It’s a surprisingly unique manifestation of September pennant race baseball.  The Tampa Bay Rays, formerly known as the Devil Rays, Devil Dogs, Devil RAAAys, among other unflattering monikers, have finally seen their years of high draft picks come to fruition on the major league team.  Unbelievably, they are now the team to beat in the AL East.

The next three games will be the most important of the Red Sox season to date.  However, they will be the most important to date in Tampa Bay’s entire franchise history.  They have been losing games and losing ground to Boston at a frantic pace, and will be backed into a corner while visiting a hostile Fenway Park this week.  How will Joe Maddon’s kids react to this new territory?

Let’s break it down, position by position.

Game 1 Starters
Edwin Jackson vs. Jon Lester
Edwin was cuffed around in his last start against the floundering Yankees, and he is two innings shy of his career high of 161.  The hard-throwing youngster, who has had injury issues in the past, could be experiencing some fatigue.  According to Pitch FX, his maximum fastball speed against the Yankees was 95.6, compared to 97.4 in his best start against the Red Sox in April.  Jon Lester has been terrific against Tampa Bay this season, with a 1.46 ERA in 2 starts.

Advantage: Boston

Game 2 Starters
Scott Kazmir vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka
You all know the story with Kazmir.  110 career innings against Boston.  A 3.02 ERA, and 126 Ks.  Surprisingly, Boston has handled him just fine this year (albeit in only 2 starts).  His Achilles’ Heel has been an occasional lack of control, and the Red Sox are a team who will exploit that.  Still, he is in the midst of another terrific season, he has not been scored upon in his last 2 starts, and he gets the benefit of the doubt here.  Especially considering how lost Matsuzaka appeared in his last “quality start”.

Advantage: Tampa Bay

Game 3 Starters
Andy Sonnanstine vs. Josh Beckett
Red Sox fans across the country watched Beckett with their fingers crossed last week, and a collective sigh of relief was heard when he left the game after 5 shutout innings in the driving range known as Ameriquest Field.  His velocity was down quite a bit (average fastball speed was 92.45) but his command was impeccable and he managed to snap off 16 curveballs.  If he is close to the same pitcher we saw in Texas, the Rays will have their work cut out for them.  Sonnanstine has a 5.31 ERA in his last 10 starts.

Advantage: Boston

Catcher
Dioner Navarro vs. Jason Varitek
One could argue that Dioner’s emergence has been the biggest reason for the Rays’ success in 2008.  Offensively and defensively, he’s been among the top handful of catchers in the American League.  Varitek has been playing just fine of late, and on Friday, he actually had his batting average at .230 for the first time since late June.  Tampa Bay leads the league with 132 stolen bases, and will be testing Varitek’s arm this week.  It could get ugly, as he has only thrown out 23% of potential larcenists.

Advantage: Tampa Bay

First Base
Carlos Pena vs. Kevin Youkilis
Pena, the Northeastern Alum, has a 1.027 OPS since the trading deadline, and is having an Adam Dunn-esque “Three True Outcomes” type of season.  (The three true outcomes refer to a K, a BB, and a HR.  Pena has accumulated a shitload of all three this year).  As scary as Pena is at the plate these days, Youkilis continues to trudge forward in what is a breakout season for him, and has made the loss of Manny Ramirez somwhat palatable.

Advantage: Red Sox

Second Base
Akinori Iwamura vs. Dustin Pedroia
Dustin who?  He struggled a bit in the Texas series (2 for 11 with 3 walks and zero strikeouts), but he’s probably the favorite to win the American League MVP Award as of this afternoon.

Strong Advantage: Boston

Third Base
Willy Aybar (Evan Longoria?) vs. Mike Lowell
If Evan Longoria had not suffered an injury August, the Rays would have likely wrapped up the division title by now.  Most of Longoria’s playing time has gone to Willy Aybar, who hasn’t produced nearly as much as the highly-touted rookie.  There is a slim chance Longoria could return this week, but it’s doubtful.  Lowell has been on a tear since retuning from injury last week, and should be well rested after getting a day off yesterday.

Advantage: Boston

Shortstop
Jason Bartlett vs. Jed Lowrie
The traditional knock on Lowrie from those familiar with him in the minor leagues was that his SS defense was suspect.  But, in his limited time starting at SS for Boston, his Revised Zone Rating and the rate at which he makes Out of Zone Plays are both higher than those of Jason Bartlett, a guy who has been lauded for his defensive prowess.  I’m not saying that Lowrie is actually the better fielder, but I’ll contend that he’s probably a little better than we expected.  His offense gives him the advantage in this matchup.

Slight Advantage: Boston

Outfield
Hinske/Upton/Gross/Perez vs. Bay/Crisp/Ellsbury/Kotsay
The Rays’ outfield looks much different without the electric Carl Crawford, who is out until the final week of the regular season.  Eric Hisnke, after jumping to a rabbit pace earlier this season and making Red SOx fans pull their hair out in angst, has regressed predictably.  Upton, the best of the bunch, is having a relatively down year, and Gross & Perez are pretty average.  As weak as the S0x outfield might be without J.D. Drew, they have an advantage over Tampa Bay both in the field and at the plate.

Designated Hitter
Floyd/Baldelli vs. David Ortiz
Look, I’m the biggest Rocco Baldelli fan you’ll find outside of Central Florida, and I’m pulling for him.  But, the combo of Rocco and Cliff Floyd (who I believe is technically some sort of plant-eating dinosaur) doesn’t match up to His Papiness.  Even with his wrist “clicking”.

Advantage: Red Sox

Bullpen
Troy Percival?  Hey Tampa: The 2002 version of Jimmy called, he wants his fantasy closer back.

Advantage: Red Sox

Overall
The Rays are simply not the same team without Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria, and will be in serious trouble this post-season if both of these guys are not back in their usual form.  Expect this team to back into the playoffs.

Prediction: Red Sox will sweep.

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