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By Jimmy, 5/28/2008 8:48 am

In what has become an annual rite of spring, I have once again become categorically convinced that Mike Timlin should no longer be pitching for this team.

In years past, I have made similar assessments, typically before he strings together a handful of decent outings in low leverage situations, boosting his numbers and making my claims seem excessive.

.333/.382/.540

This is what hitters have done against Timlin thus far in 2008. He’s essentially turning every batter he faces into Stan Musial.

If I were to predict his fate in the current season, I’d say it will be the same as the prior year, and the year before that. Timlin’s ineffectiveness will lead to him being used in lower leverage situations, garbage innings, and he’ll be OK there. His numbers will normalize a bit, to the point where it appears that he can still be a useful piece of the bullpen puzzle. And the vicious circle will continue to spin.

Matsuzaka Injured

I’ll take “Exactly What This Team Doesn’t Need” for $100, Alex. No word yet on how bad the injury is. The term used to describe it is “shoulder fatigue“. Christ…that can mean anything, can’t it?

Manny on the Cusp of #500

If you didn’t need a reason to stay up late for the West Coast games before, you have one now. Manny Ramirez hit HR #499 last night, and is now on the brink of becoming the 24th player in Major League history to reach the 500 HR plateau. I, for one, can’t wait until he does it, because it appears that the whole thing has been affecting him.

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By Jimmy, 5/23/2008 10:54 am

I’ve had a few days to digest a little.

There is a story you heard everywhere this week, at least as far as baseball goes. In August, 2006 when the rest of the season was falling apart for the Red Sox, one of their top prospects, Jon Lester, was scratched from a start with a sore back. After a week of testing (orginially, the back soreness was thought to be a by-product of a car crash), it was announced that Lester had a treatable form of lymphoma.

Less than a year later, he toed the rubber at Jacobs Field, and won. Fourteen months after his diagnosis, he got the win in the clinching game of the 2007 World Series. Twenty-two months after he was told he had cancer, Lester threw a no hitter against the Kansas City Royals, being the 18th Red Sox pitcher to throw a no hitter, and joining Nolan Ryan as only the second guy to no hit the Royals in their history.

This is all stuff you can read anywhere, even if I don’t fawn over how inspirational it was for Lester to throw a no-hitter. Some people can draw inspiration from things like that, but I’m not one of them…it’s just not how I’m wired.

No, what I got out of the no hitter is that there are two Jon Lesters, and the one we’ll all hear about it probably the one that he’s sick and tired of being.

The Jon Lester we will hear about is how he beat cancer, and then had a charmed year from July 07 to now. Lester isn’t a pitcher anymore, he’s a Cancer Survivor who happens to pitch. When he was interviewed after the game on Monday, he was asked about the cancer quite a bit by the press, and by Heidi Watney on the field. Varitek and Francona, who understandably showed a great amount of emotion, were asked about how special Lester was in defeating cancer. Lester is a Cancer Survivor, above all else.

The other Jon Lester was visably uncomfortable talking about his cancer after throwing a no hitter, like he was sick of talking about it. This Jon Lester is a former top prospect and potential rotation mainstay with the defending World Champions. This Lester throw his cutter too much, even if it’s flat, and doesn’t have a consistant breaking pitch. This Lester was almost traded to the White Sox in the 2003 off season merry-go-round that would have landed Alex Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez in Boston.

This Lester pitched the game of his life against the Royals.

I write this at the risk of sounding insensitive, and that’s not my intent. I think it is tremendous that he beat cancer, and I would think that about anyone who had a cancer scare. Though the fatality rate of his type of lymphoma is fairly low, cancer isn’t something I would wish on anyone, and the fact that he was pitching less than a year after diagnosis is remarkable.

But beating cancer has created a narrative that has glossed over who Jon Lester is. After Monday, Varitek got credit for catching his fourth no-hitter. Lester got credit for beating cancer.

Going forward, it’s important to realize that Jon Lester shouldn’t be pigeon-holed as a Cancer Survivor, because his accomplishments on the field become a subset of that…and he seems tired of talking about it.

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By Zach,

Riding a seven game win streak, the red hot Red Sox cruise into Oakland on the wings of dominant starting pitching and efficient offense.  Can the rotation keep it up?  Will the bullpen show up?

Friday 10:05 ET
Wakefield at Harden

Rich Harden is back at it; trying to stay healthy for a full season.  Honestly, this is far earlier than I expected him back and effective.  After struggling in his first start off the DL, he dominated the Braves May 17th, 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K.  If he goes down again, the team that signs him might have to hold him out until the last month of 2009/2010 and unleash him during the playoffs.  He could be the ultimate closer.   Its tough to put a value on this kind of player, the one with a risk/reward close to 1.  The A’s hold a $7 million option on 2009, with no buyout.  Billy Beane would probably like to deal him before forced with the option choice, but in order to get a sniff Harden will need to demonstrate a few months of health.

He draws the Sox for the third time in five starts, a point Beane is sure to bring up when hounding the Rockies to give him Ian Stewart in the coming weeks.  In his first two against Boston Harden was hittable and wild but struck out fifteen in eleven innings.  Early season pitch limits forced him out of the game early, but didn’t keep him healthy for much longer.  With a guy like Harden, hand holding and baby steps don’t cover his crystalline fragility.  If Wakefield can meltdown slightly less than he did in Minnesota (2.2 IP, 6 ER) and the Sox can get Harden deep in counts early, this game is winnable.  A bullpen battle is the best case scenario, and a crapshoot.

Saturday 9:05 ET
Beckett at Duchscherer

Doug Mirabelli has been in three trades that worked out well for both sides.  Both times the Sox acquired him, for Duchscherer from the Rangers in 2001, and from San Diego for Cla Meredith and Josh Bard, each team got the best-case result from its efforts.  The third is indirect in that the Sox acquired Loretta for him, and the Pads were able to spin Dougie back in the aforementioned deal.  Essentially, its Loretta for Meredith and Bard, via Doug.  All this is only relevant because at 30, Duchsherer has figured out life a starter after four effective seasons in the Oakland ‘pen.  His 2.67 ERA is a product of his 0.53 HR/9.  Accoring to Fangraphs, players have a hard time getting any lift on his pitches.  A 28.9 LD% combined with a 30.7 FB% will raise some eyebrows.  It reeks of scoring error, but if true, that’s a lot of line drives.  Why haven’t those liners become fly balls?  My guess is they will, and Duchsherer will give up his share of bombs.

Sunday 4:05 ET
Lester at Blanton

This is one to watch.  Not because I expect Jon Lester to come anywhere near the no-hit game of his life, but I fear the 130 pitches will effect him going forward.  I was hoping Theo would figure something else out and give him a few extra days, but roster handcuffs prevent it.  I find it odd though, would Papelbon or Buchholz be put in a compromising position under any circumstance?  Is Lester’s future more expendable?  Maybe.

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By Jimmy, 5/22/2008 6:43 am

If 5 innings where he threw roughly 90% fastballs, a healthy Bartolo Colon earned the victory in his 2008 MLB debut against the Kansas City Royals last night. Colon’s strength has always been fastball location, and that strength was visible in his outing.

Colon was around 94 MPH with his four-seam fastballs, and the hardest hit ball against him came on a hanging breaking pitch. While the team was expecting to cap him at 75 pitches last night (he threw 74), he’ll have a limit of around 85 or 90 next time out according to pitching coach John Farrell.

Whither Clay Buchholz?

Well, with the emergence of Bartolo Colon, it is all but guaranteed that Clay’s next pitches will be thrown in a Pawtucket Red Sox uniform, along with another guy who has been impressive at the MLB level: fellow prospect Justin Masterson.

The 2008 Boston Red Sox are beginning to have a problem. A “good” problem. Each of these 8 starting pitchers could be ready to provide innings at the major league level in the second half of this season:

Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Lester
Tim Wakefield
Bartolo Colon
Clay Buchholz
Justin Masterson
Curt Schilling in August?

With injuries, these issues tend to take care of themselves to some degree. If Colon remains healthy and Curt Schilling progresses as he expects, Buchholz and Masterson are probably the odd guys out and will spend the bulk of 2008 in AAA for development purposes.

However, pitching depth is an extremely valuable commodity in modern baseball, and it appears that the Red Sox have plenty of it right now.

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By Zach, 5/21/2008 9:28 am

Last night, you were bad.  You didn’t kill us, but only because your homeboy’s the man, the keystone and the fire brigade.  You lasted two-thirds of an inning and gave up a double and two walks.  Luckily, they were in that order.  During a week of highs, I hate to be the log in the Hi-C (patent pending), but I’m officially concerned.

You’re the eighth inning guy, and theres no one waiting in the wings.  Rich Garces is not walking through that door.   The kids are inconsistent, the veterans are ancient, and Justin Masterson is looking more like a starter than some late season bullpen help.  Julio Lugo should have knocked down that ball in the seventh and you would have had a bit more breathing room, but he didn’t.  Your curve was working, but your splitter wasn’t and sometimes you’ve gotta go with your strengths.

We know you’ve had a sore wrist, it happens.  We’ve all had to take a few days from time to time.  If you need a week just tell us, we’ll understand.  Its really important that the old Okajima returns.

Regards,
The Rotation, New England, and the Red Sox Diaspora

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By Jimmy, 5/19/2008 8:11 pm

5/19/08: Jon Lester Throws No-Hitter at Fenway Park

From the time I started watching the Red Sox religiously around 1987 (Roger Clemens’ prime) right up until the beginning of the 21st century (the beginning of Pedro’s decline) I was always waiting for the no-hitter that never arrived.

Now, 7 years later, I can say that I’ve seen 4 Red Sox no-hitters. Although I should be used to this by now, one thing is for certain: those 8th and 9th innings never get any easier to watch.

Of course, the key to this game was control. Jon Lester has always had very good stuff, but the issue of pitch location has sometimes been a problem. Tonight, he got ahead of nearly every hitter he faced and located all of his pitches well, and the result is one of the finest pitching performances you and I will ever see in our lifetimes.

A cool side note: Jason Varitek has caught all 4 of the aforementioned no-hitters, which is a Major League record (tied with Hall of Famer Ray Schalk).

Tomorrow, it’s Justin Masterson on the mound in the place of injured Clay Buchholz, and the day after we will see Bartolo Colon make his 2008 debut. For now, however, let’s savor tonight.

Congrats! Now please go ice down that 130-pitch arm.

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By Jimmy, 5/15/2008 1:07 pm

The Sox, mired in a bit of a funk, have a merciful day off today.  However, there is some news from the International League that bears watching:

Bartolo Colon, the former Cy Young Award winner currently rehabbing for the Pawtucket Red Sox, had his second start of the season today in Buffalo.

How did he pitch?  Almost perfectly.

6 innings, 1 hit, no walks, 4 Ks.  Colon threw 64 pitches, and 45 were strikes (70%).  Colon has thrown a total of 14 innings in AAA and yielded only 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 11.

With the inconsistency and/or injury of Clay Buchholz and the general uselessness of Mike Timlin, it appears that some veteran help could be on the way to Boston within the next few weeks.

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By Zach, 5/14/2008 1:06 pm

Steve Phillips is right, but he has no idea why. If you can stand watching an ESPN broadcast with the sound on, and really, the unintentional comedy of listening to Dan Shulman corral the two knuckleheads locked in that booth with him is reason enough, you’ve heard Phillips’ latest tirade. “Major League Baseball is on pace for one THOUSAND less home runs than in 2006.” Or something vaguely familiar and more convoluted than that.

Amateur economists like to quote a famous economist that once said “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Phillips’ filibuster on home run totals looks like some guy trying to create misleading statistical evidence. Why limit it to home runs? They aren’t the only measure of power and therefore, steroid use. Why use the entire season? Power is usually down in April and May as players adjust and power is sapped by cold weather and dense air. Why use a raw total? Generally there are more off days and rain outs in the cold northeast during April and May. If he was really trying to prove that power has declined he’d compare a rate stat over a similar time period.

As it turns out, he’s covered up the truth. Slugging was down in April, and by a large margin.

MLB SLG, April 2006: .430
MLB SLG, April 2008: .401

Thanks for dumbing it down Steve, maybe soon we’ll reach your level.

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By Jimmy,

This time, it’s not an April Fool’s Joke.

Clay Buchholz has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a broken fingernail.

In need of an outfielder, the Sox have called up 28-year-old career minor leaguer Jonathan Van Every from Pawtucket.   The left-handed hitter was playing well in CF for the Pawsox, hitting .287/.365/.484 with 4 steals in 4 attempts.

Van Every has never before appeared in a MLB game.  Welcome to the encyclopedia, “kid”.

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By Jimmy,

As the Sox lost their third game, this time to Jeremy Guthrie and the Baltimore Orioles, the team sustained a couple of casualties in the outfield.

J.D. Drew, a guy whose injury log reads like that of Robbie Knieval, rolled his wrist while lunging for a ball last night.  The current word is that Drew is day to day, but we all know how wrist injuries can be problematic for hitters.  If I had to wager, I’d put money down on Drew missing some games.

On a seemingly less-serious level, Coco Crisp left the game with nausea.  Unless the Great Infulenza is making an encore performance, he should be okay.  However, today’s game is early (3 PM), so anything is possible.

There’s a chance we could be seeing the return of Brandon Moss (.268/.337/.427 in Pawtucket) today.  Stay tuned.

In other notes: Boston starting pitchers have been quite abysmal in these three losses.  Here are the starters’ numbers for the past 3 games:

12.2 innings (about 4 innings per start)
26 hits
19 runs (18 earned)
12.79 ERA

Jon Lester takes the mound today, and will try to squelch this momentary lapse of pitching ability.

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By Zach, 5/13/2008 6:28 am

I don’t care if it’s lava, two wins and ten losses on any surface won’t be defending any titles. Why is this team so inept on the fake stuff? The most obvious answer is infield defense. I don’t think that’s the case here, but there are many reasons: travel schedules, pitching woes, bullpen hiccups and stronger opponents. Unfortunately they caught the Blue Jays playing their best, the Rays looking formidable, and the Twins as hot as they’ll be all season. This will even out, right?

The Rays won their fifth straight to close the gap in the AL East to a mere half game. Matt Garza looked strong, and Andy Pettitte looked old. The Bronx Bums are killing the Red Sox, even in their mediocrity. At what point do we start rooting for the Yankees? Soon.

Hey, road struggles are common among Boston teams in the spring. The Red Sox are still in first, however barely, and the Celtics have home court advantage. This is why all those regular season wins were so important. It was a bad weekend, but things could be much, much worse.

Edit: I called them the “Devil” Rays.  Save your breath, Secular Rays.

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By Jimmy, 5/12/2008 1:17 pm

In a somewhat surprising move, Julian Tavarez was designated for assignment today to make room for Sean Casey.

Herald Link

The general assumption was that Craig Hansen would be the casualty of Casey’s return, but it looks like the Sox actually have some confidence in Hansen’s refined mechanics.

I’m not sure what will happen from here, but I have to assume that Tavarez will not accept a demotion, and will end up on another Major League team, possibly Colorado.  If this is indeed the last time we see him wearing the laundry, his Red Sox career ends at 246 innings pitched, a 4.94 ERA, 29 starts, 12 wins, 1 CG, and 1 ring.

This is a somewhat sad moment, reminiscent of the final scenes of One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest.  His antics, like those of Randall MacMurphy, will be missed.

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By Jimmy,

It sounds like something that could be true, doesn’t it?

The neutral air environment of domed stadiums should help the knuckleball “flutter” with more consistency and accuracy in comparison to open air stadiums. This is a credo I’ve heard from several baseball analysts, most recently Joe Morgan on ESPN last night (note: I’m not bashing Morgan here; many other guys have said the same thing).

If you take a quick and dirty look at Tim Wakefield’s career splits, it looks like there might be something to this:

Career Open Air ERA: 4.39 (2,394 innings)
Career Dome ERA: 3.82 (276 innings)

However, once we drill a little bit deeper and look at the 3 domes that Tim has pitched in semi-regularly, a different picture is painted.

In the SkyDome/Rogers Centre in Toronto, Wakefield’s career ERA is 4.33, exactly the same as his career ERA.

In the Metrodome, the venue for Tim’s putrid performance last night, Wakefield’s career ERA is 4.54. He actually pitches worse in this dome than he does in Fenway Park (4.39).

So, where are these “good” numbers coming from? Tampa Bay, where Wakefield has held the Rays to a 2.52 ERA over 107 innings. As you know, the Rays (up until recently, perhaps) have had a long run as one of the lesser teams in Major League Baseball, a fact which probably contributes to Tim’s low dome ERA, much more so than the physics of the knuckleball.

To further dispel the myth, Tim’s K/BB ratio in domes is nearly identical to his open-air ratio: 1.76 versus 1.75.

In conclusion: sure, the knuckleball works well in domed environments…as long as you are facing a team which has finished in last place in nearly every season of their entire existence.

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By Zach, 5/9/2008 6:57 am

It was a tale of two Verlanders.  The first inning Justin was hitting the corners with his fastball and cutting up Red Sox hitters.  From the second on, he regained his control for brief instances, otherwise the patient Red Sox stalked the troubled ace and pounced when he was most vulnerable.

With a three run lead and Josh Beckett mowing down hapless Tigers, confidence was running high early.  During a day off for Manny, Kevin Youkilis filled in admirably.  He launched his fourth homer of the series, fifth in five games, to seal the deal.  In the words of the immortal genius, king of kings, Hawk Harrelson: “You can put it in the board! YYYouk!”  A less likely hero, the Captain had a solid night, 1-2 with a pair of RBIs and walks.  That’s all we ask of you, Sir Varitek.  Just don’t be a giant gaping hole where runs go to die.  Deal? Thanks.

The Largest Bullpen in Baseball did a fine job.  Mr. Electric showed his typical nasty slider and poor control.  Fortunately, the Tigers were anxious, going down in order on a dozen pitches.  In a “get your confidence up” appearance, Manny Delcarmen didn’t ruin the hard work of his teammates.  His next appearance should be of similar low leverage, and if he’s successful, its time to work him back into a meaningful role.  His return to form will allow some of the dead weight to be cut.  Always a bullpen psychologist, Francona picked a fine spot to use two kids who need some good innings under their belt.

8PM, Lester at Bonser

The Red Sox look to continue their tear through the Central, next victim: Minnesota.  The first place Twins have been a surprise, but their 17-16 record would only be good for third in any other division.  Its less a case of the Twinkies dominating than their divisional foes wetting the bed.  Pythagorus, via Bill James, says they should be 16-17, and I tend to agree.  Bonser (2-4, 4.29, 1.24) gave up six runs in the first inning of his last start May 4, but gutted out six innings and the Twins came back to take it, 7-6.  He’s shown remarkable control, 9 walks in 42 innings, but struck out only 27.  If he maintains his low ground ball rate, 39%, and doesn’t start striking guys out, the luck will run dry and those fly balls will start finding the seats.

It’s a dreary Friday in New York, I hope your weekend weather is better.  Is spring time, isn’t it?  Scientific community, where’s my weather machine?  You’ve really dropped the ball here.

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By Jimmy, 5/8/2008 11:15 am

I’m not sure why I listen to sports talk radio. Maybe because my forearms get a decent workout when I yank hair out of my skull.

There’s always one guy on the Red Sox who gets stamped with a bullseye in April, and wears it throughout the entire season. This player becomes the focal point of critique from nearly all outlets, from the writers of the Boston Globe down to the most inebriated potatohead caller on WEEI, regardless of the other things that might be contributing to a loss.

Two years ago, it was Edgar Renteria. Last year, it was J.D. Drew. This year, the lightning rod is back at SS: Julio Cesar Lugo.

Yes, he’s the weakest hitter in the lineup. He’s a #9 hitter. Every team has at least one weakness in their lineup. As much as I would love to see the Sox field a team of 9 guys who have a .900 OPS, it simply isn’t going to happen.

Yes, he leads the AL in errors in May. Typically, a SS will lead his league in errors. Last year, slick-fielding Jason Bartlett led the league with 26.

Let’s ignore the fact that he has decent range (reportedly quite a bit more than Jed Lowrie), and is actually hitting right around his career averages. Let’s ignore the fact that Boston pitching allowed 10 runs on 18 hits last night. Let’s ignore the fact that Edgar Renteria may have beaten the throw even if Lugo had fielded the ball cleanly.

I wish my mind worked in such simple algorithms, like the people I’ve been listening to and reading today. It must be such a stress-free lifestyle. Focus on one problem and block out everything else. Lugo make error. Sox lose. Lugo cause loss. It’s that simple.

Boston Globe headline: “Fumble Leads to Sox Loss. Shortstop Lugo Hands One to Tigers.” This is an actual headline from people who are paid salaries to write headlines.

Ignorance is bliss, and these are happy days.

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By Jimmy,

On the heels of whispers of trade discussions in Denver, Terry Francona decided to thaw out Julian Tavarez and send him to the mound in a 1 run game in Detroit. The last time Tavarez was actually used in a game, a land bridge existed between Alaska and Asia.

Alas, the showcase turned into a horror flick, as Tavarez coughed up 3 quick runs in one inning of work. There are those who believe that a sinkerball pitcher shouldn’t be kept on the shelf for too long between outings, and last night wouldn’t exactly disprove that hypothesis.

Starter Clay Buchholz also struggled, though he did show flashes of brilliance when he wasn’t being possessed by the ghost of John Wasdin. Clay stuck out six and only walked one, but was extremely hittable and only lasted 4 innings before giving way to The Missing Link. In what became a battle of bullpens and clutch at-bats, Detroit edged the first-place Red Sox 10-9.

Papelbon did blow his first save of the season, but he did so without giving up one hard-hit ball. The game-winning single by Placido Polanco was just a nice piece of hitting; and perhaps a microcosm for Detroit’s performance last night. They were backed into a corner in their house, and scraped their way back on more than one occasion.

It’s just a case where you just tip your cap, walk off the field, and prepare for Justin Verlander tomorrow.

Notes:

• Loosen that noose: David Ortiz has found his stroke. The DH is hitting .423/.483/.769 in the month of May, and is finally “above average” on the season (OPS+ of 106) after suffering through the worst slump of his career.
• May has been kind to corner infielders in general, as Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell are .375/.484/1.042 and .323/.344/.677 for the month, respectively.
• Julio Lugo had a major error in the bottom of the ninth, allowing the eventual winning run to reach base. He’s quickly becoming a lightning rod, but before you grab the torch and pitchfork, consider this: a) Lugo is (from all accounts) a much better defensive option than Jed Lowrie at SS, and b) he’s actually getting on base, with a .354 OBP.

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By Zach, 5/7/2008 6:15 am

It’s a strange game. April 10th, Wakefield and Robertson locked horns in an eighteen run, four hour marathon. I rushed home at eight o’clock last night only to see half the game gone by and the remainder finished before the second half of the Celtics’ game. Thank you for considering us bandwagon Celtics fans, Red Sox.

When it appeared Timmy wouldn’t come out to finish his gem, I was pissed. Mike Timlin would get a chance to ruin it. Then I said to myself “You know, self, this could be the straw that breaks Mike Timlin’s tenuous hold on a roster spot. If he comes in and allows a run or two, maybe he’ll finally be made Bullpen Coach, Band Leader, or Luggage Porter.” Allowing a leadoff single was a good start, but a double play erased the runner and he grooved a few until Carlos Guillen flied out. He will live to see another lead blown, inherited runner scored, and bambi quiver in terror.

So it turns out David Ortiz is still awesome. Glad that’s decided. Over his last 18 games, his OPS is .942 and he’s driven in 24 runs.

Bullpen Clusterf*ck Resolved?

Denver Post: Rockies (Still) Want Tavarez

Who to target?

With a physique that makes Jeremy Brown look like Charles Atlas, the 5’9″ 225 pound Edwin Bellorin should be available. He’s spending his third year at AAA and has Yorvit Torrealba and Chris Iannetta above him on the depth chart. Did I mention he could be mistaken for the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man?

Why would I advocate acquiring such a specimen? After struggling for six years in the Dodgers’ system, he’s been reborn in Colorado Springs. In 221 at bats last year, he put up a .898 OPS, and it has continued into this year: .909, second on the Sky Sox to power prospect Joe Koshansky. He’s 26, so getting a little long in the tooth, but if his defense is acceptable he might be a guy to target.

I don’t subscribe to the “OMG Tek is getting old and looks really bad we need to replace him NOW NOW NOW!” stuff, and the catching depth in all levels of the minor league affiliates is sufficient, but Bellorin could make it better. If anyone knows of a reliable place in the tubes to find defensive analysis of fringe catching prospects, please, let me know. Specifically, can he catch the knuckler?

For a few thoughts on tonight’s matchup, check out: Series Preview. Ignore all that stuff I was wrong about.

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By Jimmy, 5/6/2008 6:55 am

Daisuke Matsuzaka was credited with the victory last night, and this speaks to my amazement as to why the baseball world has had such a raging stiffy for the “Win” statistic over the past 120 years or so.

Let’s break it down:

5 innings pitched. Well, that’s the minimum requirement I suppose. Huzzah.

2 hits allowed. Wow, that’s pretty good. Nice work, Dice Man.

1 earned run. Again, very impressive. What’s the problem again?

8 walks. Um…repeat that, please?

8 walks. EIGHT WALKS? WHAT THE F*&#??!!

1 strikeout. ONE STRIKEOUT AND EIGHT WALKS??!!!

Honestly, against a lineup that has about $30 billion dollars tied up in their top 5 hitters in the batting order, the Red Sox are lucky Detroit didn’t score 15 runs.

I counted about 5 line drive or long fly ball outs that were gratuitously hit either directly at our fielders or the deep part of Comerica Park, while men were on base. This is, quite honestly, the flukiest 1-run pitching performance I have ever seen.

This really shouldn’t be a “W” in the books, for the sake of quality record retention. There should be a new statistic engineered for this very thing (qualifying for a win while having a K/BB ratio of less than .25). A “Shrug” (SHR)? A “Phew” (PHW)? Last season, Matsuzaka led the American League in Phews, and he already has two or three of them this season.

I just need to get used to the fact that his strength is staying away from the strike zone, more so than the typical pitcher. Higher walk totals will hopefully continue to be coupled with low hit totals, and Daisuke will hopefully continue to win games.

However, in games where the other team “hits it where they ain’t”, there will be problems.

Side notes: Don Orsillo made us privy to an interesting factoid last night: the Red Sox are the first team in nearly 2 years to have the top 4 draft picks from a particular draft on the active roster at the same time (Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen, Jed Lowrie, Clay Buchholz).

One last point: I wholeheartedly approve of new NESN “sideline analyst” Heidi Watney. Sure, she stumbled a few times. But, you know…

…I think I can allow her a honeymoon period.

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By Zach, 5/5/2008 7:05 am

With April behind us, we’ve got a general idea of the character of this Red Sox team. One thing is certain: It’s gonna be a rollercoaster ride that will weaken the most iron of stomachs. After starting a Far East induced 5-6, the Sox vaulted to the top of the standings with a 10-1 run. From that point, they lost five in a row then won five of six to end up here, at a very respectable 20-13. I’d give a non-vital digit for some god damn consistency.

Detroit welcomes Boston to Comerica Park on Monday, televised on ESPN. It will probably be butchered by Dan Shulman, Steve Phillips and Orel Hershiser, but hey, at least they aren’t Miller/Morgan. Detroit’s slow start was well reported, but they haven’t exactly burned the house down since “snapping out of it.” From 0-7 they stand at 14-18, and came to within a game of .500 before being swept over the weekend in Minnesota.

Brandon Moss will be sidelined for a few weeks after having an appendectomy and Mr. Electric, Craig Hansen, is back. I couldn’t be happier to see Hansen back in the pen, but not at the cost of a backup outfielder. With everyone (save Manny) in the outfield hurting, Jonathan Van Every would make a lot more sense. Comerica’s ginormous gaps make corner outfield defense that much more important, so I hope there’s a sky-is-falling plan.

Your four game series preview, in convenient bulleted form, (because I am lazy and running late this morning):

Monday, Matsuzaka vs. Bonderman

• Happy Cinco de Mayo!
• Daisuke’s last start: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 B, 111 pitches
• Sheff 6-10, HR versus Matsuzaka
• Bonderman lots of BB, few Ks, He’s throwing his fastball more and slider less than years past: 66% FB, 27% SL, compared to 58 and 35% last year
• Get to the bullpen and wear out a thin group for the long series

Tuesday, Wakefield vs. Robertson

• Happy Seis de Mayo!
• Magglio 15-35, 5 2B, 2 HR vs Wake
• Robertson: first W of the season last time out vs Yankees, 6.28 ERA needs run support
• 4/10: Same matchup, Sox won 12-6

Wednesday, Buchholz vs. Galarraga

• Galarraga: 1.88 ERA, 0.875 WHIP
• older than Bonderman, his last good pro season in a meaningful sample, 2005 in high A
• tall, lanky righty: 6’4″ 180 lbs.
• No one on the Sox has faced him
• He has been avoiding solid contact and home runs, 0.38 HR/9, .186 BABIP.
• Revert him! To the mean, Alice, to the mean!

Thursday, Beckett vs. Verlander

• Finale and exclamation point
• Verlander: 1.44 WHIP, 6.28 ERA
• Command is killing him, LD% and GB% both better than career averages
• Beckett: 0.96 WHIP! Everything else in line with career averages

In honor of not listening to Joe Morgan, one of my favorite blogs: Fire Joe Morgan.

Comments (10)

By Jimmy, 5/1/2008 12:40 pm

Sports Illustrated recently ran an interesting little poll, asking fans how they rate their baseball stadiums based on a variety of factors, including atmosphere, food, neighborhood, among others. Surprising to some, but not as surprising to some others (myself included), Fenway Park had a rather lackluster showing, placing 21st out of 30 in the overall ranking.

Now, I have a bit of a love-hate relationship with Fenway. I love the look of the stadium: the green walls, the brick exterior, the giant neon red Budweiser sign, the metal scoreboard, and just about every other cosmetic characteristic of 4 Yawkey Way.

I love the nostalgia factor. I very much appreciate the fact that Smokey Joe Wood stood atop the same dirt mound as as Daisuke Matsuzaka (give or take a few inches of dirt), and Ted Williams fielded ricochets from the same green wall as Manny Ramirez.

However, the Love Train derails abrupty after those two stops.

Do you want to know why Fenway ranks low in the “food” department, even though they offer clam chowder and sausage sangwiches (sic) and pizza and steamed franks? It’s because you’re likely to miss up to three innings while getting the food, thanks to the crowded, narrow pathways and over-utilized, understaffed vendor kiosks. You’ll have an easier time navigating through Mary-Kate Olsen’s uterus.

Do you want to know why Fenway ranks low in the “atmosphere” department, even though the crowd is as loud and electric and intense as they are in any other ballpark? Because the seats are built to fit WWI-era Irish leprechauns, thousands of grandstand seats do not face home plate, and there are dozens of load-bearing columns that sit directly in front of $45 grandstand seats.

To their credit, this ownership group has done wonderful things with several capital improvements on Fenway, something which likely factors into the newfound level of demand the park currently enjoys. However, after tens of millions of dollars have been spent on Fenway Park, the most glaring issues have not, and will never, be rectified. Fenway and the surrounding area sit atop a giant swamp (or “fens”), making it very difficult to build or change anything, due to reasons beyond my pay grade (environmental, structural, ect…). Essentially, there is a ceiling to the amount of renovation that can take place at Fenway.

The Yankees and Mets have similar issues; they have expensive ticket prices at sub-par ballparks. However, both teams will be getting new stadiums next year. A new Red Sox ballpark is not on any horizon, but should it be? Should there be a long term plan for a new stadium (15 years or so)?

I acknowledge this with a heavy heart: there is only one way to fix the most glaring problem faced by ticket-buying fans of the Boston Red Sox: