“Who’s that creepy guy lurking in the corner?”

“Oh, just a friend of mine.”

“Is that…Matt Belisle! OHMIGOD!”

Maybe in Cincinnati. The rest of the country has little reason to pay attention to a twenty-eight-year-old fighting for a spot in the Reds’ rotation. His triple crown numbers were underwhelming: 8-9, 5.32 ERA, 125 Ks, 177 IP. There are sexier candidates named Bailey and Cueto. Hell, nobody in Cincy gets ink unless Dusty is drooling his latest idiotic misconceptions.

Strangely, Belisle has popped up a lot recently. His name has been near the top of random stat sorts that distract me from my actual work. He is the most illustrative part of this article at Baseball Analysts. My dreams are haunted by Marge Schott whispering “Belisle…Belisle” and I wake up in cold sweats. I can’t escape him!

He was almost exactly league average in K% (16.21) and GB% (41.75) and FB% (36.3) in 2007. The one thing he did well was not walking people (2.18 BB/9). Actually, he was really good at not walking people. That rate was 18th in baseball last year, between two guys named Dan Haren and Johan Santana. If he was so average to slightly above, why was his ERA+ only 88?

According to Rich Lederer, he is part of the group of pitchers that “live on the edge with very little margin for error.” I contend that on that edge he was hurt by bad luck more than the rest of that group, which includes guys like Mark Buehrle, Tom Gorzellany and Josh Towers.

Two things broke against him:

• Only Kip Wells had a greater negative difference in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and ERA, indicating he was significantly hurt by poor defense.

• He gave up too many dingers, but Great American Ballpark had something to do with that. In 2007, he allowed 17 at home and 9 on the road in only 7 fewer innings.

GAB has been among the top three in Home Run Park Factor since its opening. That undoubtedly has something to do with the Reds’ crappy staffs, but we’re knee deep in a chicken-and-egg problem now. My guess: it’s not kosher. Reds pitchers were bad, but they were also hurt by the park. According to all his rate stats, Belisle isn’t bad, he’s average, and his tendency to give up bombs at home can be attributed to park effects, at least in part.

I harbor no delusions. Belisle will be never be a top tier pitcher, but he can and will contribute. Don’t forget, to be average you have to beat half the guys out there. Get him out of Cincy or in front of a good defense and he’ll thrive.

I love you: Fangraphs and The Hardball Times