First, it was the A-Rod/Boras fiasco. Then, the Girardi signing. The public Johan negotiations made it easier for the rest of us, but this is the icing on the cake.
I’m more excited for the Hank Steinbrenner era than the Red Sox Dynasty that will surely ensue. Buckle up, kids, its gonna be a helluva season.
Well, I’ve been waiting for over 10 years to work this guy’s name into a headline. I have to say, the comedic output isn’t as impressive as I thought it would be. Sorry.
Anyway, the Red Sox have agreed to terms on a minor league deal with former All-Star and Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon. Colon will be 35 this May, is coming off of a terrible season, is working his way back from injury, and is quite obese (5′11″, 250+ lbs).
Colon throws strikes, but his fastball is a shell of its former high-90’s self, resulting in 132 hits allowed in 99 innings in 2007. If by some miracle his injury rehab can restore life to his once feared arsenal, he might throw some meaningful innings in 2008. It’s an interesting deal from an insurance standpoint, but I have to think it’s a long shot to see a significant positive contribution from the right-hander.
Don’t forget to check out our divisional previews. So far, we have:
The AL West
The NL East
The NL West
The rest are on the way.
Now, on to the malnourished runt of the sports division universe, the American League West. For the past 6 years, the division crown has gone to one of the two California AL teams, without much of an argument from the outcast squads from Texas and Seattle. Will this season shape up any differently?
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 2007 record 94-68, Pythagorean 90-72
The reigning champion of the AL West made a couple of high profile moves in the offseason, but will return much of the same squad in 2008. The major additions, CF Torii Hunter and SP Jon Garland, should both be substantial improvements in their respective spots.
While Torii Hunter might be slightly overrated and overpaid (only 2 Fielding Runs Above Average for the Gold Glover in 2007; that’s Coco’s Gold Glove, dammit!), the Halos are much better served with him occupying center field, as opposed to Gary Matthews Jr., who will likely shift over to LF. The casualty in Hunter’s signing will be OBP machine Reggie Willits, who becomes one of the better 4th outfielders in the league. Vlad Guerrero, of course, will remain in right field, while Garrett Anderson and his AARP card will likely assume the bulk of the DH duties.
While the outfield and Anaheim is looking a bit long in the tooth, the infield is quite young and interesting. SS Erick Aybar was overmatched in 200+ plate appearances as a rookie in 2007, and should improve a bit as he inherits the starting job from the departed Orlando Cabrera. Chone Figgins, the fastest third basemen since the dead ball era, returns to the hot corner and lead-off spot. The right side of the Anaheim infield is populated by two guys who should provide decent offensive production: 2B Howie Kendrick and 1B Casey Kotchman.
With the trade of O-Cab, Anaheim acquires workhorse Jon Garland from Chicago. Garland is arguably the most durable pitcher in baseball, averaging 33 starts for the past 6 years and carrying a quality 106 ERA+ for his career. Garland will supplement a rotation which was 5th in the AL in ERA last season, fronted by John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Jered Weaver. 25-year-old Ervin Santana should see some improvement to go along with the refinement of his dynamic stuff. The Angels’ bullpen (the back-end in particular) will be one of the best in the game, with Francisco Rodriguez, Justin Speier, and Scot Shields all returning.
Projected Starters:
C Mike Napoli
1B Casey Kotchman
2B Howie Kendrick
3B Chone Figgins
SS Erick Aybar
LF Gary Matthews Jr
CF Torii Hunter
RF Vladimir Guerrero
DH Garret Anderson
SP1 John Lackey
SP2 Jon Garland
SP3 Jered Weaver
SP4 Ervin Santana
SP5 Joe Saunders
CL Francisco Rodriguez
Seattle Mariners - 2007 Record 88-74, Pythagorean 79-83
Seattle: it’s so much more that the nation’s epicenter of suicide and coffee. Take last year, for instance. The Mariners were the surprise team of the American League, running incredibly hot throughout the middle of the season, and nearly squeaking their way into the playoffs, despite the mid-season resignation of their manager.
If there was any question as to whether or not this team was rebuilding or “going for it” in 2008, the answer came with an exclamation point in the form of an Adam Jones/Erik Bedard trade. Bedard, who should be in store for a Cy Young caliber year in the friendly environs of the AL West and Safeco Field, will anchor an interesting rotation which also includes the newly squired control freak Carlos Silva and superstar-in-the-making “King” Felix Hernandez. Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista will provide stability and experience in the back end of the rotation.
The main issue here is the offense; it was just pedestrian last season, and they probably take a step back after losing the volatile (but productive) Jose Guillen. RF will likely be occupied by rookie Wladimir Balantien. While his name evokes images of some sort of tyrannical 15th century warlord from eastern Europe, Seattle hope he can instill this fear into the hearts of pitchers.
The main question here: how much longer can Ichiro Suzuki defy Father Time? The superstar is 34-years-old, which is ancient in speedy CF years.
Projected Starters:
C Kenji Johjima
1B Richie Sexson
2B Jose Lopez
3B Adrian Beltre
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
LF Raul Ibanez
CF Ichiro Suzuki
RF Wladimir Balantien
DH Jose Vidro
SP1 Erik Bedard
SP2 Felix Hernandez
SP3 Jarrod Washburn
SP4 Carlos Silva
SP5 Miguel Batista
CL J.J. Putz
Oakland A’s - 2007 Record 76-86, Pythagorean 79-83
When your franchise is committed to maintaining a low payroll budget in addition to trying to compete, times like this are inevitable (regardless of who your general manager is). Oakland, awaiting construction on their new stadium conveniently located in the town of East Bumf*ck, California, is in full-blown rebuilding mode. Are their up-and-coming players talented enough to make things respectable?
Their two most valuable players, ace Dan Haren and slugger Nick Swisher, have been dealt for a treasure trove of prospects, most of whom won’t be relied upon to compete in The Show this season. Offensively, the picture is Oakland is still a bit murky, as there is quite a motley crew of young talent and wayward veterans here. The smart money will be on top prospect Daric Barton to assume a full season of at-bats in between 1B and DH, as he has nothing left to prove with the bat in the minor leagues. Rookie LF Ryan Sweeney will probably get a chance to start. Catcher Kurt Suzuki assumes full time duties behind the plate, and Chris Denorfia will take over in CF after missing all of 2007 with an injury.
While the offense has quite a few question marks, the pitching staff doesn’t look very promising at all. After losing Haren, the A’s are left with a staff led by the inconsistent Joe Blanton and Rich Harden, a guy whose talent ranks among the best in the game, but is never healthy. After that, there is a bunch of flotsam and jetsam, including old buddy Lenny DiNardo. Huston Street returns to the bullpen with Kiko Calero and Alan Embree, and the addition of Joey Devine should help a little. All things considered, it might be a long season here.
Projected Starters:
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
3B Eric Chavez
SS Bobby Crosby
LF Ryan Sweeney
CF Chris Denorfia
RF Travis Buck
DH Jack Cust
SP1 Joe Blanton
SP2 Rich Harden
SP3 Chad Gaudin
SP4 Lenny DiNardo
SP5 Justin Duchscherer
CL Huston Street
Texas Rangers - 2007 Record 75-87, Pythagorean 79-83
It’s been 8 years since the Rangers finished above 3rd place in their division, will they buck that trend in 2008? Texas did make some interesting moves this offseason. Acquiring OF Josh Hamilton, 1B Ben Broussard, and SP Jason Jennings should help the team deal with the void left by the departure of Mark Teixiera. However, will the Broussard deal block up-and-comer Jarrod Saltalamacchia from progressing to his potential at 1B?
This lineup is not very deep. They will be relying on strong performances from the likes of Marlon Byrd and Milton Bradley, who is recovering from that odd injury sustained via a wrestling move by his old manager. SS Michael Young should produce with the bat, but he is beginning to slow down and is not very effective in the field. Catcher Gerald Laird is an offensive black hole.
Ever since Nolan Ryan decided to hang up the cleats and do Advil commercials, the pitching in Texas has been sort of a joke. Will Jason Jennings join the long list of busted free agent pitching aquisitions? Coming off surgery, the reports from spring training are that he’s throwing fine. IF healthy, he should be an effective league-average type. Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla will head off arotation which also includes Jennings, Brandon McCarthy, and probably Kason Gabbard (giving Red Sox fans at least one more reason to bitch about management, which will hopefully fill that quota).
At the very least, Texas will have an interesting bullpen, as C.J. Wilson and Joaquin Benoit come off of a strong 2007 campaign, and newcomers Eddie Guardado and Kasuo Fukumori will join the fray. Surprisingly, the Rangers were 5th in the MLB in bullpen ERA last season (3.69).
Projected Starters:
C Gerald Laird
1B Ben Broussard
2B Ian Kinsler
3B Hank Blalock
SS Michael Young
LF Frank Catalanotto
CF Josh Hamilton
RF Marlon Byrd
DH Milton Bradley
SP1 Kevin Millwood
SP2 Vincente Padilla
SP3 Jason Jennings
SP4 Brandon McCarthy
SP5 Kason Gabbard
CL C.J. Wilson
_____________________________________________
PREDICTIONS
Standings:
Anaheim
Seattle
Texas
Oakland
Nothing is really surprise among the top 2 teams here. I’ll probably draw some disagreements by penciling Oakland in last place, but that rotation simply looks dreadful. They are counting on the likes of Justin Duchscherer, Chad Gaudin, and Lenny DiNardo to start 90+ games. With an offense that has some bright spots but some huge “ifs”, this team could be in trouble. Texas isn’t exactly featuring a mind-blowing squad, their pitching should be a bit better than Oakland’s (shockingly).
AL West Top Hitter: Howie Kendrick
AL West Top Pitcher: Erik Bedard
AL West Top Rookie: Wladamir Balantien
Top 10 AL West Prospects:
1) Jeff Clement, C, SEA
2) Daric Barton, 1B, OAK
3) Brandon Wood, 3B, ANA
4) Nick Adenhart, SP, ANA
5) Gio Gonzalez, SP, OAK
6) Carlos Triunfel, SS, SEA
7) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, OAK
8) Chris Davis, 3B, TEX
9) Jordan Walden, SP, ANA
10) Phillippe Aumont, SP, SEA
Cancel the season. The Mets have added the best pitcher in baseball. They’ve transformed their 2007 contenders to Vegas favorites. The rest of the division has faded away or moved laterally. But, wait! Not so fast, obnoxious-NYC-daily-rag-columnist! This race is not over.
Every team would love to add Johan Santana. Will it be enough to put the aging Mets over the top? With another season on the odometer of Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner and Pedro Martinez, their backups: Jeff Conine, Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa; will play a large role. A single injury to one of their ancient porcelin princesses will crack the shaky ice on which Omar Minaya has thrown his chips. Pretty much any doomsday-cliche works here, I guess it’s just salt in the wound at this point. Where the Phillies and Braves are lacking in top flight rotation talent, they make up for in balance and depth. Oh, and the Nationals and Marlins play the punching bags.
New York Mets
2007: Actual 88-74, Pythag 87-75
2008 Projected: 94-68
I really, really wanted to pick someone else to win the East. I wrote several versions of this column, one with a very weak case for the Phillies offense carrying them and another with the Braves possessing just enough depth to win. I think it will be heartbreak-close, but the Mets will pull it out. That is, if they don’t lose 11 of their last 16 and fold like a scared puppy that just peed on the rug, again.
Lineup:
SS Jose Reyes (S)
2B Luis Castillo (S)
3B David Wright (R)
CF Carlos Beltran (S)
1B Carlos Delgado (L)
LF Moises Alou (R)
RF Ryan Church (L)
C Brian Schneider (L)
I guess a 150 OPS+ and 34/5 SB/CS are only good enough for fourth in the MVP voting. Amazingly, David Wright’s 2007 season was accepted with quiet aplomb. The New York media effect couldn’t put him over the top, even though he had sexier numbers than Jimmy Rollins at an important defensive position. He can’t be blamed for “the meltdown;” his best two months were August and September.
Perception of the other member of the Mets’ left side is skewed in the opposite direction. Jose Reyes collects accolades for his disruption on the basepaths, but his middling OBP and lack of power prevent his ascension into legitimate All-Stardom. Yes, he’s made two mid-summer classics, but it’s absurd that he stole some MVP votes from Wright in 2007. 78 is a lot of stolen bases, but Wright’s success rate was far better. I’d apologize for this “David Wright got robbed” tirade if it wasn’t true. Sorry, Mets fans, but you’ve got the third best shortstop in this division and Yunel Escobar has a fighting chance to move you down another notch. In fact, Escobar (.451) outslugged Reyes (.421) in 2007. Congrats, Jose, Cristian Guzman will never touch you.
Don’t expect as much from the rest of the infield. Luis Castillo and Carlos Delgado have seen better days. Brian Schneider and Church came at the cost of Lastings Milledge, but expectations are for Schneider to work on receiving. Alou should be league average in left and Beltran will earn every bit of his $13.5m.
CL Billy Wagner
RHRP Aaron Heilman
LHRP Pedro Feliciano
RHRP Matt Wise
LHRP Scott Schoenweis
RHRP Duaner Sanchez
When the inevitable catastrophic elbow explosion happens to Billy Wagner, the pen should be able to weather the storm. Heilman would slide into the closer’s role, which he and his 1.07 WHIP are qualified for, and solid lefty Pedro Feliciano would set-up. After that it’s righty Matt Wise (1.45 WHIP) and nearly cooked Scott Schoenweis. The long-anticipated return of Duaner Sanchez from a freak shoulder injury would do wonders to a thin but talented pen.
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Pedro Martinez
RHP John Maine
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP Orlando Hernandez
RHP Jorge Sosa
Pedro and El Duque should be treated as one starter, because they’re all but guaranteed to miss significant time. That means pressure on Maine and Perez to repeat their success in 2007. Jorge Sosa had one magical season in Atlanta, but other than that he has never had a league average ERA. Minaya has been rumored to be after Kyle Lohse. He’s no stud, but another option if Sosa struggles in place of Pedro or the Duke. After an amazing first half, John Maine’s August (6.32 ERA) and September (5.93) are worrisome.
This could be a great rotation, but the question marks are larger than Atlanta’s, Plan B is shaky, and there is no Plan C: Pelfrey isn’t ready (1.70 WHIP, 1.15 K/BB). There are two reasons the Mets will win this divison:
Atlanta Braves
(2007: Actual 84-78, Pythag 89-73)
2008 Projected: 93-69, 1 GB
Some argue that juggernaut offenses are the key to regular season success. I say starting rotation depth cures the 162 game grind. Injuries, especially among pitchers, happen. Every time an ancient journeyman starter takes the hill because there’s noone else to go that day, I cringe and immediately blame the general manager for a failure to anticipate the unexpected. Uh, yeah, I guess that makes sense. The 2008 Braves will not have a high scoring offense, but they will hit and they have more rotation depth than anyone.
RHP John Smoltz
RHP Tim Hudson
LHP Tom Glavine
LHP Chuck James
RHP Jair Jurrjens
RHP Buddy Carlyle
LHP Mike Hampton
LHP Jo-Jo Reyes
RHP Anthony Lerew
That, dear reader, is a pile of arms. There are throbbing uncertainties in Glavine, Hampton, and the kids; but the volume of starters available to the Braves is astounding. Jurrjens wasn’t spectacular in seven starts for the Tigers and may require some time in AAA. Jo-Jo Reyes averaged about a strikeout per inning in the minors, so he’ll get another shot after struggling (69 ERA+, 0.9 K/BB, 50.2 IP) in 2007. It may take a few months, but they’ll figure out the best five and come on strong in the second half.
CL Raphael Soriano
LHRP Mike Gonzalez
RHRP Peter Moylan
RHRP Manny Acosta
LHRP Will Ohman
LHRP Royce Ring
The bullpen doesn’t have so much depth, but Soriano is solid at the end. Hear that, Bavasi?! If you don’t remember, Bill Bavasi traded Soriano for Horacio Ramirez (7.16 ERA) in the 2006 off-season. Mike Gonzalez may or may not be back from 2007 elbow-ligament-replacement surgery. And since I’m sick of giving Tommy John getting all that free press, that’s how I will refer to that procedure. Peter Moylan’s return from the scrap heap is worth mentioning, ambiguous Wikipedia wording aside:
1997, After failing to make the Major Leagues, Moylan left the Major League Baseball system. He then took a job as a pharmaceutical salesman in Australia. At a certain point Moylan improved his pitching and began his comeback.
That certain point was the World Baseball Classic in 2006. Sounds fishy to me. He’s a rare commodity: a sidearmer with some heat. Serious regression should be expected; he caught a lot of people by surprise in 2007. The lefties are led by Will Ohman with Royce Ring and newly aquired Jeff Ridgway. None of those are fantastic options so Gonzalez’s recovery is important.
Lineup:
2B Kelly Johnson (L)
SS Yunel Escobar (R)
1B Mark Teixeira (S)
3B Chipper Jones (S)
C Brian McCann (L)
RF Jeff Franceour (R)
CF Mark Kotsay (L)
LF Matt Diaz (R)
They’ve bid adieu to Andruw Jones and replaced him with Mark Kotsay. In name recognition and merchandise sales that’s a huge downgrade, but in actual offensive production Jones is only about 10% better, using career average OPS+. Defensively, Kotsay gets good jumps and takes good routes which make up for his average speed. The future in the outfield isn’t a big concern for new GM Frank Wren, because Jordan Schaefer (.294/.354/.477 in 106 G) had a breakout season in high-A. He’ll start at AA and may debut opening day 2009. Watch for 2007 draftee Jason Heyward as well. Edgar Renteria was shipped to Detroit for Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez, a nice package facilitated by continued Red Sox subsidization of Edgar’s contract. At least Theo the Gunslinger knew when to fold ‘em. Yunel Escobar (.326/.385/.451 in 319 major league at bats) was ready, and the job is his to lose.
The above illustrates Chipper Jones’ career, in games played and OPS+. It shows that he was an ironman for nine years, but the wear and tear caught up to him in 2003 and 2004. With a reduced workload he has regained his former dominance. He’s thirty-six, so a decline would be natural, but if he’s limited to 120 games he can play another three years. A contract year boost from Chipper or Mark Teixiera and a return to 2006 form from Brian McCann and this offense will be just fine to win in the National League.
Philadelphia Phillies
(2007: Actual 89-73, Pythag 87-75)
2008 Projected: 88-74, 6 GB
Dude, Pedro Feliz is not the answer. The ghost of Mike Schmidt has haunted the hot corner in Philly for a decade, turning likes of David Bell, Abraham Nunez and Wes Helms into quivering piles of ineptitude. Feliz’s range was best in the NL according to zone rating, but his historic ability to make outs is well documented. His .290 (!) career OBP is nothing short of terrifying.
SS Jimmy Rollins (S)
CF Shane Victorino (S)
2B Chase Utley (L)
1B Ryan Howard (L)
LF Pat Burrell (R)
RF Jayson Werth (R)/Geoff Jenkins (L)
3B Pedro Feliz (R)
C Carlos Ruiz (R)
The Phils return the second best offense in baseball (5.51 RPG) missing Aaron Rowand (123 OPS+) in center. The platoon combination of Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins has awesome potential. Hat tip to former Dewey’s House writer Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts. The offense is not the problem.
LHP Cole Hamels
RHP Brett Myers
RHP Kyle Kendrick
LHP Jamie Moyer
RHP Adam Eaton
Solid at the top, but fades quickly. While we were pointing and lauging at old man Charlie Manuel, he actually found a strength in Brett Myers at the end of the pen. Myers is being reluctantly dragged by the hair back into the rotation following the addition of Brad Lidge. There are a few unwritten chapters in this epic drama. Hamels will contend for the Cy Young, but the injury concerns around his 6′3″ 175 pound frame will persist for the rest of his career. In eleven of his twenty-eight starts in 2007, he threw between 110 and 121 pitches. Tread lightly.
Kyle Kendrick had an impressive rookie campaign marred by a disappointing loss in the NLDS to Colorado. Down 0-1 at home, the Phils needed KK to step up and he layed an egg (3.2 IP, 5 ER). Coming out strong will endear him to Manuel and cement his spot in the rotation. Don’t scoff at Jamie Moyer. He’ll take the ball for another 30+ starts at league average production. If the Phils could say the same about Adam Eaton, they’d be in decent shape. Unfortunately, an infusion of young talent isn’t close. Carlos Carrasco had a poor season at AA Reading after a solid first half in the FSL. Kyle Drabek has great stuff, but an elbow injury requiring ligament replacement surgery has halted his development until 2009. The upper minors is a barren wasteland outside of fringe LHP prospect Josh Outman.
CL Brad Lidge
RHRP Tom Gordon
LHRP J.C. Romero
RHRP Ryan Madson
RHRP Scott Mathieson
RHRP Clay Condrey
The Lidge rollercoaster has arrived. Astros’ GM Ed Wade lobbed a meatball to his former team, dealing the talented but inconsistent pitcher for Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary. Lidge’s inconsistency could soon force Myers back to the pen. After losing his closer’s job immediately in 2007, Lidge regained his form and role by midseason with a few minor hiccups along the way. He still strikes batters out at an high rate (11.82 K/9 in 2007) but allows baserunners (1.25 WHIP) and doesn’t “bear down” with runners on (.770 OPS with runners on versus .686 with bases empty).
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies made a run at the division. They should be no worse than third, considering the dreck that’s next. This is turning into a novel, so bear with me.
Florida Marlins
(2007: Actual 71-91, Pythag 72-90)
2008 Projected: 70-92, many GB
Rebuilding? To me, rebuilding happens after some success. The Marlins have bucked the trend and launched into full rebuilding-mode after finishing fifty games out of first. Low standards? Check. I understand that this was the only option, but Dontrelle Willis had far more value two years ago, and it was clear at that point that this wasn’t a playoff team. He should have been dealt long ago for much more, and the Marlins could be two years into this process. It will be a long time before there’s joy in South Florida; at least the return will have an immediate impact. Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Mike Rabelo will be contributors in 2008, whether they’re ready or not.
Rotation:
LHP Scott Olson
RHP Sergio Mitre
LHP Andrew Miller
RHP Ricky Nolasco
RHP Rick VandenHurk
LHP Mark Hendrickson
Ages: 24, 27, 23, 25, 23 and old man river Hendrickson at 34. There will be growing pains, but there will be progress. Josh Johnson is out until 2009 with ligament replacement surgery, and Anibal Sanchez has yet to throw off a mound after 2007 shoulder surgery. His ETA is mid-season at best. Olson was wildly inconsistent in 2007. The big lefty Miller is polished for his tender age, and would contend for ROY if he were eligible. If you’re wondering, the limits to rookie eligibility are 130 at-bats, 50 IP, or 45 days on a ML roster. Miller threw 64 innings in 2007.
Lineup:
CF Cameron Maybin (R)
RF Jeremy Hermida (L)
SS Hanley Ramirez (R)
1B Mike Jacobs (L)
2B Dan Uggla (R)
LF Josh Willingham (R)
3B Dallas McPherson (R)
C Mike Rabelo (S)
Only if I were running things. The irrational crush on stolen bases will cost the Marlin untold runs because manager Fredi Gonzalez will bat Hanley Ramirez first, twisting a stick in the eye of baseball nerds everywhere. His value isn’t in getting on base, but producing runs in the middle of the lineup. Every aspect of his offensive game improved in 2007.
This isn’t meant to be a projection. It is meant to illustrate how much Ramirez improved from 06 to 07. The 2008 column shows his production if the trend continued into 2008. It would be the best three-year improvement in the history of the game (I have no data to back that up), and unlikely, but if he continues at a rate half of which he showed he’ll still be among the top five players in baseball. He’s a butcher in the field, comfirmed by John Dewan’s zone rating (.786, last in NL). You may be interested to know that he’s superior to one shortstop measured by ZR, Captain Derek Jeter. Hanley’s OBP has been driven by hits, but he’s hit enough. The area of his offensive game that can be improved the most is his patience at the plate.
Maybin struggled (.143 BA) in a short stint in the bigs last year, but he’s a well-developed 20-year-old with power and speed. He’s surrounded by Hermida and Willingham in the outfield, both of whom where productive in 07. Willingham is ancient at 29 and his value has declined since moving from behind the plate. Rabelo, a native Floridian, has his first starting gig. He caught Miller a few times last season with Detroit.
CL Kevin Gregg
RHRP Justin Miller
RHRP Matt Lindstrom
LHRP Taylor Tankersley
RHRP Lee Gardner
RHRP Daniel Barone
The bullpen will miss Henry Owens, out for the first half after shoulder surgery. Kevin Gregg is the highest paid player on this team at $2.5 million. Wait, Craig Hansen has made more money than the highest paid Marlin? Actually, the bullpen isn’t as weak as you’d expect from a team with a payroll in the $15 million range. Miller had his best season last year (1.24 WHIP, 74 Ks, 61 IP) and the kids have some talent.
There’s a lot of potential in the starting eight, but the rotation lacks the experience and depth to contend. It won’t be pretty.
Washington Nationals
(2007: Actual 73-89, Pythag 71-91)
2008 Projected: 66-96, a bazillion GB
About a year ago, I wrote the Gnats team preview for Dewey’s House. I predicted 102 losses. They beat my prediction by 13 wins. Their bullpen was stronger than expected (3.81 ERA) and a couple of players (Shawn Hill, DaMeatHook) had good seasons. They open Nationals Park in 2008, which looks pretty average. Gee, was “Baseball Stadium” taken? The marketing guru behind “Nationals Park” needs to start smoking pot or something.
Rotation:
RHP John Patterson
RHP Shawn Hill
RHP Jason Bergmann
LHP Matt Chico
RHP Tim Redding
It appears that Patterson is fully recovered from elbow problems that have sidelined him since 2005. He threw 100 pitches February 9th with no pain. He was one of the top pitchers in the game in his last full season, and will earn less than $1 million this year. He’s got 4+ years of service, so the motivation of impending free agency should drive him. I think he’ll return to form. Hill had elbow and shoulder problems last year, as well as surgery in October to repair a torn labrum. That sentence has more red flags than a communist rally. Bergmann/Chico/Redding will eat some innings. The Nats success will be inversely proportional to number of starts Mike Bacsik (Back-zit?) gets.
Their minor league system is vastly improved under Jim Bowden. Baseball America sings his praises by launching them from 30th to 9th in their organizational rankings. 22 year old lefty Ross Detwiler could make an impact as soon as the second half of 2008, but their decision to bring him up for one appearance in 2007 is curious. First basemen Chris Marrero hit 14 homers in 54 games at Class A.
Lineup:
SS Cristian Guzman (S)
CF Lastings Milledge (R)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)
1B Dmitri Young (S)
RF Austin Kearns (R)
LF Wily Mo Pena (R)
2B Ronnie Belliard (R)
C Johnny Estrada (S)
This is an odd lineup. Beyond the lack of a true left handed hitter; vets like Nick Johnson, Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca don’t have starting jobs. PLoD (thanks, Capitol Improvement) was signed as a free agent before his implication in the Mitchell report and knee injury. Bowden must not expect much from LoDuca, because he subsequently nabbed Johnny Estrada and relegated Jesus Flores to Columbus. This post on a BBTF message board from a Brewers fan purporting to be in the know, on Estrada, “he is beyond toxic. He drinks nuclear waste for breakfast and pisses hate. That he is bi-lingual only means he can alienate twice as many people twice as fast.” Maybe he can room with Elijah Dukes?
Lopez was shopped all off-season for pitching, to no avail. He’ll be a $4 million backup. Nick Johnson is on his way back from a broken leg, but will have to win the job from Young. Zimmerman broke his hamate late in 2007, a bone injury notorious for lingering and taking away power.
CL Chad Cordero
RHRP Jon Rauch
RHRP Luis Ayala
RHRP Ryan Wagner
RHRP Jesus Colome
RHRP Saul Rivera
Again, no good left handed option. Detwiler could be the answer, but developing a 22 year old in a major league bullpen is stupid. It might work in brief ‘Joba Chamberlain‘ situations, but not over an entire season. Rauch and Cordero are good against lefties so it might work with smoke and mirrors.
The biggest problem is the injury concern at the top of the rotation. The Nats could run through 15-20 starters again before they figure anything out. They’ll be closer to my failed 102 loss prediction than their actual 89.
In Summary:
Mets 94-68
Braves 93-69
Phillies 88-74
Marlins 70-92
Gnats 66-96
In the midst of what might be considered a lackluster offseason, I still can’t help but feel good about the team as it heads to Fort Myers. You could say…I’m a prime optimist?
Yeah, try the veal.
Well, this news has certainly come out of nowhere. According to the Herald (and other reports), Curtis Montague Schilling is suffering from a rotator cuff or labrum injury.
Those of you who are remotely familiar with the art of pitching should understand the magnitude of this news. For those of you who don’t, the gist of it is this: he might not pitch again.
The details are vague at this point, but Tony Massarotti’s take paints a uneasy picture, with Schilling and the team at odds over treatment and contract issues.
UPDATE: Curt will not have surgery, is likely out until All-Star Break.
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s officially starting to smell like baseball season.
We kick off our 2008 Major League Baseball preview series with the NL West capsule. I’ll go through the teams in the order they finished in 2007, and post my predictions at the bottom of the article.
Arizona Diamondbacks (2007 record 90-72, 2007 Pythagorean 79-83):
The first thing that should catch your eye here is the discrepancy between Arizona’s expected 2007 record and their actual record. The D-Backs outperformed their Pythagorean record by a whopping 11 wins on their way to a division title.
This team has undergone a few changes this offseason, as former Red Sox assistant GM Josh Byrnes has been quite busy. Most notably, he acquired ace Dan Haren from Oakland A’s in exchange for a small army of minor league prospects, a deal which arguably gives Arizona the best #1-#2 punch in the league (Brandon Webb being the other pitcher). Haren and Webb have both averaged well over 200 innings per season for the past 3 years, so this move should take a little pressure off of Arizona’s bullpen. Randy Johnson returns for another season, and apparently will be ready for Spring Training. If healthy, he’ll be an adequate #3 starter, even at the tender age of 68.
The D-back’s top candidate for closer is a familiar name in New England: Brandon Lyon, a guy who really isn’t as good as his numbers from last year. Another name being bandied about as a candidate for the role is Tony Pena. Not to mention…get ready for this…free agent Keith Foulke could be making a comeback (probably as a situational reliever).
Arizona’s major weakness is on the offensive side of the game. They had some difficulty scoring runs last season, however, they do have the benefit of youth and upside at the plate, particularly in the dynamic trio of Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Stephen Drew, all three of which will likely improve this season.
The only major positional battle in Arizona right now is at third base, where a now-healthy Chad Tracy and last year’s starter Mark Reynolds will vie for the starting job.
Projected Starters:
C Chris Snyder
1B Conor Jackson
2B Orlando Hudson
3B Mark Reynolds
SS Stephen Drew
LF Eric Byrnes
CF Chris Young
RF Justin Upton
SP Brandon Webb
SP Dan Haren
SP Randy Johnson
SP Doug Davis
SP Micah Owings
Colorado Rockies (2007 record 90-73, Pythagorean 91-72):
The Feel Good Team of 2007 will be returning most of their key players, with the notable exception of Houston-bound Kaz Matsui along with relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Jeremy Affeldt. For the first time in, well, forever, the Rockies have an interesting young starting rotation on their hands. Spearheaded by tricky lefty Jeff Francis, Colorado’s projected rotation has an average age of 26, the oldest being Aaron Cook (29). The 3-4-5 combination of Jason Hirsh, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Rookie of the Year candidate Franklin Morales is among the most promising in the game. Manny Corpas usurped the closer’s role from Brian Fuentes in mid-season 2007, and both will return to provide Colorado with a formidable back end of the bullpen this year.
Of course, Colorado’s bread-and butter is their bats. GM Dan O’Dowd wisely locked up the team’s impressive core of Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitski with long term contracts, and is currently negotiating with Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe to avoid arbitration. The legendary Todd Helton continues to make a push for the Hall of Fame at age 34, after bouncing back with a 133 OPS+ last season.
Projected Starters:
C Yorvit Torrealba
1B Todd Helton
2B Jayson Nix
3B Garrett Atkins
SS Troy Tulowitski
LF Matt Holliday
CF Willy Taveras
RF Bard Hawpe
SP Jeff Francis
SP Aaron Cook
SP Jason Hirsh
SP Ubaldo Jimenez
SP Franklin Morales
San Diego Padres (2007 record 89-74, 2007 Pythagorean 89-74):
The victims of Colorado’s ballyhooed late-season surge, San Diego will have their hands full once again in this competitive division. Typically, they have been built for pitching in recent years, and the 2008 version looks to be a bit of the same. Cy Young Award winner and franchise player Jake Peavy returns to anchor a savvy rotation, also including the towering Chris Young and the future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux. Randy Wolf was brought in on a 1-year-contract and will likely follow Maddux, and Justin Germano looks like the top 5th starter candidate out of a myriad of guys.
Sure, Trevor Hoffman blew a game which could be considered on of the most important single contests in San Diego history, but the 40-year-old isn’t quite done yet. One red flag to consider if you’re a Pads fan:
Hoffman, 1st half of 2007: 1.91 ERA, .162/.203/.274 allowed
Hoffman, 2nd half of 2007: 4.44 ERA, .306/.358/.459 allowed
Not exactly what you want to see from a guy on the wrong side of 40. He also had trouble with left-handers in particular last season. If Hoffman turns out to be cooked, setup man Heath Bell should be able to slide into the role.
San Diego might have the worst outfield in the major leagues, with the putrefying fly-larvae infested corpses of Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles rotting in the hot California sun in CF and RF. My friends, that is a whole lot of ground covered by two very brittle old men. This would have been a decent tandem a decade ago. Scott Hairston and his career 86 OPS+ will likely take left field. Luckily, the Padres have an interesting offensive infield. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Khalil Greene, and Adrian Gonzalez should all provide decent pop, and second baseman Tadahito Iguchi will be a nice stopgap at second base while prospects Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli sharpen their game.
Projected Starters:
C Michael Barrett
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Tadahito Iguchi
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
SS Kahlil Greene
LF Scott Hairston
CF Jim Edmonds
RF Brian Giles
SP Jake Peavy
SP Chris Young
SP Greg Maddux
SP Randy Wolf
SP Justin Germano
Los Angeles Dodgers (2007 record 82-80, 2007 Pythagorean 82-80):
Yeah, I was rooting for Grady Little. I’m in the microscopic minority of Red Sox fans who doesn’t hate Grady, and felt he received an unfairly large slice of the blame pie for that disaster in October of 2003. Alas, even I will admit that this team had way too much talent to finish in fourth place, and thus Grady is gone and replaced with another polarizing figure: former Yankee manager Joe Torre. I’ll be pulling for Joe to succeed after his banishment from New York, but I honestly don’t think he is an improvement over Grady Little.
In a hilarious turn of events, the Dodgers have brought in former Yankee relievers Scott Proctor, Tanyon Sturtze, and Mike Myers, all of whom are familiar with Joe Torre’s unique bullpen philosophy, which I believe can be summed up in the following mantra: “Throw until your shoulder is connected only by sinew”.
The big news in LA is the signing of CF superstar Andruw Jones, who is coming off of an uncharacteristically terrible season. Jones, still only 30-years old, inked a two year deal, and he should be hungry to prove himself for the Dodgers. One of my favorite players in the National League is catcher Russell Martin, he of the all-around solid game. OF Matt Kemp, 1B James Loney, and rookie 3B Andy LaRoche (a serious threat to unseat old friend Nomar Garciaparra at the hot corner) are also dynamic young players to keep an eye on in 2008.
Pitcher Jason Schmidt will need to come back strong to prove that his contract isn’t the worst in the storied history of the Los Angeles Dodgers. He suffered a torn labrum last season, an injury which tends to have long term negative effects on pitchers. Even excluding Schmidt, the Dodgers have a solid front-end of the rotation. Brad Penny (he of the insanely hot actress girlfriend) and our old drinkin’ buddy Derek Lowe will be joined by Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda (career 3.69 ERA in Japan), and emerging ace Chad Billingsley. Phenomenal closer Takashi Saito is 38-years-old, but given his utter dominance in 2007, we can’t really see a steep decline from him in ‘08.
Projected Starters:
C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
2B Jeff Kent
3B Nomar Garciaparra
SS Rafael Furcal
LF Juan Pierre
CF Andruw Jones
RF Matt Kemp
SP Brad Penny
SP Derek Lowe
SP Chad Billingsley
SP Hiroki Kuroda
SP Jason Schmidt
San Francisco Giants (2007 record 71-91, 2007 Pythagorean 77-85):
2007 was a difficult year for one of Major League Baseball’s oldest and most storied franchises. A last place finish, a shamed superstar, a GM who can’t decide whether to rebuild or overspend on free agents, inflated housing costs, the television series “Monk”, all of these things plagued the city of San Francisco. Barry Bonds is gone; in 2008 he’ll either be playing elsewhere, retired, or in jail. His departure is not good news for this team, as they don’t have anything close to him in terms of offensive ability.
Newly acquired Aaron Rowand is looking like their best hitter by default, although I can’t figure out why they signed him to a 5-year deal. Joining Aaron in the lineup is a vortex of mediocrity, young and old. The offensive roster is a virtual Who’s Who of below-average baseball players. Seasoned veterans such as Randy Winn, Omar Vizquel, and Rich Aurilia (yup, still alive) will be joined by youngsters such as Dan Ortmeier and Kevin Frandsen. Frankly, this lineup will be terrible.
Luckily for the Giants, their pitching should be good enough to stave off a 100-loss turd of a season this year. Behind the unfortunately expensive Barry Zito, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are two of the most exciting young pitchers in the game, both with #1 ace potential. Noah Lowry and Kevin Correia can hold their own in the back end of the rotation.
Projected Starters:
C Benji Molina
1B Dan Ortmeier
2B Ray Durham
3B Kevin Frandsen
SS Omar Vizquel
LF Dave Roberts
CF Aaron Rowand
RF Randy Winn
SP Barry Zito
SP Matt Cain
SP Tim Lincecum
SP Noah Lowry
SP Kevin Correia
______________________________________________
Predicted 2008 Finish:
1) Colorado
2) Los Angeles
3) Arizona
4) San Diego
5) San Francisco
It will be a close battle between the top 3 teams there, but in the end, Colorado will have too much firepower, and their rotation will be better than most people think. The Dodgers’ young offense kicks into gear before Arizona’s can do the same. San Diego and San Francisco will be out of contention early.
NL West Offensive Player of the Year: Matt Holliday
NL West Pitcher of the Year: Brandon Webb
NL West Rookie of the Year: Franklin Morales
Top 10 NL West Prospects:
1) Andy LaRoche, 3B (LA)
2) Clayton Kershaw, SP (LA)
3) Franklin Morales, SP (COL)
4) Matt Antonelli, CF/2B (SD)
5) Angel Villalona, 3B (SF)
6) Jarrod Parker, SP (ARI)
7) Chase Headley, 3B (SD)
8) Hu Chin Lung, SS (LAD)
9) Ian Stewart, 3B (COL)
10) Scott Elbert, SP (LAD)
I must say, getting out of bed this morning was a pretty Goddamn difficult task.
I won’t mention the obvious reason, but also contributing to the stew of misery is a variety of vile ingredients. The economy is as bad as it’s ever been in my cognitive lifetime, the USD isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on, the country is mired in war, the election season has everyone in a contentious mood, it’s cold outside, and we have just officially entered the most dormant time of the sports year in New England.
However, help is on the way.
Stop fastening that noose: this week, we will begin our in-depth preview of the 2008 season. You can check out the previews from last year here, and admire our prognostication skills (or lack thereof).
Just what this town needs, another dude named “Sean”.
The deal is for 1 year at $700,000. Sean Casey, 33, will act as the primary backup to Kevin Youkilis at first base, and will be the first left-handed bat off the bench. Casey rebounded from a rough AL transition in 2006 to hit .296/.353/.393 for Detroit last season.
Despite my pithy comment up top, I really like this deal. Casey is among the toughest guys in baseball to strike out (42 Ks in 492 plate appearances last season), and would make an excellent situational pinch-hitter. He is also, by all accounts, a “character guy”, and while I don’t put as much stock into that as some, I’ll at least admit that good personalities are better than bad ones.
So, the Sox are apparently set in the infield (now that Alex Cora has tunneled his way out of a Miami gulag). With Coco Crisp’s fate still uncertain, the only remaining question seems to be in the outfield. Stay tuned.
In the past few days, Keith Law of ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus (Kevin Goldstein, presumably) have both released their Top 100 prospect rankings for the upcoming 2008 season. The Red Sox minor league system was heavily represented in both lists. Here’s a recap (without getting into too much of the details from these subscriber articles):
Clay Buchholz: #4 on the Keith Law list, #2 on the Baseball Prospectus list.
Jacoby Ellsbury: #19 on the KL list, #16 on the BP list.
Lars Anderson: #28 on the KL list, #100 on the BP list.
Jed Lowrie: #55 on the KL list, #57 on the BP list.
Justin Masterson: #78 on the KL list, #53 on the BP list.
Ryan Kalish: #60 on the BP list.
Michael Bowden: #95 on the BP list.
Buchholz, likely the best pitching prospect in the game, isn’t surprising. Ellsbury’s ranking seems high to me, perhaps driven by his impressive late-season performance. At the very least, his ranking is consistent, though I have a feeling Red Sox fans might be in for a slight letdown if they are expecting the next Tris Speaker. I like Ellsbury, but for some reason I can’t shake this bearish feeling whenever I see the enormous expectations on this kid.
There has been some variability in the opinions on Lars Anderson, which tends to be the case with younger prospects who are 4+ years from the majors.
One final note: I have a strong feeling that Michael Bowden will reestablish himself as a bona fide pitching prospect in 2008. He’ll be repeating AA, and I expect him to be one of the better pitchers in the Eastern League, perhaps becoming the 2008 version of Alan Horne.
| M | T | W | T | F | S | S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| « Jan | Mar » | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | ||
Powered by WordPress