In an effort to save time (and because the crop is extremely top-heavy at both positions), I’m combining the Red Sox prospect ranking of first basemen and third baseman.  In case you missed them, check out the rankings of outfield prospects and catching prospects in the Boston minor league system.

Let’s get down to business:

1) Lars Anderson (1B)
Age: 21
2008 Level: AA

No surprises here.  Lars in generally considered the top prospect in the entire minor league system, and one of the top offensive prospects in all of baseball.  Last season, the big question was whether he hit after being promoted from the launching pad environment in Lancaster to the unforgiving tundra that is Portland, and he responded by dominating the Eastern League (.316/.436/.526) at the age of 20.

He still needs to develop some power to go along with his massive frame, and he still has trouble making contact, but these issues tend to fix themselves as hitters mature.  As with any prospect, Anderson should not be considered a sure thing (i.e., the team should not be basing their current free-agent decisions on what Anderson might become). That being said, the ceiling for Lars is superstardom, and he could arrive as early as 2010.  Hell, Boston already has a park named after him.

2) Michael Almanzar (3B)
Age: 17
2008 Level: Low A

The kid who received the highest bonus for an international free agent in the history of the Boston Red Sox ($1.5 million) wasted no time impressing scouts by hitting .348/.414./472 in the Gulf Coast League debut last season.  He was then promoted to Low-A Greenville, where he appeared to be overmatched by the much-older competition.  He’s a raw pedrigree, and needs to develop both physically and on the field, but he’s another guy who has the frame and the swing to become an elite offensive player.  He’ll repeat Low-A, and his performance bears watching.

3) Will Middlebrooks (3B)
Age: 20
2008 Level: SS-A

A much more polished and well-rounded player than Almanzar, but his ceiling is lower and he’s three years older.  Middlebrooks is a tremendously versatile athlete who can run, throw, and hit.  He initially struggled in his professional debut at Lowell, but seemed to come into his own after the All-Star Break, hitting .298/.353/.468.  It will be interesting to see how the Greenville Drive roster is constructed, as both Middlebrooks and Almanzar appear to be groomed for third base.  I suppose you could take a chance and try Middlebrooks in High-A Salem, but he’s raw for the Carolina League and might be overmatched.  We’ll see how the Sox play it.

4) Anthony Rizzo (1B)
Age: 19
2008 Level: Low-A

The 6th round draft pick from 2007 got everyone’s attention by busting out of the gate in 2008, hitting .373/.402/.446 before being diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in May.  The belief was that Rizzo would make a full recovery after 6-8 months of treatment. Since he’s been out of the public eye during his recovery, little is known regarding his progress.  We’re working under the assumption that the early prognosis was accurate, and Rizzo will be able to take the field in the spring of 2009.  Rizzo projects to be a decent all-around first baseman, handy with the glove and the bat.

5) Aaron Bates (1B)
Age: 24
2008 Level: AA

A few paragraphs above, I mentioned that this crop of prospects is extremely top-heavy.  Here’s a perfect example, as the difference in value and talent drops precipitously from #3 to #5.  There was a time when Bates was considered a solid first base prospect, but now it appears that his monster offensive season in 2007 might have been smoke-and-mirrors, a function of the hitter-friendly park and Bates’ advanced age.  His one area of strength is plate discipline, and he still has some power potential, but Bates is well below guys like Chris Carter and Jeff Bailey on the 1B organizational depth chart.  His ceiling is that of an “AAAA” auxiliary bat, and he still has some work to do to get there.

Next up, we’ll tackle middle infielders, before ending the prospect rankings with the pitchers.