If a Trade Were to Happen, Could Our AAA Outfielders Step Up?
In spite of the endless ocean of drama and hand wringing, Manny Ramirez continues to pound the ball. But, we’ve all seen this movie several times already, right? Late July, Manny makes a trade request or pisses someone off, the rumor mill churns at centrifuge-like speeds, and then nothing happens. Both sides shrug off the whole fiasco and get back to business.
Given his contract requirements and 10-5 status, this year’s episode of the Mid-Season Manny Circus will probably not be any different from those in the past. In the unlikely event that the team actually does trade him, can his absence in the lineup be filled internally? Most of the trade speculation has involved names such as Matt Holliday and Pat Burrell, i.e. heavy-hitting outfielders with large contracts. However, could the Sox go a different route, and receive prospects and bullpen help instead of a big-name corner OF?
As it stands, there are quite a few OF/1B types in AAA Pawtucket who have been putting on a summer-long laser show at McCoy Stadium with their bats. Two guys in particular seem very interesting. I’m referring to Brandon Moss and Jeff Bailey.
The scenario I envision would be a LH/RH platoon between the left-handed Moss and right-handed Bailey. Using the MLE calculator at www.minorleaguesplits.com, we can get a crude idea of how these guys’ split numbers translate from McCoy Stadium to Fenway Park. Keep in mind that Minor League Equivalencies are little more than an a wild educated guess, but they do help shine some perspective on minor league statistics.
Against right-handed AAA pitching, Brandon Moss has hit .297/.363/.613. His MLE is .261/.318/.475. Pedestrian numbers, but they seem fairly realistic for a guy like Moss. He’d likely hit for less power but get on base more often. Jeff Bailey has hit .318/.393/.617 against AAA left-handed pitching, which translates to a MLE of .279/.337/.524. Impressive power numbers, and they don’t seem outrageous for a guy like Bailey at Fenway Park.
The combined MLE for this proposed two-headed AAAA monstrosity? .270/.327/.522, an OPS around 850.
The expectation is that Manny would give you an OPS of around 900, but when you’re trading away a guy like him you have to expect to take at least a modest hit in overall offensive production. Guys like Moss and Bailey would be better in the field than Manny, and this type of move would save the Red Sox a lot of money (not to mention the prospects we could get in return for Manny).
My thoughts? The Sox should probably hold on to Ramirez, assuming their #1 goal is to win a second consecutive championship this fall. However, if the clubhouse and the front office tensions have become absolutely unbearable and they must deal him, some creativity could make this trade an attractive one for Boston in the long term.
