Once upon a time, technically not long ago but in what seems like another universe, Jim Rice was generally regarded as a prime candidate in the Hall of Very Good; someone on the outside looking into the halls of Cooperstown. Has anything changed? Are Jim Ed’s chances any better after the proverbial shit splattered against the fan for so many modern players in George Mitchell’s report? While we don’t know how far the tentacles of amphetamines (greenies) extended into the Red Sox lineups in the 70’s and 80’s, we do know that most of the banned substances currently on the radar screen of the authorities were not very commonplace during the bulk of Rice’s career. Therefore, in the eyes of the voters, Jim Rice will be “clean”.

Several people believe that this will finally be the year that Rice gets the nod. Dan Shaughnessy thinks so. I’d say his chances are probably something like 66%. But, does he deserve it? I had always been in the camp that believed he shouldn’t quite make it (although I’d have been very happy for Rice and the Sox if he did make it, and it certainly wouldn’t have discredited the Hall any more than some of the other travesties in and out of Cooperstown). However, should the voters look at Rice in a different light, now that some heavy stones have been unturned and so many indiscretions revealed?

Baseball-Reference.com has a neat little tool that compares a player’s stats against a historical database, and comes up with the 10 most similar players based on those numbers. When you try this with Jim Rice, the 10 players BR spits out are as follows:

1) Orlando Cepeda
2) Andres Galarraga
3) Ellis Burks
4) Duke Snider
5) Joe Carter
6) Dave Parker
7) Billy Williams
8) Moises Alou
9) Willie Stargell
10) Luis Gonzalez

Now, I’m going to do something to pare this list down a bit. I’m going to remove any player who had the majority of their plate appearances after 1990. Please understand that this is not me making any kind of assumptions about these player’s conditioning techniques, but simply running an experiment by factoring out certain sample from a population that some considered “tainted”. After doing that, we are left with the following players (listed with their EqA and WARP3 as determined by Baseball Prospectus):

Cepeda .302, 89.0
Snider .291, 94.0
Parker .285, 85.0
Williams .299, 113.7
Stargell .312, 114.7

4 out of the 5 players above are in the Hall of Fame (3 of them are slam dunks); the exception is Dave Parker, who, like Rice, suffers from certain perception issues that may not have dissipated in the minds of the voters.

For comparison purposes, the EqA number is a decent all-encompassing rate stat, while WARP3 is a good compilation metric, both are explained on the Prospectus glossary. Jim Rice weighs in at .294 and 83.2, which is slightly favorable to Dave Parker’s totals (Parker had slightly higher compilations due to a longer career), and slightly less favorable to Hall of Famers Duke Snider and Orlando Cepeda. The other two guys were clearly better HoF candidates than Rice.

This is obviously a crude analysis, and I’ve seen many more performed by others, and only one common conclusion can be drawn: the guy is still borderline, and it still isn’t a clear cut Yes or No. Even when you heavily discount the numbers of the modern day slugger, Rice still shares a waiting room with the likes of Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, and our namesake, Dwight Evans. If you see or hear anyone claiming that Rice’s exclusion is “a travesty”, there is probably a Red Sox bias at work.

Whatever happens with Rice, whether he is in or out, only this is certain: a lot of folks are going to disagree. Me? I’m teetering on the fence here, but if I had a vote, would he get it? He’s borderline, his career was shortened due to injuries, and he spent his entire career on one team. I have a soft spot for candidates like this, and while I don’t place much emphasis on the steroid issue, my appreciation of his accomplishments has increased just a tad.

Yes. Just barely, he’d get my vote.

(As would Andre Dawson and Dwight Evans)

Ever since Jonathan Papelbon threw the final pitch of the 2007 season, the Red Sox community has been obsessing over trade discussions with the Minnesota Twins regarding pitcher Johan Santana.  The next few days will likely be quiet in terms of news; if a deal were to be done it would be a surprise akin to the Vietcong attack during the Tet ceasefire.

So, while we take a day or two off from the constant waiting and reading of tea leaves, let us consider this:  regardless of how this goes down, the Red Sox and their fans can’t really lose.  One of two things will happen this offseason:

1) the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox will be returning every key player from last season, and will retain one of the best minor league systems in baseball, or…

2) the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox will be adding the best pitcher in baseball to an already elite roster.

Although I prefer the latter scenario, I don’t think I’ll have any major gripes with the former.

Happy Holidays.

According to this article by Denver pundit Tracy Ringolsby, Boston and Minnesota are essentially in agreement in 3 out of the 4 players to be traded for Johan Santana.

Both sides have agreed upon the following three players: Jed Lowrie, Jon Lester, and Justin Masterson.

The one guy I would miss most out of these three is Lowrie, who would probably be a nice fit at SS for Boston right now (Julio Lugo’s quasi-albatross contract notwithstanding).   Luckily, were talking about acquiring the best pitcher of the 21st century while he is still in the prime of his career.  Fine.  I’ll pack Jed’s bags for him.

Lester is a very likable kid with an amazing story, a story I appreciate and relate to on a personal level.  That said, his ceiling is a middle of the rotation starter, if he gets his location under control.  Pack his bags.

Justin Masterson is a complete wildcard.  Nothing is guaranteed, he could become anywhere from a journeyman reliever to a durable sinkerball starter in the mold of Derek Lowe.  Luckily, with a handful of other promising arms in the system (Buchholz, Bowden, Richardson, Hagadone, ect.), the Sox can afford to deal a guy of his ilk.  Pack his bags.

Ringolsby reports that the holdup is this:  Minnesota insists on Jacoby Ellsbury as the 4th player, while Boston insists on dealing Coco Crisp instead.   I documented my thoughts on this here, and I’ll reiterate it:  The difference in value between Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury is not as high as is generally perceived.

Throw in Ellsbury and wrap this up, says this observer.

Not a creature was stirring…not even a mouse.

It has been a frustratingly quiet month for Red Sox fans and media after we were tantalized with whispers of a blockbuster Johan Santana deal during the Winter Meetings. The Twin Cities media guys, who are probably the best source for real news at this point, insist that nothing is close right now. Given the fact that former Twin starter Carlos Silva just inked a 4-year deal with Seattle, Minnesota now has a little more incentive to ponder keeping Santana in 2008.

Another wrinkle to add to this: Hank Steinbrenner, who had previously puffed up like some sort of threatened male bird when the Twins wouldn’t acknowledge his silly deadline, is performing a flip-flop of Romneyesque proportions. Should the Yankees eventually decide to add Phil Hughes to their package, Santana will probably be wearing pinstripes.

Stay tuned.

In other news, Curt Schilling is very shy. He really needs to come out of his shell and speak his mind more often.

For part 1 (Prospects #1-10) click here.

11. Aaron Bates (1B, 23) - Aaron may have been a year or two old for the hitter-friendly California League, but there is no way I can totally discount what he did there: finishing among the league leaders in nearly every offensive category. Bates had some trouble making contact in a brief late-season AA trial, but will get another shot in AA, hitting in the middle of what should be a power-packed Portland lineup.

12. Will Middlebrooks (IF, 19) - Will was one of those “double-threat” players in the draft; projecting as either a MLB pitcher or position player, and naturally is a very gifted athlete.  Nearly committed to becoming a punter for the Texas A&M football team until Theo & Co showed him the money. The right-handed power hitter will probably become a 3B in the longterm due to his size.

13. Ryan Kalish (CF, 19) - The speedy outfielder was lighting Lowell afire (.368/.471/.540 with 18 steals in 21 attempts) before breaking his hamate bone to end his 2007 campaign.   The hamate bone is the big thing keeping him out of my Top 10, as a broken wrist might be considered a red flag on a young hitter’s profile.

14. Craig Hansen (RP, 24) - A lot of people have given up on the 24 year old, but are we planning the reliever’s funeral a bit prematurely? In 51+ innings for the Pawsox, Hansen had a K/9 of 8.42 and an ERA of 3.86, a season that gradually improved over the course of the summer.  His walk totals are still high, but he seemed to regain some of the bite on his slider.  2008 will be a critical season in determining what he will become.

15. Dustin Richardson (SP, 23) - The tall left-hander has maintained a K/9 at or above 9 for his brief minor league career, including a short but very impressive stint in Lancaster last season.  Has been under the radar, probably due to the other high-profile pitchers in the system.

16. George Kottaras (C, 24) - Another guy I like more than most fans.  His prospect status has taken a bit of a dive since the Sox acquired him from San Diego for David Wells.  At first glance, his 2007 season only looks mediocre offensively, but George actually hit .309/.400/.500 on the road, compared to .177/.228/.323 at McCoy Stadium.  Typically, road stats are a solid indicator of a hitter’s true abilities, and although this wasn’t the biggest sample, the .900 OPS is closer to the numbers he put up in the San Diego system in prior years.

17. Che-Hsuan Lin (OF, 19) - Was impressive in his American debut in the GCL league before struggling in a brief promotion to Lowell.  An extremely gifted athlete; great speed and a strong arm, covers a lot of ground in the outfield.

18. Mark Wagner (C, 23) - Like Kottaras, he’s a catcher who can handle the stick fairly well.  Unlike Kottaras, he’s actually an excellent defensive backstop.  Still, he was old for his league in each of the past couple of years where he hit for impressive numbers.  AA will be a true test, as it is quite a leap from Lancaster for hitters.

19. Chih-Hsien Chiang (2B, 19) - “The Lebron of Taiwan” has held his own offensively in the first three levels of the American minor leagues.  May have been slightly overmatched at Greenville (81 Ks in 377 plate appearances), but is still young for the Sally League.  He needs work defensively, but if he can stick at 2B and improve his plate discipline, he will have a bright career ahead of him.

20. Michael Almanzar (?, 17) - The $1,500,000 bonus baby was signed as a SS, but seeing as he is 6′5″ and growing, that probably won’t be in his future.  Very raw, but extremely athletic, and might become a fearsome power hitter if he develops properly.

Some others (in no particular order):

Dan Bard: Gifted arm, but serious control issues.  15 BBs and 15 Ks in the Hawaiian Winter League, but otherwise was impressive.
Ryan Dent: 1st round infielder is very raw, lacks the ceiling of some of the other guys in the system.
Kris Johnson: I was never very high on him, he seemed like an overly “safe” draft pick.  Maybe he will prove me wrong in AA.
Jason Place: Heavily overmatched in both the Sally and Hawaiian leagues, astronomical K rates.  Still young, however.

One thing is for certain: it’s a very good thing for The Boston Red Sox and their fans that the preliminary report floating around Bloomberg yesterday morning was false. That list did seem a bit too earth-shattering to be true, but I’d be lying if I claimed that it didn’t have me sweating.

Looking over the actual report, it appears that certain teams were impacted a bit more heavily than others. However, despite the predictable whining you might hear from conspiracy theorists, and despite the unabated celebrating you may see from Red Sox fans themselves, the franchise did not exactly walk away from this fiasco unscathed.

Let’s take a look at the most severe Sox-related damage after the storm.

1) Roger Clemens
While the reports indicate that The Rocket received PEDs while playing for other teams {cough cough}, we are talking about the guy who is arguably the greatest pitcher of all time, and a guy who spent his greatest years as a member of the Boston Red Sox. This is a superstar who will be going into the Hall of Fame with a “B” on his bronze plaque. And let me be even more frank: he was greatest piece of ass I ever had, and I’ve had them all over the world!…whoops, sorry. (I watched The Godfather DVD yesterday). What I meant to say was: he was my favorite player during the majority of my childhood. While I’m not one to buy into the whole “athletes are role models” myth, I can’t help but feel a pang of sadness.

If his career progressed naturally after Dan Duquette’s ill-fated “Twilight of His Career” comments, he’d still be a Hall of Famer. For right or wrong, Roger’s perception in baseball history is going to suffer badly.

2) Mo Vaughn
A similar situation to Roger, as the report indicates that Mo received PEDs late in his career, years after his tenure with the Red Sox came to an end. Unlike Roger, Mo still has strong ties to the local community, and was known as a leader and a “class act” during his Red Sox career. Vaughn was baseball’s answer to Drew Bledsoe: a promising beacon of hope on some pretty mediocre 1990’s teams, before the franchise rose to the elite status they currently enjoy. He might be closing in on Cooperstown right now if he took better care of himself.

The bottom line is: in the eyes of the fans and casual observers, Mo was likable. To many, the people who take the steroid/HGH issue very seriously when evaluating a player’s career and character, Vaughn will no longer possess that quality, and it’s a shame.

3) Eric Gagne
The question some people might be asking themselves is this: would Red Sox management knowingly acquire someone who had a history of PED abuse? To take it a step further: would they knowingly trade away prospects for a half-season rental of someone who had this type of history?

This report isn’t the first time Gagne has been implicated; some might say that the writing was on the proverbial wall with our favorite curly-haired French Canadian reliever. If management did catch wind of his problem, it makes what turned out to be a bad trade appear to be a downright horrible one.

I will say this: the Milwaukee Brewers must be kicking themselves for not waiting a few days before drafting that $10,000,000 contract.

Major League Baseball has announced the release of George Mitchell’s report on performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) in baseball.  There will be a press conference, held by Mitchell, in Manhattan 2PM Thursday, December 13.  Bud Selig and other MLB officials will hold their own event at 4:30PM.  The report has been kept close to the vest, only recently we have learned that 50+ names will be part of the unveiling.  Commissioned by MLB and given to Selig prior to its release, this is but the latest charade in the steroid soap opera.

Let me count the ways this is a slap in the face to baseball fans and the American public.

1.  Timing:  Immediately before the holidays, when it will quickly be replaced by mistletoe, egg nog, and good cheer.
2.  Structure:  “If we let these names sneak out in random tests over the next 5 years, individual players will feel a lot of heat.  Let’s just blitzkreig the issue, 50 guys, all at once! Who-wah!”
3.  Commisioned by MLB:  Selig’s office is paying for this, so who is it ultimately going to serve?  You guessed it.

And the final, most egregious, laughable, heinous detail.

4.  Selig recieved the report earlier this week, ostensibly “to make sure it does not contain confidential information that if released would violate the collective bargaining agreement” (AP). Puh-leeze.  Assuming Mitchell was diligent and honest, Selig and his minions will hack this thing to pieces, leaving: the usual suspects, retired players, and some career bad apples.  If anyone was to severly damage baseball’s reputation, why would they make it through?

The intention was to enlist a third party, indepedent council.  Selig’s censorship eliminates all credibility.  Maybe some players will be named, but I don’t put any more stock in this than a press release by the commissioner’s office.

As the 2007 calendar year begins to wind down, there are two things I can say with absolute certainty:

• When I die and go to Hell, I will be forced to spend eternity in a Virtual Waiting Room, which reloads every thirty seconds with the false promise of “scoring tickets” to purgatory. Large insects and Justin Timberlake music will also somehow be incorporated.
• The Red Sox have a decent list of prospects (for now).

Let’s expand on point #2, by rating the Top 20 as of today. Rankings will be based on a combination of ceiling (best case projections) and proximity to the big leagues.

1. Clay Buchholz (SP, 23) - The top two guys on the list will be etched in stone on every Red Sox prospect list (shockingly, I’m not the only guy to rank Red Sox prospects on the internet). If Clay isn’t the top pitching prospect in the game, he’s certainly on the short list. The rail-thin righty sports a plus fastball and a changeup that has been compared to some of the all-time greats. Oh yeah, almost forgot: he tossed a no-no in his second MLB appearance. Right now, Clay’s stock couldn’t be any higher. Which begs the question: should he really have been “untouchable” during negotiations with Minnesota?
2. Jacoby Ellsbury (CF, 24) - Jacoby went from having an uninspiring AAA debut (a meager .380 SLG% with otherwise decent numbers) in 2007 to nearly winning the 2007 World Series MVP in the span of a month. There are still questions about his lack of power, but there can be no denying his speed and CF defense, as Ellsbury’s skill in those categories rank among the best in the major leagues. If he learns to drive the ball with any consistency, he could become a superstar.
3. Michael Bowden (SP, 21) - Among all of the changes that came along with 2007, the High-A affiliate in Lancaster, CA is probably my least favorite. The hot, dry air and elevation create a zero-gravity effect on the ballpark, making the Mike Gallegos of the world hit like Reggie Jackson. This makes for a miserable experience for virtually every pitcher who dons the Jethawks uniform…except to Michael Bowden. When placed in context, Michael’s 1.37 ERA in his short High-A stint is absolutely mind blowing. Michael had less success after his promotion to the AA Portland Sea Dogs, yet his performance there is impressive considering his age (one of the youngest pitchers in the Easter League).
4. Jed Lowrie (SS, 23) - After a disappointing 2006, Jed put himself back on the map in 2007 with impressive showings in AA and AAA. A shortstop with good plate discipline is something of a rarity in professional baseball, and thus Jed has become a hot commodity in trade talks. After seeing him hit 47 doubles in the minors last year, the idea of his bat in the 2-hole at Fenway is very intriguing. The one thing that keeps him from #3 on this list is his defense; as there are questions about his ability to remain at SS in the long term.
5. Lars Anderson (1B, 20) - The ceiling is sky-high for Lars, a young slugger built like Ted Williams (a similarity that will subside as Anderson puts on more mass over time). Still at least 3 years from the majors, Anderson shined in his first pro year after high school, hitting .292/.393/.446. Expect the power numbers to increase, especially if Anderson spends the majority of next season at Lancaster.
6. Justin Masterson (SP, 22) - Sinkerball pitchers are a bit like hedge funds: they have recently become very popular, and you never really know what to expect from them. A prime example of this is our old friend Derek Lowe, who pitched like a Cy Young caliber ace one day and John Wasdin’s alcoholic uncle the next. Masterson has displayed a bit of this variability in his young pro career, and was especially streaky in 2007. However, like Bowden, he did hold his own in the insanely tough California League. All eyes will be on him in 2008.
7. Brandon Moss (24, OF) - If only he were right-handed, he would have a decent chance of making the big league roster as a 4th OF next season. As of now, he is a pretty good candidate to be packaged in a deal at some point between now and July. A solid hitter with a decent arm, Brandon probably won’t hit enough to be considered a regular MLB corner-outfielder on most teams (especially Boston), but he is just about ready to become a role player in the bigs.
8. Nick Hagadone (SP, 21) - After the ascension of Jon Lester to the major leagues, Nick is the best left-handed pitching prospect in the system. He dominated the short season New York/Penn League in a brief stint after being drafted, which, in full disclosure, is expected of a first round pick out of college. However, the scouts liked his mid-90’s fastball and plus slider. Will likely face the ominous test of pitching in Lancaster in 2008.
9. Oscar Tejeda (SS, 17) - Currently playing SS, but that could change as the teenager bulks up in the next few years. Has shown amazing bat speed for his age, and held his own as one of the youngest players in the New York/Penn League. Still very far away from the bigs, but the future looks very bright.
10. Josh Reddick (OF, 20) - After being drafted in the 17th Round in 2006, Reddick was perhaps the most pleasant surprise in Boston entire minor league system last season. The 6-2 outfielder shocked the Class A Sally League by hitting .306/.352/.531 with strong defense. Josh will likely find himself taking swings in the thin air of Lancaster, which could result in another impressive year at the plate.

Coming soon, #11-20.

Looking at a mosaic of updated reports from the winter meetings in Nashville, it’s becoming clear that Boston and Minnesota are not very close on a deal to send Johan Santana to the Sox.

Talks may pick up at some point before Spring Training, but don’t expect anything to get done during these meetings.

The silver lining in all of this: the Sox’s voracious pursuit of Santana helped scare off the Yankees (for now), who at one point were the heavy favorites to acquire the services of the uber-pitcher.

Reporters blogging from Nashville:
Rob Bradford
Pater Gammons

Per the Boston Globe:

“The Red Sox and Twins are through negotiating for now, Both Sox GM Theo Epstein and Twins GM Bill Smith have called it a night, but momentous news may await in the morning. As Amalie Benjamin reported an hour ago, the sides have exchanged medical information on pitcher Jon Lester and Johan Santana, indicating that a deal may be in place.

There were indications that the Twins would be getting center fielder Coco Crisp, pitcher Justin Masterson and infielder Jed Lowrie in addition to Lester, the winner of the Series-clinching Game 4 and a favorite of pitching coach John Farrell. But that was not confirmed. Repeat, That has not yet been confirmed. We’re working on it.”

Globe Link

Santana for Crisp, Masterson, Lowrie and Lester would be an absolute steal.

Stay tuned.

As is the case with many things, I tend to become unhealthily attached to Red Sox minor league prospects. From Kevin Morton and Michael “Prime Time” Coleman, to Brian Rose and Carl Pavano, I’ve dreamed of each and every one of these guys eventually escaping that one horse mill town that is Pawtucket and etching themselves in Boston folklore, and eventually in bronze plaques in Cooperstown.

After watching Hanley Ramirez become one of the top players in the National League, my trepidation at the thought of trading away our top minor league talent has only increased. Which brings us to our current situation:

• The Red Sox currently have a chance to acquire Johan Santana, a move which will completely tip the scales of the major league talent pool in the American League.
• If the Red Sox don’t acquire Johan Santana, there is a good chance that he will become a Yankee, which makes him have a slightly higher intrinsic value to both AL East juggernaughts.
• Whoever does acquire Santana will need to lose at least one of their highly coveted prospects.

With this in mind, we must face the difficult question: should the team part with their promising CF Jacoby Ellsbury? If he is the key to this deal, my answer is a solemn “yes”.

My reasoning:

1) Jacoby’s current value is likely inflated after a tremendous performance in a small late-season sample. His SLG% was over .500, which certainly placed him on the radar screens of many GMs in the league, but let’s face it, he’s just not that kind of player in the long term. In a world where “buy low/sell high” is the law of the land, this would be an optimal time to trade him.

2) The difference in value between Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp might not be as high as we think. Granted, Jacoby will probably become a better player than Crisp (he might be the better player now). But, is the difference between the two players noticeable enough to keep Johan Santana from putting on a Red Sox uniform? I don’t think it is.

Is Jacoby Ellsbury’s inclusion necessary to consumating this trade and sending the best pitcher in baseball to Boston?

If so…let’s make a deal.