AL Postseason Odds Revisited
As of August 24th, here are the updated postseason odds as calculated by two of the leading sources:
Angels 99.9%
Rays 95.4%
Red Sox 75%
Twins 61.6%
White Sox 58.7%
Yankees 7.3%
Angels 99.9%
Rays 97.7%
Red Sox 86.0%
White Sox 70.4%
Twins 40.2%
Yankees 5.0%
As I described before, the difference in odds between the two sources is mostly due to Baseball Prospectus’ usage of PECOTA, their proprietary player evaluation system. Cool Standings only uses each team’s current Pythagorean record.
Not much has changed since the last time we looked at this. Most noticeably, the Oakland Athletics have fallen out of contention, not coincidentally after Billy Beane traded away two of his best pitchers. As a result, the Angels have locked up the AL West. Also, the Detroit Tigers have fallen out of contention in the Central (something most did not expect before this season began).
The Red Sox are just about in the same position they were in when we checked this over a month ago, though it might seem like they’ve faltered a bit since then.
COMING TOMORROW: A preview of the final Red Sox-Yankees series at the fabled “Toilet”, a.k.a. Yankee Stadium. Stay tuned.