Once again, the greatest rivalry in American sports will unfold on the field.  Maybe it’s just me, but there seems to be an unusual air of indifference surrounding these games.  It could be the circumstances: here we are in late July, and the AL East is not the 2-team show we have grown accustomed to in the past decade.

Playoff odds be damned, each of baseball’s two richest teams could easily find themselves sitting out this October.  So, while this weekend’s series appears to have less national fanfare and sensationalism than usual, it is ironically the most important stretch of games these two teams have played against each other in quite some time.

Let’s look at tonight’s starters:

Josh Beckett
What we’ve seen from #19 in 2008 is a season somewhere in between his Cy Young caliber 2007 and his replacement level performance in 2006.  He’s relying almost exclusively on his fastball and 90 MPH changeup to retire hitters, and there have been occasional problems as a result of this.

The most frustrating thing about Josh’s outings: every fan watching him suddenly becomes a pitching coach.  “Throw the curveball, Josh!  It’s that easy, just throw more curveballs!  Why won’t Varitek call for the curveball?!! IF ONLY HE WOULD THROW MORE CURVEBALLS, HE WOULD WIN THIRTY GAMES!!  WHY DOESN’T HE REALIZE THAT??!”  Sadly, if it were really that easy, I’m sure he’d be doing it.  Nobody really knows why Josh has thrown fewer curveballs this season.

Anyway, he is in the midst of a tough patch. In his last 4 starts, Beckett has only struck out 16 hitters in 26 innings (to go along with a 4.85 ERA).

Joba Chamberlain
The Round-Skulled One is coming off of a strong start against Oakland.  As a starter, Joba has been impressive in most areas. His fastball and slider are still quite strong even when Chamberlain throws 5+ innings,  as evidenced by his 10.2 K/9 as a starter.  His one weakness has been the occasional lack of control (he averages 4.2 walks per 9 innings), and he had some difficulty with this in his one start against Boston earlier this month.  He has yet to throw more than 6.2 innings in a single outing.

Boston Offense
As you are probably aware, David Ortiz will make his long awaited return the the Red Sox lineup tonight, a huge boost to a team that is already 2nd in the league in runs scored.

On the flipside, Manny Ramirez sat out Wednesday’s game with a sore knee, and his status for tonight is unknown.  There are no shortage of skeptics of the veracity of Manny’s knee issues.  I’m hoping Wednesday was just a ploy for Manny to get an extra day off, and he’ll be 100% and ready to go tonight.  Everyone else in the lineup is pretty much healthy and ready to go.

New York Offense
With Jorge Posada’s injury, the Yankees will see more at bats from the likes of Richie Sexson, Wilson Betemit, and Chad Moeller.  This three-headed monster might add value with the glove in certain areas, but is a sizable downgrade at the plate.   Left-fielder Brett Gardener has been a quivering mass of offensive ineptitude this season (.161/.238/.179), resulting in the awkward backtracking of “Free Brett” mantras from New Haven to Atlantic City.

On the plus side for NY, Robinson Cano has been turning it around, and is looking more like the guy we’ve seen at the plate in the past two seasons.  The flashy infielder is hitting .358/.382/.537 in his last 33 games.  A-Rod, despite his unusual taste in trim, is still putting up numbers like one would expect from the best all-around player in the league.

Prediction:
An unexpected slug-fest.  I’ll decline to pick a winner, but I will say that each team in Game 1 will score more than 6 runs.   Boston’s patient bats will give Joba trouble, and Beckett will leave one or two fastballs in places where they shouldn’t be.