After Daisuke Matsuzaka notched his 11th victory of the season last night in Seattle, it might be interesting to sneak a preliminary gander at the American League Cy Young Award race. As early as it is, this is typically the time of year where a handful of guys have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

Note: I’m not going to delve too deeply into things like K/BB or FIP or anything like that, because they likely won’t be considered by the voters, not nearly as much as the Triple Crown stats (wins, Ks, ERA).

Your major candidates in alphabetical order, as of 7/23/08:

Justin Duchscherer – Oakland A’s
10-6, 1.87 ERA.  1st in ERA.
The league leader in ERA will always be considered a strong candidate for the award (as long as he has a winning record, of course), and Justin has nearly a half-run lead on the runner up.  The Duke also has a bit of a Cinderella Factor at play, although it can be debated if his non-household name will help him or hurt him in the minds of the voters.  The major point against him is his absence from the list of K leaders.

Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays
11-7, 2.89 ERA, 127 Ks.  3rd in ERA, 4th (t) in wins, 3rd (t) in strikeouts.
Halladay has the cachet and the respect of the writers for being a stoic workhorse, as he’s comfortably in the lead for AL innings pitched.  In this day and age, Roy is a bit of an anomaly and a throwback, as his 7 complete games is something you would see on the back of a 1980’s baseball card. I have to think this will help him in the voting totals.

Cliff Lee – Cleveland Indians
13-2, 2.29 ERA, 110 Ks.  1st in wins, 2nd in ERA.
Cliff is a guy who has been a case study in mediocrity for his entire career…up until 2008.  The AL starter of the All-Star Game has an extremely attractive win-loss record and ERA, and thus should be considered at or near the top of the list of candidates.  He also has a sentimentality factor at play, as people love a story of a guy who had toiled for years before finally having that one legendary season.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Boston Red Sox
11-1, 2.63 ERA, 83 Ks.  4th (t) in wins.
Dice-K would be 3rd in ERA if he qualified (which he will, barring a major injury).  For Red Sox fans, it’s almost inconceivable that this guy is on the list, as his command has been horrific at times.  Still, his W/L and ERA numbers are both extremely impressive.

Ervin Santana – Anaheim Angels
11-4, 3.37 ERA, 130 Ks.  4th (t) in wins, 2nd in Ks, 9th in ERA
Santana has been strikeout machine and pitches for the best (read: winningest) team in the league.  Spent years as a hyped power arm with raw potential, and is finally living up to the lofty projections.  Could win 20 games while pitching in the weak AL West.

Just making the cut:
Mike Mussina, Jon Lester, Joe Saunders, Francisco Rodriguez, Shaun Marcum

Factoring in both their numbers and the other qualities at play, I would rank them like this (most likely to win on top):

Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Justin Duchscherer
Ervin Santana
Daisuke Matsuzaka

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