As we prepare for tomorrow night’s 10 pm EST game (it’s officially sleep deprivation time), some notes regarding the team:

• Bobby Kielty was demoted to AAA Pawtucket, but he might actually decline the demotion and sign elsewhere if there is a major league team willing to give him a spot. After his Game 7 HR, this is one guy who should never need to pay for a drink in this town again.
• This, of course, indicates that Coco Crisp is staying put (for now). The general assumption seems to be that Jacoby Ellsbury will get most of the CF playing time, but I’m not totally convinced that it will play out this way for long…
• Josh Beckett is tentatively scheduled to return to the mound against Toronto on Sunday. He recently faced the Double-A Minnesota squad in an exhibition game, and breezed through 4 innings.
• Be careful what you wish for. When people pined for the J.D. Drew of old, I don’t think they were referring to his frailty. He’s missed a week with a sore back, and is it still uncertain as to whether he will play tomorrow night. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
• The surprise of spring training has been pitcher Bartolo Colon. His fastball has been consistently in the low 90’s, and he will be Pawtucket’s Opening Day starter this Thursday. Prove me wrong, big man.

  
  4/1 UPDATE:  J.D. Drew will play tonight.  No, this isn’t an April Fools joke.

Boston 1
Oakland 5

Rich Harden and the Oakland A’s bullpen treated the Boston Red Sox hitters like a disobedient child today: handcuffing them to the radiator and beating them mercilessly for 3 hours.

Oakland pitchers recorded 13 strikeouts and held the Sox to only 5 hits. The big offensive blast of the game was a 3-run shot by Emil Brown in the 3rd inning, but the story of this game is Harden, a guy who might be the best pitcher in the American League when healthy.

I managed to catch the first 4 innings of this game before leaving for work, and the sensation was akin to enduring waterboarding in Guantanamo Bay. I kicked, I screamed, I struggled, but in the end, my cries of despair were stifled by a cascade of cold reality: The Red Sox will actually lose some games this year.

This is what it feels like. Now I remember.

Notes:

• Jacoby Ellsbury’s day off was scheduled, it is not a function of his wall collision last night.
• The game was finished off by the familiar duo of Keith Foulke and Alan Embree, who combined for 2 scoreless innings. Foulke especially looked impressive, perhaps angry that I trashed him yesterday. Yes, I’m sure that’s it.
• David Aardsma was impressive, pitching 1.2 scoreless and striking out 3. Kyle Snyder might consider polishing up his resume.
• Manny Ramirez continues to stay hot, hitting a mammoth blast off of Harden in the 6th inning. Manny had 8 total bases on 3 extra base hits on the 2-game trip.
• Julio Lugo enjoyed his trip to Japan, going 3-6 with a walk and a run scored. If only all of his at-bats could occur on turf…

In his triumphant return to Tokyo Dome, Daisuke Matsuzaka continued where he left the 2007 season. We had great visions of an trend-setting performance, spurred by the emotion of the return. We saw not the dominant, overpowering starter in his former Far East glory, but the same old inconsistency. The Oakland lineup exploited his control issues, but couldn’t land the knockout blow - stranding six in the first three frames. Despite the early difficulties, Matsuzaka threw at least four excellent change ups to Jack Cust and stranded the last seven he faced. It was a start that looks better on paper than it did live: 5 IP, 2 H, 6 K, 2 ER.

Joe Blanton pounded the strike zone until tiring after 90 pitches in the sixth. Ramirez roped a two run double down the left field line and Brandon Moss, filling in for J.D. Drew’s latest excuse, added the go-ahead run. The top of the lineup did its job all morning, and at least in the sixth, the middle obliged.

Taking a one run lead to the bottom of the seventh, Terry Francona lobbed a beach ball to Bob Geren via Kyle Snyder. The obsession with inning slots for relievers is the last hurdle a forward-thinking ballclub faces. We’ve successfully moved away from “small-ball” misconceptions, but relievers are still used prehistorically. Everyone was available, and the fifth option on the depth chart was selected. Genius. The “saving XYZ for tomorrow” argument holds no weight: there may be no need for an elite reliever tomorrow, then there are four meaningless days.  Snyder surrendered two runs in the blink of an eye, and it was bleak until the ninth inning Moss heroics.

Game Two: Lester - Harden

Rich Harden still has a chance to be awesome. He’s 26 and perpetually fragile, but when healthy he’s among the best in baseball. Of course, he has had exactly one healthy season: four years ago.

He insists he’s full strength, but that’s no different than three of the previous four springs. He’s thrown 17 innings this March and given up 9 ER on 20 hits and 7 walks while striking out 13. Those results are poor by any standards. The A’s are hoping he comes out blazing to pump up his trade value. There’s no reason to hold on to him and wait for an injury.

Ostensibly he can be had, but dealing with Billy Beane is dangerous by nature. Add the health risks of Harden and I’d rather dance on needles outside a methadone clinic. Hank, you can have him.

Game One, Tuesday, March 25 6:05AM EST, NESN/ESPN2
Daisuke Matsuzaka at Joe Blanton

So, instead of CNBC or Good Morning America, we get to eat our breakfast, run on our treadmills, and shine our shoes to a live regular season baseball game on Tuesday. The morning start time isn’t ideal, but it could be a lot worse — at least the game is during waking hours, however barely. Anything to get me away from Bear Stearns news.

The Athletics are cast as the Washington Generals to our Harlem Globetrotters. Between the whole “world series champion” thing and the Daisuke-Okajima factor, Bob Geren must feel like the ugliest girl at the dance. He’ll throw Joe Blanton to the clutches of reinvigorated J.D. Drew.

Blanton didn’t walk anyone (1.57 BB/9) and didn’t give up many home runs (0.63) in 2007. He also didn’t strike many batters out (5.48 K/9) or get many ground balls (47%). Therefore, his results (106 ERA+) were approximately what we would expect. If anything, I’d project him to improve slightly due to that stellar walk rate.

He busts righties in with his slider for swings and misses, but throws a curve and change nearly as often — around 15% of the time. He’s got four good pitches, none great.

Game Two, Wednesday, March 26 6:05AM EST, NESN/ESPN2
Jon Lester at Rich Harden

Another half-assed analysis coming Tuesday.

Pitch data from Josh Kalk.

Well, since their 747 did land a few hours ago, and the media frenzy is in full effect, the more appropriate question is: who is in Japan? Well, there’s the 127 million Japanese. In addition to this, there’s the (now fully compensated) Boston Red Sox.

After the most recent roster move of sending Bartolo Colon down to the minor league camp, the roster for Japan had been set. Let’s take a look at the 30 players making the journey.

C:
Jason Varitek
Kevin Cash
Dusty Brown

1B:
Kevin Youkilis
Sean Casey

2B/SS:
Dustin Pedroia
Julio Lugo
Alex Cora
Jed Lowrie

3B:
Mike Lowell

OF:
Coco Crisp
J.D. Drew
Jacoby Ellsbury
Manny Ramirez
Bobby Kielty
Brandon Moss

DH:
David Ortiz

SP:
Daisuke Matsuzaka (Opening Day Starter)
Jon Lester (Game #2 Starter)
Clay Buchholz (Exhibition Starter)
Tim Wakefield (Exhibition Starter)

RP:
Julian Tavarez
Kyle Snyder
Bryan Corey
David Aardsma
Manny Delcarmen
Javier Lopez
Mike Timlin
Hideki Okajima
Jonathan Papelbon

Notes:

• Out of the 30 players listed above, only 28 will be active for the 2 regular season games. The 2 inactive pitchers will likely be Tim Wakefield and Clay Buchholz, who are scheduled to start in exhibition games prior to the matchup with Oakland.
• Curt Schilling is with the team in Japan, but is of course not available (60-Day DL).
• One name that might stick out here is top prospect Jed Lowrie, but the odds of him actually seeing time in the Oakland games is microscopic.
• Lowrie, along with Bobby Kielty and Kevin Cash, are not on the 40-man roster. Lowrie is certain to be sent to AAA after the trip, and Kevin Cash is certain to make the big team. Kielty’s fate is more uncertain, and depends on a variety of factors, not least of which is Coco Crisp’s summer address.

The first Japanese exhibition matchup takes place tomorrow (Friday) night at 11:05 PM, against the Hanshin Tigers. Can you think of anything more fun than closing out a bar whilst watching the Sox?

Neither can I.

UPDATE: Multiple sources now indicated that the standoff is over, the coaches will be paid, and the Sox will indeed go to Japan.

Domo arigato, Mr. Selig.

“Who’s that creepy guy lurking in the corner?”

“Oh, just a friend of mine.”

“Is that…Matt Belisle! OHMIGOD!”

Maybe in Cincinnati. The rest of the country has little reason to pay attention to a twenty-eight-year-old fighting for a spot in the Reds’ rotation. His triple crown numbers were underwhelming: 8-9, 5.32 ERA, 125 Ks, 177 IP. There are sexier candidates named Bailey and Cueto. Hell, nobody in Cincy gets ink unless Dusty is drooling his latest idiotic misconceptions.

Strangely, Belisle has popped up a lot recently. His name has been near the top of random stat sorts that distract me from my actual work. He is the most illustrative part of this article at Baseball Analysts. My dreams are haunted by Marge Schott whispering “Belisle…Belisle” and I wake up in cold sweats. I can’t escape him!

He was almost exactly league average in K% (16.21) and GB% (41.75) and FB% (36.3) in 2007. The one thing he did well was not walking people (2.18 BB/9). Actually, he was really good at not walking people. That rate was 18th in baseball last year, between two guys named Dan Haren and Johan Santana. If he was so average to slightly above, why was his ERA+ only 88?

According to Rich Lederer, he is part of the group of pitchers that “live on the edge with very little margin for error.” I contend that on that edge he was hurt by bad luck more than the rest of that group, which includes guys like Mark Buehrle, Tom Gorzellany and Josh Towers.

Two things broke against him:

• Only Kip Wells had a greater negative difference in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and ERA, indicating he was significantly hurt by poor defense.

• He gave up too many dingers, but Great American Ballpark had something to do with that. In 2007, he allowed 17 at home and 9 on the road in only 7 fewer innings.

GAB has been among the top three in Home Run Park Factor since its opening. That undoubtedly has something to do with the Reds’ crappy staffs, but we’re knee deep in a chicken-and-egg problem now. My guess: it’s not kosher. Reds pitchers were bad, but they were also hurt by the park. According to all his rate stats, Belisle isn’t bad, he’s average, and his tendency to give up bombs at home can be attributed to park effects, at least in part.

I harbor no delusions. Belisle will be never be a top tier pitcher, but he can and will contribute. Don’t forget, to be average you have to beat half the guys out there. Get him out of Cincy or in front of a good defense and he’ll thrive.

I love you: Fangraphs and The Hardball Times

Once considered once of the top relief prospects in baseball, Craig Hansen now finds himself in an all-too familiar position: on the bus to AAA.  Still only 24-years-old, the right-hander didn’t look good at all in his brief stay in big league camp, garnering an ERA of 9.00 in six appearances, including 7 walks in 7 innings.

The Red Sox were hoping for an observable improvement from Hansen this spring, months after undergoing surgery to correct his sleep apnea (an affliction which was theorized to have had a negative effect on his performance).  Instead, it was a bit more of the same: an inability to command his stuff.  As a result, the jet to Japan will leave with the likes of Bryan Corey and Craig Breslow serving as the auxiliary arms, instead of the high-priced first round draft pick from 2005.

Hansen did show some flashes of brilliance in the second half of last season while pitching for Pawtucket. We can only hope that it wasn’t a fluke.

The current installment of the Doug Mirabelli era was short-lived, as the Red Sox release the catcher only months after signing him to a 1-year deal.

Of course, the main question on our minds is: who will back up Jason Varitek this season?

There are three serious candidates, none of whom is a staggering improvement over Mirabelli.

1) Kevin Cash
Pro: Nice defensive catcher, handled Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball very well in a brief trial last season.
Con: One of the worst offensive hitters in modern MLB history. I say this without the slightest modicum of hyperbole: Kevin Cash is the worst hitter in the Major Leagues. He has a career OPS+ of 26, and his numbers at the plate are pretty similar to those of Roger Clemens. Remember high school? Picture the best hitter on your high school team. Yeah, him. That guy could probably quit his job at AutoZone, grab a bat, and outhit Kevin Cash after years of dormancy.

2) Dusty Brown
Pro: Also good defensively. Experience handling Charlie Zink, Boston’s resident career minor league knuckleball artist. Probably a better hitter than Cash.
Con: Still not very good offensively. No Major League experience. Only 1 season above Single-A ball. Overmatched in very brief AAA trial last year.

3) George Kottaras:
Pro: Had a .900 OPS on the road in AAA last year. Most certainly the best hitter of the three. Possible heir to Varitek if he improves his game.
Con: Not known for his defense. Struggled at the plate in home games (oddly). No MLB experience.

A third and less likely option is that there might be a trade in place. Coco Crisp is still dangling out there, and could be moved between now and opening day in Japan.

This move seems a little odd to me, as Doug (even with all of his flaws) seems better fit to handle the job in 2008, more so than the three guys listed above. Kottaras is certainly the most promising of the three, but he could use another year in AAA, to help gauge whether or not he will be a suitable replacement for Varitek.

After the injury to Curt Schilling, and after witnessing the recent back issues of Josh Beckett (which may or may not become a nagging issue this season), it’s becoming clear that a lot will be expected of 24-year-old left-hander Jon Lester.

Lester, who has only 144 major league innings under his belt, is a promising hurler whose long-term success will depend on his ability to strengthen his one Achilles Heel: control. Lester has never been a pinpoint control guy, even in his dominant minor league years. Lets take a look at his walk rate over the years:

2003 (A): 3.74 per game (106 innings)
2004 (A+): 3.70 per game (90 innings)
2005 (AA): 3.46 per game (148 innings)
2006 (AAA/MLB): 4.79 per game (128 innings)
2007 (AAA/MLB): 3.98 per game (154 innings)

Graphically, the trend looks a little something like this:

Apparently, we have an aberration here. Jon’s walk totals in 2006, split between AAA and the majors, are quite a bit higher than at any other season in his professional baseball career. Was there anything going on that would have impacted Jon’s performance in 2006? Well, first and foremost, he was pitching with cancer. Secondly, he was arguably rushed to the majors, which could certainly inflate the walk rates of young pitchers in their initial MLB outings.

The good news is Jon’s control seemed to improve quite a bit in 2007, after he beat cancer and got some more AAA innings under his belt. His MLB ERA+ was slightly above average at 104.

What can we expect from him in 2008?  Tough to tell, as he has yet to pitch more than 154 innings in a season.  He’ll be a full-time starter from day one (possibly even starting on Opening Day in Japan), and it will be a schedule unlike any other he’s experienced.  that being said, I see his walk rate improving, and as a result, I see his overall performance improving.

I’ll have a little fun with this, and try to predict his exact season.  The ol’ Magic Eight Ball says…

13-9, 179 IP, 139 K, 78 BB, 4.27 ERA.

Josh Beckett left his spring training start today before it began, with back spasms.  It doesn’t sound like much, but something to keep an eye on.  There’s no reason to push him and I like his cautious attitude.

Dusty Baker ran his mouth dis mornin’ on a buncha stuff: swingin’, aggressivocity and cows were speaked on.

Some hi-lites:

“Most of the time you’ve got to put handcuffs on a young guy to keep him from swinging. (The young players are) playing good, real good. I’d like to see them more aggressive.

“I really, really hate the called third strike. I hate that. You’re guessing and you ain’t ready to hit.”

“Dunn’s not a kid. He’s not old, but he ain’t a kid,” Baker said. “I bet you he gets better. He’s from Texas, right? There’s not a cow in Texas if he don’t get better.”

On Joey Votto, whose primary skill according to Keith Law is his plate discipline:

“He needs to swing some more. I talked to him about that. … I’d like to see him more aggressive.”

He added:

B-e a-g-g-r-e-s-s-i-v-e!

(I wish.)

The Globe is reporting that Jonathan Papelbon has been signed to a $775,000 contract for 2008, which will take him to his first arbitration year in 2009.   The deal dispels the small dark cloud which gathered over Fort Myers after some acrimonious comments were made (see below).

Agents and union reps across the league grin silently, as yet another precedent is set.

From Boston.com

“It’s a tough situation for me right now,” Papelbon said. “I feel like with me being at the top of my position, I feel like that (salary) standard needs to be set and I’m the one to set that standard and I don’t think that the Red Sox are really necessarily seeing eye to eye with me on that subject right now.” (emphasis added)

That sounds a lot like an MLBPA memo.  Let him go to arbitration, then pay him.

You signed up for this gig, man.

What was the alternative for MacPhail? Cave to Markakis’ demands? That’s not a good precedent to set. Players enter the system knowing they may be underpaid until arbitration. Maybe next time he’ll improve slower.

MacPhail termed the contract situation with Markakis “regrettable, but not uncommon.”

Markakis, however, was miffed. He left the team training complex long before the 5 p.m. deadline, but earlier in the day he told The Baltimore Sun, “That’s just how the Orioles feel. I don’t have much of a choice. I’m just going to have to deal with it.”

Right, so stop whining about it and get back to playing pepper or shagging flies.

The American League Central has a bit of everything: home-grown favorites, flashy acquisitions, wannabe pretenders, rebuilding cowards and perennial doormats. Can the status quo Indians hold off the influx of Tiger talent? Has Bill Smith already lost his job? Can Trey Hillman lead the young Royals to the brink of .500? Who’s crazier: Ozzie Guillen or Kenny Williams? These are the questions that surround the Central.

Cleveland Indians - 2007 Actual 96-66, Pythag 92-70

Eighty billion. According to my estimates, that’s how many times someone said “if it ain’t broke…” in Indians front office meetings over the last year. There’s truth in cliches; ninety-six wins and a 48-24 record in the division are no fluke. The Tribe missed the World Series by a game and return the same team, plus a few pieces, in 2008. Be afraid.

Lineup
CF Grady Sizemore
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
DH Travis Hafner
C Victor Martinez
1B Ryan Garko
LF Dave Delucci (L) / Jason Michaels (R)
SS Jhonny Peralta
RF Franklin Gutierrez
3B Casey Blake

The lineup is not without questions. Pronk had a down season, and they need him to rebound. A boost from old acquaintance Andy Marte - out of options and without a starting job - will take some of the pressure off. He’ll get an opportunity to win the gig from Casey Blake, who can also play first and a bit of outfield. Infielder Jamey Carroll and Kelly Shoppach round out a talented bench.

Bullpen
RHP Joe Borowski (Closer)
RHP Rafael Betancourt
RHP Masahide Kobayashi
RHP Jensen Lewis
LHP Rafael Perez
LHP Aaron Fultz
RHP Tom Mastny

Borowski will toe the line, but his safety net is 225 pound test. In 2007, Fat Joe got the sexy save numbers, but the Rafael “The Red Turtle” Betancourt contributed far more (5.38 vs. 1.36 WPA) in actual win probability. Kobayashi is here to slide into the setup role when Borowski flames out, between laying waste to local hot dog carts. Lewis (29.3 IP, 7 ER, 34 SO, 10 BB) and Perez (60 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 62 SO, 15 BB) round out the second best ‘pen (Angels) in the AL.

Rotation
LHP C.C. Sabathia
RHP Fausto Carmona
RHP Jake Westbrook
RHP Paul Byrd
LHP Cliff Lee
LHP Jeremy Sowers
LHP Adam Laffey

The attention is squarely on Sabathia’s broad shoulders after he wiped his ass with the Indians’ latest attempt at a contract extension. Just days after Johan swam laps in a mountain of Wilpon cash, Mark Shapiro scrooged C.C. with a 4 year, $68 million deal. This, for a pitcher coming off a Cy Young season at 26 with the free agency holy land a season away. More than low-balling, that offer might be pathetic enough for Carsten Charles to cut Marky Mark out of the bidding entirely. The timing is most egregious. Santana signed on Feb 2 and by the 4th Sabathia had the Tribe’s “offer.” Shapiro isn’t stupid, so he must not be willing to make a commitment in the $120 million range. If Sabathia stays healthy, he’ll be due at least Santana money in 2009. He’s said he won’t negotiate during the season. Let the speculation begin!

As good as the ace was in 2007, Fausto Carmona nearly matched him. Skinny on the strikeouts, he gets by with his power sinker and 64.3 GB%, leading the American League. Don’t get too excited, his IP jumped from 74 to 214, so consider him a major injury risk. If he manages to stay healthy and cut down on some of the walks he’ll make the Indians top two the best in the league, en route to the ALCS and a World Series appearance. I hate to say it, but the Indians are preseason favorites. If Fausto repeats and one of the Lee/Sowers/Laffey group proves competent, the Indians will be the best team in baseball.

Detroit Tigers - 2007 Actual 88-74, Pythag 90-72

Lineup
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
3B Miguel Cabrera
DH Gary Sheffield
RF Magglio Ordonez
1B Carlos Guillen
SS Edgar Renteria
LF Jacque Jones
C Ivan Rodriguez

Edit: I can’t believe I forgot Cabrera above.

Experts tout the Tigers lineup like it will cure all that ails their pitching staff. That will not be the case. Five years ago they may have scored 1000 runs; now, all but Granderson and Cabrera are on the wrong side of 32. Gary Sheffield’s OPS+ trend is going in the wrong direction (162, 141, 137, 107, 120) and he’s 39. Magglio Ordonez had a career year, but it looks like an outlier. Players don’t usually sustain career highs in their 30s.

The Tigers will field a group of professional hitters, but there will be natural decline.

Bullpen
RHP Todd Jones (Closer)
RHP Fernando Rodney
LHP Bobby Seay
RHP Jason Grilli
RHP Zach Miner
LHP Tim Byrdak
RHP Yorman Bazardo

Somebody hire Joel Zumaya a moving crew. A sixty pound box fell on his right shoulder while escaping California wildfires last fall, landing the Tigers bullpen in doubt. He hasn’t begun throwing, so a midseason return is optimistic. In a move reminiscent of a Theo Epstein “buckshot at the bullpen monster,” Matt Mantei was brought in on a minor league deal. Unfortunately, this one is about five seasons too late. Lefty Bobby Seay broke out last year, but is relatively ineffective against righthanded batters (.707/.545 OPS vs. RHB/LHB). Someone needs to take some of the pressure off of Rodney until Zumaya returns.

Rotation
RHP Justin Verlander
LHP Dontrelle Willis
RHP Jeremy Bonderman
LHP Nate Robertson
LHP Kenny Rogers

The biggest question is Willis’ transition to the American League. Did Vegas (wins over/under 93.5) notice that he was awful last year? Any decline from his 83 ERA+ and 1.58 WHIP will be cause for a demotion to rookie ball. Bonderman should be healthy, but Robertson has had exactly one above average season and Rogers is 44! This team just isn’t. that. good.

Chicago White Sox - 2007 Actual 72-90, Pythag 67-95

As bad as the White Sox were in 2007, Bill James and Pythagoras say they overachieved.

Lineup
CF Jerry Owens
SS Orlando Cabrera
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermain Dye
LF Nick Swisher
C A.J. Pierzynski
3B Josh Fields
2B Danny Richar

Settle down, Kenny. You’ve made too many acquisitions in the wrong places, and now you’ve got a mess on your hands. Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez didn’t leave his family behind to ride the pine, but he’s third on the depth chart at second base. Veteran and Guillen favorite Juan Uribe will battle with Richar. Example number 2,431 that Ozzie is an idiot: Juan Uribe stole one base last year, and was caught nine times.

“Nine times.”

The outfield is more crowded than Starbucks on free “full body” latte day. New acquisition Carlos Quentin is the fourth outfielder unless Owens bombs, forcing Swisher to center. Oh, and Joe Crede doesn’t have a spot or any trade value. Beautifully executed, Professor Williams.

Bullpen
RHP Bobby Jenks (Closer)
RHP Scott Linebrink
RHP Octavio Dotel
LHP Matt Thornton
RHP Mike MacDougal
LHP Boone Logan
RHP Nick Masset

You should recognize some of these names. Additions Linebrink and Dotel were had for a mere $30 million. A bit high, but maybe worth the premium if its going to put you over the top. Wait, does this put the White Sox over the top? Absolutely not. Terrible, terrible moves. Linebrink is on a four year deal, and is no longer the lights-out reliever he was in 2005 (210 ERA+). His strikeouts and his home runs allowed went in the wrong directions last year. At the end of that deal he’ll be dead weight.

Rotation
LHP Mark Buehrle
RHP Javier Vasquez
LHP John Danks
RHP Jose Contreras
RHP Gavin Floyd
RHP Lance Broadway

They subtracted the overrated but serviceable Jon Garland and added Gavin Floyd. Will the Danks/Contreras/Floyd/Broadway group contribute 90 quality starts? That would be 540 IP, or 135 each. Not a chance. Danks and Contreras will struggle to be average, and Broadway was figured out by minor leaguers in 2007. Buehrle and Vasquez come with their own issues, but the end of the rotation will doom the Pale Hose.

Kansas City Royals - 2007 Actual 69-93, Pythag 75-87

The Royals are going to surprise. Maybe not .500, but they’ll get to 75 wins, a six game improvement from 2007.

Rotation
RHP Gil Meche
RHP Brian Bannister
RHP Zack Greinke
RHP Brett Tomko
LHP Mike Maroth
LHP Jorge De La Rosa

The wild card is Greinke. Troubled colleagues Rick Ankiel and Oliver Perez have treated their complexes, and if the end of 2007 (7 GS, 34 IP, 31 SO, 1.85 ERA) is any indication, my namesake will continue the trend. While Meche turned Dayton Moore from goat to genius, Bannister is unlikely to repeat. His 4.20 K/9 will only fly with a ground ball rate better than his 42% in 2007. Luke Hochevar, the kid that was drafted three times and only settled for first overall, should be a factor by year end. This won’t be a tough rotation to break into.

Bullpen
RHP Joakim Soria (Closer)
RHP Yasuhiko Yabuta
LHP Ron Mahay
LHP Jimmy Gobble
LHP John Bale
RHP Joel Peralta
RHP Ryan Braun

This is Ryan Z. Braun. Ryan J. Braun plays for the Brewers. I never thought I’d have to deal with another Bobby Jones situation, especially with a less generic name. Unfortunately, the Royals don’t play the Brewers in the regular season, but you can check out the March 8th tuneup for some hot Braun-on-Braun action.

Soria had a nice rookie campaign (9.78 K/9, 0.942 WHIP, 17 S). He mixes in a slow curve (average speed 73 mph) and rare change (83mph) off his average fastball (92 mph). With three solid pitches I wonder why he has never been given an opportunity as a starter. He threw a perfect game in the Mexican Winter League just days after being taken in the Rule 5 draft. Another Santana-type Rule 5 triumph? Probably not, but another example of the importance of that draft.

35 year-old Yabuta will try to replace David Riske, who, in 2007, gave up too many hits and walks (1.26 WHIP) to maintain a 2.45 ERA. Yabuta has been consistently good the last four years in Japan, but projecting him is voodoo soothsaying at best.

Lineup
CF David DeJesus
LF Mark Teahen
1B Billy Butler
RF Jose Guillen
3B Alex Gordon
DH Ross Gload
C John Buck
2B Mark Grudzielanek
SS Tony Pena, Jr.

If the kids make some strides, this will be a decent run scoring team. I think they’ll crush David Pinto’s 4.82 estimate. John Buck, despite decent power (.429 SLG), has never shown patience (.308 OBP) or an ability to make contact (.222 BA). He’s not a starter in big-market baseball. 2008 will be the first step toward .500 in KC.

Minnesota Twins - 2007 Actual 79-83, Pythag 79-83

The Mississippi will flow with tears. Torii Hunter has signed with LAnaheim. Johan Santana has made his journey into the sunset, fetching a group of solid, not spectacular, prospects. Many have insisted this wasn’t enough, Smith should have held his cards or folded early. In reality, he had no choice. The player held too much power with his no-trade clause and ability to block an in-season deal. The real blame should fall on Terry Ryan, who sacrificed future flexibility to sign Johan to a 4/40M deal before 2005. Considering all factors, Smith did pretty well. He held out as long as he could, but recognized the price was falling and pulled the trigger. The alternative, Johan heading into the season as a Twin, would be an enormous failure.

Rotation
LHP Francisco Liriano
RHP Scott Baker
RHP Boof Bonser
RHP Livan Hernandez
RHP Kevin Slowey

The dramatic improvement in ligament-replacement surgery has changed the game since Dr. Frank Jobe pioneered the procedure in 1974. Now, pitchers with elbow injuries make full recoveries 93% of the time. The Twins insist Liriano is fully recovered, but I’ll file that under “I’ll believe it when I see it.” Even with The Prodigy at full strength, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser and Kevin Slowey will be responsible for three-fifths of the starts. They weren’t good last year and the status quo won’t cut it. An improvement may come from Bonser, who has good stuff and is reportedly in the best shape of his career. The jury is out on how a bit of extra heft effects pitchers. Certainly good conditioning is positive, but durability may be sacrificed. He will be a good case study.

Bullpen
RHP Joe Nathan (closer)
RHP Pat Neshek
RHP Matt Guerrier
RHP Jesse Crain
LHP Dennys Reyes
RHP Juan Rincon

The bidding on Nathan will begin in 5…4…3…. He’s a premier closer and a number of teams with playoff hopes are shaky at the end of the pen. I can see Arizona, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and the Mets involved. After a dominant first half, Neshek struggled beyond July 24th. In 21 IP, he gave up 22 hits and walked 11 for a 6.23 ERA. Caveat emptor. Jessie Crain is recovering from a torn labrum and is 80% as of Feb 21, according to Rotoworld. Guerrier may be closing by June.

Lineup
CF Carlos Gomez
C Joe Mauer
LF Delmon Young
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel
2B Brendan Harris
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

The revamped Twins lineup welcomes Gomez, Young, Harris, Lamb and Everett. 55% turnover will make waves in what has been one of the most consistent rosters in baseball over the last decade. It will take me two weeks to get used to Torii in an Angels uni. Young is poised to breakout; I’m taking the over on all his projections. ZiPS has him at 4.9 RC/27. Gomez is overrated, his speed will be valuable, but he hasn’t shown the patience to lead off. I take him in the AL Central ROY below for lack of a better choice.

The fallout from Johan will hurt for years. The bottom line is, an agent wielding a no-trade clause is a death sentence for a front office. Even moreso when based on postseason voting, where a team is forced to either root against its own player or swallow the bitter pill of an NTC. In this case, the Twins could have sent Johan to Seattle for Adam Jones, but he would have blocked the deal faster than Dusty Baker ruins pitchers. It would be interesting to analyze the cost in dollars to the Twins of Johan’s NTC, but that’s a task for another day.

______________________________

Predictions:
Indians 100-62
Tigers 85-77
Royals 75-87
White Sox 74-88
Twins 68-94

That’s right, the Royals will finish ahead of the White Sox. You read it here. Their young lineup will catalyze around Alex Gordon, while Ozzie Guillen will continue to raise the bar for crazy. The Indians will be nothing short of awesome, and the Tigers will disappoint.

AL Central Top Hitter: Travis Hafner
AL Central Top Pitcher: Carsten Charles Sabathia
AL Central Rookie of the Year: Carlos Gomez
Angel Berroa Award: John Buck

Papelbon’s dance of jubilation in Denver doesn’t seem too long ago, but here we are again.  I will add, not a moment too soon, because this winter absolutely sucks.  Last night, at 7:15 PM Eastern Time, I was watching the Red Sox on NESN, with a cold Harpoon IPA in my hand and a raging erection in my pants.  The Patriots had an outstanding season, the Celtics are in the midst of one, and yet, last night was the happiest I’ve been since, well…October.

A couple of observations.

To my untrained eye, Twins sophomore hurler Kevin Slowey looks promising.  He was slapped around, yielding back-to-back home runs to Kevin Youkilis and Jason Varitek (save it for the season, big guy!), but he was featuring a sneaky ~93 MPH fastball, a pitch which should yield results when utilized with his excellent control.

Hideki Okajima’s “out pitch”, the hybrid split finger which brought the American League hitters to their knees in 2007, looked good in the few times it was thrown last night.  Jerry Remy noted that the team plans on budgeting Okajima’s usage a bit differently this year, to prevent the burn-out issues that occurred last September.

One guy to watch in Pawtucket this season is catcher George Kottaras.  The 24-year-old has a .900 OPS on the road in 2007, and a meager .211 BABIP at home (indicating an imminent upward correction in his offensive numbers).   Kottaras had a HR and a double last night, as he looks to recapture his status as a MLB catching prospect.