It sounds like something that could be true, doesn’t it?

The neutral air environment of domed stadiums should help the knuckleball “flutter” with more consistency and accuracy in comparison to open air stadiums. This is a credo I’ve heard from several baseball analysts, most recently Joe Morgan on ESPN last night (note: I’m not bashing Morgan here; many other guys have said the same thing).

If you take a quick and dirty look at Tim Wakefield’s career splits, it looks like there might be something to this:

Career Open Air ERA: 4.39 (2,394 innings)
Career Dome ERA: 3.82 (276 innings)

However, once we drill a little bit deeper and look at the 3 domes that Tim has pitched in semi-regularly, a different picture is painted.

In the SkyDome/Rogers Centre in Toronto, Wakefield’s career ERA is 4.33, exactly the same as his career ERA.

In the Metrodome, the venue for Tim’s putrid performance last night, Wakefield’s career ERA is 4.54. He actually pitches worse in this dome than he does in Fenway Park (4.39).

So, where are these “good” numbers coming from? Tampa Bay, where Wakefield has held the Rays to a 2.52 ERA over 107 innings. As you know, the Rays (up until recently, perhaps) have had a long run as one of the lesser teams in Major League Baseball, a fact which probably contributes to Tim’s low dome ERA, much more so than the physics of the knuckleball.

To further dispel the myth, Tim’s K/BB ratio in domes is nearly identical to his open-air ratio: 1.76 versus 1.75.

In conclusion: sure, the knuckleball works well in domed environments…as long as you are facing a team which has finished in last place in nearly every season of their entire existence.