After the injury to Curt Schilling, and after witnessing the recent back issues of Josh Beckett (which may or may not become a nagging issue this season), it’s becoming clear that a lot will be expected of 24-year-old left-hander Jon Lester.

Lester, who has only 144 major league innings under his belt, is a promising hurler whose long-term success will depend on his ability to strengthen his one Achilles Heel: control. Lester has never been a pinpoint control guy, even in his dominant minor league years. Lets take a look at his walk rate over the years:

2003 (A): 3.74 per game (106 innings)
2004 (A+): 3.70 per game (90 innings)
2005 (AA): 3.46 per game (148 innings)
2006 (AAA/MLB): 4.79 per game (128 innings)
2007 (AAA/MLB): 3.98 per game (154 innings)

Graphically, the trend looks a little something like this:

Apparently, we have an aberration here. Jon’s walk totals in 2006, split between AAA and the majors, are quite a bit higher than at any other season in his professional baseball career. Was there anything going on that would have impacted Jon’s performance in 2006? Well, first and foremost, he was pitching with cancer. Secondly, he was arguably rushed to the majors, which could certainly inflate the walk rates of young pitchers in their initial MLB outings.

The good news is Jon’s control seemed to improve quite a bit in 2007, after he beat cancer and got some more AAA innings under his belt. His MLB ERA+ was slightly above average at 104.

What can we expect from him in 2008?  Tough to tell, as he has yet to pitch more than 154 innings in a season.  He’ll be a full-time starter from day one (possibly even starting on Opening Day in Japan), and it will be a schedule unlike any other he’s experienced.  that being said, I see his walk rate improving, and as a result, I see his overall performance improving.

I’ll have a little fun with this, and try to predict his exact season.  The ol’ Magic Eight Ball says…

13-9, 179 IP, 139 K, 78 BB, 4.27 ERA.