is a little more clear-cut, as Dustin should win the AL Rookie of the Year without too much opposition. The diminutive infielder started off slow after hitting only .191/.258/.303 in a late 2006 call up. After hitting .182 in April, Dustin went on an offensive tear that did not subside until the team was doused in champagne in Denver. Pedroia also played a decent defensive 2B, especially excelling in the turning of the double play (a skill that has not been displayed too often on Yawkee Way in recent years). Dustin was the 2nd toughest hitter in the league to strike out, behind Placido Polanco of Detroit.

Honorable mention:
Hideki Okajima - not enough can be said about this guy’s contribution.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - when he’s on, he’s dominant. Came up huge in October.

More to come!