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By Jimmy, 8/28/2008 5:18 pm

Boston 2
New York 3

You know what? Good for them. The final Red Sox-Yankees game ever at Yankee Stadium proved to be a joyous one of the Bronx faithful. After watching the Red Sox take the first two games of the series and effectively squelching New York’s playoff hopes, it was heartwarming to see the Yankees have their inspirational “Rudy moment ” this afternoon. Hopefully, today’s events will make the final memories of the Stadium less dreary for our cousins in the south.

Rico from Jersey City? Joey from Staten Island? Listen, put down that Nathan’s hot dog and shut off the engine on that suped-up Honda Civic hatchback for a moment, I have something to say to you. Congratulations, good sirs, and “salute”.

I have thoughts on several items from today’s game, most of them negative.

Alex Cora
The eventual winning run reached base in the 9th inning via a grounder up the middle, one which most shortstops in the major leagues would have handled. Now, when a team has a no-hit shortstop (and he is a no-hit shortstop, despite his currently inflated OBP) on their major league roster, the implication is that they should be at least above average defensively. Alex is a sub-par defensive shortstop, and he is also sub-par in every other category. He does not excel in anything related to hitting, fielding, or running. It is my hope that after this season ends, the Red Sox will not carry someone like this on their 25-man roster ever again.

Jonothan Papelbon
Son, you have to put that 0-2 pitch somewhere else. Especially to a hitter like Jason Giambi, a chemically engineered cyborg created by the NSA for the sole purpose of beating the Red Sox. If it’s Jose Molina at the plate, sure, burn another one down the middle and let the fat little bastard try and hit it. But when dealing with hormone-infused cattle like Giambi, you sometimes have to get creative, okay?

Hideki Okajima
Look, I told you before, it was Jon Lester’s God-given right to win this game for all that is holy and righteous, and you stole that from him! God dammit, YOU STOLE THAT FROM HIM!!! Seriously, no, I’m not furious at Okajima. I think think he was poorly used in this game, and I think Terry Francona should have played this one differently and handed the ball to Masterson in that situation (no outs and a man on second). With men on second base, hitters have hit .318/.400/.455 against Okajima in the past 2 years. Granted, it’s only 26 plate appearances, but it might not be a fluke, since his other splits are decent across the board.

When all is said and done, a banged-up skeleton crew Red Sox team strolled into the ultimate hostile environment and took two critical games out of three against a motivated Yankees squad.

We can’t ask for much more.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 8/27/2008 12:51 pm

Back in my cynical days, I proposed the theory that 75% of our population consists of idiots and assholes. Occasionally, I waiver back and forth on this, depending on my mood. I will say this: if you need any evidence of the above theory, just observe the crowd at a Major League Baseball game.

I sincerely hope this doesn’t come off as an elitist rant. I’m a normal American male, just like you, pal. I’m middle class by every definition. I Support Our Troops. I’m on medication when I probably shouldn’t be. I own an iPod, on which you will find mostly illegitimately-acquired material. I like sushi and CSI. I enjoy sniffing my neighbors underwear when no one else is in the laundry room. I enjoy writing existentialist poems using my blood as ink, and mailing them to ex-girlfriends. I…well, you get the point. I’m just like you.

Last night, the folks at Yankee Stadium were mercilessly booing A-Rod. Granted, he grounded into a double play at the worst possible time, and struck out to end the game, but the heckling was building up to a crescendo long before these events occurred. A-Rod, with his 160 OPS+ and his MVP caliber numbers, was the most hated person on the field last night. Jon Papelbon could run onto the field wearing George Steinbrenner’s drool bucket as a hat and a tee shirt with the words “Rivera Sucks”, and he’d be less of a pariah in The Bronx than A-Rod.  Why does Rodriguez get this treatment from the fans? Is it a jealousy factor, where Joe Fan simply cannot stand seeing a guy with zero college education raking in over $30 million a year? Is it because A-Rod did the unspeakable, and (gasp) violated the sanctity of marriage? Or, could it be his lack of Derek Jeter-esque fist pumps and inspirational quotes about ghosts in Monument Park? The fact that he simply doesn’t “know how to win”?

Look, A-Rod has a RC/9 of 8.6 which is just about what you get if you combine Derek Jeter and Robbie Cano’s 2008 numbers. The man who is often criticized for his lack of clutch hits is hitting .294/.370/.513 in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. Simply put, New York would be fighting with Baltimore for last place if they had someone like Scott Brosious instead of A-Rod. Yet, he bears the brunt of the agony from troglodytes at the Stadium, while Derek Jeter receives a paycheck just as vulgar, hits like a glorified #9 guy, and displays the infield range of a giant sequoia.

This incident might have involved Yankee fans specifically, but my rant is not just about the tank-top wearing denizens of the Tri-State Area. No, this is about a culture which also exists in places like Philadelphia, Chicago, and yes…Boston. I’ve blasted the same type of fan attitude towards the likes of Manny Ramirez, J.D. Drew, Mo Vaughn before them, and Wade Boggs before him. Why is it in our nature to criticize the best and brightest players, all the while ignoring the underperforming dead weight which is the true reason for the team’s lack of success?

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By Jimmy, 8/26/2008 2:28 pm

Check out Part 1 (the starting pitcher comparison) here. Let’s now move on to the other positions.

Catcher
Jason Varitek/Kevin Cash vs. Ivan Rodriguez/Jose Molina

As I noted a couple of weeks ago, I’ll leave pitch-calling abilities out of this discussion, since they manifest themselves in the pitchers’ numbers.

In his last 10 games, Varitek is hitting .300/.417/.633 with 3 HRs. Coincidentally (or perhaps not so much) since the news of his pending divorce became public, the captain has been raking. However, there is no life event so catastrophic that would ever turn Kevin Cash into a hitter. Alas, Wakefield pitches tonight, and with him comes 4 automatic outs in the form of Ca$h.

With Rodgriguez and Molina behind the plate, the Red Sox will not be able to use the running game to their advantage. Hey, don’t laugh: the Sox are second in the league in steals this season. Offensively, I think we can safely say that the Yankees duo is a bit more reliable, Pudge’s empty batting average notwithstanding.

Advantage: New York.

First Base
Kevin Youkilis vs. Jason Giambi

The image of Jason Giambi taking swings at the short RF porch in The Toilet is an imposing one. The Walking Chemistry Set has a slugging % of .506 at home this season, and has rebounded nicely from a terrible season in 2007. Youkilis, however, is among the best players in the league right now. He’s at the top of his game, both offensively and defensively.

Advantage: Boston

Second Base
Dustin Pedroia vs. Robinson Cano

Even though Robbie Cano is having a lackluster season, he’s still someone who I feel can hurt the opposition at any time. He’s a nifty defender who can’t seem to get his head on straight at the plate, but he has been on a bit of a tear recently. Pedroia, however, has been consistent all season long.

Advantage: Boston

Shortstop
Alex Cora vs. Derek Jeter

I’ll assume that J.D. Drew (day to day) and Mike Lowell (eligible to come off of the DL Thursday) do not play much of a role during this series. Alex Cora makes me ill. Defensively, he’s maybe slightly superior to Captain Intangibles, but that’s where the comparison ends. A couple of nights ago, the Red Sox were presented with a rare occasion where bunting was actually the right move, with Cora at the plate. Yet, Cora didn’t execute the bunt, because Cora cannot bunt. If a guy like Alex Cora can’t even bunt, what the hell is he doing in the major leagues?

Advantage: New York

Third Base
Jed Lowrie vs. Alex Rodriguez

Lowrie has been impressive in his short time up here, with 20 extra-base hits in only 178 plate appearances. Alas, he’s stacked up against quite possibly the greatest player of all time. With all of the personal bullshit, the Steinbrenner Family, and the circus surrounding the final campaign of the Toilet, A-Rod hasn’t missed a beat this season.

Strong Advantage: New York

Left Field
Jason Bay vs. Xavier Nady

In a matchup of trade deadline acquisitions, both teams are represented by guys who have been making their general managers look smart. Jason Bay is hitting .333/.385/.529 with the Red Sox, and The X-Man is raking to the tune of .320/.381/.612 in New York. The major difference between these two guys: one of them has done this before, and the other is having a year unlike any other on his resume.

Advantage: Boston

Center Field
Coco Crisp vs. Johnny Damon

Damon, once again playing center field in the wake of Melky Cabrera’s demotion, is covering 35% less range than he did when he last played CF for the Red Sox in 2005 (2.71 RF in 2005 vs 1.75 RF today). However, he’s hitting the ball again, and is currently at his career high in OPS+ (!) Crisp is vastly superior to Damon with the glove, and vice versa with the bat. I’ll wager that the offensive advantage trumps the defensive one.

Slight Advantage: New York

Right Field:
Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Bobby Abreu
Abreu is a butcher defensively, but he’ll get away with that while playing in the little league RF in The Bronx. He can still get on base better than most, and still cranks one on occasion. Ellsbury is probably banged up after a hard collision with the fence in Toronto, is still generally a work-in-progress, and is someone who’s talents aren’t best served playing RF in Yankee Stadium.

Advantage: New York

Bullpen:
Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Justin Masterson, Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez
Vs.
Mariano Rivera, Jose Veras, Damaso Marte, Edwar Ramirez, David Robertson

If you break the bullpen down into two pieces, 8th/9th innings and Early Relief, this becomes a bit more clear. Rivera is, well…Rivera. He’s still the best reliever in the game, a short notch ahead of where Papelbon is at this point. Jose Veras has been impressive as Fruitbat’s set up man, and this tandem gets the edge over the Boston combination of Papelbon and Okajima. The bottom half of the bullpen leans heavily in Boston’s favor, with Masterson, Lopez, and Delcarmen being much safer options than Marte, Ramirez, and Robertson.

My contention is this: more innings will be thrown by guys like Masterson and Ramirez (as opposed to Rivera and Papelbon), especially with guys like Sidney Ponson and Paul Byrd slated to start.

Slight Advantage: Boston

Designated Hitter
David Ortiz vs. Hideki Matsui

Advantage: Boston

Overall: People are going to hate me for this, but I honestly think this is a complete push. Maybe someone else can weigh in here, but I don’t really see a total advantage going one way or the other. If they Sox had either Lowell or Drew, the decision becomes easier, but with Crisp and Cora filling in, Boston’s lineup looks quite a bit different.

For the sake of making a prediction, I’ll go ahead and say New York takes two out of three.
It will be, once again, a fun series to watch.

BAWOOSH!

Comments (1)

By Jimmy,

We meet again, old friend.

I suppose there is the possibility that the Sox could visit Yankee Stadium one last time in the post season, but it isn’t likely to happen. Perhaps later I’ll wax poetic on the House That Ron Blomberg Built, but for now, let’s evaluate the matchup on the field in this series, one that is critical for both teams involved (one could argue that New York “must win” two out of three here).

Game 1 Starting Pitchers
Back from the DL is Tim Wakefield, a guy without whom the Red Sox would not be in playoff contention, and probably the second-best pitcher on the team in 2008. However, a couple of factors are working against him here. 1) He hasn’t pitched in a while, so we don’t really know what were getting, and 2) Wake has been brutalized by the Yankees recently, having a 9.12 ERA against the Bombers since 2007.

Andy Pettitte has has trouble with Boston, but not to the extent of Wakefield vs. New York. “Cecil Turtle” has a 5.20 ERA against Boston in the past two years. However, he is coming off of a strong start at Toronto where he was able to throw only 83 pitches (Girardi pulled him early in a blowout), so he will be well rested.

Advantage: New York

Game 2 Starting Pitchers
This one can be dubbed “The Scrapheap Battle Royal”. Both Paul Byrd and Sidney Ponson were picked up to help bolster the back-end of both team’s respective rotations. In Byrd’s last 7 starts, he has an ERA of 2.79, a span of success which some attribute to a change in mechanics. Ponson is a guy who is headed in a different direction, after lasting only 2 innings in his last start at the Rogers Centre. Since July, opponents are hitting .321/.386/.500 off of King Hippo.

Advantage: Boston

Game 3 Starting Pitchers
The final game promises the most interesting pitching matchup: Jon Lester against Mike Mussina. Clearly, this is a matchup of good versus evil. Everyone (and by “everyone” I mean 99% of the world’s population, Santa Claus, Jesus Christ, the jazz band from the Mos Eisley Cantina, David Hasselhoff, ect.) will be rooting for the Sox to win this one.

On the surface, the matchup seems incredibly close. Mussina has been on tear lately, but the Red Sox have had his number this season, hitting .333/.387/.544 off of him in 2008. Lester, on the other hand, has been amazing against the Yankees, with a 1.12 ERA in two starts, including a complete game shutout at Yankee Stadium earlier this season.

The home field advantage, Mussina’s recent success, and the “big game” factor make it a little closer than it should be.

Slight Advantage: Boston

Check back later this afternoon when I cover the rest of the teams.

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By Jimmy, 8/25/2008 8:55 am

As of August 24th, here are the updated postseason odds as calculated by two of the leading sources:

Coolstandings.com

Angels 99.9%
Rays 95.4%
Red Sox 75%
Twins 61.6%
White Sox 58.7%
Yankees 7.3%

Baseball Prospectus

Angels 99.9%
Rays 97.7%
Red Sox 86.0%
White Sox 70.4%
Twins 40.2%
Yankees 5.0%

As I described before, the difference in odds between the two sources is mostly due to Baseball Prospectus’ usage of PECOTA, their proprietary player evaluation system. Cool Standings only uses each team’s current Pythagorean record.

Not much has changed since the last time we looked at this. Most noticeably, the Oakland Athletics have fallen out of contention, not coincidentally after Billy Beane traded away two of his best pitchers. As a result, the Angels have locked up the AL West. Also, the Detroit Tigers have fallen out of contention in the Central (something most did not expect before this season began).

The Red Sox are just about in the same position they were in when we checked this over a month ago, though it might seem like they’ve faltered a bit since then.

COMING TOMORROW: A preview of the final Red Sox-Yankees series at the fabled “Toilet”, a.k.a. Yankee Stadium.  Stay tuned.

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By Jimmy, 8/22/2008 11:54 am

Mike Schmidt, the legendary Philadelphia Phillies third baseman, was in Pawtucket yesterday to throw out the first pitch at McCoy Stadium.  Like several other surviving Hall of Famers, the 58-year-old has some opinions to share about the modern day player, most of which would sound completely appropriate if followed by the phrase “dag nabbit”.

ProJo

According to Schmidt: Manny’s final days in a Red Sox uniform are “from a player’s standpoint, one of the worst things I’ve ever witnessed in the history of the game.”

Schmidt, born in 1949, has witnessed the following things:

• The Pete Rose scandal.  Schmidt was Rose’s teammate at one time.
• A work stoppage which cut the 1981 season in half, and another which caused the cancellation of the World Series in 1994.
• Rampant cocaine & speed abuse in the 1980’s.
• Rampant steroid abuse in the 1990’s.
• The rise and fall of artificial turf.
• The pinnacle of fan violence and drunkenness in the 1970’s, the most notable example being “Disco Demolition Night”.

Manny Ramirez is comparable to these?

Stick to selling soup, Mike.

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By Jimmy, 8/21/2008 10:20 pm

The shortstop’s injury has been aggravated, and he could be out for the season.

I wonder how it happened?

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By Jimmy,

Providence Journal Blog link

The Red Sox swap out a pitcher who has been surprisingly terrible with another who has been surprisingly effective.

Smith, a frequent rider of the “I-95 Express” between Boston and Pawtucket this season, has pitched well in a versatile role for the AAA Pawsox, where he has served as a starter, a long reliever, and (usually) a closer. Smith is known for his breaking stuff and changeup, and has baffled MLB hitters in a very small sample of appearances this season, most notably a 4-inning mop-up appearance back in June.

In that appearance, nearly half of his pitches were curveballs, and 2/3 of them were thrown for strikes. I have a feeling that he’ll be able to get by on a “deception factor” for a while, as he does have some nasty breaking stuff that a hitter might not expect from a 27-year-old rookie.

Were I running the team, he would be 5th on the bullpen depth chart (ahead of Mike Timlin and Manny Delcarmen), but I have a feeling he’ll be the last guy to get the call in a close game.

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By Jimmy,

It’s maddening as hell.

Watching Clay Buchholz these last few months has been like watching your 7-year-old son, the one with the IQ of 127 and an affinity for taking computers apart and putting them back together, get pulled out of the “normal kids” class for biting girls on their ankles and drawing pictures of dead bodies.

That is what we are seeing here. A child, one who is obviously gifted, struggling to adapt to his current environment.  So, the Red Sox treated him as such, sending him as far away from Boston as they could.

Clay Buchholz, 1 year removed from throwing a no-hitter, has been demoted to AA Portland after losing yet another game last night.

In 286 minor league innings before this season, Clay had issued 87 walks and 21 HRs in 286 innings of work.  This is an average of 2.74 walks and 0.66 HRs per game.  This season in Boston, his walk and HR rates have both nearly doubled, to 4.86 and 1.30 respectively.  Obviously, a young pitcher will naturally give up more walks and home runs against tougher hitting in the Major Leagues, but an increase this drastic is atypical.   Anyone who has watched him this season can tell you that his stuff is not an issue, but his location has been piss poor.

So, what on earth is wrong with him?

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By Jimmy, 8/18/2008 10:06 pm

The Boston Red Sox, recent victims of a merciless gang rape at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays, staggered into Baltimore’s “Fenway South” tonight to take on the Orioles, a team that has given them plenty of trouble this season.  As we watch the Sox attempt to dam the recent tsunami of suck, let’s do a little case study.

I performed a similar analysis last year with the Red Sox and the Sopranos, and after thinking about it quite a bit during tonight’s commute home from work, I think it can be done again.  Let’s compare the characters from the critically acclaimed hit series “The Wire” to the members of the Defending World Champion Boston Red Sox.

Sean Casey :: “Bubbles”
Probably the most well-liked character.  Usually can be seen in a jovial mood with a smile on his face, and never at a loss for words.  That being said, you don’t want to rely on him too heavily in a critical situation.

Terry Francona :: Lt. Cedric Daniels
The man knows his business.  His peers admire him, and his crew respects him.  He’s loyal to his guys, and if there’s ever a problem, he always handles it “in-house” rather than vetting it out in the newspapers.  He’s wary of the media, since there are some reporters out there who are known to stir the pot in an effort to sell papers.

Tim Wakefield :: Det. Lester Freamon
A grizzled veteran who has been underappreciated for years.  His approach is unique, and is much more about finesse than it is brute force.  When he’s out there doing his job, it’s like watching a master craftsman working on the most minute details on an intricate piece of artwork, whether that artwork is a fluttering knuckleball or a miniature antique hope chest.

Kevin Youkilis :: Marlo Stanfield
Kevin has grown from an inexperienced young pup into a stone cold killer…at the plate.  Almost in the blink of an eye, he has transformed into one of the most feared offensive players in the league.  He is claiming his spots on the league leaders lists as quickly as Marlo claimed his corners in West Baltimore.  However, he has a temper and can sometimes rub people the wrong way.

J.D. Drew :: Chris Partlow
Just as deadly at the plate as teammate Kevin Youkilis, but unlike Youkilis (or Marlo), this guy is known for his icy stoicism.  He sometimes is criticized for being heartless, but whenever he is called upon, he usually delivers.  He is unknown to the casual fans, despite being the best hitter on the squad.

Dustin Pedroia :: Det. Kima Griggs
Whether you are a female cop trying to make it in a male dominated organization, or if you’re a pygmy second baseman trying to become the most well-known MLB dwarf since Eddie Gaedel, it’s an uphill climb.  Don’t let anyone tell you that you can’t do it, and be sure to talk plenty of shit on your way to the top.

Julio Lugo :: Det. Ray Cole
Don’t get this one?  Let me explain: when I say “Ray Cole”, I am referring to his corpse.  Julio Lugo has been roughly as useful as Detective Ray Cole’s lifeless corpse.  Julio is on the DL, and Ray is on the pool table at Kavanaugh’s.  Both have made plenty of errors throughout the course of their work, but they can’t hurt us now.

Manny Ramirez :: Det. Roland “Prez” Pryzbylweski
These guys are socially inept and reliable for a moment of comic relief here and there, but when it comes to the minutia of the task at hand, they are savants.  They exceed so well in one area of the job, and tend to ignore the other aspects.  Alas, these guys have been violent against co-workers, and are no longer with the team.

Jason Bay :: Brother Mouzone
A mysterious newcomer who walks softly but carries a big stick.  His reputation from faraway lands precedes him, and he has taken the city by storm during his brief stint here.

Jonathan Papelbon :: Det. Jimmy McNulty
The cowboy of the squad.  One of the most valuable guys on the team, even though he is known to get himself in trouble when speaking his mind.  He tells it like it is, and if people don’t like it, tough shit!  He doesn’t have the booksmarts of some of the other guys, but when it comes to the job, there is no equal.

David Ortiz :: Det. Bunk Moreland
The resident “big teddy bear”, and one of the most reliable performers around.  Plays by the book, and delivers just as much productivity some other guys who tend to…bend the rules.

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By Jimmy, 8/14/2008 3:08 pm

You all know the story by now.  In a span of 5 months, Jon Lester has transformed from a shaky 5th starter on the brink of a demotion to a legitimate ace.  His walk rate and HR rates have plummeted, and as a result he has allowed 30% fewer runs than a year ago.  He’s already had 2 CG shutouts this season (including a no-hitter), and he had yet another strong performance last night.

So, what has changed?  Clearly he is allowing more contact this year, as his K rate has dropped from 7.1 to 6.1, but his ground ball rate has increased even more (a 40% increase in ground balls compared to a 15% decline in strikeouts).  How does his stuff differ this year from last?

Let’s take a look at a Lester start from the beginning of the season. 2008 began much like 2007 ended for Lester: painfully.  In his first 6 starts, Jon allowed 19 walks (compared to 16 Ks) and 5 home runs.   Since those 6 starts, Lester is clearly a different pitcher.  I’ll use his fourth start of the season for this analysis (assuming he was naturally rusty or fatigued from the Japan trip in his first few starts).

On 4/14/08, a day before my 30th birthday, Jon Lester pitched 4.1 forgettable innings, walking 5 and striking out 3.  Here’s the breakdown of his pitches, courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net (if this website were a woman, I would make sweet love to it for 36 hours straight):

Now, let’s have a look at his memorable start on 5/16/08 (the no-hitter):

And finally, Jon Lester’s 7.1 inning start last night, where he held a tough Texas Rangers lineup to three runs on 7 hits (i.e. a more realistic example of a typical Lester start):

The biggest difference (aside from the monumental fact that he is throwing his fastball and cut fastball for strikes more often) is in his breaking pitch.  It’s faster and tighter, almost as if it is a slurve (a cross between a fastball and a slider).  He’s certainly been locating it much better than before, when it was more of a traditional vertical breaking curveball.

As Lester’s approach continues to improve, the Red Sox should have an impressive 1-2-3 rotation down the stretch.  It’s a combination that would be ideal for a short playoff series.

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By Jimmy, 8/13/2008 5:48 pm

As we feared, Mike Lowell has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with an oblique strain.  Taking his place on the roster will be David Pauley, a pitcher who has had a relatively decent year in Pawtucket (3.32 ERA in 135.2 innings, 94/40 K/BB).  Pauley will serve as an insurance arm tonight after the 200 pitch circus last night at Fenway Park.  After tonight’s game, another move may follow, likely bringing up one of Jeff Bailey, Jonathan Van Every, or Chris Carter from Pawtucket.

We know what the loss of Mike Lowell means offensively.  Sean “The Mayor” Casey will be getting the majority of his at bats, with some also going to Alex Cora (shudder).  Casey can hit a little, albeit with terrible speed and little power.

However, this move will likely hurt the Red Sox more defensively than offensively.   When Kevin Youkilis slides over to the hot corner, his career RZR (Revised Zone Rating per The Hardball Times), weighted by innings played at 3B, hovers around .728.  Mike Lowell, in comparison, sports a 3-year weighted average RZR of .750.  Now, at first base, Gold Glover Youkilis has a weighted RZR of .804 for his career, while Sean Casey’s 3-year weighted RZR is .768.

Simply put, this 1B/3B tandem is going to make less plays, and Lowell’s absence will hurt the team on two fronts.

Note: I used 3-year RZRs for Casey and Lowell because they are in the proverbial “twilight of their careers” and thus more recent data would be relevant. 

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By Jimmy,

No, that 19-17 score is not from a women’s lacrosse game. After going up 10-0 in the first inning, the Red Sox gradually coughed up the lead, but eventually won it back on a Kevin Youkilis home run in the 8th inning. Here’s a quick recap of the highlights from the game:

• Charlie Zink, pitching on 3 days rest, was knocked around in his MLB debut. “Yeah, hi, Charlie? Yeah…I’m going to need you to go ahead and drive back to Pawtucket, m’kay? Yeah, we’ve been going through some reorganization and we’re getting some fresh blood to come in and…help us out a little, m’kay? Yeah…” Charlie’s demotion makes room for newly acquired Paul Byrd. If this is Zink’s final appearance of the season, he goes into the 2008 encyclopedia with a career ERA of 16.62.
• Mike Lowell is hurting, and he might be taking that 15-day vacation we were talking about earlier.
• David Ortiz had a monster game, with 2 HRs in the first inning. He reached base 5 times (10 total bases), scored 4 runs, and drove in 6.
• Dustin Pedroia had 5 hits. He is now 4th in the American League in batting average.
• J.D. Drew and Kevin Youkilis, after combining to go 4 for 9 with three walks, 5 runs scored, and 6 RBI, are now 3rd and 4th in the American League in OPS, respectively.

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By Jimmy, 8/12/2008 4:41 pm

The Red Sox have made yet another move, this time bolstering their pitching staff after Tim Wakefield’s recent injury.  Boston has acquired veteran starter Paul Byrd from the Cleveland Indians in a waiver wire deal for cash or a PTBNL.

The 37-year-old Byrd is essentially an average American League pitcher these days, with an ERA+ of 96 this season.  Byrd has a 1.80 ERA in his last 5 starts, and is coming off of a complete game victory against Toronto on August 9th.   Known for an unorthodox delivery and excellent control, Byrd has only walked 24 batters in 131 innings (a rate of 1.65 per 9 innings).  He features a 85 MPH fastball, a 78 MPH changeup with some outward screwball-esque movement, a curveball and a slider.

It’s a quality addition for Boston.  Someone who’s been around the block, doesn’t make too many mistakes, and can fill in as the 5th starter in the events that Wakefield can’t pitch or Buchholz continues to be disastrous.  He’s basically the polar opposite of Daisuke Matsuzaka: he gives up more base hits than most AL starters (a byproduct of being around the plate as often as he is), but the lack of walks mitigates the damage.

Make no mistake, Byrd is a guy who could use the help of some run support on most nights.  The team has averaged 5.7 runs per game since the acquisition of Jason Bay, so Byrd should at least prove to be a serviceable 5th/6th starter for the next two months.

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By Jimmy, 8/11/2008 5:38 pm

According to the ProJo’s Sean McAdam, the Red Sox have decided to give longtime minor leaguer Charlie Zink his first career big league start in lieu of the injured Tim Wakefield this Tuesday.

The big story here is not only the fact that Zink will be turning 29-year-old in a couple of weeks, but the fact that he is, like Wakefield, primarily a knuckleball pitcher. How does Charlie Zink compare to Wake?

There are three big differences:

1. Zink also features a fastball in the mid-80’s, whereas Wakefield’s “fastball” is about 10 MPH slower. Zink reportedly also has a cut fastball (though I can’t seem to find a scouting report which distinguishes his cutter from his usual fastball).
2. Zink does not throw his curveball as often as Wakefield does.
3. Zink’s knuckleball is “major league ready” but not quite as advanced as Wakefield’s.

In a nutshell, you will probably see Zink the fastball more often than Wakefield, and you will see him feature a knuckleball that does not have quite the same drop as Wakefield’s.

How will he fare against the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night? If his AAA performance is any indication, he should be able to survive. Zink has been one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues in 2008, boasting a 13-4 record with a 2.89 ERA in 152.1 innings. He is third in the International League in WHIP, ERA, tied for first in wins, and is leading the league in innings pitched.

However, the most amazing of Zink’s statistics is his 43 walks allowed. This translates to an impressive (and reassuring) 2.54 walks per 9 innings. For some perspective, Tim Wakefield’s career BB/9 is 3.47. If anything, this tells us that Zink can at least harness the mysterious and temperamental powers of the knuckleball. The true challenge, in this case, will be keeping the ball from flying out of the park against a lineup which is scoring a league best 5.61 runs per game.

At the very least, Zink’s call-up is a good story, something he will always look back on with a sense of pride. At best, we are seeing the debut of a guy who could be pitching in the major leagues for the next 10+ years.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy,

Well, it happened again. Clay Buchholz, the kid who began the season as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, suffered through another rough outing last night. Even before the game, Clay was already among the worst 5 starting pitchers in the American League as ranked by WPA (just above Luis Mendoza, Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez, and Miguel Batista), and with his latest effort his ERA jumps above the illustrious 6.00 plateau.

Now, you are going to hear most folks screaming for him to be demoted to Pawtucket, where he will of course learn how to “get his head on straight”, and “build up confidence”, and “stop wearing so many necklaces” and so on, and so forth. However, with Tim Wakefield hurt and top prospect Michael Bowden likely to take his place, the Red Sox would probably replace Buchholz with one of Devern Hansack and David Pauley from AAA (assuming Bartolo Colon, who pitched 3 innings last night, is not ready to return).

Clay would have 8 regular season starts remaining if he were to stay in the Major League rotation. Would Hansack or Pauley give the Red Sox a better chance to win those 8 games? Would Clay, still the most prized young pitcher in the organization, benefit more from facing AAA hitters in 5 starts or MLB hitters in 8 starts?

Last night was an excellent example of the type of luck Clay has been having of late: few bad decisions combined with bad luck. His stuff was just fine (check out the Pitch FX data from the terrific brooksbaseball.net website), but he allowed some Texas Leaguers at the wrong time, and a few home runs from three of the most prolific home run hitters in the league.

This guy’s performance is going to improve. Or, it should, if were are to put any stock into the law of averages. His K/9 would be third in the American League had he enough innings to qualify, and his xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.03 is better than Jon Lester’s. He’s simply a much better pitcher than his current ERA dictates.

Maybe he could be sent down once Bartolo Colon is ready to return to the rotation in a couple of weeks. Maybe he doesn’t make the postseason roster (God willing). The best move for the organization, at this point, is to leave him where he is.

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By Jimmy, 8/8/2008 1:19 pm

According to ESPN, Brian Giles has vetoed a potential deal sending him to Boston, choosing to remain with the last place San Diego Padres.

The Herald has the details, and clues us in on the primary reason:

The primary factor was family reasons, as Giles wants to remain close to his children, who live in San Diego.

OK, the thread title is tongue-in-cheek, because I really can’t fault a 37-year-old man who wants to play out the end of his baseball career near his family in a city he loves. I mean, we all go though the “Life sucks, I want to move to Southern California” phase in our lives, don’t we? I think I spent about 3 years in my mid-20’s telling people I wanted to live in San Diego.

So, as we say in Italian: Salute.

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By Jimmy,

The Red Sox claimed outfielder Brian Giles off of waivers from the San Diego Padres yesterday, and now have roughly 24 hours to work out a trade to acquire him.

Why would they do this? The main reason is the disappointing .319 OBP in 705 plate appearances from both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp combined, and the horrifying .314 OBP from all Red Sox lead off hitters this season. Brian Giles, on the other hand, has hit .315/.404/.447 away from the Petco Park pitchers’ haven, and would be an ideal hitter to use at the top of the order for the Red Sox.

He’d be strictly a 2+ month rental, a 37-year-old hired gun for the stretch run. Giles likes playing in San Diego, and would likely try to return there after his contract expires this season. Still, adding Giles to the Sox (who currently lead the AL in OBP with .355) would transform a decent offense into a great one for the final critical weeks of the season.

Some Obstacles:

• The no-trade clause. Giles has a clause in his contract which allows him to veto a trade to Boston (among a handful of other cities), which presumably the teams and Brian’s agent are working on at the moment. Some concessions will probably have to take place, such as the Red Sox promising not to pick up his team option for 2009.
• What do the Padres want in return? Talks have been relatively quiet, but I assume this is going to cost the Sox a prospect. Not a blue chipper (names like Anderson and Bowden are likely safe), but someone who would probably crack the middle or lower half of a Top 20 list. However, if Giles turns out to be a Type A free agent, the Sox would receive an extra draft pick, which would help to cancel out the loss of a prospect.
• What roster move to make? The smart money is on Ellsbury being sent to AAA Pawtucket. It won’t be very popular with his fans or his sponsors, but it certainly does appear that he could work on a few things at McCoy Stadium, plate discipline especially. He’d likely be recalled when the rosters expand from 25 to 40 on September 1st, and will serve in a similar capacity as his role in 2007.
• And the biggest issue here: how will this work defensively? Giles cannot play first base, which would keep him from taking Mike Lowell’s place in the lineup should the Silver Fox need a 15 day vacation. Both J.D. Drew and Giles have a little experience playing center field (mostly in their younger days), and I think you would see J.D. getting most of the time there.

Let’s face facts, an outfield of Bay-Drew-Giles has the potential to be brutal defensively, especially at Fenway Park. But, upgrading from a .300 OBP to a .400 OBP in the batting order would be more than worth the occasional blooper reel moment in the outfield.

Hopefully this deal gets done.

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By Jimmy, 8/7/2008 2:22 pm

Starting this Friday night, the Red Sox face their most challenging opponent since the tumultuous 7/31 trading deadline, as they march into Chicago’s South Side to take on Crazy Ozzie Guillen’s Pale Hose in a 4 game series.

This is the first time these teams have faced off in 2008, and the most meaningful series they’ve had in quite a while. How do these two squads match up? Let’s break it down position-by-position.

Starter, Game 1
BOS: Jon Lester
CHI: Mark Buehrle

Buehrle (a.k.a. Supreme Eater of Innings) is coming off of rough start against Kansas City. His fastball is hovering around the 84-88 MPH range right now, and he may be finally showing signs of fatigue from throwing nearly 1,800 innings before his 30th birthday. Lester has been rolling since late April, and looks to continue his outstanding season powered by his improvement in command and a revamped cut fastball.

Advantage: Boston

Starter, Game 2
BOS: Daisuke Matsuzaka
CHI: Jose Contreras

In Dice-K’s last start against Oakland, he went back to basics. We’ve all hears about his legendary pitch arsenal, and how Jason Varitek quipped that he needed all 10 fingers to call Matsuzaka. Well, 88% of his 103 pitches against the A’s were either fastballs or sliders. And it worked out wonderfully, leading to 8 strikeouts and only 2 walks. Admittedly, he might have to change his approach against the much tougher Chicago lineup.

Advantage: Boston

Starter, Game 3
BOS: Clay Buchholz
CHI: Gavin Floyd

A few days ago, I mentioned that Clay Buchholz was suffering from both bad luck and command issues. One of these can be expected to reverse over time. The other? Who knows. What I can tell you is that Gavin Floyd is not quite as good as his 2008 numbers might have you think, as the difference between his FIP and ERA is a staggering 1.32, and he has allowed 69 baserunners in his last 45 innings pitched.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

Starter, Game 4
BOS: Josh Beckett
CHI: John Danks

Danks is having a breakthrough season and is coming off of a nice start against the Tigers. Beckett is also on the wake of a decent start, and despite all of the talk-radio hand wringing he is carrying a FIP of 3.38. In his last start, 1/3 of his pitches were curveballs. If both of these guys are on, this will be an interesting matchup.

Slight Advantage: Boston

Infield
BOS: Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie
CHI: Paul Konerko, Alexei Ramirez, Juan Uribe, Orlando Cabrera

It’s tough to properly gauge this matchup without knowing Youkilis’ status after injuring his hand last night. The official word is “day-to-day”, and Sean Casey would play if Kevin can’t. Either way, Boston has the advantage at 1B over the lifeless Konerko. It’s just a question of how wide the gap is. We’ll take the team’s explanation at face value and assume Youkilis plays.

Ramirez is the Rookie of the Year candidate you haven’t heard about. He’s old for a rookie, but the alleged 26-year-old is hitting .311/.330./478 while playing solid defense at second base. Pedroia continues to be one of the best players in baseball since mid-June, hitting .399/.439/.568 in his last 199 plate appearances. Juan Uribe is filling in for Joe Crede, who is at least a week from returning to the lineup. Mike Lowell looks like he should be sitting right now, as he is visibly hobbled and has hit .171/.222/.211 in his last 81 PAs.

In the event that Lowell can’t play, you’d see Jed Lowrie move over and Alex Cora playing SS. Jed Lowrie vs Orlando Cabrera is a very interesting comparison, as it pits offense against defense. Lowrie’s gap power has New Englanders hoping they never have to see Julio Lugo start another game in Red Sox uniform, while at the same time bemoaning Theo Epstein for not resigning the slick-fielding Cabrera after 2004.

Advantage: Boston

Outfield
BOS: Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury, J.D. Drew, Coco Crisp, Brian Giles?
CHI: Carlos Quentin, Nick Swisher, Jermaine Dye, Ken Griffey Jr.
Jason Bay’s praises have been sung by many a minstrel, but Carlos Quentin is having just a phenomenal year in the American League, helping to dispel the notion that every National League player will automatically struggle after changing leagues. Both center fielders have been somewhat disappointing offensively this season. Ellsbury at least will cover a large amount of real estate in CF, but Swisher is clearly the more productive hitter (even when both players are playing to their potential). Jermaine Dye is a guy who has amazed me over the past few years. His shin bones are as frail as those from Barbaro’s rotting corpse, and yet the guy crushes the ball season after season. Despite the Red Sox outfield actually earning 1 more Win Share in total (46 vs 45), the run scoring potential of the White Sox outfield cannot be denied here.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

Catcher
BOS: Jason Varitek
CHI: A.J. Pierzynski

I’ll factor out pitch-calling abilities here, since those skills manifest themselves in the performance of the pitchers. Jason has shown a little more offensive prowess lately, hitting .262/.380/.405 in his last 50 plate appearances. Still he’s one of the last guys you’d want to see at the plate in a critical situation, whereas A.J. can handle the stick just fine.

Advantage: Chicago

Designated Hitter
BOS: David Ortiz
CHI: Jim Thome

Jim Thome at 37 years young is sporting a nifty slugging percentage of .517, which is actually his lowest in a full season in the past 15 years. Thome being on the decline is obvious and expected…but let’s now acknowledge the elephant in the corner. David Ortiz, who has the classic frame of the fearsome but short-lived extra large power hitter, is hitting .250/.327/.354 since returning from injury. His wrist issues are still affecting his swing, and he has seen his power numbers fall off the table in 2008. In their current states, Thome is the more productive hitter.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

Bullpen
BOS: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Justin Masterson, David Aardsma, Javier Lopez, Mike Timlin
CHI: Bobby Jenks, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Boone Logan, Scott Linebrink

While Boston has a palpable advantage at the closer slot with Papelbon, Chicago’s set-up tandem of Dotel and Thornton is among the best in the game. Overall, the Red Sox bullpen has been relatively decent, with a 3.64 ERA and 7.73 K/9, but Chicago has the advantage with a 3.45 bullpen ERA and 8.3 K/9. To further the point, much of Boston’s bullpen value is tied up in Papelbon, whereas Chicago’s late-inning excellence is more evenly distributed between a group of four pitchers.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

OVERALL: A slight advantage goes to Boston, thanks mostly to a favorable matchup of starting pitchers and a clear advantage in the infield positions. A Chicago home-field advantage tilts the matchup to more even ground.

This should be a fun series, and it’s one that currently deserves more national press than a Red Sox / Yankees series would get right now.

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By Jimmy,

The new-look Red Sox have had their way with Oakland and Kansas City, and everything appears to be on the up-and-up, both in the clubhouse and on the field.   Kevin Youkilis had a scare last night, but he should be OK after enjoying the off day.  Jacoby Ellsbury is beginning to heat up a bit, going 6 for his last 11.  And, of course, prized acquisition Jason “He Plays The Game The Way It Is Meant To Be Played” Bay is currently enjoying Christ-like status, and rightfully so, as he has been an offensive machine during his first 6 games in a Red Sox uniform (.423/.500/.692).

However, let’s face it: Oakland and Kansas City aren’t exactly American League powerhouses at this point.  As impressive as the Red Sox have been, the true test will come this weekend, when they take on the AL Central leading Chicago White Sox on their turf.

I’ll be posting a series preview later on today.