2008 NL East Preview
Cancel the season. The Mets have added the best pitcher in baseball. They’ve transformed their 2007 contenders to Vegas favorites. The rest of the division has faded away or moved laterally. But, wait! Not so fast, obnoxious-NYC-daily-rag-columnist! This race is not over.
Every team would love to add Johan Santana. Will it be enough to put the aging Mets over the top? With another season on the odometer of Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner and Pedro Martinez, their backups: Jeff Conine, Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa; will play a large role. A single injury to one of their ancient porcelin princesses will crack the shaky ice on which Omar Minaya has thrown his chips. Pretty much any doomsday-cliche works here, I guess it’s just salt in the wound at this point. Where the Phillies and Braves are lacking in top flight rotation talent, they make up for in balance and depth. Oh, and the Nationals and Marlins play the punching bags.
New York Mets
2007: Actual 88-74, Pythag 87-75
2008 Projected: 94-68
I really, really wanted to pick someone else to win the East. I wrote several versions of this column, one with a very weak case for the Phillies offense carrying them and another with the Braves possessing just enough depth to win. I think it will be heartbreak-close, but the Mets will pull it out. That is, if they don’t lose 11 of their last 16 and fold like a scared puppy that just peed on the rug, again.
Lineup:
SS Jose Reyes (S)
2B Luis Castillo (S)
3B David Wright (R)
CF Carlos Beltran (S)
1B Carlos Delgado (L)
LF Moises Alou (R)
RF Ryan Church (L)
C Brian Schneider (L)
I guess a 150 OPS+ and 34/5 SB/CS are only good enough for fourth in the MVP voting. Amazingly, David Wright‘s 2007 season was accepted with quiet aplomb. The New York media effect couldn’t put him over the top, even though he had sexier numbers than Jimmy Rollins at an important defensive position. He can’t be blamed for “the meltdown;” his best two months were August and September.
Perception of the other member of the Mets’ left side is skewed in the opposite direction. Jose Reyes collects accolades for his disruption on the basepaths, but his middling OBP and lack of power prevent his ascension into legitimate All-Stardom. Yes, he’s made two mid-summer classics, but it’s absurd that he stole some MVP votes from Wright in 2007. 78 is a lot of stolen bases, but Wright’s success rate was far better. I’d apologize for this “David Wright got robbed” tirade if it wasn’t true. Sorry, Mets fans, but you’ve got the third best shortstop in this division and Yunel Escobar has a fighting chance to move you down another notch. In fact, Escobar (.451) outslugged Reyes (.421) in 2007. Congrats, Jose, Cristian Guzman will never touch you.
Don’t expect as much from the rest of the infield. Luis Castillo and Carlos Delgado have seen better days. Brian Schneider and Church came at the cost of Lastings Milledge, but expectations are for Schneider to work on receiving. Alou should be league average in left and Beltran will earn every bit of his $13.5m.
CL Billy Wagner
RHRP Aaron Heilman
LHRP Pedro Feliciano
RHRP Matt Wise
LHRP Scott Schoenweis
RHRP Duaner Sanchez
When the inevitable catastrophic elbow explosion happens to Billy Wagner, the pen should be able to weather the storm. Heilman would slide into the closer’s role, which he and his 1.07 WHIP are qualified for, and solid lefty Pedro Feliciano would set-up. After that it’s righty Matt Wise (1.45 WHIP) and nearly cooked Scott Schoenweis. The long-anticipated return of Duaner Sanchez from a freak shoulder injury would do wonders to a thin but talented pen.
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Pedro Martinez
RHP John Maine
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP Orlando Hernandez
RHP Jorge Sosa
Pedro and El Duque should be treated as one starter, because they’re all but guaranteed to miss significant time. That means pressure on Maine and Perez to repeat their success in 2007. Jorge Sosa had one magical season in Atlanta, but other than that he has never had a league average ERA. Minaya has been rumored to be after Kyle Lohse. He’s no stud, but another option if Sosa struggles in place of Pedro or the Duke. After an amazing first half, John Maine’s August (6.32 ERA) and September (5.93) are worrisome.
This could be a great rotation, but the question marks are larger than Atlanta’s, Plan B is shaky, and there is no Plan C: Pelfrey isn’t ready (1.70 WHIP, 1.15 K/BB). There are two reasons the Mets will win this divison:
- Santana will tear through the NL like a Curt Schilling at an Old Country Buffet
- 2007 Oliver Perez (120 ERA+, 8.85 K/9) started the journey back to the unhittable 2004 version (145 ERA+, 10.97 K/9), if he splits the difference, watch out for the Mets.
Atlanta Braves
(2007: Actual 84-78, Pythag 89-73)
2008 Projected: 93-69, 1 GB
Some argue that juggernaut offenses are the key to regular season success. I say starting rotation depth cures the 162 game grind. Injuries, especially among pitchers, happen. Every time an ancient journeyman starter takes the hill because there’s noone else to go that day, I cringe and immediately blame the general manager for a failure to anticipate the unexpected. Uh, yeah, I guess that makes sense. The 2008 Braves will not have a high scoring offense, but they will hit and they have more rotation depth than anyone.
RHP John Smoltz
RHP Tim Hudson
LHP Tom Glavine
LHP Chuck James
RHP Jair Jurrjens
RHP Buddy Carlyle
LHP Mike Hampton
LHP Jo-Jo Reyes
RHP Anthony Lerew
That, dear reader, is a pile of arms. There are throbbing uncertainties in Glavine, Hampton, and the kids; but the volume of starters available to the Braves is astounding. Jurrjens wasn’t spectacular in seven starts for the Tigers and may require some time in AAA. Jo-Jo Reyes averaged about a strikeout per inning in the minors, so he’ll get another shot after struggling (69 ERA+, 0.9 K/BB, 50.2 IP) in 2007. It may take a few months, but they’ll figure out the best five and come on strong in the second half.
CL Raphael Soriano
LHRP Mike Gonzalez
RHRP Peter Moylan
RHRP Manny Acosta
LHRP Will Ohman
LHRP Royce Ring
The bullpen doesn’t have so much depth, but Soriano is solid at the end. Hear that, Bavasi?! If you don’t remember, Bill Bavasi traded Soriano for Horacio Ramirez (7.16 ERA) in the 2006 off-season. Mike Gonzalez may or may not be back from 2007 elbow-ligament-replacement surgery. And since I’m sick of giving Tommy John getting all that free press, that’s how I will refer to that procedure. Peter Moylan‘s return from the scrap heap is worth mentioning, ambiguous Wikipedia wording aside:
1997, After failing to make the Major Leagues, Moylan left the Major League Baseball system. He then took a job as a pharmaceutical salesman in Australia. At a certain point Moylan improved his pitching and began his comeback.
That certain point was the World Baseball Classic in 2006. Sounds fishy to me. He’s a rare commodity: a sidearmer with some heat. Serious regression should be expected; he caught a lot of people by surprise in 2007. The lefties are led by Will Ohman with Royce Ring and newly aquired Jeff Ridgway. None of those are fantastic options so Gonzalez’s recovery is important.
Lineup:
2B Kelly Johnson (L)
SS Yunel Escobar (R)
1B Mark Teixeira (S)
3B Chipper Jones (S)
C Brian McCann (L)
RF Jeff Franceour (R)
CF Mark Kotsay (L)
LF Matt Diaz (R)
They’ve bid adieu to Andruw Jones and replaced him with Mark Kotsay. In name recognition and merchandise sales that’s a huge downgrade, but in actual offensive production Jones is only about 10% better, using career average OPS+. Defensively, Kotsay gets good jumps and takes good routes which make up for his average speed. The future in the outfield isn’t a big concern for new GM Frank Wren, because Jordan Schaefer (.294/.354/.477 in 106 G) had a breakout season in high-A. He’ll start at AA and may debut opening day 2009. Watch for 2007 draftee Jason Heyward as well. Edgar Renteria was shipped to Detroit for Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez, a nice package facilitated by continued Red Sox subsidization of Edgar’s contract. At least Theo the Gunslinger knew when to fold ‘em. Yunel Escobar (.326/.385/.451 in 319 major league at bats) was ready, and the job is his to lose.
The above illustrates Chipper Jones’ career, in games played and OPS+. It shows that he was an ironman for nine years, but the wear and tear caught up to him in 2003 and 2004. With a reduced workload he has regained his former dominance. He’s thirty-six, so a decline would be natural, but if he’s limited to 120 games he can play another three years. A contract year boost from Chipper or Mark Teixiera and a return to 2006 form from Brian McCann and this offense will be just fine to win in the National League.
Philadelphia Phillies
(2007: Actual 89-73, Pythag 87-75)
2008 Projected: 88-74, 6 GB
Dude, Pedro Feliz is not the answer. The ghost of Mike Schmidt has haunted the hot corner in Philly for a decade, turning likes of David Bell, Abraham Nunez and Wes Helms into quivering piles of ineptitude. Feliz’s range was best in the NL according to zone rating, but his historic ability to make outs is well documented. His .290 (!) career OBP is nothing short of terrifying.
SS Jimmy Rollins (S)
CF Shane Victorino (S)
2B Chase Utley (L)
1B Ryan Howard (L)
LF Pat Burrell (R)
RF Jayson Werth (R)/Geoff Jenkins (L)
3B Pedro Feliz (R)
C Carlos Ruiz (R)
The Phils return the second best offense in baseball (5.51 RPG) missing Aaron Rowand (123 OPS+) in center. The platoon combination of Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins has awesome potential. Hat tip to former Dewey’s House writer Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts. The offense is not the problem.
LHP Cole Hamels
RHP Brett Myers
RHP Kyle Kendrick
LHP Jamie Moyer
RHP Adam Eaton
Solid at the top, but fades quickly. While we were pointing and lauging at old man Charlie Manuel, he actually found a strength in Brett Myers at the end of the pen. Myers is being reluctantly dragged by the hair back into the rotation following the addition of Brad Lidge. There are a few unwritten chapters in this epic drama. Hamels will contend for the Cy Young, but the injury concerns around his 6’3″ 175 pound frame will persist for the rest of his career. In eleven of his twenty-eight starts in 2007, he threw between 110 and 121 pitches. Tread lightly.
Kyle Kendrick had an impressive rookie campaign marred by a disappointing loss in the NLDS to Colorado. Down 0-1 at home, the Phils needed KK to step up and he layed an egg (3.2 IP, 5 ER). Coming out strong will endear him to Manuel and cement his spot in the rotation. Don’t scoff at Jamie Moyer. He’ll take the ball for another 30+ starts at league average production. If the Phils could say the same about Adam Eaton, they’d be in decent shape. Unfortunately, an infusion of young talent isn’t close. Carlos Carrasco had a poor season at AA Reading after a solid first half in the FSL. Kyle Drabek has great stuff, but an elbow injury requiring ligament replacement surgery has halted his development until 2009. The upper minors is a barren wasteland outside of fringe LHP prospect Josh Outman.
CL Brad Lidge
RHRP Tom Gordon
LHRP J.C. Romero
RHRP Ryan Madson
RHRP Scott Mathieson
RHRP Clay Condrey
The Lidge rollercoaster has arrived. Astros’ GM Ed Wade lobbed a meatball to his former team, dealing the talented but inconsistent pitcher for Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary. Lidge’s inconsistency could soon force Myers back to the pen. After losing his closer’s job immediately in 2007, Lidge regained his form and role by midseason with a few minor hiccups along the way. He still strikes batters out at an high rate (11.82 K/9 in 2007) but allows baserunners (1.25 WHIP) and doesn’t “bear down” with runners on (.770 OPS with runners on versus .686 with bases empty).
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies made a run at the division. They should be no worse than third, considering the dreck that’s next. This is turning into a novel, so bear with me.
Florida Marlins
(2007: Actual 71-91, Pythag 72-90)
2008 Projected: 70-92, many GB
Rebuilding? To me, rebuilding happens after some success. The Marlins have bucked the trend and launched into full rebuilding-mode after finishing fifty games out of first. Low standards? Check. I understand that this was the only option, but Dontrelle Willis had far more value two years ago, and it was clear at that point that this wasn’t a playoff team. He should have been dealt long ago for much more, and the Marlins could be two years into this process. It will be a long time before there’s joy in South Florida; at least the return will have an immediate impact. Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Mike Rabelo will be contributors in 2008, whether they’re ready or not.
Rotation:
LHP Scott Olson
RHP Sergio Mitre
LHP Andrew Miller
RHP Ricky Nolasco
RHP Rick VandenHurk
LHP Mark Hendrickson
Ages: 24, 27, 23, 25, 23 and old man river Hendrickson at 34. There will be growing pains, but there will be progress. Josh Johnson is out until 2009 with ligament replacement surgery, and Anibal Sanchez has yet to throw off a mound after 2007 shoulder surgery. His ETA is mid-season at best. Olson was wildly inconsistent in 2007. The big lefty Miller is polished for his tender age, and would contend for ROY if he were eligible. If you’re wondering, the limits to rookie eligibility are 130 at-bats, 50 IP, or 45 days on a ML roster. Miller threw 64 innings in 2007.
Lineup:
CF Cameron Maybin (R)
RF Jeremy Hermida (L)
SS Hanley Ramirez (R)
1B Mike Jacobs (L)
2B Dan Uggla (R)
LF Josh Willingham (R)
3B Dallas McPherson (R)
C Mike Rabelo (S)
Only if I were running things. The irrational crush on stolen bases will cost the Marlin untold runs because manager Fredi Gonzalez will bat Hanley Ramirez first, twisting a stick in the eye of baseball nerds everywhere. His value isn’t in getting on base, but producing runs in the middle of the lineup. Every aspect of his offensive game improved in 2007.
This isn’t meant to be a projection. It is meant to illustrate how much Ramirez improved from 06 to 07. The 2008 column shows his production if the trend continued into 2008. It would be the best three-year improvement in the history of the game (I have no data to back that up), and unlikely, but if he continues at a rate half of which he showed he’ll still be among the top five players in baseball. He’s a butcher in the field, comfirmed by John Dewan’s zone rating (.786, last in NL). You may be interested to know that he’s superior to one shortstop measured by ZR, Captain Derek Jeter. Hanley’s OBP has been driven by hits, but he’s hit enough. The area of his offensive game that can be improved the most is his patience at the plate.
Maybin struggled (.143 BA) in a short stint in the bigs last year, but he’s a well-developed 20-year-old with power and speed. He’s surrounded by Hermida and Willingham in the outfield, both of whom where productive in 07. Willingham is ancient at 29 and his value has declined since moving from behind the plate. Rabelo, a native Floridian, has his first starting gig. He caught Miller a few times last season with Detroit.
CL Kevin Gregg
RHRP Justin Miller
RHRP Matt Lindstrom
LHRP Taylor Tankersley
RHRP Lee Gardner
RHRP Daniel Barone
The bullpen will miss Henry Owens, out for the first half after shoulder surgery. Kevin Gregg is the highest paid player on this team at $2.5 million. Wait, Craig Hansen has made more money than the highest paid Marlin? Actually, the bullpen isn’t as weak as you’d expect from a team with a payroll in the $15 million range. Miller had his best season last year (1.24 WHIP, 74 Ks, 61 IP) and the kids have some talent.
There’s a lot of potential in the starting eight, but the rotation lacks the experience and depth to contend. It won’t be pretty.
Washington Nationals
(2007: Actual 73-89, Pythag 71-91)
2008 Projected: 66-96, a bazillion GB
About a year ago, I wrote the Gnats team preview for Dewey’s House. I predicted 102 losses. They beat my prediction by 13 wins. Their bullpen was stronger than expected (3.81 ERA) and a couple of players (Shawn Hill, DaMeatHook) had good seasons. They open Nationals Park in 2008, which looks pretty average. Gee, was “Baseball Stadium” taken? The marketing guru behind “Nationals Park” needs to start smoking pot or something.
Rotation:
RHP John Patterson
RHP Shawn Hill
RHP Jason Bergmann
LHP Matt Chico
RHP Tim Redding
It appears that Patterson is fully recovered from elbow problems that have sidelined him since 2005. He threw 100 pitches February 9th with no pain. He was one of the top pitchers in the game in his last full season, and will earn less than $1 million this year. He’s got 4+ years of service, so the motivation of impending free agency should drive him. I think he’ll return to form. Hill had elbow and shoulder problems last year, as well as surgery in October to repair a torn labrum. That sentence has more red flags than a communist rally. Bergmann/Chico/Redding will eat some innings. The Nats success will be inversely proportional to number of starts Mike Bacsik (Back-zit?) gets.
Their minor league system is vastly improved under Jim Bowden. Baseball America sings his praises by launching them from 30th to 9th in their organizational rankings. 22 year old lefty Ross Detwiler could make an impact as soon as the second half of 2008, but their decision to bring him up for one appearance in 2007 is curious. First basemen Chris Marrero hit 14 homers in 54 games at Class A.
Lineup:
SS Cristian Guzman (S)
CF Lastings Milledge (R)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)
1B Dmitri Young (S)
RF Austin Kearns (R)
LF Wily Mo Pena (R)
2B Ronnie Belliard (R)
C Johnny Estrada (S)
This is an odd lineup. Beyond the lack of a true left handed hitter; vets like Nick Johnson, Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca don’t have starting jobs. PLoD (thanks, Capitol Improvement) was signed as a free agent before his implication in the Mitchell report and knee injury. Bowden must not expect much from LoDuca, because he subsequently nabbed Johnny Estrada and relegated Jesus Flores to Columbus. This post on a BBTF message board from a Brewers fan purporting to be in the know, on Estrada, “he is beyond toxic. He drinks nuclear waste for breakfast and pisses hate. That he is bi-lingual only means he can alienate twice as many people twice as fast.” Maybe he can room with Elijah Dukes?
Lopez was shopped all off-season for pitching, to no avail. He’ll be a $4 million backup. Nick Johnson is on his way back from a broken leg, but will have to win the job from Young. Zimmerman broke his hamate late in 2007, a bone injury notorious for lingering and taking away power.
CL Chad Cordero
RHRP Jon Rauch
RHRP Luis Ayala
RHRP Ryan Wagner
RHRP Jesus Colome
RHRP Saul Rivera
Again, no good left handed option. Detwiler could be the answer, but developing a 22 year old in a major league bullpen is stupid. It might work in brief ‘Joba Chamberlain‘ situations, but not over an entire season. Rauch and Cordero are good against lefties so it might work with smoke and mirrors.
The biggest problem is the injury concern at the top of the rotation. The Nats could run through 15-20 starters again before they figure anything out. They’ll be closer to my failed 102 loss prediction than their actual 89.
In Summary:
Mets 94-68
Braves 93-69
Phillies 88-74
Marlins 70-92
Gnats 66-96
Holy shit. You did some work? I wonder if you’ll actually contribute during the season, or if the other guy will do everything again. Go fuck yourself, fag.
I still can’t believe how quickly Maybin was rushed through the system by Detroit. He could really use another year in the minors.
yeah, i should have been clearer. I meant Maybin is well developed physically. As in, he scares me, but his baseball skills are a long way off.
And on second thought, it would be a huge mistake to bat him leadoff too.
Big John Studd sounds like he’s talking from experience…
But seriously, Zach, get another hobby.
Is that the best you guys can do? If you’re going to heckle someone, you could at least be a little creative.
You guys going to write anything in the next few months? I’m waiting breathlessly for four more previews.