Last night’s drubbing of the Minnesota Twins was a much-needed break from the seemingly endless stream of 1-run games this team has endured recently. The therapeutic vitcory featured many oddities:

• Julio Lugo thwarting the well known but rarely understood infield fly rule, a play that made the ghost of George Wright tip his vintage Reds cap. (Sox fans, if you watched this play and didn’t feel a little more appreciation for Lugo, then I just don’t know what to say to you…)
• The worst hitter in modern MLB history hitting yet another home run.
• The umpires actually collaborating and admitting they were wrong after botching a centerfield catch all (something they failed to do when the Sox were playing in The Bronx last weekend).
• Twins manager Ron Gardenire exploding on two separate occasions, sort of like the Death Star.

In specific terms, this game satisfied the shit out of me. Today’s off-day is going to feel like the Friday after Thanksgiving, our bodies sluggish after becoming engorged with slaughtered animal carcasses. (My apologies to our vegan readers. Substitute “carcasses” with “butter-nut squash” in that last analogy).

After a sweep of the surprising Twins, let’s take a quick look at the current postseason odds, as seen by the two major sources for this type of projection.

Baseball Prospectus:

Tampa Bay: 91.72 %
Boston: 86.11 %
Chicago: 82.92 %
Anaheim: 59.31 %
Oakland: 39.63 %
New York: 12.96 %
Detroit: 11.61 %

Cool Standings

Chicago 80.6 %
Tampa Bay 73.4 %
Boston 72.1 %
Anaheim 60.7 %
Oakland 43.6 %
Minnesota 25.3 %
New York 18 %
Texas 10.1 %

Some clarification: the Baseball Prospectus odds factor in their 2008 PECOTA projections, while Cool Standings does not take player projections into account.

My take on a few items here:

The Oakland A’s essentially punted their season away when they traded their ace and another dependable starter for a handful of B-level prospects. It wasn’t necessarily a bad trade from my point of view, but it certainly isn’t going to help them make the playoffs this season. I think the timing was a little surprising, given the fact that the A’s were still very much “in it” when Billy Beane pulled the trigger. It will be interesting to see what happens with Rich Harden. I don’t think Beane is depraved enough to knowingly trade away a damaged player, but the deal leads me to believe that he didn’t have much confidence in Harden’s ability to stay healthy throughout 2008.

These odds do not take into account financial muscle or minor league trade bait, in which case you’d have to put a premium on the Yankees’ postseason odds. They will be actively trying to improve their team before July 31st, and they have the resources to do this.

By that same token, I think one would have to tack on a percentage point or two to Boston’s postseason odds. There is very little chance that Tampa Bay will trade for someone with a hefty contract (Matt Holliday, ect…), while the Red Sox don’t mind burning some dough to reach the ultimate prize.

Considering this, and picking a somewhat arbitrary number out of the air, I would put the Sox’ postseason chances at 85% at the moment.