There will be no shortage of analysis of the trade that happened. I disargee with Jimmy…I think the trade is pretty fantastic when you consider that Bay has hit as well as Manny this year, is probably +10 or so (1 win) better than Manny defensively, while Brandon Moss had no place on the team, and Craig Hansen can’t find the plate.

Manny Ramirez was one of my favorite players to watch, both as a hitter, and a complete space cadet. I don’t blame him for him losing his mind over the last week any more than I blame the Red Sox for somehow getting into these pissing matches whenever any very good player is primed to leave…it’s the sucky side of the business, but I understand.

Here are some Manny facts…
First hit: 4/2/01 vs. Pat Hentgen (BAL). Single
First double: 4/12/01 vs. Jose Mercedes (BAL)
First triple: 5/11/01 vs. Cory Lidle (OAK)
First home run: 4/6/01 vs. Ryan Rupe (TAM). 3R, Nixon and Offerman score
First RBI: 4/6/01 vs. Ryan Rupe (TAM). 3HR, Nixon and Offerman score
First walk: 4/4/01 vs. Mike Trombley (BAL)
First stolen base: 5/7/03 vs. Kyle Snyder/Mike Difelice (KCR). 3rd base.

500th hit (with Boston): 4/4/04 vs. Sindey Ponson (BAL). Single
1000th hit (with Boston): 5/1/07 vs. Alan Embree (OAK). Single

100th HR (with Boston): 8/13/04 vs. Mark Mulder (OAK). 2R, Garciaparra scores
200th HR (with Boston): 4/21/07 vs. Scott Schoeneweis (TOR). 2R, Ortiz scores

500th RBI (with Boston): 5/15/05 vs. Gil Meche (SEA). 3HR, Damon and Bellhorn score

500th walk (with Boston): 8/18/06 vs. Chein-ming Wang (NYY)

Last hit: 7/28/08 vs. Francisco Rodriguez (LAA). Home Run
Last double: 7/27/08 vs. Sidney Ponson (NYY)
Last triple: 4/8/08 vs. Kenny Rogers (DET)
Last home run: 7/28/08 vs. Francisco Rodriguez (LAA). Solo
Last RBI: 7/28/08 vs. Francisco Rodriguez (LAA). Home Run
Last walk: 7/30/08 vs. Joe Saunders (LAA)
Last stolen base: 4/27/08 vs. Jaime Shields/Dioner Navarro. 2nd base

Walk offs for the Red Sox:
4/13/01 vs. Mariano Rivera (NYY) 9th inning single
6/15/03 vs. Peter Munro (HOU) 14th inning single
8/12/06 vs. Bruce Chen (BAL) 10th inning single
10/5/07 vs. Francisco Rodriguez (LAA) 9th inning home run

World Series Champion in 2004, and 2007. World Series MVP in 2004. Five time top 10 AL MVP. Eight time all star. 2002 AL Batting champion. Six time Silver Slugger. 2004 Hank Aaron winner. Led the AL in on base in 2002, 2003, and 2006. Led the AL in slugging in 2004. Led the AL in home runs in 2004.

Remember through all his quirks/annoyances, Manny Ramirez is one of the greatest player ever to put on the uniform. He should be remembered as such…

Manny Ramirez Traded to Dodgers, Jason Bay to Boston

In an apparent three-way trade made at the 11th hour, the Boston Red Sox have acquired Jason Bay from Pittsburgh, while sending controversial slugger Manny Ramirez to the LA Dodgers. The Pirates are supposedly getting a bunch of minor leaguers. The Red Sox also had to part with Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen.

SI.com story

So, what did Boston get in this deal?

Jason Bay

Pros:
Under contract through 2009.
Only 29 years old, still in prime of his career.
Having a good season. 135 OPS+, NL All-Star.
A defensive improvement on Manny, not far from him offensively.

Cons:
Although better defensively than Manny, he’s not “good”.
Coming off of a lousy season in 2007.
An NL player from a very small market, coming to a more challenging environment.

My initial thoughts are the same as they were before: I’m not really thrilled. On a pure talent standpoint, the Red Sox will have a slightly weaker product tomorrow than they had yesterday.  Losing Hansen and Moss does not bother me, both of these guys had a ceiling in this organization. But losing Manny, still among the top handful of hitters in baseball, doesn’t seem like much of a “win” for a team that has struggled to score runs recently. I suppose this is the deal that most of New England was pining for, after the reports from last night surfaced.

Be careful what you wish for.

Quick trade update:

Multiple sources (here’s one) are indicating that the Red Sox are in talks with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Florida Marlins.  The main course of the deal would be Manny Ramirez to Florida, Jeremy Hermida to Pittsburgh, and Jason Bay to Boston.  Other players would likely be involved (i.e. the Sox might need to part with a prospect).

To recap, the Sox would get Jason Bay for Manny, money, and possibly a prospect.  The one plus Jason Bay brings to the table: he’s controlled through 2009.  Still, Manny is categorically a more productive player than Bay.  I won’t even factor in the whole National League stigma here.

This is one three-way that would leave the Red Sox with a rash.  A rash in the form of a lesser baseball team.

Abstain, Theo.

…assuming, of course, you are hoping to see the Red Sox in another World Series in 2008. In all of the discussed trade scenarios, there isn’t really one which would actually improve this year’s Red Sox team (on the field, at least).

Yes, the Angels made a huge statement last night, both on and off the field.  Yes, they healed their one glaring weakness with a bold mid-season trade.  So, why can’t Theo Epstein work the same magic for the Boston Red Sox?  It’s because Boston’s jigsaw puzzle isn’t as clearly defined as the one down in Anaheim.

The Angels needed a bat.  They got one.  What do the Red Sox need?  Who can really step in and make this team better?  Offensively, their one glaring weakness is at catcher, and there is exactly a 0% chance our starting catcher will lose his job this year (barring injury).  A middle reliever, I suppose?   Maybe someone who could be the third guy in the bullpen depth chart?

The trade discussions currently dominating New England revolve around Manny Ramirez, an All-Star outfielder currently hitting .301/.399/.533.  As we discussed, it’s unlikely that Manny would be moved.  And if he were moved, it’s unlikely that the trade would make the 2008 Red Sox a better baseball team, given the options currently swirling around the rumor mill.
I suppose Matt Kemp would be interesting enough. Close to a 5-tool player and a possible future superstar, he may not cover Manny’s production in ‘08, but he’s a good bet to provide long term value. However, it doesn’t look like that is gong to happen, according to the latest reports from LA.

If the Red Sox do make a deal, it’s likely going to be for someone who contribute in roughly 30 innings for the team down the stretch.  If you’re hoping for that one big blockbuster to counter the Angels acquisition of Mark Teixeira, don’t hold your breath.

In spite of the endless ocean of drama and hand wringing, Manny Ramirez continues to pound the ball. But, we’ve all seen this movie several times already, right? Late July, Manny makes a trade request or pisses someone off, the rumor mill churns at centrifuge-like speeds, and then nothing happens. Both sides shrug off the whole fiasco and get back to business.

Given his contract requirements and 10-5 status, this year’s episode of the Mid-Season Manny Circus will probably not be any different from those in the past. In the unlikely event that the team actually does trade him, can his absence in the lineup be filled internally? Most of the trade speculation has involved names such as Matt Holliday and Pat Burrell, i.e. heavy-hitting outfielders with large contracts. However, could the Sox go a different route, and receive prospects and bullpen help instead of a big-name corner OF?

As it stands, there are quite a few OF/1B types in AAA Pawtucket who have been putting on a summer-long laser show at McCoy Stadium with their bats. Two guys in particular seem very interesting. I’m referring to Brandon Moss and Jeff Bailey.

The scenario I envision would be a LH/RH platoon between the left-handed Moss and right-handed Bailey. Using the MLE calculator at www.minorleaguesplits.com, we can get a crude idea of how these guys’ split numbers translate from McCoy Stadium to Fenway Park. Keep in mind that Minor League Equivalencies are little more than an a wild educated guess, but they do help shine some perspective on minor league statistics.

Against right-handed AAA pitching, Brandon Moss has hit .297/.363/.613. His MLE is .261/.318/.475. Pedestrian numbers, but they seem fairly realistic for a guy like Moss. He’d likely hit for less power but get on base more often. Jeff Bailey has hit .318/.393/.617 against AAA left-handed pitching, which translates to a MLE of .279/.337/.524. Impressive power numbers, and they don’t seem outrageous for a guy like Bailey at Fenway Park.

The combined MLE for this proposed two-headed AAAA monstrosity? .270/.327/.522, an OPS around 850.

The expectation is that Manny would give you an OPS of around 900, but when you’re trading away a guy like him you have to expect to take at least a modest hit in overall offensive production. Guys like Moss and Bailey would be better in the field than Manny, and this type of move would save the Red Sox a lot of money (not to mention the prospects we could get in return for Manny).

My thoughts? The Sox should probably hold on to Ramirez, assuming their #1 goal is to win a second consecutive championship this fall. However, if the clubhouse and the front office tensions have become absolutely unbearable and they must deal him, some creativity could make this trade an attractive one for Boston in the long term.

Once again, the greatest rivalry in American sports will unfold on the field.  Maybe it’s just me, but there seems to be an unusual air of indifference surrounding these games.  It could be the circumstances: here we are in late July, and the AL East is not the 2-team show we have grown accustomed to in the past decade.

Playoff odds be damned, each of baseball’s two richest teams could easily find themselves sitting out this October.  So, while this weekend’s series appears to have less national fanfare and sensationalism than usual, it is ironically the most important stretch of games these two teams have played against each other in quite some time.

Let’s look at tonight’s starters:

Josh Beckett
What we’ve seen from #19 in 2008 is a season somewhere in between his Cy Young caliber 2007 and his replacement level performance in 2006.  He’s relying almost exclusively on his fastball and 90 MPH changeup to retire hitters, and there have been occasional problems as a result of this.

The most frustrating thing about Josh’s outings: every fan watching him suddenly becomes a pitching coach.  “Throw the curveball, Josh!  It’s that easy, just throw more curveballs!  Why won’t Varitek call for the curveball?!! IF ONLY HE WOULD THROW MORE CURVEBALLS, HE WOULD WIN THIRTY GAMES!!  WHY DOESN’T HE REALIZE THAT??!”  Sadly, if it were really that easy, I’m sure he’d be doing it.  Nobody really knows why Josh has thrown fewer curveballs this season.

Anyway, he is in the midst of a tough patch. In his last 4 starts, Beckett has only struck out 16 hitters in 26 innings (to go along with a 4.85 ERA).

Joba Chamberlain
The Round-Skulled One is coming off of a strong start against Oakland.  As a starter, Joba has been impressive in most areas. His fastball and slider are still quite strong even when Chamberlain throws 5+ innings,  as evidenced by his 10.2 K/9 as a starter.  His one weakness has been the occasional lack of control (he averages 4.2 walks per 9 innings), and he had some difficulty with this in his one start against Boston earlier this month.  He has yet to throw more than 6.2 innings in a single outing.

Boston Offense
As you are probably aware, David Ortiz will make his long awaited return the the Red Sox lineup tonight, a huge boost to a team that is already 2nd in the league in runs scored.

On the flipside, Manny Ramirez sat out Wednesday’s game with a sore knee, and his status for tonight is unknown.  There are no shortage of skeptics of the veracity of Manny’s knee issues.  I’m hoping Wednesday was just a ploy for Manny to get an extra day off, and he’ll be 100% and ready to go tonight.  Everyone else in the lineup is pretty much healthy and ready to go.

New York Offense
With Jorge Posada’s injury, the Yankees will see more at bats from the likes of Richie Sexson, Wilson Betemit, and Chad Moeller.  This three-headed monster might add value with the glove in certain areas, but is a sizable downgrade at the plate.   Left-fielder Brett Gardener has been a quivering mass of offensive ineptitude this season (.161/.238/.179), resulting in the awkward backtracking of “Free Brett” mantras from New Haven to Atlantic City.

On the plus side for NY, Robinson Cano has been turning it around, and is looking more like the guy we’ve seen at the plate in the past two seasons.  The flashy infielder is hitting .358/.382/.537 in his last 33 games.  A-Rod, despite his unusual taste in trim, is still putting up numbers like one would expect from the best all-around player in the league.

Prediction:
An unexpected slug-fest.  I’ll decline to pick a winner, but I will say that each team in Game 1 will score more than 6 runs.   Boston’s patient bats will give Joba trouble, and Beckett will leave one or two fastballs in places where they shouldn’t be.

According to the Denver Post, the Colorado Rockies have named their price for coveted reliever Brian Fuentes.  They are asking for Clay Buchholz.

Just to recap, the Rockies are asking for one of the game’s top 10 pitching prospects in return for a half-season rental of a middle reliever.  A good middle reliever, mind you…but still.  A pitcher who will throw roughly 30 innings for the Boston Red Sox.

This entire development begs the question: what type of drug is Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd experimenting with?   My initial guess is LSD.  Individuals who are tripping on acid can often experience cognitive shifts and distorted perception, and this trade request certainly smacks of that.  However, the Rockies are known to be a somewhat right-leaning organization, and would frown upon such a blatant nod to hippie culture.

My guess?  O’Dowd is using mescaline.  You know…peyote.  Denver is pretty far out west, and the stuff literally grows on trees out there.   That’s the only explanation for this M.C. Escher painting of a trade offer.  He was listening to “Shine On You Crazy Diamond” with his noise-reducing headphones, staring at the glow-in-the-dark star stickers on his ceiling, and somewhere during David Gilmour’s second guitar solo he gets the idea to pick up the phone and call 4 Yawkey Way.

No thanks, Dan.  Sleep it off and try again tomorrow.

After Daisuke Matsuzaka notched his 11th victory of the season last night in Seattle, it might be interesting to sneak a preliminary gander at the American League Cy Young Award race. As early as it is, this is typically the time of year where a handful of guys have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

Note: I’m not going to delve too deeply into things like K/BB or FIP or anything like that, because they likely won’t be considered by the voters, not nearly as much as the Triple Crown stats (wins, Ks, ERA).

Your major candidates in alphabetical order, as of 7/23/08:

Justin Duchscherer - Oakland A’s
10-6, 1.87 ERA.  1st in ERA.
The league leader in ERA will always be considered a strong candidate for the award (as long as he has a winning record, of course), and Justin has nearly a half-run lead on the runner up.  The Duke also has a bit of a Cinderella Factor at play, although it can be debated if his non-household name will help him or hurt him in the minds of the voters.  The major point against him is his absence from the list of K leaders.

Roy Halladay - Toronto Blue Jays
11-7, 2.89 ERA, 127 Ks.  3rd in ERA, 4th (t) in wins, 3rd (t) in strikeouts.
Halladay has the cachet and the respect of the writers for being a stoic workhorse, as he’s comfortably in the lead for AL innings pitched.  In this day and age, Roy is a bit of an anomaly and a throwback, as his 7 complete games is something you would see on the back of a 1980’s baseball card. I have to think this will help him in the voting totals.

Cliff Lee - Cleveland Indians
13-2, 2.29 ERA, 110 Ks.  1st in wins, 2nd in ERA.
Cliff is a guy who has been a case study in mediocrity for his entire career…up until 2008.  The AL starter of the All-Star Game has an extremely attractive win-loss record and ERA, and thus should be considered at or near the top of the list of candidates.  He also has a sentimentality factor at play, as people love a story of a guy who had toiled for years before finally having that one legendary season.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - Boston Red Sox
11-1, 2.63 ERA, 83 Ks.  4th (t) in wins.
Dice-K would be 3rd in ERA if he qualified (which he will, barring a major injury).  For Red Sox fans, it’s almost inconceivable that this guy is on the list, as his command has been horrific at times.  Still, his W/L and ERA numbers are both extremely impressive.

Ervin Santana - Anaheim Angels
11-4, 3.37 ERA, 130 Ks.  4th (t) in wins, 2nd in Ks, 9th in ERA
Santana has been strikeout machine and pitches for the best (read: winningest) team in the league.  Spent years as a hyped power arm with raw potential, and is finally living up to the lofty projections.  Could win 20 games while pitching in the weak AL West.

Just making the cut:
Mike Mussina, Jon Lester, Joe Saunders, Francisco Rodriguez, Shaun Marcum

Factoring in both their numbers and the other qualities at play, I would rank them like this (most likely to win on top):

Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Justin Duchscherer
Ervin Santana
Daisuke Matsuzaka

Jon Lester’s amazing season continued last night in Seattle, with 7.1 shutout innings of the Mariners in his own stomping grounds. The Evergreen State native was, quite literally, in complete control, with zero walks in this outing. While the environment was definitely in his favor (an extreme pitcher’s park coupled with an extremely bad opposing team), the decreased walk rate continues to be the main reason for Lester’s success this season. Lester has not walked more than 3 batters in a game since April.

While most of the Red Sox offense came courtesy of the 8-9 hitters (Varitek and Lowrie), Manny Ramirez stroked 3 more singles in this game. Manny, who is now officially a polarizing hot-button, a non-stop talk radio subject after a botched outfield play in Anaheim this weekend, is hitting over .500 since his foray into the exhilarating sport of Geezer Tossing.

Up north, David Ortiz had yet another impressive night in the minor leagues, and is now 5/12 (.417) with 3 HRs, 4 walks, and only 2 strikeouts. He should be in the lineup this Friday against New York, who will be without one of their key bats.

Projo

While this may seem like a boon to the Red Sox in the eyes of some, keep in mind that David Aardsma has been the best Boston reliever not named Papelbon this year.  He has been very effective against both left and right handed hitters, aside from the occasional control hiccup.

Masterson, fom what we’ve seen in limited action, is a guy who the team will probably avoid using against left-handed hitters late in the game, so this move may actually handcuff Terry Francona a bit.  Not the type of news you wanted after a 3-game sweep in the West Coast, but shit tends to come in droves.

Casey Kelly, the high school shortstop/pitcher drafted in the first round by Boston in June, has signed and will report to the rookie squad in the Gulf Coast League.  The interesting portion of this story, and something that I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed before with a draft pick of this stature, is that the team still isn’t sure if he will ultimately become a pitcher or hitter.

The situation is this: Kelly wants to be a shortstop. The Red Sox think he should become a pitcher. Apparently, some sort of compromise has been reached, and Kelly will head to Florida as a shortstop for the GCL team, and will also play SS in the fall instructional league. However, the team still plans on having Kelly toe the rubber at some point in the future:

“Pitching we will expose Casey to at the right time, in the right place, and in the right environment,” said Epstein, adding that Kelly’s pitching would not necessarily interrupt his development at shortstop.

When it comes to player development, Theo’s minor league instructional staff have earned our trust with some impressive results over the past few years. However, this arrangement still makes me a tad uneasy. Frankly, I don’t understand how playing full time SS will not delay this kid’s development as a pitcher.

Perhaps this compromise was needed to sign him, in which case, you gotta do what you gotta do.

______________________________________

That thud you heard last night was David Ortiz hitting a line drive HR in a sold-out McCoy Stadium.

Amazingly, the Red Sox offense stepped up in his absence and increased production (.280/.353./.411 with Ortiz, .285/.361/.466 without), mostly thanks to guys named Drew and Pedroia, but it will still be nice to see him in the batters box in a week or two.

This All Star break stuff really eats my balls…

Anyway, over at the Sons of Sam Horn message board, they are having an auction for Curt’s Pitch. There are some pretty cool things that are available, from the awesome (A week at one of the member’s Cape houses) to the absurd (a member-designed tee shirt and a 40).

Head over and bid on something…it’s for a good cause. SoSH Auction for Curt’s Pitch

J.D Drew Named MVP of Longest All-Star Game in history

The right fielder stole the show in New York, going 2 for 4 with a HR and walk.

Game 1 at Fenway in October?

Side note: My quick observation on the fanfare for last night’s event in The Bronx. 10 years ago, Red Sox fans were bitter, jealous, and angry folks who were morbidly obsessed with their rivals, and Yankee fans had a more nonchalant, sophisticated take on the rivalry.

My, how things have changed.

If you tuned in to ESPN this evening to take in the annual All-Star Home Run Derby, you wouldn’t have seen some of the names you might have expected. There’s no A-Rod or Manny. No Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn. Luckily, a guy named Josh Hamilton put on the show of a lifetime, and Sports Illustrated’s Rick Reilly tried his hardest to flush his television career down the toilet, so the viewers got their money’s worth and more. But, lets face it: players are simply becoming more and more hesitant to enter the contest, for whatever reason.

Is there something to this? Does the Derby have some sort of swing-altering effect which negatively impacts a hitter’s game throughout the remainder of the season? Let’s take a look at the last 10 Derby winners (I’m picking the winners because they are the guys who took the most swings, and therefore would likely be most heavily impacted), and how they fared both before and after the All-Star Break.

1998 - Coors Field
Ken Griffey Jr.
First Half: .299/.382/.678
Second Half: .267/.345/.531
OPS Swing: -185 (720 PA)

1999 - Fenway Park
Ken Griffey Jr.
First Half: .310/.404/.620
Second Half: .255/.360/.522
OPS Swing: -142 (706 PA)

2000 - Turner Field
Sammy Sosa
First Half: .305/.388/.574
Second Half: .338/.428/.711
OPS Swing: +174 (705 PA)

2001 - Safeco Field
Luis Gonzales
First Half: .355/.443/.745
Second Half: .290/.412/.620
OPS Swing: -157 (728 PA)

2002 - Miller Park
Jason Giambi
First Half: .318/.430/.602
Second Half: .309/.442/.593
OPS Swing: +003 (689 PA)

2003 - U.S. Cellular
Garret Anderson
First Half: .316/.345/.597
Second Half: .313/.344/.463
OPS Swing: -136 (673 PA)

2004 - Minute Maid Park
Miguel Tejada
First Half: .311/.358/.506
Second Half: .311/.363/.566
OPS Swing: +066 (725 PA)

2005 - Comerica Park
Bobby Abreu
First Half: .307/.428/.526
Second Half: .260/.376./411
OPS Swing: -168 (719 PA)

2006 - PNC Park
Ryan Howard
First Half: .278/.341/.582
Second Half: .355/.509/.751
OPS Swing: +366 (704 PA)

2007 - AT&T Park
Vladimir Guerrero
First Half: .325/.416/.547
Second Half: .323/.387/.548
OPS Swing: -027 (660 PA)

What I find most interesting is not one of these guys suffered any kind of serious injury during their Derby seasons. Not even Ken Griffey, who was on a first name basis with just about every hospital employee in Seattle. The lowest plate appearance total was 660 from Vlad last season.

The weighted average OPS swing (change between the first half and second half of the season) is -21, which is a very insignificant amount, since we are dealing with OPS numbers in the 900-1100 range for these guys. 4 of the 10 players actually had better offensive numbers after the All-Star Break. Just looking at the lack of injuries and aggregate performance, one might say that the Derby shouldn’t have much of an effect on players at all.

However, there is one piece of evidence in the favor of the “Anti-Derby” camp: one Kenneth Griffey Junior. Griffey’s career 1st Half/2nd Half split is nearly down the middle: 926 OPS vs 914 OPS. However, during his 2 Derby seasons detailed above, he suffered a large decline in performance after the All Star Break.

Other than that, there is not much here that tells me that the Derby is a season killer. It may have hindered Ken Griffey a bit, but every player reacts differently to this type of thing.

Next July, grab a bat, gentlemen. They aren’t going to bite.

If you didn’t know who minor league outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin was before, you do now.

Lin was named Most Valuable Player in the Futures Game, an annual showcase of the best and brightest minor league baseball talent during the All-Star weekend.  The 19-year-old went 2 for 2 with a home run, and was reportedly booed by the troglodytes at the stadium.  In other words, he’s officially on the map.

Who is he, and what can he become?

Lin was a major international signing out of Taiwan last summer, and is currently hitting .251/.346/.373 with 26 steals in 32 attempts for Class A Greenville.  Above all else, he is known for his amazing raw athleticism.  Performance-wise, he has shown decent plate discipline for his age, excellent defense in CF (both in range and throwing arm), and great speed on the basepaths.

The only major hole in his game has been a lack of power, which is typical of young CF types.  As it stands, Lin could be the best outfield prospect in the Red Sox organization, with a ceiling surpassing that of Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish.

Keep an eye on him.

Last night’s drubbing of the Minnesota Twins was a much-needed break from the seemingly endless stream of 1-run games this team has endured recently. The therapeutic vitcory featured many oddities:

• Julio Lugo thwarting the well known but rarely understood infield fly rule, a play that made the ghost of George Wright tip his vintage Reds cap. (Sox fans, if you watched this play and didn’t feel a little more appreciation for Lugo, then I just don’t know what to say to you…)
• The worst hitter in modern MLB history hitting yet another home run.
• The umpires actually collaborating and admitting they were wrong after botching a centerfield catch all (something they failed to do when the Sox were playing in The Bronx last weekend).
• Twins manager Ron Gardenire exploding on two separate occasions, sort of like the Death Star.

In specific terms, this game satisfied the shit out of me. Today’s off-day is going to feel like the Friday after Thanksgiving, our bodies sluggish after becoming engorged with slaughtered animal carcasses. (My apologies to our vegan readers. Substitute “carcasses” with “butter-nut squash” in that last analogy).

After a sweep of the surprising Twins, let’s take a quick look at the current postseason odds, as seen by the two major sources for this type of projection.

Baseball Prospectus:

Tampa Bay: 91.72 %
Boston: 86.11 %
Chicago: 82.92 %
Anaheim: 59.31 %
Oakland: 39.63 %
New York: 12.96 %
Detroit: 11.61 %

Cool Standings

Chicago 80.6 %
Tampa Bay 73.4 %
Boston 72.1 %
Anaheim 60.7 %
Oakland 43.6 %
Minnesota 25.3 %
New York 18 %
Texas 10.1 %

Some clarification: the Baseball Prospectus odds factor in their 2008 PECOTA projections, while Cool Standings does not take player projections into account.

My take on a few items here:

The Oakland A’s essentially punted their season away when they traded their ace and another dependable starter for a handful of B-level prospects. It wasn’t necessarily a bad trade from my point of view, but it certainly isn’t going to help them make the playoffs this season. I think the timing was a little surprising, given the fact that the A’s were still very much “in it” when Billy Beane pulled the trigger. It will be interesting to see what happens with Rich Harden. I don’t think Beane is depraved enough to knowingly trade away a damaged player, but the deal leads me to believe that he didn’t have much confidence in Harden’s ability to stay healthy throughout 2008.

These odds do not take into account financial muscle or minor league trade bait, in which case you’d have to put a premium on the Yankees’ postseason odds. They will be actively trying to improve their team before July 31st, and they have the resources to do this.

By that same token, I think one would have to tack on a percentage point or two to Boston’s postseason odds. There is very little chance that Tampa Bay will trade for someone with a hefty contract (Matt Holliday, ect…), while the Red Sox don’t mind burning some dough to reach the ultimate prize.

Considering this, and picking a somewhat arbitrary number out of the air, I would put the Sox’ postseason chances at 85% at the moment.

Minnesota 5, Boston 6

The Boston Police Department has announced that they have apprehended one Esteban Ramirez (a.k.a. Manny’s Evil Twin) early Monday morning. Esteban was taken into custody at a local nursing home, where he was found terrorizing residents and having alcoholic beverages with Phil Rizzuto. Esteban, known for his hot-temper, love of the New York Yankees, and lack of baseball playing ability, has admitted to kidnapping his twin during the last road trip in Houston, and impersonating the slugger while the team played in Tampa and The Bronx. Esteban will be arraigned today at the Suffolk County courthouse.

…

Alright, let’s move on to real-life events. If last night’s dramatic win wasn’t the best of the season, it was undoubtedly in the Top 3. There were just too many things to love about the game. Let’s list them out, starting with the most obvious:

Manny’s heroic hit (again) - It couldn’t have come at a better time, as Manny hasn’t had much positive press lately. Not only was there the McCromick issue which we beat to the ground, but there were also some troubling rumors about a particular pinch-hit at-bat against Mariano Rivera in The Bronx. While Mariano can make any hitter look silly, a reasonable person could watch the at-bat and infer that Manny did not intend to swing at any pitches. After the 8th inning shot over the green monster, that all seems like ancient history.

Lester’s K on Pitch #117 - ‘Twas a gutsy performance for Jon Lester last night. That seems like such a canned piece of analysis, doesn’t it? “Gutsy” is typically a lazy term used to describe a pitcher who just gave up a bunch of runs in 6+ innings while his team won the game. In this case, however, I feel justified in using the adjective. At a time when he arguably should have been in the clubhouse shower, Lester had his most critical strikeout of the game in the 8th inning with two men on, on a beautiful two-seamer below the knees.

Brandon Moss developing into a “clutch” hitter - We’ve seen it happen half a world away back in March. All evidence is pointing to Moss being the type of hitter who remains steady and focused in intense scenarios (call it whatever you wish). His .400/.438/.667 averages in a small sample of close and late situations doesn’t hurt the case.

Jacoby Ellsbury heating up - He spoiled us with his torrid play late last season and early this year, so it should be no surprise that Jacoby’s first major slump caused a huge stir around these parts. It was great to see him having a big night, scoring 2 runs on a single and a double. Ellsbury is hitting .333/.364/.381 in his last 5 games.

Plagued by a string of sub-par relief performances, Theo Epstein has decided to look internally to solve the problem. Top prospect Justin Masterson has been sent down to AAA Pawtucket for the purpose of converting him to the bullpen in 2008.

If Masterson is to add value to the team as the late-inning set up guy envisioned by the brass, he will need to change his approach this season, against left-handed batters in particular. In 2008, Justin has been walking a large amount of the lefties he has faced (.379 OBP vs LH, 18/21 K/BB), perhaps trying his best to pitch around the tougher hitters.

There is hope, as Masterson’s career minor league walk rate (2.3 BB/9) is much lower than the alarming rate he has shown in a small sample of big league innings this season (4.7 BB/9). If he can challenge lefties a bit more with that 94 MPH sinker, he could very well become a reliable bullpen arm for the stretch run.

However, if he doesn’t find the strike zone when called upon in the late innings, he just becomes another name to add to the list of heart-attack inducing Red Sox relievers. He becomes a taxpaying citizen in the municipality of Aardsmaville.

Oh, and if anyone is worried about the implications on Masterson’s future role with the Sox, don’t be. From the ProJo article:

While Masterson’s long-term future is still as a starting pitcher, he will pitch relief the rest of the season.

The Boston Red Sox will send seven representatives to this year’s All-Star Game in The Bronx. The defending World Champions were expected to have a heavy representation in the 2008 edition of the Mid Summer Classic, but the identity of one of the players comes as a bit of a surprise, and dare I say it, an example of a glaring flaw in the system.

Your 2008 Boston All-Stars:

David Ortiz
He hasn’t had his typical Herculean season thus far, and he’s missed time with an injury. But, he’s more or less the 21st Century Cal Ripken: amicable and wildly popular with the fans, and an ambassador of the game. It’s a moot point, as he’s unable to play this year.

Kevin Youkilis
The exact opposite of David Ortiz. Not the most popular guy in the game, but he does have a 138 OPS+ to go along with Gold Glove defense. A fine choice at a surprisingly thin position.

Dustin Pedroia
A month ago today, I would have said DP is the least deserving All-Star in the bunch. Wow, have things changed. Dustin has been the hottest hitter in baseball, hitting .467/.490/.739 since Flag Day. A deserving choice for second base.

Manny Ramirez
The elephant in the corner is that Manny is in a severe slump, hitting .143/.333/.257 in his last 11 games. But, he’s uber-popular and another fan choice, and his year has been decent overall. There are more deserving outfielders, but Manny’s election is not a disgrace by any means.

J.D. Drew
Here’s the selection I was hoping for. I wasn’t really sure J.D. would make it, as his hitting has leveled off recently and there is no shortage of talented outfielders in the American League. If you’ve been reading this blog at all in the past calendar year, you’ll know that this guy has been a favorite of mine for a while. Fortunately, the stars have aligned and Drew will get his very first All-Star nomination via the Player Vote (more on this later).

Jonathan Papelbon
Despite coughing up a few seeing-eye singles in the Bronx last night, Papelbon is on a short list of elite relief pitchers in baseball, and deserves to represent his league. Another guy elected via the Player Vote.

Jason Varitek
For some background, check out Jeff’s piece on Varitek here. On a pure numbers basis ‘Tek is probably the least deserving All-Star I have ever seen in my lifetime. Varitek currently profiles as a decent defensive catcher with a sub-par throwing arm, and his offensive numbers in 2008 are atrocious. There are six or seven catchers in the American League who have had better seasons than Jason. Varitek was elected by the aforementioned Player Vote, which is a new policy used in tandem with Bud Selig’s much-maligned brainchild: awarding World Series home field advantage to the winner. The players felt that Varitek is the 2nd best catcher in the league this year behind starter Joe Mauer.

Normally, I don’t really like to criticize the evaluations of players. These guys are playing professional baseball, and I stopped playing the sport when I was 15. I’m typing this in an office where I should be doing real work, and the people who voted for Jason Varitek live and breathe the game of baseball at its highest level. I am the definition of “an untrained eye”. I just can’t reconcile the numbers with the intangibles in this case. I just can’t imagine a scenario where Varitek’s contributions to Boston in 2008 have more significant than, say, A.J. Pierzynski’s in Chicago.

Ultimately, as a Red Sox fan, I am happy for Varitek on some level. There is just an air of awkwardness surrounding his inclusion on the roster, and it’s unfortunate that there will likely be 100 blogs and articles echoing my thoughts in the last few paragraphs here.

It’s been a while since I rapped at y’all, but I had something that I’ll be sharing with you over the course of the next few months, called…

Player Skill Assessments

This part is pretty dry, so you can skip ahead if you just want to see what the results are.

Basically this whole project came into being when I was watching a Red Sox game where Julio Lugo seemed to destroy everything he touched, like some sort of reverse Midas (everything he touched turned to shit). Someone I was talking to at the time, Tom, asked if Lugo was the most useless player in the history of baseball, to which I answered in the affirmative.

The next morning, I got to thinking…is he even the most useless player on the Red Sox? I mean, his paycheck keeps him in the lineup, but if they made the same amount of money, wouldn’t he still start over Cora? How good or bad is he given that shortstops in the American League hit somewhere at the level of your really good Little League player (you know, the kid that’s shaving at age 12, and when he’s not playing SS, he’s pitching faster than any Little Leaguer should, terrifying Johnny who would rather be doing anything but playing Little League? I digress)?

So after some thought, and some reading, I figured 13 “skills”…real quick metrics that are both easy to figure out, and tell you something very straight forward. Then I broke them into three categories…at bat, strike zone management, and on the bases. These 13 skills (I’m not quoting the whole time, keep in mind that skills is just the best word I could think of) were then compared to the league average at the position he played. So, if Lugo was truly the worst player to ever be formed by carbon, he would at least show up to be solidly below average against his exact contemporaries.

As it turns out, Lugo is pretty good at some things, bad at others. Egg on my face, yo.

The thirteen skills are:
At bat:
Batting average
On base percentage
Slugging percentage
I assume you know what these are; otherwise I’d doubt you would be reading this blog.
Iso – Slugging with singles removed
BABIP – Batting average on balls in play (the assumption being that hitters have some control over this, based on being the ones that actually put the ball in play)
Contact rate – This is the percentage of plate appearances where the hitter actually puts in ball in play. Having a low contact rate in and of itself isn’t a bad thing, but the trend is very important. In this exercise, I include the league average just for context, more than something that tells us anything important about the players’ skill set. But I will include pretty graphs!

Strike Zone management
BB% - This is unintentional walk rate with hit by pitches added in. The reason that I include HBP is that there is some evidence that certain hitters tend to absorb more pitches than others, and it’s not just because the hitter is a jerk. I mean, look at Craig Biggio.
K% - Fairly straight forward
K: BB – Strikeouts per walk. This is also fairly straight forward…remember, high numbers are bad!

On the bases
R/TOB – Runs scored as a percentage of times on base. This doesn’t really recognize a repeatable skill per se. Runs are as much individual function as team, but slow and bad base runners really don’t score as much as fast/good ones. League average is important here.
Spd – Bill James’ speed score. It’s found in the 1987 Baseball Abstract, and basically puts five speed factors (stolen base%, stolen base frequency, runs, triples, and avoiding double plays) on a 10 point scale and averaged. Its name is kind of a misnomer, as it doesn’t measure speed as much as the player’s ability to make use of his speed.
SB% - Stolen base percentage
Sb.tob – Frequency of stolen base attempts. This doesn’t measure much except the percentage of times the player decides to run for the hills

This isn’t meant to do anything analytical other than to create a type of profile for the player. There are 100’s of others I might have included, but didn’t…but I’m satisfied with what I have for right now. Without further ado…

Jason Varitek and the Red Sox catchers

I mean, they totally suck, right?

Well, Kevin Cash has had a history of being just awful, but Varitek has been a little different. His history with the Red Sox is almost as long as time (he made his MLB debut with the Sox in 1997 when he was 25), so there is a certain segment of the population don’t realize there were Red Sox catchers before Varitek.

After three years of perfectly meh baseball, he broke his elbow in 2001 diving for a popup that knocked him out for the season. Unfortunately, this was right as he was starting to reach his potential as a hitter, and was one of the most productive catchers with the bat in baseball.

The next season he was still recovering, and in 2003, he broke out, having his first really good full season of his career. Hitting 9th over 50% of the time.

This is where the story becomes interesting…Jason Varitek became a masterful handler of the pitching staff! Between winning the World Series, being named captain, and hiring the PR firm of Francona and Schilling, Varitek became more of an entity…praised for his defensive prowess (winning a Gold Glove in 2005) despite not being able to throw at all (seriously, check his SB numbers…it wasn’t all Derek Lowe’s fault). A Cult of Personality was built around Varitek, to the point that in 05-07, he wasn’t hitting much, and was still called one of the most valuable catchers in baseball.

Whatever…my theory is that he does do a lot of homework, but there is no objective evidence that he makes pitchers better (which isn’t to say he doesn’t, just no one really knows if he does), and the only reason why he was given the praise he was for his defense was because of his offense (middling catchers never get praise, the great hitters, and the terrible ones do, with the later because there needs to be some reason to keep them in the lineup if they can’t hit their weight).

Sorry for the digression…but Kevin Cash’s awfulness is well documented and is easy to recognize without this exercise. Varitek is a little trickier, because his reputation is so good, and he’s getting old. A few years ago (when he signed the 4yr/$40 million contract), I found that there were just no catchers that even caught at age 36, let alone didn’t have a steep decline. I think the only ones I could really find were Bill Dickey and Carlton Fisk or something like that…either way the number wasn’t very high. Varitek is the benefit of modernized training and such, and with an iconic reputation…which is never easy to let go. It’s important to put into context what Varitek actually brings to the ball club.

At Bat

The reddish color means below league average.

Without much of a surprise, the two men managing the tools of ignorance for the Red Sox just aren’t hitting a lot. Cash probably wouldn’t be able to homer if he was playing baseball in a silo (or if Juan Cruz threw the ball 1,000 miles an hour down the middle), but at the very least, it looks like Varitek’s negative rates are on the shoulders of a low batting average.

Unfortunately, his batting average is almost 20% below were the league’s catchers (not exactly known for their hitting prowess) are hitting. What’s more troubling is his contact rate.

Now, I said earlier (in case you skipped) that a low contact rate, even compared to league, isn’t bad…it just means you walk, and strike out a lot. Where Varitek’s true offensive horror lies not in a low batting average or a low contact rate, but in a steady contact rate that hasn’t been able to stop his batting average from bottoming out.

Look at Varitek’s trend throughout his career…

His contact rate isn’t significantly lower than it ever has been…so there isn’t evidence that his bat has slowed to the point that he’s being overmatched. There is evidence that once he makes contact, the ball just isn’t going many places other than into a fielder’s mitt. His BABIP is low, which could either mean luck, or not being able to hit the ball hard enough on the line to make outs into singles.

One “good” sign is that Tek’s isolated slugging is still above average, even if it’s not as high as it was in his 03-05 peak.

Strike Zone Management

I’ve always wondered why catcher’s walk and strike out rates were so poor. I think it is because the physical demands of the position are so overwhelming that it completely mitigates their more intimate knowledge of the strike zone

Consistent with Red Sox offensive policy, both Cash and Varitek can take a walk. They also strike out a lot (which leads to their low contact rates), but it has the added benefit of making the opposing pitcher work and saving their legs for more important things like squatting. One unspoken downside to making right turns to the dugout is that it leads to more bench time, which leaves one susceptible to the hot foot, among other pranks.

On the bases

I know Varitek used to be able to run, but he doesn’t much anymore. His run rate is pretty horrifying, but it gets better when you notice that he generally hits in front of Crisp (.434 slug), Lugo (.338 slug) and Ellsbury (.385 slug). Still, his run rate is the lowest among Red Sox regulars, and if not for Alex Cora, it would be the lowest on the team. That includes Sean Casey’s glacial ass.

He’s 36 years old, and any thought of being John Waltham is long gone…there are a lot of miles on his legs, so it’s not so much “He runs well for a catcher” as much as “Hey Bill, Tek doesn’t need a wheelchair yet”. Francona has as much do to with Varitek and Cash being anchored to first when they get there as they catchers themselves do.

Outlook
Varitek has always been streaky, but he’s looked awful at the plate for the last two months. What was a foregone conclusion at the beginning of the off-season…re-signing Varitek…should now be discussed in a good amount of detail. Is it worth paying Varitek $5 million a year to hit .220 when you could pay George Kottaras $400k to hit .210?

Either way, there isn’t any better internal option, with Cash being worse with the bat or seems to be happy in his “work once a week chasing after the goddamn knuckleball” role. Kottaras and Dusty Brown aren’t nearly good enough to jettison Cash and relegate Varitek to the bench.

Truthfully, the Red Sox have no option for 2008…they have to pray that this is bottom right now, and that Varitek is gearing up for one of his .300/.410/.520 stretches and have it last for more than 7 games or so (like his last one did). The real danger of Varitek is that he’s going to hit just well enough to justify a multi-year contract, and we have to watch the death spasms of a pretty good career play out on a Red Sox team that is rebuilding the offense that has so long centered on Manny Ramirez.