If you had predicted at the beginning of the year that Jon Lester would be enjoying a far-and-away better 2008 season than Clay Buchholz, you probably could have won a few bets.  Yet, this is where we currently stand:

Buchholz: 63.2 IP, 63/32 K/BB, 75 ERA+
Lester: 146.1 IP, 101,46 K/BB, 141 ERA+

According to some more advanced statistical evidence, a difference in luck has been a factor for these two pitchers.  Their line drive rates are very similar (Buchholz with 22.5% and Lester with 20.5%), and their FIP is also similar (Buchholz with 4.21, Lester with 3.65).  Clay actually boasts a better xFIP than Jon Lester, which seems inconceivable at this point (3.91 versus 4.06).

By the way, FIP an xFIP are Fielding-Independent Pitching and Expected Fielding-Independant Pitching, both courtesy of The Hardball Times.

With patience, Clay should eventually shape up into a decent MLB starter, as indicated by the high strikeout rates and low FIP.  He certainly lack poise right now, and allows far too many errors to occur via untimely walks, HBPs, wild pitches, and hanging fastballs.

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