Trade Analysis: Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen
While the Johan Santana rumor mill continues to simmer on the back burner, let’s take a look at a deal that will impact the Red Sox in a way (since Boston plays Toronto roughly 371 times per season):
Toronto gets:
Scott Rolen, 3B, 32
Contract: $12 MM through 2010 ($36 MM total)
3 Year Averages: .273/.346/.451
St. Louis gets:
Troy Glaus, 3B, 31
Contract: $12.75 MM in 2008, $11.25 MM player option in 2009 ($24 MM total)
3 Year Averages: .256/.360/.508
Both of these players have some issues that won’t appear on the back of a baseball card. Most obviously, both men are injury prone (Rolen more so than Glaus). In addition to this, Glaus was recently implicated in baseball’s current hot topic: the steroid/HGH fiasco. It’s unclear if this will have any effect on him next season from a disciplinary standpoint, as MLB is still furiously trying to sort out the mess they have unleashed upon themselves.
Rolen is not without certain negative intangibles. On both of his prior teams, he’s had very public acrimonious disputes with management on his way out the door. If you are in the “There’s No Such Thing as a Coincidence” camp, this is a bit of a red flag. Adding him to a team managed by notorious hothead John Gibbons might be a recipe akin to the Anarchist’s Cookbook.
Winner? St. Louis, and it isn’t close.
The Cards rid themselves of a guy the entire league knew they had to trade, and get a little younger and more productive at third base with Troy Glaus, shedding payroll in the process. He’s a big downgrade with the glove, but Glaus has proven he can mash NL pitching, and still has immense power when healthy.
Scott Rolen, offensively, is a shell of his former self. After multiple shoulder surgeries, his power is virtually gone, and will need to rely on his decent plate discipline to be a factor in the Toronto lineup. He’s also guaranteed $36 million, most of which might end up as dead payroll if Rolen’s health issues continue to worsen.
On a related note: has J.P. Ricciardi made any impressive moves in his general managing career? Mr. Ricciardi, that sound you hear is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays swimming past you.
January 14th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Shea Hillenbrand for Jeremy Accardo??
January 14th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Good point. I’m skeptical of Accardo’s ability to follow last year’s performance, but given Hillenbrand’s issues with Gibbons, JP did get a nice return for him.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
I understand the point you’re making but I think Scott Rolen could come back to his old self. Remember he had a surgery in 2004(I think), and came back with a great next season(2005), when healthy i think Scott Rolen is a better player than Glaus, because Rolen could hit for average, Better glove, better speed and plate discipline. Except power Rolen is a better player overall when healthy.
January 14th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
I’ll bet anyone $100 that the Jays finish ahead of the Devil Rays - I’d still make that bet if Scott Rolen doesn’t play at all next year.
Having said that, Riccardi is making the riskier move but it had to be done. Glaus’ contract is up next year and Toronto’s line-up is already full of no-speed high power guys. Rolen at least gives them another guy that can hit for average and power.
January 15th, 2008 at 7:55 am
If Rolen does regain his power, it will be a nice deal for Toronto. However, given his age, and the fact that shoulder injuries sometimes never really go away, it is huge gamble. Put it this way: as a Red Sox fan, I am happy that they are replacing Glaus with Rolen.