A+ for Jon Lester, C- for Terry Francona
The 2008 chapter of Jon Lester’s pitching career might as well be entitled “Proving Everyone Wrong”. Well, maybe everyone except for one guy. Shameless plugs notwithstanding, even my lofty prediction of a 4.27 ERA over 179 innings has been eclipsed in grand fashion.
You’ve likely grown tired of my constant bleating about improved control being the key to Lester’s success this year. However, another factor to consider: not where Lester is throwing, but what Lester is throwing. You see this photo to the left here? This is a masterpiece (courtesy of Brooks Baseball, MPH is the X-axis, break in inches is the Y-axis) worthy of the Guggenheim. A luscious cornucopia of blistering fastballs touching 97 MPH, bat-splintering two-seamers, mystifying changeups, and neck-twisting curveballs. As long as Lester can accruately command this vast arsenal, a batter can never “cheat” (so to speak).
For instance, look at Jonathan Papelbon, a guy who yielded two earned runs in the 9th inning. Hitters will always cheat when facing Papelbon, because 1) 90% of his pitches are fastballs in the 95-98 MPH range, and 2) he has yet to figure out the split-fingered fastball. Now, Papebon’s heater is among the toughest pitches in baseball, and he will survive on most nights, even while knowing that hitters are using the timing factor to their advantage.
With Lester, the opposing batters do not have the stop-watch available in their tool kit. A myriad of pitches could await them, and the guessing-game isn’t smart money at 1/4 odds.
Now, on to another subject, one I’m sure I bitch about fairly often, and will continue to bemoan as long as the practice is continued. Bringing the team’s best reliever into the 9th inning with a 3-run lead is one of the primary examples of existing baseball groupthink. As a general rule, if there is a pitcher in whom you have less than 95% confidence that they can throw 1 inning without giving up 3 runs, they should not be on your team. It really is that simple. In that situation, Terry Francona should be able to call upon the stuffed boar head on the living room wall of Mike Timlin’s house.
Instead, we head to Tampa Bay with our best relief pitcher most likely inactive for game 1. Hopefully, he won’t even be needed, but it’s not an ideal spot for the Red Sox.
