If you tuned in to ESPN this evening to take in the annual All-Star Home Run Derby, you wouldn’t have seen some of the names you might have expected. There’s no A-Rod or Manny. No Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn. Luckily, a guy named Josh Hamilton put on the show of a lifetime, and Sports Illustrated’s Rick Reilly tried his hardest to flush his television career down the toilet, so the viewers got their money’s worth and more. But, lets face it: players are simply becoming more and more hesitant to enter the contest, for whatever reason.

Is there something to this? Does the Derby have some sort of swing-altering effect which negatively impacts a hitter’s game throughout the remainder of the season? Let’s take a look at the last 10 Derby winners (I’m picking the winners because they are the guys who took the most swings, and therefore would likely be most heavily impacted), and how they fared both before and after the All-Star Break.

1998 – Coors Field
Ken Griffey Jr.
First Half: .299/.382/.678
Second Half: .267/.345/.531
OPS Swing: -185 (720 PA)

1999 – Fenway Park
Ken Griffey Jr.
First Half: .310/.404/.620
Second Half: .255/.360/.522
OPS Swing: -142 (706 PA)

2000 – Turner Field
Sammy Sosa
First Half: .305/.388/.574
Second Half: .338/.428/.711
OPS Swing: +174 (705 PA)

2001 – Safeco Field
Luis Gonzales
First Half: .355/.443/.745
Second Half: .290/.412/.620
OPS Swing: -157 (728 PA)

2002 – Miller Park
Jason Giambi
First Half: .318/.430/.602
Second Half: .309/.442/.593
OPS Swing: +003 (689 PA)

2003 – U.S. Cellular
Garret Anderson
First Half: .316/.345/.597
Second Half: .313/.344/.463
OPS Swing: -136 (673 PA)

2004 – Minute Maid Park
Miguel Tejada
First Half: .311/.358/.506
Second Half: .311/.363/.566
OPS Swing: +066 (725 PA)

2005 – Comerica Park
Bobby Abreu
First Half: .307/.428/.526
Second Half: .260/.376./411
OPS Swing: -168 (719 PA)

2006 – PNC Park
Ryan Howard
First Half: .278/.341/.582
Second Half: .355/.509/.751
OPS Swing: +366 (704 PA)

2007 – AT&T Park
Vladimir Guerrero
First Half: .325/.416/.547
Second Half: .323/.387/.548
OPS Swing: -027 (660 PA)

What I find most interesting is not one of these guys suffered any kind of serious injury during their Derby seasons. Not even Ken Griffey, who was on a first name basis with just about every hospital employee in Seattle. The lowest plate appearance total was 660 from Vlad last season.

The weighted average OPS swing (change between the first half and second half of the season) is -21, which is a very insignificant amount, since we are dealing with OPS numbers in the 900-1100 range for these guys. 4 of the 10 players actually had better offensive numbers after the All-Star Break. Just looking at the lack of injuries and aggregate performance, one might say that the Derby shouldn’t have much of an effect on players at all.

However, there is one piece of evidence in the favor of the “Anti-Derby” camp: one Kenneth Griffey Junior. Griffey’s career 1st Half/2nd Half split is nearly down the middle: 926 OPS vs 914 OPS. However, during his 2 Derby seasons detailed above, he suffered a large decline in performance after the All Star Break.

Other than that, there is not much here that tells me that the Derby is a season killer. It may have hindered Ken Griffey a bit, but every player reacts differently to this type of thing.

Next July, grab a bat, gentlemen. They aren’t going to bite.

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