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By Jimmy, 11/21/2008 12:26 pm

***  I’ve been hinting at my feelings on this topic in recent posts, but I’ll directly sum up my opinion now: priority #1 for GM Theo Epstein should be the pursuit of free agent Mark Teixeira.  I think we’ve been spoiled in the past 5 years by the combination of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, a duo which ranks among the best 3-4 tandems in baseball history.  Manny, of course, is gone.  As for Ortiz, I think we need to come to terms with the grim possibility that his 2003-2006 production is not going to repeat itself.  A lack of offense is what ultimately ended the 2008 season, and Teixeira provides an immediate boost in that department.  Will this be an expensive move?  As the governor of Alaska would say: “You betcha!”.  However, the Red Sox have the financial strength to pull it off.

***  Given the above proposition, you might ask yourself “Whither Mike Lowell?”.  1) He’s a huge question mark after having hip surgery, so his 2009 production should not be counted on as a guarantee. 2) His contract can be eaten with a side of onion rings for all I care.  When the deal was inked last year, we knew there would be a possibility that this would have to happen.  If healthy, he can be a right-handed counterpart to our DH who will likely need more time off as he ages.

***  I’m hoping the Sox do not have any serious interest in Derek Lowe or A.J. Burnett, two overpriced gambles.  Make a few ceremonious offers to drive up the price for teams like the Yankees and Angels, but then walk away.  If they are going to spend big…well, I’m starting to repeat myself here.

***  Speaking of pitchers, instead of targeting guys who are old and/or injury-prone, why not make a run at Junichi Tazawa instead?  Word on the street is that the Sox do indeed have some interest in the 22-year-old, and he could prove to be cheaper and more effective than either Lowe or Burnett.

***  While I’m on the subject of pitchers from The Land of Weird Cartoons, here’s some bad news for Red Sox fans: Daisuke Matsuzaka is planning on pitching in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.  Given his track record of usage in Japanese baseball, I’m guessing that his innings total this winter will be enough to make Iron Joe McGinnity wince.  While I love the WBC in theory,  I’m not a fan of accelerating the depreciation rate on one of our most valuable pitchers.

***  Congrats to Dustin Pedroia, a reasonable choice for MVP.  There was a handful of four players who could have justifiably won the award, and a Gold Glove/Silver Slugger combo at second base is certainly worthy enough.  I just think Kevin Youkilis should have received a bit more love from the press on this one.  His versatility and offensive consistency kept the team afloat during the some critical times.  He’s simply not as marketable as Pedroia, and the fan/media coverage and voting reflected that.

***  The trading of Coco Crisp creates an even greater for someone like Rocco Baldelli.  And by “someone like Rocco Baldelli”, I mean an experienced outfielder who can hit, is preferably right-handed, and wouldn’t mind not starting every game.  In other words, Rocco Baldelli.

***  I’m late to the party on this one, but if you haven’t seen the AMC series Mad Men, you are missing the best show on television.  If you need a reason, here’s two.  The storyline and the characters?  Oh yeah, they’re decent too.

***  Dusty Brown Update: he’s hitting .247/.381/.318 in the Dominican Winter League.  Great eye, but the lack of power is alarming (only 4 extra-base hits).  I still think he should get a chance to win the 2009 catching job assuming no trades are made to acquire catchers, and I have no delusions as to how he’ll hit at the MLB level.  If he gets on base and plays defense as advertised, I’m fine with a guy who slugs around .400.

***  F&@* the cold weather.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 11/20/2008 10:54 am

In an effort to save time (and because the crop is extremely top-heavy at both positions), I’m combining the Red Sox prospect ranking of first basemen and third baseman.  In case you missed them, check out the rankings of outfield prospects and catching prospects in the Boston minor league system.

Let’s get down to business:

1) Lars Anderson (1B)
Age: 21
2008 Level: AA

No surprises here.  Lars in generally considered the top prospect in the entire minor league system, and one of the top offensive prospects in all of baseball.  Last season, the big question was whether he hit after being promoted from the launching pad environment in Lancaster to the unforgiving tundra that is Portland, and he responded by dominating the Eastern League (.316/.436/.526) at the age of 20.

He still needs to develop some power to go along with his massive frame, and he still has trouble making contact, but these issues tend to fix themselves as hitters mature.  As with any prospect, Anderson should not be considered a sure thing (i.e., the team should not be basing their current free-agent decisions on what Anderson might become). That being said, the ceiling for Lars is superstardom, and he could arrive as early as 2010.  Hell, Boston already has a park named after him.

2) Michael Almanzar (3B)
Age: 17
2008 Level: Low A

The kid who received the highest bonus for an international free agent in the history of the Boston Red Sox ($1.5 million) wasted no time impressing scouts by hitting .348/.414./472 in the Gulf Coast League debut last season.  He was then promoted to Low-A Greenville, where he appeared to be overmatched by the much-older competition.  He’s a raw pedrigree, and needs to develop both physically and on the field, but he’s another guy who has the frame and the swing to become an elite offensive player.  He’ll repeat Low-A, and his performance bears watching.

3) Will Middlebrooks (3B)
Age: 20
2008 Level: SS-A

A much more polished and well-rounded player than Almanzar, but his ceiling is lower and he’s three years older.  Middlebrooks is a tremendously versatile athlete who can run, throw, and hit.  He initially struggled in his professional debut at Lowell, but seemed to come into his own after the All-Star Break, hitting .298/.353/.468.  It will be interesting to see how the Greenville Drive roster is constructed, as both Middlebrooks and Almanzar appear to be groomed for third base.  I suppose you could take a chance and try Middlebrooks in High-A Salem, but he’s raw for the Carolina League and might be overmatched.  We’ll see how the Sox play it.

4) Anthony Rizzo (1B)
Age: 19
2008 Level: Low-A

The 6th round draft pick from 2007 got everyone’s attention by busting out of the gate in 2008, hitting .373/.402/.446 before being diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in May.  The belief was that Rizzo would make a full recovery after 6-8 months of treatment. Since he’s been out of the public eye during his recovery, little is known regarding his progress.  We’re working under the assumption that the early prognosis was accurate, and Rizzo will be able to take the field in the spring of 2009.  Rizzo projects to be a decent all-around first baseman, handy with the glove and the bat.

5) Aaron Bates (1B)
Age: 24
2008 Level: AA

A few paragraphs above, I mentioned that this crop of prospects is extremely top-heavy.  Here’s a perfect example, as the difference in value and talent drops precipitously from #3 to #5.  There was a time when Bates was considered a solid first base prospect, but now it appears that his monster offensive season in 2007 might have been smoke-and-mirrors, a function of the hitter-friendly park and Bates’ advanced age.  His one area of strength is plate discipline, and he still has some power potential, but Bates is well below guys like Chris Carter and Jeff Bailey on the 1B organizational depth chart.  His ceiling is that of an “AAAA” auxiliary bat, and he still has some work to do to get there.

Next up, we’ll tackle middle infielders, before ending the prospect rankings with the pitchers.

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By Jimmy, 11/19/2008 5:40 pm

The trade of CF Coco Crisp for Royals reliever Ramon S. Ramirez has been confirmed.  What do we make of it?

Personally, my feelings on the deal are mixed, but slightly leaning towards a thumbs-up.  One one hand, the Red Sox are giving away more than they are getting in terms of pure value.  Coco Crisp might be the best defensive center fielder I’ve seen in a Red Sox uniform.  Although Coco is about average offensively, his skill set is such that he could probably be the starting CF for 12-15 MLB teams.  Not to mention, he’s relatively cheap.  Surely he has more value than a 70 inning reliever.

On the other hand, they are dealing a superfluous commodity for someone who will hopefully be a key bullpen piece in 2008.  Coco was expendable, and other teams knew they had the upper hand in any trade talks.  His value was discounted accordingly.  While I would have preferred Crisp to have been used in a package with prospects to acquire a young catcher, the grim reality is that teams are not willing to easily part with those guys.  In the end, the Red Sox should be happy with what they are getting, a strikeout pitcher who can face both left-handers and right-handers.  A guy who slightly resembles “Bodie” from The Wire.

Here’s Theo’s take on the new acquisition:

In Ramirez, we believe we’ve acquired a young, controllable reliever that can really help our bullpen. He has a plus fastball, 92-95 mph, and an outstanding power changeup. A lot of people think it’s a split, [but] it’s actually a changeup, 87-88 [mph], that’s a swing-and-a-miss pitch for him against left-handed and right-handed hitters. And [he has] a pretty good slider to go with it.

All PR aside, the 26-year-old’s numbers speak for themselves:  8.4 strikeouts per 9 innings over his career, a 2.3 K/BB ratio, and a 127 ERA+.

This deal answers the question of who would be the Boston center fielder next season (and we all had a feeling this would be the case).  Is Ellsbury overrated by most Red Sox fans?  Probably – but his most glaring weakness (plate discipline) is one that can be improved upon with the increased playing time he will now surely receive.  He has the potential to be a fine long-term answer in the outfield at Fenway.  While Jacoby Ellsbury was inconsistent at times in 2008, his raw talent and his high ceiling was evident for all to see.  In an “off-year”, the outfielder hit a pedestrian .280/.336/.394, but excelled in other areas (50/61 SB attempts, good CF defense, 72 Runs Created per the Hardball Times), and finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year ballot.  If he learns how to protect the strike zone a bit more, we could have one of the better lead-off hitters in the American League here.

Aside from handing the CF keys to Ellsbury, this deal also raises an interesting question regarding the pitching staff.  The Sox can go in two directions here:

1. They can keep the bullpen as-is, a group which might be one of the best in the league. Okajima, Delcarmen, Masterson, Papelbon, and now Ramirez would be a difficult crew to face in the late innings.  Last season, these guys posted ERA+ numbers of 177, 141, 146, 198, and 162 respectively.
2. They could convert Justin Masterson back into a starting pitcher, thus getting more innings out of one of the best young pitchers in the system, and saving a lot of money in the free agent market (no A.J. Burnett, ect).  The team could then spend money on something else.

Option 2 is what I’m hoping for.  It is less likely, simply because converting a reliever to a starter in one winter isn’t as easy as it seems on paper.  The team would likely need someone to fill in as a 5th starter in the beginning of the year while Masterson is slowly integrated into the rotation (a Michael Bowden type).  I say it’s worth a shot.  Why not utilize the young pitching staff that’s been built up over the past 5 years, and spend the big bucks on what the team really needs and does not have in the minors: a big bat.

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By Jimmy,

According to a sports radio station in Kansas City (relayed to yours truly via Rotoworld), the Red Sox have shipped Coco Crisp to the Royals for reliever Ramon Ramirez.  I’m hoping the report is accurate at this point, because I just sponsored his Baseball Reference page for the bargain basement price of $10, and it would be quite embarrasing if my sawbuck were wasted on a false rumor.

My thoughts on the deal later.

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By Jimmy, 11/17/2008 11:13 am

The item currently on the front burner of the 2009 Hot Stove Season is a potential Red Sox-Tigers trade.  The deal would send one of Dontrelle Willis or Nate Robertson (both starting pitchers) to the Sox for SS Julio Lugo.

While many Red Sox fans might relish the idea of shipping the much-maligned Lugo out of town, it is my belief that GM Theo Epstein should run away from this deal as fast as his pasty white legs can take him.  Maybe even spit in the face of Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski beforehand, for posterity.

The two pitchers on the table, Robertson and Willis, have one thing in common.  They’ve both performed gradually worse over the past 3 years, culminating in horrible 2008 campaigns.  Dontrelle suffered an extreme case of the yips, walking 35 hitters in 24 innings in between a couple of merciful minor league “rehab” stints, and Robertson spent his summer pitching 168 innings of batting practice to eager American League hitters, posting a 7.95 ERA on the road.

You say you hate Julio Lugo?  Let me explain something to you: until you watch either of these two men pitch in a Red Sox uniform – you don’t know what hatred is.  There many reasons not to do this deal, the biggest of which is the fact that there are more attractive 5th starter options out there, some of which are already in-house (Buchholz, Bowden, maybe even Masterson).

I’m lobbying for Julio Lugo to return to the Red Sox next season.  Here’s why:

1. His trade value is at an all-time low, and the team would be forced to accept expensive garbage in return (see above).
2. He can be used in a utility infielder role, replacing Alex Cora’s embalmed cadaver on the roster as the backup SS, 2B, and occasional 3B.  Lugo is a better player than Cora in most measurable areas.

Yes, this deal would help Detroit, but it makes zero sense for the Red Sox.  Let’s not do them any favors.

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By Jimmy, 11/13/2008 10:52 am

In case you missed it, check out my ranking of Boston’s top 5 catching prospects here.

In my next installment, we’ll cover outfielders, an area where the Sox have a bit more minor league depth.  Most of the guys on the list are raw talents at this point.  They have high ceilings, but quite a ways to go before they are ready to ply their trade in front of the green walls at 4 Yawkey Way.

1) Josh Reddick
Age: 21
2008 Level: AA

The 21-year-old could be one of the steals of the 2006 draft after the Red Sox selected him in the 17th round.  The corner outfielder was one of the best players in the Sally League in 2007, and was mashing in the California League last season before being promoted to Double-A Portland.  Reddick then struggled to hit in the pitching-rich Eastern League, but considering his age and his criminally low BABIP (.218 by my calculations), we’ll give him a mulligan and watch him closely in 2009.

He’s one of the few long ball threats within Boston’s minor league organization, and his K-rate has been excellent for a power hitter (only 133 strikeouts in 912 career plate appearances).  Reddick’s talent also translates to the field, where he’s drawn rave reviews for his instincts and throwing arm.  The one hole in his game is his tendency to swing at everything, but with his low K rate it’s not a monumental concern.  The best outfield prospect in the system.

2) Che-Hsuan Lin
Age: 20
2008 Level: Low-A

The toolsy Lin made headlines in the Bronx this summer by winning the Futures Game MVP at Yankee Stadium and evoking boos from the citizens of Back Hair Nation.  The 20-year-old might have the highest ceiling of any outfielder in the system, but he is still very raw (he has trouble hitting off-speed pitches, for example).  Lin’s athleticism gives us plenty to be excited about, and he should be patrolling CF next year for the new High-A affiliate in Salem, Virginia.

3) Ryan Kalish
Age: 20
2008 Level: High-A

Ryan was a rising star within the organization in 2007, hitting .368/.471/.540 at Lowell before breaking his hamate bone (wrist).  He came back in 2008 to produce decent numbers in Greenville, and struggled once promoted to High-A Lancaster.  Kalish is similar to Lin; great tools, modest power potential, still 3 or 4 years from the majors.  He’ll likely be playing alongside Lin at Salem in what should be a very exciting team to watch.

4) Ryan Westmoreland
Age: 18
2008 Level: N/A

My ranking of the Ocean State native might be a tad low, as I tend to discount players who have yet to appear in a professional game.  The folks at Baseball America, who admittedly are more familiar with Ryan than I am, call him the best athlete in the entire system, and the #7 Boston prospect overall.  Ryan is yet another high-ceiling player who has impressive tools but still a long way to go in the system (are you sensing a trend here?).  The Sox pried him away from Vanderbilt University with a $2,000,000 bonus, and hope to see their investment yield some impressive results in Greenville next season.

5) Zack Daeges
Age: 24
2008 Level: AA

We’re bucking the trend a bit here, as Daeges is quite a bit different than the kids listed above him.  He’s a polished hitter with good plate discipline, but not much in the way of tools or athleticism.  He’s not young, and thus his ceiling is lower and more visible than the likes of Lin, Kalish, and Westmoreland.  While Daeges is a man without a true position, his offensive prowess cannot be denied.  His career professional line is .314/.415/.504.  Look for him in Pawtucket next season, in what will be one of the best offensive teams in minor league baseball.

Next up: Corner Infielders

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By Jimmy, 11/12/2008 5:02 pm

As you wait for that severance paycheck to get deposited into your overdrawn bank account, here’s some good news.  Sensing that the typical baseball fan will be less solvent this year than in years past, the Boston Red Sox have elected to not raise ticket prices in 2009, the first price freeze in 14 years.  If you needed an indicator to tell you that this country is in a full blown recession, there you have it.  The Red Sox have a strict policy where they only freeze prices in the following scenarios:

1. A nuclear conflict of some sort, resulting in a “Mad Max” like scenario where New England becomes giant desert ruled by outlaw motorcycle gangs.
2. The giant Tesla ball in the Museum of Science goes haywire and zaps the dinosaur fossils, causing them to come alive and rampage through the city.
3. Everyone is poor and miserable. (I.e. a recession)

So, while you wait for that fun phone call from your bankruptcy attorney, take comfort in the fact that a day at Fenway Park will only cost you $127.75, lukewarm Bud Lights and e-coli dogs included!  Just like last year!

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By Jimmy, 11/9/2008 11:31 pm

The weakness that perhaps ultimately led to the demise of the 2008 Boston Red Sox was the lack of quality bats on the bench.  We had Alex Cora, Kevin Cash, and Mark Kotsay (I’m not considering Coco Crisp a bench player in 2008).  Those guys are decent defensive replacements, but being forced to watch the three of them try to produce runs was akin the treatment William Wallace received once the English got their filthy hands on him.  And then we have “The Mayor”.  Hey, I like Sean Casey.  He is, by all accounts, the nicest person ever to breathe oxygen.  In history.  If you were read any quote about Mr. Casey from a fellow player or coach, you’d think they were speaking about a cross between Martin Luther King and Lance Armstrong.  When Jesus Christ stubs his toe, he shouts out: “Sean Casey!”.  Etcetera.

It is therefore with great regret that I have to say this: Casey was a complete and total waste of a roster spot this year.  It never makes sense to carry a guy on the bench who can only play first base, especially if that guy has major health problems and cannot hit for power.  This all amounts to a very weak bench, one that the Red Sox cannot afford to have while playing close to $30,000,000 per year on Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew, two productive but injury prone players.

One clear solution is to acquire outfielder Rocco Baldelli, a situation which seemingly fits both sides.  Rocco is a local product, a Rhode Islander to be exact.  While he’s definitely not the 5-tool phenom he was in his early years, his recent health problems (which are hopefully in the rear view mirror) could cause the free-agent outfielder to be acquired at a discount.  He bats from the right side of the plate, which would made him the perfect counterpart to J.D. Drew, a player who will sometimes convalesce on the bench when the Sox face tough left-handed pitching.  Not to mention, unlike 4th outfielder Mark Kotsay, Rocco can actually…you know…hit.  Especially against lefties (an .841 career OPS vs LHP).

While Rocco seems like the perfect fit, let’s talk about his medical condition.  Actually, you know what?  Let’s not.  Because, I don’t know the first thing about mitochondrial disease.  According to things I’ve read, I’m not alone in that department.  It is the stuff of House, M.D., a mysterious affliction causing the type of bewilderment that was probably experienced by the New York Yankees’ doctors 75 years ago. Rocco could be a relatively cheap gamble, but he will be a risky one.

The Sox are performing their due diligence.  Rocco’s acquisition would mean that one of Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury is expendable, and the pieces of the 2009 puzzle would begin to come together.

Next Up:

Top 5 Boston Outfield Prospects.

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By Jimmy, 11/3/2008 10:01 am

As our nation approaches an Election Day which will be remembered throughout history, there are two choices in front of us.  One is old, unreliable, and is essentially a giant heaping of “more of the same”.  He’s done courageous things in the past, but we cannot use his past heroics to predict his future performance.  The other candidate is a young, fresh faced newcomer who will bring hope and change to the most important position.  He’s drawn rave reviews from everyone who has worked with him, and although we’re not sure how well he’ll perform at the highest level, we can be reasonably certain he will be an improvement over what we’ve seen.

I’m speaking, of course, of the Red Sox catching situation.

Look, I’m not one of those people who will completely discount Jason Varitek’s pitch calling abilities, especially in the face of overwhelming anecdotal evidence from fellow players and coaches.  I just think that the actual on-field impact of those abilities is vastly overrated by some, including (most importantly) Varitek’s agent, Scott Boras.  On April 11 of next year, Varitek will turn 36 years old, which is relatively ancient for Major League catchers.  I don’t need to explain to you how he has regressed offensively over the past 3 years, and it doesn’t take a Magic 8-Ball to predict that this trend will likely not be reversed.

Aside from Varitek, there has been a short list of veteran catchers who have been proposed as possible targets for Theo Epstein.  Pudge Rodriguez, Bengie Molina…the names read like a cast list from Night of 1,000 Corpses.  None of these guys are much of an improvement, and if the Sox wish to go the aging veteran route, they might as well just overpay for Varitek again and at least enjoy the benefit of stability.

On the other hand, the organization has Dusty Brown at their disposal, a guy in AAA who plays excellent defense and has shown impressive plate discipline.  According to the Minor League Equivalency calcualtor at minorleaguesplits.com, Dusty’s 2008 MLE was .253/.323/.402.  While the MLE system is a fringe science, a defensive catcher who can give you a 720 OPS at the Major League level is a valuable commodity.

We need to accept that Mike Piazza circa 1998 is not available to the Red Sox.  The best, most reasonable scenario is for the team to play a “catch and throw” guy who can be expected to reach base in 32-35% of his plate appearances.  Fortunately, the organization has that guy.  Why not kick the tires and see what he can do?  Why not save $10,000,000 and use it to pursue other ventures?

We should be grateful for what Jason Varitek has given the Boston Red Sox.  He’s been one of the best 21st century catchers in the American League, and he’s been the leader of the franchise during their most triumphant time.  Those days shouldn’t be forgotten.  Alas, they are gone and they are not coming back.  It’s time to close that door and open a new one.