Ladies and gentlemen, it’s officially starting to smell like baseball season.

We kick off our 2008 Major League Baseball preview series with the NL West capsule. I’ll go through the teams in the order they finished in 2007, and post my predictions at the bottom of the article.

Arizona Diamondbacks (2007 record 90-72, 2007 Pythagorean 79-83):

The first thing that should catch your eye here is the discrepancy between Arizona’s expected 2007 record and their actual record. The D-Backs outperformed their Pythagorean record by a whopping 11 wins on their way to a division title.

This team has undergone a few changes this offseason, as former Red Sox assistant GM Josh Byrnes has been quite busy. Most notably, he acquired ace Dan Haren from Oakland A’s in exchange for a small army of minor league prospects, a deal which arguably gives Arizona the best #1-#2 punch in the league (Brandon Webb being the other pitcher). Haren and Webb have both averaged well over 200 innings per season for the past 3 years, so this move should take a little pressure off of Arizona’s bullpen. Randy Johnson returns for another season, and apparently will be ready for Spring Training. If healthy, he’ll be an adequate #3 starter, even at the tender age of 68.

The D-back’s top candidate for closer is a familiar name in New England: Brandon Lyon, a guy who really isn’t as good as his numbers from last year. Another name being bandied about as a candidate for the role is Tony Pena. Not to mention…get ready for this…free agent Keith Foulke could be making a comeback (probably as a situational reliever).

Arizona’s major weakness is on the offensive side of the game. They had some difficulty scoring runs last season, however, they do have the benefit of youth and upside at the plate, particularly in the dynamic trio of Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Stephen Drew, all three of which will likely improve this season.

The only major positional battle in Arizona right now is at third base, where a now-healthy Chad Tracy and last year’s starter Mark Reynolds will vie for the starting job.

Projected Starters:
C Chris Snyder
1B Conor Jackson
2B Orlando Hudson
3B Mark Reynolds
SS Stephen Drew
LF Eric Byrnes
CF Chris Young
RF Justin Upton

SP Brandon Webb
SP Dan Haren
SP Randy Johnson
SP Doug Davis
SP Micah Owings

Colorado Rockies (2007 record 90-73, Pythagorean 91-72):

The Feel Good Team of 2007 will be returning most of their key players, with the notable exception of Houston-bound Kaz Matsui along with relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Jeremy Affeldt. For the first time in, well, forever, the Rockies have an interesting young starting rotation on their hands. Spearheaded by tricky lefty Jeff Francis, Colorado’s projected rotation has an average age of 26, the oldest being Aaron Cook (29). The 3-4-5 combination of Jason Hirsh, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Rookie of the Year candidate Franklin Morales is among the most promising in the game. Manny Corpas usurped the closer’s role from Brian Fuentes in mid-season 2007, and both will return to provide Colorado with a formidable back end of the bullpen this year.

Of course, Colorado’s bread-and butter is their bats. GM Dan O’Dowd wisely locked up the team’s impressive core of Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitski with long term contracts, and is currently negotiating with Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe to avoid arbitration. The legendary Todd Helton continues to make a push for the Hall of Fame at age 34, after bouncing back with a 133 OPS+ last season.

Projected Starters:
C Yorvit Torrealba
1B Todd Helton
2B Jayson Nix
3B Garrett Atkins
SS Troy Tulowitski
LF Matt Holliday
CF Willy Taveras
RF Bard Hawpe

SP Jeff Francis
SP Aaron Cook
SP Jason Hirsh
SP Ubaldo Jimenez
SP Franklin Morales

San Diego Padres (2007 record 89-74, 2007 Pythagorean 89-74):

The victims of Colorado’s ballyhooed late-season surge, San Diego will have their hands full once again in this competitive division. Typically, they have been built for pitching in recent years, and the 2008 version looks to be a bit of the same. Cy Young Award winner and franchise player Jake Peavy returns to anchor a savvy rotation, also including the towering Chris Young and the future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux. Randy Wolf was brought in on a 1-year-contract and will likely follow Maddux, and Justin Germano looks like the top 5th starter candidate out of a myriad of guys.

Sure, Trevor Hoffman blew a game which could be considered on of the most important single contests in San Diego history, but the 40-year-old isn’t quite done yet. One red flag to consider if you’re a Pads fan:

Hoffman, 1st half of 2007: 1.91 ERA, .162/.203/.274 allowed
Hoffman, 2nd half of 2007: 4.44 ERA, .306/.358/.459 allowed

Not exactly what you want to see from a guy on the wrong side of 40. He also had trouble with left-handers in particular last season. If Hoffman turns out to be cooked, setup man Heath Bell should be able to slide into the role.

San Diego might have the worst outfield in the major leagues, with the putrefying fly-larvae infested corpses of Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles rotting in the hot California sun in CF and RF. My friends, that is a whole lot of ground covered by two very brittle old men. This would have been a decent tandem a decade ago. Scott Hairston and his career 86 OPS+ will likely take left field. Luckily, the Padres have an interesting offensive infield. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Khalil Greene, and Adrian Gonzalez should all provide decent pop, and second baseman Tadahito Iguchi will be a nice stopgap at second base while prospects Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli sharpen their game.

Projected Starters:
C Michael Barrett
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Tadahito Iguchi
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
SS Kahlil Greene
LF Scott Hairston
CF Jim Edmonds
RF Brian Giles

SP Jake Peavy
SP Chris Young
SP Greg Maddux
SP Randy Wolf
SP Justin Germano

Los Angeles Dodgers (2007 record 82-80, 2007 Pythagorean 82-80):

Yeah, I was rooting for Grady Little. I’m in the microscopic minority of Red Sox fans who doesn’t hate Grady, and felt he received an unfairly large slice of the blame pie for that disaster in October of 2003. Alas, even I will admit that this team had way too much talent to finish in fourth place, and thus Grady is gone and replaced with another polarizing figure: former Yankee manager Joe Torre. I’ll be pulling for Joe to succeed after his banishment from New York, but I honestly don’t think he is an improvement over Grady Little.

In a hilarious turn of events, the Dodgers have brought in former Yankee relievers Scott Proctor, Tanyon Sturtze, and Mike Myers, all of whom are familiar with Joe Torre’s unique bullpen philosophy, which I believe can be summed up in the following mantra: “Throw until your shoulder is connected only by sinew”.

The big news in LA is the signing of CF superstar Andruw Jones, who is coming off of an uncharacteristically terrible season. Jones, still only 30-years old, inked a two year deal, and he should be hungry to prove himself for the Dodgers. One of my favorite players in the National League is catcher Russell Martin, he of the all-around solid game. OF Matt Kemp, 1B James Loney, and rookie 3B Andy LaRoche (a serious threat to unseat old friend Nomar Garciaparra at the hot corner) are also dynamic young players to keep an eye on in 2008.

Pitcher Jason Schmidt will need to come back strong to prove that his contract isn’t the worst in the storied history of the Los Angeles Dodgers. He suffered a torn labrum last season, an injury which tends to have long term negative effects on pitchers. Even excluding Schmidt, the Dodgers have a solid front-end of the rotation. Brad Penny (he of the insanely hot actress girlfriend) and our old drinkin’ buddy Derek Lowe will be joined by Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda (career 3.69 ERA in Japan), and emerging ace Chad Billingsley. Phenomenal closer Takashi Saito is 38-years-old, but given his utter dominance in 2007, we can’t really see a steep decline from him in ‘08.

Projected Starters:
C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
2B Jeff Kent
3B Nomar Garciaparra
SS Rafael Furcal
LF Juan Pierre
CF Andruw Jones
RF Matt Kemp

SP Brad Penny
SP Derek Lowe
SP Chad Billingsley
SP Hiroki Kuroda
SP Jason Schmidt

San Francisco Giants (2007 record 71-91, 2007 Pythagorean 77-85):

2007 was a difficult year for one of Major League Baseball’s oldest and most storied franchises. A last place finish, a shamed superstar, a GM who can’t decide whether to rebuild or overspend on free agents, inflated housing costs, the television series “Monk”, all of these things plagued the city of San Francisco. Barry Bonds is gone; in 2008 he’ll either be playing elsewhere, retired, or in jail. His departure is not good news for this team, as they don’t have anything close to him in terms of offensive ability.

Newly acquired Aaron Rowand is looking like their best hitter by default, although I can’t figure out why they signed him to a 5-year deal. Joining Aaron in the lineup is a vortex of mediocrity, young and old. The offensive roster is a virtual Who’s Who of below-average baseball players. Seasoned veterans such as Randy Winn, Omar Vizquel, and Rich Aurilia (yup, still alive) will be joined by youngsters such as Dan Ortmeier and Kevin Frandsen. Frankly, this lineup will be terrible.

Luckily for the Giants, their pitching should be good enough to stave off a 100-loss turd of a season this year. Behind the unfortunately expensive Barry Zito, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are two of the most exciting young pitchers in the game, both with #1 ace potential. Noah Lowry and Kevin Correia can hold their own in the back end of the rotation.

Projected Starters:
C Benji Molina
1B Dan Ortmeier
2B Ray Durham
3B Kevin Frandsen
SS Omar Vizquel
LF Dave Roberts
CF Aaron Rowand
RF Randy Winn

SP Barry Zito
SP Matt Cain
SP Tim Lincecum
SP Noah Lowry
SP Kevin Correia

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Predicted 2008 Finish:
1) Colorado
2) Los Angeles
3) Arizona
4) San Diego
5) San Francisco

It will be a close battle between the top 3 teams there, but in the end, Colorado will have too much firepower, and their rotation will be better than most people think. The Dodgers’ young offense kicks into gear before Arizona’s can do the same. San Diego and San Francisco will be out of contention early.

NL West Offensive Player of the Year: Matt Holliday
NL West Pitcher of the Year: Brandon Webb
NL West Rookie of the Year: Franklin Morales

Top 10 NL West Prospects:
1) Andy LaRoche, 3B (LA)
2) Clayton Kershaw, SP (LA)
3) Franklin Morales, SP (COL)
4) Matt Antonelli, CF/2B (SD)
5) Angel Villalona, 3B (SF)
6) Jarrod Parker, SP (ARI)
7) Chase Headley, 3B (SD)
8) Hu Chin Lung, SS (LAD)
9) Ian Stewart, 3B (COL)
10) Scott Elbert, SP (LAD)